the light dawns
====================
As with Deon, the patriots can allow Mankins' agent to go to teams and secure a contract of at least a certain value (say a 2nd), perhaps at first restricting the choices to the NFC or not. This way Mankins can choose the team. The incentive to Mankins is that he will go to a team of HIS choosing, and will be able to pre-negotiate a deal with a new team. Once all are agreed, the tender will be signed, the trade made, and the tendered contract torn up for a new contract. Alternatively, the patriots would sign Mankins to the new deal and trade him. The result is the same.
Mankins would do this to get his contract this year and would play all of this year for his new team. The patriots would do it to get a 2011 2nd or 3rd round draft choice and get the issue behind them before the season starts. I would presume that we would use a 2nd on on OG in 2011 in almost any case.
=======================
If some lights were to dawn here it would be nothing short of miraculous...
Mankins is demanding a trade. He says he is done here. He can stay away until the proverbial cows come home and all the leverage in this situation remains with the team that was trying in good faith to sign him to a long term deal unless they decide to relinquish it at some point if they decide that is where the value lies. They are under no obligation to, however. In fact they can force him to sign his tender before they even consider it. Bill is on record saying he personally isn't comfortable talking trade regarding an unsigned player. Branch was under contract. If not, the player will either show up eventually and play like the probowler he supposedly is or further damage his chances of ever seeing a top of the market deal.
The folly of the Branch decision likely wasn't lost on this team or the other 31 teams who witnessed it's aftermath. Even an unhappy Branch could have accomplished more here in the last several weeks of the 2006 season than he has in the last 4 years in Seattle. If Belichick feels Mankins late season insurance value exceeds his trade value, and a second rounder in a shallow draft isn't hard to exceed, he won't go down that road again. Investing top of the market dollars in a guy you've never had the pleasure of working with whose own draft team wasn't comfortable investing that heavily in him and is therefore parting with him on the eve of a season absent an offseason to assimilate often turns out to be a fools game. Let alone on the eve of a potential work stoppage. Half of Logan's potential suitors are presently embroiled in their own RFA and/or unhappy with my rookie deal holdout threats.
Mankins overplayed his hand badly and now has no remaining leverage beyond showing up and attempting to disrupt the locker room. If he doesn't show up he can't leverage even that. Bill will continue to talk about the guys who are under contract. His teamates will continue to inform the media as they did this week that they have enought to worry about without commenting on guys who aren't here...If he does show up he either plays well or further damages his own career earnings potential and risks alienating his own teamates.
Guys generally stay out of each others business for a reason. They empathize on some level and even though your absence may impact them they respect your right to do what you have to do...to a point. Push your agenda past that point at their expense, like by becoming a divisive force or deliberately dogging it, and now you're messing with their ability to earn a living... Just ask Albert Haynesworth's teamates how much remaining empathy they feel for him.
Bill knew the nexus of Branch's agents belief he could get his deal was tampering related. He had no intention of trading Branch absent a replacement, he thought he would teach him a market value lesson that would force him to report and chose to play chicken with the JETS to that end because he probably believed given their own cap troubles that season they had no intention of doing anything beyond poisoning the well here. But there is always one rebel in the group and Seattle jumped into the fray and by offering a first for Branch forced Bill's hand. He still wasn't inclined to trade him but the threat of a grievance left him little choice. Sometimes Bill miscalculates. He seldom makes the same mistake twice. I remember Brady commenting at the time that by that point he was disappointed with both sides. He was supportive of Branch's desire to get paid, but he was disappointed that he took it to such an extreme that it couldn't ultimately be worked out here.
Mankins teamates will come to feel similarly. They'd rather see him paid here, but not at their expense. They got their own careers and contracts to worry about in an uncertain environment. Kaczur could get a new lease on life as a starting guard, Koppen and Light could find themselves more attractive extension prospects for continuity sake. After patiently waiting for everyone else to be dealt with, Tommy could end up getting his deal done sooner rather than later given the fact that Mankins thumbed his nose at top 5 guard money. Teams move on, life goes on.
If Mankins is still available in October (or September or August) any team he's traded to won't be bestowing $20M+ in guarantees or a double digit signing bonus on him. They would more likely offer him a small signing bonus and substantial 2010 salary and a 2011 option triggered deal that kicks in if there is a season that year (and they've decided by then he's worth it...). His deal in a trade will be impacted by both the draft or other compensation a trading partner has to cough up and the specter of a lockout. He was available to the highest bidder and free to discuss his requirements with anyone from the start of the league year until about two weeks ago, and nobody was willing to sign him to an offer sheet or even express public interest - and that was before they found out he wanted top of the market or he'd take his ball and go home - although his agent let the world know from the moment he was tagged he was so mad he couldn't see straight. Had there been significant interest I'm pretty sure Mr. Bauer would have informed the world of that, too. He is now the one who needs a trade to happen sooner than later or his long awaited commission is gonna take a big hit.
Good luck with that since after next week the entire league disappears as if swallowed up by the Bermuda triangle for a month long pre TC vacation. Even most football mediots go on hiatus for that reason. This team will almost certainly use that time as a cooling off period in case Mankins has a change of ...principle. Immediately thereafter teams go into personal pre season overdrive, signing top rookies, opening camp, installing their offense and defense largely taught during OTA's, evaluating their rosters. Eventually they get around to weeding out dead wood and signing players to fill voids and hoping they can get up to speed in a new system and scheme absent an entire offseason in a new playbook.
