Post-Week 15 AFC Playoff Picture - Pats take 3rd seed [merged]

[Patriot Missile]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

I'd love to be able to topple the defending champs, San Diego and the Colts in one playoff run. That would be almost as good as taking out the co-mvps back to back in 03.

 

[SVN]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

I'm still confused how the undefeated Colts with Peyton Manning is an easier option then the Chargers.

probably because of the familiarity and the fact that the chargers D is lot more disruptive than the colts..

 

[mgteich]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

I just want us to win next week and rest our starters in Week 16, creating our own bye week.

i don't understand why folks are so obsessed with the seeding when we have no control over it and we have our work cut out for us the next two weeks. whatever seed we end up with, the only important thing will be if we finish strong. i'm far more concerned about the quality of our play and, hopefully, W's against Jacksonville and at Houston.

a so-so finish and a number two seed is no better than a strong finish and a number four seed IMHO; what, we're all of a sudden gonna get momentum in a week off if we finish and luck into the number two seed?

let's make statements in these next two games, let's finish on a roll and let the other stuff take care of itself.

 

[wiggins!]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

WITH ALL 15 GAMES IN THE BOOKS AND 2 WEEKS TO GO:


The Chargers clinched the AFC West with their win and the Broncos' loss. They can clinch a first-round bye with a win against the Titans on Friday.

The Jets cannot win the AFC East (would lose the division record tiebreaker in 2-way tie with Patriots, or would lose head-to-head tiebreaker in 3-way tie with Patriots and Dolphins - Jets are 1-3 against those teams).

If the Dolphins finish in a 2-way or 3-way tie with the Patriots at 9-7, they would win the division (by conference record if it's a 2-way tie, and by head-to-head if its a 3-way tie with the Jets and Patriots).

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE
W-L Reason why ahead if tied
1. Colts* 14-0
2. Chargers** 11-3
3. Patriots 9-5 Higher strength of victory than CIN (through Week 15)
4. Bengals 9-5
-----------------------
5. Ravens 8-6 Beat DEN head-to-head
6. Broncos 8-6
-----------------------
7. Jaguars 7-7 3-1 vs TEN/HOU; better conference W-L than MIA, PIT
8. Dolphins 7-7 2-0 vs NYJ; better conference W-L than PIT, TEN
9. Jets 7-7 Better conference W-L than PIT (TEN: 0-2 vs NYJ, PIT)
10. Steelers 7-7 Beat TEN head-to-head
11. Titans 7-7 Better division record than HOU
12. Texans 7-7
*Colts have clinched home-field throughout AFC playoffs
**Chargers have clinched AFC West

 

[Yehoodi]

Re: Tiebreaker Vs Bengals

Thats pretty funny

i know, i am on pins and needles each we play them . . . always waiting for that call to come that will be at a key time in the game . . . it can get frustrating at times . . .

maybe we can go into indy and win this year . . . :singing:

 

[supafly]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

I have a feeling we will try to lose like other people are saying in the last week.

The #3 seed road to the superbowl:

Wildcard: Steelers
Divisional: Chargers
AFCCG: Colts

The #4 seed to the superbowl:
Wildcard: Broncos/Ravens
Divisional: Colts
AFFCCG: Chargers


The #3 seed road is one of the hardest superbowl runs to ever accomplish. The #4 isn't as bad.

I agree with you that the way you have it would be pretty damn hard, but what makes you think the #3 would have to play Pittsburgh?

Is it stands right now, the Steelers have the #10 spot, with the first 6 getting in.

I'm just curious as to how you see the #3 playing Pittsburgh--that's all. I'm not trying to be a smart-ass or anything.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

I'm still confused how the undefeated Colts with Peyton Manning is an easier option then the Chargers.

I don't necessarily know that the Colts are a better matchup, but personally as a Colts hater I would rather them have to go through both us and SD (IMO their 2 biggest threats in the playoffs) than to play a team like Cincy/Baltimore/Denver and then get the remains of whoever comes out of our match with SD.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

I agree with you that the way you have it would be pretty damn hard, but what makes you think the #3 would have to play Pittsburgh?

Is it stands right now, the Steelers have the #10 spot, with the first 6 getting in.

I'm just curious as to how you see the #3 playing Pittsburgh--that's all. I'm not trying to be a smart-ass or anything.

Yeah, Pittsburgh could finish as high as 5 and they could obvsiouly miss the playoffs altogether. So even getting the 4 seed might mean we have to play Pittsburgh.

 

[Yehoodi]

Re: Pats are Number 3 Seed Now

Not to be a party pooper, but realistically, unless we play better we're one and done anyway.

Could we really stack up against cinci or san diego? Or indy? I know we played them pretty well, but struggling against buffalo and carolina aren't really confidence building, is it?

we haven't played Cinn or SD yet, we did have indy one spot away from winning. interestingly had we had the same line judge who spotted Pierre Garcon "first down" on indy's first possession in jax thur night, we get the first down with faulk and its game set and match. interestingly it too was at the 30 yard line

 

[supafly]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

Yeah, Pittsburgh could finish as high as 5 and they could obvsiouly miss the playoffs altogether. So even getting the 4 seed might mean we have to play Pittsburgh.

PGH is going to have to get a lot of help, even if they finish at 9-7. I just read an article about it on PFT, which states that even if PGH wins out at 9-7, that it most likely won't be enough to get in.

I'm just curious as to how people are finding PGH in the playoffs. I live in PGH and all the talk right now is that even if they win out and finish at 9-7, their conference record will most likely keep them out. Last week all of the news stations, papers etc, said even if they'd win out at 9-7--they'd be done.

Now all of the sudden, I come here and people are talking about playing the Steelers. I am simply wondering how they are getting to that conclusion. Do you or anyone else have a scenario that says they could (realistically) make it? I know (mathematically) they can still get in if a ton of other teams would lose, but is there an actual scenario that's realistic.

FWIW--I don't wanna play them either, but everyone around here (PGH) says there really isn't a realistic chance.

EDIT: came up with scenario on following page, let me know what you think

 

[TriplecHamp]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

Current Strength of Victory Standings for the #3 Seed.

So we're up a game and a half, if Carolina wins tonight we'll be up 2 and if they lose we'll be up 1.

good work, so were in third?

 

[supafly]

Just to answer my own previous question regarding PGH:

The only way I see them getting in is if they'd do the following:

--obviously win out finishing at 9-7
--they'd be ahead of TEN, DEN, and MIA (considering they win out)
--they'd be behind BAL in tie-breakers, so BAL would have to lose BOTH of their last 2
--DEN would have to lose at least 1 game (quite possible, they play PHI)
--JAX has the best conference record, so they'd have to lose at least 1, if not 2, depending if there's someone in front of them at #5 or not
--TEN is the ONLY team behind PGH right now
--NYJ would have to lose at least 1
--MIA would have to lose at least 1 (they play PGH)
--HOU would have to lose at least 1

So, bottom line--right now PGH is a #10 seed, with the only other playoff contender TEN, behind them due to head to head. PGH would not only have to beat both BAL and MIA, but would need ALL of these things to happen. I just don't see PGH as any kind of realistic threat.

Does anyone see it differently, because I realize it's a cluster?

 

[Bring Back Antowain!]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

Incorrect. If the Chargers lose both and the Bengals win both, they're #2 according to NFL - Playoff Scenario Generator- Yahoo! Sports. Thanks about the Jets.

Regarding the Patriots guaranteed #3 if they win out, if the Bengals win out, they're tied, and the Playoff Scenario Generator seems to give them the #3 spot in that case.

Okay, that has to be wrong. Cincy just lost to the Chargers, and head-to-head is the #1 tiebreaker. So, the Bengals can not get the #2 seed.

 

[supafly]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

good work, so were in third?

As of right this second we are, but if we win out and CIN wins out, they regain the higher perecentage (I believe)

We'd still need CIN to lose one of their remaining games, and win out. I don't really see it as being beneficial to us at #3, it would mean IND would only have to play either us or SD--rather than both.

 

[supafly]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

Okay, that has to be wrong. Cincy just lost to the Chargers, and head-to-head is the #1 tiebreaker. So, the Bengals can not get the #2 seed.

I think they hold the TB over us if SD loses both, meaning they'd reclaim the #2.

Right now CIN holds the 4, but if they/us win out, they reclaim the 3. If SD loses out, and CIN wins out, then CIN would again regain the #2.

I think.



Put it this way--in order for us to still get the #2 (impossible, but just talking mathematically) we would need SD to lose 2, and CIN to lose 1, so yeah CIN still holds the advantage over us in the end. As of right now today, we would have the #3, but in the end if the teams both won CIN would still move ahead of us--that's why we need them to lose. (due to the formula at the top of page)

 

[TriplecHamp]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

As of right this second we are, but if we win out and CIN wins out, they regain the higher perecentage (I believe)

We'd still need CIN to lose one of their remaining games, and win out. I don't really see it as being beneficial to us at #3, it would mean IND would only have to play either us or SD--rather than both.

fahk, so what happens if were 4th, If we win our wildcard game as does Cincy do we go into Indy or SD?

 

[mgteich]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

If we are #4 (and we and cinci both win our wildcard games), we play indy the #1 seed.

fahk, so what happens if were 4th, If we win our wildcard game as does Cincy do we go into Indy or SD?

 

[supafly]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

fahk, so what happens if were 4th, If we win our wildcard game as does Cincy do we go into Indy or SD?

The lowest remaining seed always plays the highest remaining seed after the wildcard round. Even in the WC round the same logic applies cuz 3/6 and 4/5.

So, 4 would play 1, while 3 goes to 2--we'd play IND (if we're 4th)

EDIT: sorry while typing, mg already answered

 

[efin98]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

I think they hold the TB over us if SD loses both, meaning they'd reclaim the #2.

Right now CIN holds the 4, but if they/us win out, they reclaim the 3. If SD loses out, and CIN wins out, then CIN would again regain the #2.

I think.



Put it this way--in order for us to still get the #2 (impossible, but just talking mathematically) we would need SD to lose 2, and CIN to lose 1, so yeah CIN still holds the advantage over us in the end. As of right now today, we would have the #3, but in the end if the teams both won CIN would still move ahead of us--that's why we need them to lose. (due to the formula at the top of page)

Even if Cincy wins out the overall strength of schedule among the three could still favor the Patriots...we don't have theirs up so it could still be Patriots favor if Chargers lose out and their strength of schedule isn't as good as the Patriots.

Anyone doing the Pats vs. Chargers strength of schedule to compare in case Cincy loses a game?

 

[supafly]

Re: Wk 15 AFC Playoff Picture

Even if Cincy wins out the overall strength of schedule among the three could still favor the Patriots...we don't have theirs up so it could still be Patriots favor if Chargers lose out and their strength of schedule isn't as good as the Patriots.

Anyone doing the Pats vs. Chargers strength of schedule to compare in case Cincy loses a game?

Yeah, I tried to say it in my last post, but I think I even lost myself.

We will get the #2 seed IF San Diego loses both, New England wins both AND Cincinnati loses at least 1.