It's important to remember that, whatever the clever quip says, statistics don't really lie themselves -- it's people that add the lies into their motivated interpretation of the statistics. Much of the time, this comes in the form of people skipping ahead several steps and reaching conclusions of their choosing among a wider array of possible interpretations of the stats.
But that doesn't mean you should ignore the statistics altogether.
Fair enough. I'm certainly not ignoring the numbers, just a bit alarmed by what people are concluding from them.
Randy Moss' catch rate through the first four games is 42%. While this is a sample size of only 1/4 of the season, a decline that steep from his average with Brady (61%) and his career average outside of Oakland (59%) should not be written off to standard variation without justifying that conclusion.
In other words, writing off Moss' decline in catch rate to sample size without first verifying that he has had similar 4-game stretches of under-average performance in the past is just as much of an unfounded conclusion as people who are assuming that his catch rate will stay around 40% this season. Admittedly, I've only given his game logs a cursory glance, but no similar four game slump in his career w/ Brady has jumped out at me.
Regarding similar sample sizes, I'd first argue it's really a 3-game stretch since he caught 5 of 8 passes in week 1, good for 63% of targets. The number of targets and catches also project to around his career averages (based on the small sample size of 1 game!). But if we look at 4-game stretches, there are a few.
2009 was a pretty solid year for Moss, but between NFL weeks 11 to 14 (starting with the second Jets game), Moss caught only 11 passes out of 26 targets, 42%. He did separate a shoulder at some point, but not sure when or how long it lasted.
2008 might be unfair since Cassel was at the helm, but weeks 11 to 14 again saw Moss catch 11 passes out of 25 targets, 44%.
Even the record-setting 2007 featured a similar period in terms of catches per targets near the end of the year, with a 6-game stretch resulting in 32 passes out of 67 targets, 48%.
None of this confirms or denies that Moss may be done or Moss may have a lot left. But I feel 4 games are not enough to conclude either way.
A further reason to suspect a factor beyond statistical variance is the number of dropped passes that have been credited to Moss so far -- an NFL-leading 5. Now, admittedly, dropped passes is a partially subjective stat, but, in the interest of fairness, the STATS Inc. game charters make a point of giving receivers the benefit of the doubt, and only awarding drops on the most obviously catchable passes. Moss 5 obvious drops through four games is, I believe, more than he had through 16 games in 2007 and 2009... and we haven't even played a game in bad weather yet.
This was the most disturbing thing about Moss this season, and it really annoyed me. Drop numbers seem more difficult to find for past seasons, though I read Moss had 6 drops in 2007 and last year had 7 (though I also read 9 for 2009). Based on so few targets, 5 drops is alarming, but then again, Welker is tied for 4th in drops with 3.
Added to the drop in general catch rate, even though the sample size is only four games, Moss would already need to have an unprecedented -- even for him -- final 12 games of the season in order to finish the year tied with his averages with Brady. This, again, argues against Moss' statistical downturn being attributable to variance.
I don't think he would ever catch up to his averages with Brady simply because the offense has changed. The integration of the tight ends as well as more emphasis on the running game and the emergence of Tate meant fewer targets for Moss and Welker, and the numbers reflect that even for Welker, though he's caught a similar percentage of passes.
Also, I've seen arguments that a few bad passes from Brady could enough to account for Moss' sub-par showing. First, let's remember that since we're mostly comparing these four games in 2010 to Moss' 32 prior games with Tom Brady, the quarterbacks relative talent for throwing the deep ball is a constant. Let's also note that the quarterback in question is completing passes above his already-impressive completion percentage in his years with Moss, and also, most importantly, is not targeting Moss for a higher percentage of "bomb" passes than in years past, but simply completing fewer of them. Let's also remember that just as a receiver's ability to catch the ball is affected by the quarterbacks passes, the quarterback's passes are equally influenced by the receiver's ability to get separation. If a receiver has good separation at the time of the pass, a QB can hit him on the shoulder. If the receiver has only half a step, the QB needs to overthrow him, and hope he can catch up to the pass.
I would keep the sample size in mind. Week 2 and week 4 were awful performances, no argument there. Week 1 wasn't that bad, and in week 3, he only received 3 targets, but he caught 2, both for touchdowns.
While he hasn't had a huge game this season, it's also worth noting he never caught more than 5 balls or gained more than 75 yards in the last 7 games of the 2009 season.
So basically, what all of this adds up to is that Moss' sub-par play through four games, while not enough to dismiss him altogether, is certainly cause to be cautiously worried if you're relying on him for the rest of the season, and something that would clearly factor into BB's decision to trade him.
I agree with this conclusion 100%.