Post-Week 15 AFC Playoff Picture - Pats take 3rd seed [merged]

[supafly]

Steelers playoff scenario: per steelerdepot.com

Pretty much all I said in post 72 is true with the exception of HOU, and another and/or scenario involving DEN/BAL. I was figuring it out off the top of my head but here is the 'official' scenario--which is QUITE possible, considering they win out. The reason I am interested mostly is because I do not want to have to face them.

I thought it was damn near impossible for them, but in actuality it is somewhat realistic, as I think they will now have some momentum realizing that they're a lot more 'in it' than they thought last week when everyone was pitifully dejected.

courtesy of steelerdepot.com:

"Here is the long and short of what the Steelers need in the Wild Card Playoff Scenarios following the week 15 win versus the Packers. First, the Steelers must win out versus Baltimore and Miami. Next, the Jets and Jaguars must lose or tie at least one of their remaining games. Lastly, the Broncos must lose one more game OR Baltimore must lose week 17 to Oakland."

----------------------

So they don't need as much help as I originally thought. If JAX loses to us, and IND beats the NYJ next week, all they'll need to do is root for DEN to lose (they play PHI next week)..OR..BAL to lose week 17 to OAK. Not nearly as hard as I first thought. I hope if they do get in, it's at #6, and we're a #4 so we can avoid them.

 

[Kulko]

Ok, thats the Tie Breaking Picture, if We and Cincy win out and AD loses out:

Scenario 1:
NE and CIN win out, SD looses out:
1. Record:
All 11-5

2. Head to Head
Not applicable as NE didnt Play the other two

3. Conf record
All 8-4


4. Common Games
Not applicable, as there are less then 4 common games

5. SOV
NE: 69-86 (including the TEN Win against SD)
Cin: 62-92
SD: 71-84 (including Cin at 11-5 and not the result of MNF)

Looking at this figures, I would guess Cin has no real chance to win the #2, but crosschecking all remaining schedules was too much to ask for.
SD has the edge to beat us in that scenario, but a two game swing is not much to ask for.

Scenario 2:
We win out, and SD loses out. Cin drops one more game

IF CIN does not win out, we do have 5 common games with SD:
Bal (NE 1-0, SD 0-1)
MIA (NE 1-1, SD 1-0)
DEN (NE 0-1, SD 1-1)
TEN (NE 1-0, SD 0-1)
Sum: NE 3-2, SD 2-3

Thus we gain The #2 for sure in this scenario.

Scenario 3:
And in the unlikely scenario, that SD does not drop its last two just to make room for us, here is the tie-breaker Scenario between NE and CIN:

Conf Record:
NE 6-4 Cin 6-4 Will always be tied, when record is tied

Common Games
NE 2-2, Hou remaining
CIN 2-2 Jets rmaining

SOV
We are 2-7 games ahead, depending on which games are won.

Conclusio:
That one still has a bit more uncertainty.
If we tie at 11-5 we have the 7 games advantage in SOV
If we tie at 10-6 either of us can win by the Common games tiebreaker.
If we tie at 9-7 and still are both Division winners, then we hold a 3-game advantage in the SOV tiebreaker (two plus the Jets win over Cincy)

EDIT: All SOV numbers are based on the information provided by NovaScotiaPatsFan. I just added the "known" resulst of the upcoming games to the equation

 

[ivanvamp]

The AFC is a complete mess. Could be made much easier if both Denver
and Baltimore win out and both go 10-6. But I don't see that
happening. So here's my question. Let's say Pittsburgh wins out,
which would include a win over Baltimore, and Denver loses at Philly
then beats KC. All 3 teams would finish 9-7. Let's, for the sake of
this discussion, leave out every other 7-7 team.

Among the 3 teams, here's how they fared versus each other:

Baltimore (2-1) - beat Pit, Den; lost to Pit
Pittsburgh (2-1) - beat Bal, Den; lost to Bal
Denver (0-2) - lost to Bal, Pit

So conventional wisdom would dictate that both Baltimore and
Pittsburgh would make the playoffs, with Denver out. However, from
(NFL 2009 Playoff Race - CBSSports.com
explanation), check this out:

"TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM OR AMONG DIVISION WINNERS
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs
from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie
breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following
steps.
...
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are
eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club
format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked
club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original
seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker
remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that
are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants."

So, from this, you'd first have to eliminate either Baltimore or
Pittsburgh from the equation, because they're from the same division.
The team that emerges from between those two would make the playoffs,
as would Denver, being the non-eliminated team using this procedure.

So to recap: let's assume a 3-team race between Bal, Pit, and Den.
Baltimore and Pittsburgh play once more. If Pittsburgh beats
Baltimore and wins its finale against Miami, all Denver needs to do is
beat KC (or Philly...but more likely KC) and they're in at 9-7, in
this scenario. And if Baltimore beats Pittsburgh, all Denver needs to
do is beat KC and they're in at 9-7, because Pittsburgh cannot do
better than 8-8.

In other words, unless one of the other 7-7 teams goes undefeated in
the last two (and it's a strange, incestual schedule the rest of the
way among AFC playoff contenders so who knows), all Denver would need
to do is beat KC and they're pretty much in.

Do I have this right?

 

[Kulko]

So, from this, you'd first have to eliminate either Baltimore or
Pittsburgh from the equation, because they're from the same division.
The team that emerges from between those two would make the playoffs,
as would Denver, being the non-eliminated team using this procedure.

So to recap: let's assume a 3-team race between Bal, Pit, and Den.
Baltimore and Pittsburgh play once more. If Pittsburgh beats
Baltimore and wins its finale against Miami, all Denver needs to do is
beat KC (or Philly...but more likely KC) and they're in at 9-7, in
this scenario. And if Baltimore beats Pittsburgh, all Denver needs to
do is beat KC and they're in at 9-7, because Pittsburgh cannot do
better than 8-8.

In other words, unless one of the other 7-7 teams goes undefeated in
the last two (and it's a strange, incestual schedule the rest of the
way among AFC playoff contenders so who knows), all Denver would need
to do is beat KC and they're pretty much in.

Do I have this right?

No fortunately you have not.

The procedure is like that:

Step 1: find best team in the AFCN (lets assume PIT)
Step 2: Tiebreak PIT-DEN on Head to Head
Pitsburg is in.

Now start from the beginning with all the remaining teams (BAL, DEN)
Step1: nothing to do
Step 2: BAL wins on H2H.
BAL is in.

 

[ivanvamp]

No fortunately you have not.

The procedure is like that:

Step 1: find best team in the AFCN (lets assume PIT)
Step 2: Tiebreak PIT-DEN on Head to Head
Pitsburg is in.

Now start from the beginning with all the remaining teams (BAL, DEN)
Step1: nothing to do
Step 2: BAL wins on H2H.
BAL is in.

It seems that the rule I cited has it just the opposite of how you have it. But I confess that this is very confusing. But basically what you're saying is that Denver needs to win both games in order to realistically have a shot, since they lose the tiebreakers to both Pit and Bal.

 

[Kulko]

From NFL.com:

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

I read this as: When the first WC is spotted, look at all tied teams again, then find the Division "winners" and then break the tie between these teams for the second WC.

 

[Kulko]

Scenario 1:
NE and CIN win out, SD looses out:

Looking at this figures, I would guess Cin has no real chance to win the #2, but crosschecking all remaining schedules was too much to ask for.
SD has the edge to beat us in that scenario, but a two game swing is not much to ask for.

Got another idea and used the Pro-Football Forecaster to find out what happens in the other games. If it comes to SOV between NE and SD he puts the chances 83-17 against us. and Cincys Chances at 0%.

 

[SoCalPatsfan90]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

I just don't want to play SD in SD. Any scenario that avoids that is okay with me.

From a fans perspective... living in SoCal, I'd love to see them come here... But then I'd have to find the money to go... Last playoff game cost me 700$ for 2 tickets 39yd line, patriots side, row 1 I just don't have that kind of scratch layin' around now...

 

[Bill B.]

One difference between the third and fourth seed. Third seed has a better shot at home field in the AFCCG than the fourth seed. #3 wins wildcard and beats #2, and either # 5 or #4 beat #1, #3 gets home. If you are #4, you need #6 beats to beat #3 then #1.

 

[Patsguy05]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

Okay, that's only partially correct. Bengals no longer have a shot at the #2 seed. And if the Patriots and Bengals both win out, it will come down to strength of victory which no one knows yet. Also, Texans, Jets, and Jaguars are still alive.

Pats win the strength of victory. .424 vs .413

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I don't get why we're so worked up over maybe landing the third seed. It gives us a minor statistical chance of playing the AFCCG at home, but I think if you sit down and calculate the probabilities of that, they are pretty slim, approaching 10% or less.

More importantly, I want the fourth seed. It means if we win a smash mouth Wild Card Game in Foxboro against the Bengals, Broncos or Ravens, we go into Indy with some attitude and play them coming off a bye week after having had nothing to play for for a full month. Plus, if they have the added pressure of being undefeated at that time, I like that matchup.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I don't get why we're so worked up over maybe landing the third seed. It gives us a minor statistical chance of playing the AFCCG at home, but I think if you sit down and calculate the probabilities of that, they are pretty slim, approaching 10% or less.

More importantly, I want the fourth seed. It means if we win a smash mouth Wild Card Game in Foxboro against the Bengals, Broncos or Ravens, we go into Indy with some attitude and play them coming off a bye week after having had nothing to play for for a full month. Plus, if they have the added pressure of being undefeated at that time, I like that matchup.

My sentiments exactly. Unless we can get the #2 seed by SD losing their last two (forget about it), then we want the #4 seed, not #3. #4 matches up at #1 Indy, where we've proven that we're competitive; whereas #3 matches up at #2 San Diego, which is less desirable for us.

Indy off a bye week and no pressure for a month is the best time to catch them. I think San Diego is more vulnerable under the pressure of an AFCC title game - plus there's always a chance that they get knocked off in their 1st game.

 

[upstater1]

I don't get why we're so worked up over maybe landing the third seed. It gives us a minor statistical chance of playing the AFCCG at home, but I think if you sit down and calculate the probabilities of that, they are pretty slim, approaching 10% or less.

More importantly, I want the fourth seed. It means if we win a smash mouth Wild Card Game in Foxboro against the Bengals, Broncos or Ravens, we go into Indy with some attitude and play them coming off a bye week after having had nothing to play for for a full month. Plus, if they have the added pressure of being undefeated at that time, I like that matchup.

I would not discount the AFCCG at home scenario. You say the chances are pretty slim, but 50% of that scenario comes true if the Patriots advance to the AFCCG--so the chances increase dramatically with that one factor alone. If the Patriots lose that second game, all of this is moot regardless.

So really the only think that would need to happen for the Patriots to host the AFCCG other than the Patriots advancing is for Cincy or Baltimore to beat Indy at Inday.

A tall order, yes, but not beyond the realm of comprehension. Baltimore could Ray Rice Indy to death.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I would not discount the AFCCG at home scenario. You say the chances are pretty slim, but 50% of that scenario comes true if the Patriots advance to the AFCCG--so the chances increase dramatically with that one factor alone. If the Patriots lose that second game, all of this is moot regardless.

So really the only think that would need to happen for the Patriots to host the AFCCG other than the Patriots advancing is for Cincy or Baltimore to beat Indy at Inday.

A tall order, yes, but not beyond the realm of comprehension. Baltimore could Ray Rice Indy to death.

Disagree. I'd rather have our destiny in our hands against Indy, which I think will be vulnerable after a month without playing for anything and a week off, esp with the pressure of being undefeated. I don't want to play Indy in the AFCCG after they've had a week to shake off the rust and realize they're on the verge of the SB.

And, I don't like the chances of Cincy or Baltimore beating a seasoned Indy team in the Division Round; neither of these teams has "been there" on the big stage in a long time.

The Bengals haven't been to the Playoffs since 2005 when they were one and done (their only appearance since 1990). They should have beaten the Chargers yesterday, but gave it up at the end.

The Ravens have a history of not beating big teams in big games [see last year when they couldn't get a W against a strong Steelers team in three games--and also see this year in Foxboro when they came in undefeated to make a statement and couldn't, sending them into a tailspin for a month--for whatever reason, they are not a big game team--in their recent games they've only beaten the reeling Steelers with Dennis Dixon at QB (still needing to go to OT at home!), the Bears, the Browns and the Lions, losing to Cincy, Indy and Green Bay.

So, the odds of the AFCCG being in Foxboro are no doubt theoretically measurable, but barely.

 

[upstater1]

Disagree. I'd rather have our destiny in our hands against Indy, which I think will be vulnerable after a month without playing for anything and a week off, esp with the pressure of being undefeated. I don't want to play Indy in the AFCCG after they've had a week to shake off the rust and realize they're on the verge of the SB.

And, I don't like the chances of Cincy or Baltimore beating a seasoned Indy team in the Division Round; neither of these teams has "been there" on the big stage in a long time.

The Bengals haven't been to the Playoffs since 2005 when they were one and done (their only appearance since 1990). They should have beaten the Chargers yesterday, but gave it up at the end.

The Ravens have a history of not beating big teams in big games [see last year when they couldn't get a W against a strong Steelers team in three games--and also see this year in Foxboro when they came in undefeated to make a statement and couldn't, sending them into a tailspin for a month--for whatever reason, they are not a big game team--in their recent games they've only beaten the reeling Steelers with Dennis Dixon at QB (still needing to go to OT at home!), the Bears, the Browns and the Lions, losing to Cincy, Indy and Green Bay.

So, the odds of the AFCCG being in Foxboro are no doubt theoretically measurable, but barely.

I definitely think Indy isn't as dominant as you seem to. They are 14-0 indeed, but a good running team can damage them badly.

 

[makewayhomer]

the reason the #3 seed is better than the #4 is that the #6 seed should be a clear level down from the #5 (Baltimore)

Baltimore is a clear level above the Denver / Houston / Pittsburgh / Miami / NYJ tier of teams. this year they have lost a few close games that came down to 1 or 2 plays (ie could have gone either way) and are 4th in the NFL in point differential. their 2009 results are way better than any of the other WC contenders.

also, I think Indy is the best team in the AFC, and you would rather avoid them for as long as possible. by taking the #3 seed it means you don't have to play them until the AFCCG, and after the divisional round there is a significant chance Indy will no longer be alive. this may not be a big chance, but it's non zero enough to matter. Indy might beat Cinci at home 75% of the time or something like that? but hey 25% of the time there is a big upset and now Indy is gone. you would rather have that 25% chance than go right to Indy

The Ravens have a history of not beating big teams in big games [see last year when they couldn't get a W against a strong Steelers team in three games--and also see this year in Foxboro when they came in undefeated to make a statement and couldn't, sending them into a tailspin for a month--for whatever reason, they are not a big game team--in their recent games they've only beaten the reeling Steelers with Dennis Dixon at QB (still needing to go to OT at home!), the Bears, the Browns and the Lions, losing to Cincy, Indy and Green Bay.

this is basically wrong at face value. the Ravens won 2 playoff games last year!! they lost @ the best team in the NFL in a close AFCG, ok? I guess you can keep saying things like "they don't win big games" as long as your definition of a big game is a moving target you never really define. are you really saying that playing @ the 14-2 Titans in the divisional round wasn't "a big game vs a big team" ? do they have to win the AFCCG to shake this label? win the SB? win multiple SB's?

 

[ivanvamp]

I definitely think Indy isn't as dominant as you seem to. They are 14-0 indeed, but a good running team can damage them badly.

You don't get to 14-0 without being a fantastic team. Take nothing away from Indy...they've been tremendous. But a closer look reveals a lot of chinks in that armor.

Consider:

- They have a top 5 offense and defense in terms of scoring (#4 offense, #5 defense), but their defense is #17 in yards allowed. They've been pretty good, but not tremendous.

- They are the #12 team in yardage differential. Again, that's good, but not dominant.

- They have won 7 of their 14 games by 4 points or fewer:

- Wk 1, beat Jax 14-12
- Wk 2, beat Mia 27-23
- Wk 8, beat SF 18-14
- Wk 9, beat Hou 20-17
- Wk 10, beat NE 35-34
- Wk 11, beat Bal 17-15
- Wk 15, beat Jax 35-31

That's a lot of close shaves. So while they're definitely doing what it takes to win, they've gotten some big breaks along the way (in the Hou and NE games, they got ridiculous PI calls that were huge).

I don't know if you can continue to keep winning games by the skin of your teeth. Other games that were pretty close - closer than the score indicated - were the Denver game (28-16) and the second Houston game (35-27). That's 9 out of the 14 games that were pretty much dogfights.

So kudos to the Colts for winning every game thus far. I think at some point, it's gonna catch up to them and a team that hangs around with them will make a play to beat them.

 

[makewayhomer]

You don't get to 14-0 without being a fantastic team. Take nothing away from Indy...they've been tremendous. But a closer look reveals a lot of chinks in that armor.

Consider:

- They have a top 5 offense and defense in terms of scoring (#4 offense, #5 defense), but their defense is #17 in yards allowed. They've been pretty good, but not tremendous.

- They are the #12 team in yardage differential. Again, that's good, but not dominant.

- They have won 7 of their 14 games by 4 points or fewer:

- Wk 1, beat Jax 14-12
- Wk 2, beat Mia 27-23
- Wk 8, beat SF 18-14
- Wk 9, beat Hou 20-17
- Wk 10, beat NE 35-34
- Wk 11, beat Bal 17-15
- Wk 15, beat Jax 35-31

That's a lot of close shaves. So while they're definitely doing what it takes to win, they've gotten some big breaks along the way (in the Hou and NE games, they got ridiculous PI calls that were huge).

I don't know if you can continue to keep winning games by the skin of your teeth. Other games that were pretty close - closer than the score indicated - were the Denver game (28-16) and the second Houston game (35-27). That's 9 out of the 14 games that were pretty much dogfights.

So kudos to the Colts for winning every game thus far. I think at some point, it's gonna catch up to them and a team that hangs around with them will make a play to beat them.

while this is all true, it's also true that Indy is the best team in the AFC. anyone arguing that SD is better is ignoring that:

Indy has a PD of +146 vs +106 for SD
Indy is a top team in DVOA, SD isn't
if you want to make a case for playoff experience, edge goes to Indy
Indy has more of a HFA then SD
if Indy played SD on a neutral field, there is no way SD would be favored

 

[italian pat patriot]

a game @ Foxboro against Denver would be ok for me but for the moment we are have not yet reached the play-offs

so let's think about Jax and try to beat them

 

[makewayhomer]

a game @ Foxboro against Denver would be ok for me but for the moment we are have not yet reached the play-offs

so let's think about Jax and try to beat them

I'm pretty sure what we think about has no affect on the team or their results

if you don't want to think about it, ok, but as a fan it's silly to "concentrate" on something else