Post-Week 15 AFC Playoff Picture - Pats take 3rd seed [merged]

[Ring 6]

Re: Tiebreaker Vs Bengals

Going to Indy and then to San Diego is a better travel pattern than going to San Diego and then Indy. The Chargers play a more physical game than the Colts as well, which leaves more bumps and bruises.

Given their respective playoff histories, it seems more likely the Colts could lose to the other survivor of the wc round than the Chargers.
Going to SD then coming home is a good path too.

 

[makewayhomer]

Re: Tiebreaker Vs Bengals

Given their respective playoff histories, it seems more likely the Colts could lose to the other survivor of the wc round than the Chargers.

I doubt this will be true. I would bet right now that the Colts will be bigger favorites in the divisional round than the Chargers (assuming they are the #1 and #2 seeds)

(and if you don't think this is correlated to "chances of winning" then you have a big oppty in sports betting!)

 

[mgteich]

Re: Tiebreaker Vs Bengals

I agree. But I presume that you discussing the odds and NOT the point spread.

I doubt this will be true. I would bet right now that the Colts will be bigger favorites in the divisional round than the Chargers (assuming they are the #1 and #2 seeds)

(and if you don't think this is correlated to "chances of winning" then you have a big oppty in sports betting!)

 

[D-Money]

I hope the dolts rest their players!They have a history of doing that.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I definitely think Indy isn't as dominant as you seem to. They are 14-0 indeed, but a good running team can damage them badly.

i'm not sure we disagree. i think a pissed off pats team coming off a smash mouth Wild Card win in Foxboro with Maroney and Taylor running hard will take Indy coming off a bye and a month of nothing to play for. Just do to them what we did to the greatest show on turf in 2002, punch them in the face and sit on them until they cry uncle.

 

[makewayhomer]

Re: Tiebreaker Vs Bengals

I agree. But I presume that you discussing the odds and NOT the point spread.

the odds of winning outright (ie the money line) is directly correlated to the point spread. it's just a different mathematical way of expressing the same number. the only difference is really the juice that the bookie takes

ie, over all NFL games played from 1981 - 2008 (6,478 games) 7 point home favorites won 71% of the time. 9 point favorites won 79% of the time, etc. here are some common point spreads converted to win percentages:

1 point home favorite = 54% win percentage
3 point favorite = 60%
6 point favorite = 69%
7 point favorite = 71%
10 point favorite = 80%
14 point favorite = 83%

full chart at bottom (displayed as true odds)

 

[PatsFanSince74]

...

this is basically wrong at face value. the Ravens won 2 playoff games last year!! they lost @ the best team in the NFL in a close AFCG, ok? I guess you can keep saying things like "they don't win big games" as long as your definition of a big game is a moving target you never really define. are you really saying that playing @ the 14-2 Titans in the divisional round wasn't "a big game vs a big team" ? do they have to win the AFCCG to shake this label? win the SB? win multiple SB's?

No, they beat two teams that this season proved to be a lot less than they were cracked up to be last year, the Dolphins and the Titans--neither was a big time team--please don't tell me you think they were or are, as most of your posts are pretty intelligent.

And, they dropped three of three to the one big time team they played, the Steelers (and put up less than 200 yards of offense in the CG); the Steelers got a lot better game from the Cardinals in the SB.

And, yes, IMO, they have to win at least one Conference or League Championship to shake the label, but the number doesn't matter. But until they do, I stand by my statement.

This Ravens team plays with a lot of emotion and it works against them at critical times. I was amazed at their highly emotional reaction after we beat them at Foxboro, starting with the HC. Until they learn to play big games with discipline, I don't see this Ravens team coming away with a W in Indy in January.

 

[makewayhomer]

No, they beat two teams that this season proved to be a lot less than they were cracked up to be last year, the Dolphins and the Titans--neither was a big time team--please don't tell me you think they were or are, as most of your posts are pretty intelligent.

teams change from year to year. obviously the 2009 Titans and Dolphins are different from the 2008 versions of those teams. you can't just discount the Ravens wins in 2008 vs those franchises b/c of how 2009 has turned out for them with different players, injuries, schedules, etc etc. that's silly. I mean the Steelers are 7-7 this year and will probably miss the playoffs - does this mean that they "proved to be a lot less than they were cracked up to be last year"? did the Patriots 2005 season prove that 2003 and 2004 were flukes?

And, yes, IMO, they have to win at least one Conference or League Championship to shake the label, but the number doesn't matter. But until they do, I stand by my statement.

I mean, ok, but I don't think that really has any predictive value as much as it's a cute story the media perpetuates. Elway was a loser until he won. Manning was a loser until he won. Roy Williams. Jim Boeheim. the list goes on and on and on. In hindsight of course, all these media labels looks silly, and if you got to go back in time your analysis of predicting those wins would have been much more accurate if you ignored the 1 or 2 data points you are relying on and weighting more heavily everything else. every year these labels get destroyed but every year people still use them as if they have value.

 

[TruthSeeker]

I don't get why we're so worked up over maybe landing the third seed. It gives us a minor statistical chance of playing the AFCCG at home, but I think if you sit down and calculate the probabilities of that, they are pretty slim, approaching 10% or less.

More importantly, I want the fourth seed. It means if we win a smash mouth Wild Card Game in Foxboro against the Bengals, Broncos or Ravens, we go into Indy with some attitude and play them coming off a bye week after having had nothing to play for for a full month. Plus, if they have the added pressure of being undefeated at that time, I like that matchup.

Assming the Pats win twice (which is the same as the assumption that the #3 or #4 seed would make a difference), then what is needed is for the #4 seed to win both of its games for it to have made a difference. If you figure that the #4 seed is a 65% chance to win its home game and a 35% chance to win its road game, than the chances that this make a difference are .35 * .65 = .2275.

Of course, if the #5 seed beat the #4 seed and then the #1 seed, then the Patriots would still have a home game (but the Patriots would always be the home team if a wild card team were to face them in the AFC Championship).

 

[mgcolby]

Someday I might understand fandomness (word?), I love the "there is no way SD loses two" etc...

Did anyone expect Carolina to beat Minny last night? How about Oakland going into Denver and pulling out a last second win on the arm of Russell? Green Bay has been playing very good football and most expected GB to go into Pit and put them to bed and it didn't happen.

Do I think SD loses to both Ten and Washington? No, but is it impossible? No. Think about it. Ten is fighting for its playoff life, it's on a short week, SD has to travel to the other side of the country after a very hard fought game and the 21st ranked rush defense has to find a way to slow down the #2 rushing offense in the league.

Washington is interesting and we should know more tonight. New GM and no doubt a new head coach to follow, should have the players playing for their jobs, if not, then they shouldn't be in the NFL.

I think SD will lose to Ten and beat Washington and finish with the 2 seed. NE should finish with the 3rd seed, unless we see 2005 all over again and throw the last game. Even then, that might not be a guarantee with the Jets facing the Bengals in week 17.

I feel that a lot of our fans believe that the only way a team can win the Superbowl, is if a team plays a methodical, dominating brand of football for the entire season or even after Thanksgiving. That is far from the truth. Last year Pit had a terrible O-line and managed to cover it up and win it. Arizona looked like garbage in December and managed to turn it on in the playoffs. The Giants played well down the stretch of 2007 including a tough loss at home to us. The 2006 Colts went from having the 1 seed locked up to looking like they would be one and done in the playoffs after losing 4 of their last 5 regular season games. The 2005 Steelers struggled and went on to win.

It doesn’t take the 2004 mistake free football to win, is it ideal? Sure, but absolutely necessary to win? Absolutely not!

This team can beat any team in the league when healthy. Brady’s finger looks like crap, it’s twice the size of his other fingers and his fingernail was completely purple and blue, our D-line was without our two best players and we had the Bills run game in check. We have some good tests coming up. Jacksonville is a good football team and I’m glad the game is in New England, obviously MJD is having a monster season and will put a lot of pressure on our D-line and our LB’s. Garrard is a very underrated QB and if our DB’s fall asleep, he will burn them. With that said the Pats do know how to win at home and I think they win a close smash mouth game. Now, Houston will be an outstanding challenge and should be a good indicator of where this team is, heading into the playoffs (if BB chooses to not take a bye week). Houston could still be in contention for a playoff spot, the game is on the road and they have a very good aerial attack. I hope the Pats keep the pedal to the metal and look to finish both of these games strong. I don’t think a pseudo bye week will help this team.

 

[makewayhomer]

Do I think SD loses to both Ten and Washington? No, but is it impossible? No.

I prob give SD a 60% chance to LOSE in Tenn, then perhaps a 20% chance to lose to Wash, so about a 12% (60% * 20%) chance of SD losing their last 2 games. something very close to that anyways. like you said it's doubtful but stranger things have and will continue to happen..I just wouldn't count on it. but I'll hope!

 

[micronin127]

The #3 seed is better because if both the #3 and #4 advance we don't end up playing @Indy and then @Cincy.... and chances are good that San Diego would advance so we'd probably end up with @Indy followed by @San Diego if we got the #4 seed.

San Diego's receivers are really tall and that is a tough matchup for the Pats: Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd... then again Indy presents matchup problems too.

Either way we have to step up and beat a good team on the road. I prefer the higher seed only because it increases the chances of being at home for a potential AFC Championship.

 

[mgcolby]

The #3 seed is better because if both the #3 and #4 advance we don't end up playing @Indy and then @Cincy.... and chances are good that San Diego would advance so we'd probably end up with @Indy followed by @San Diego if we got the #4 seed.

San Diego's receivers are really tall and that is a tough matchup for the Pats: Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd... then again Indy presents matchup problems too.

Either way we have to step up and beat a good team on the road. I prefer the higher seed only because it increases the chances of being at home for a potential AFC Championship.

I don't see your logic? If we finish 3rd then SD would be the #2 seed. Regardless of what happens in the 4 vs 6 game, if we win, we go to SD for the divisional round.

 

[micronin127]

My logic is that trying to duck out of a game in San Diego by losing to Houston will almost certainly yield @Indy followed by @San Diego.

I would rather play the #6 seed and then head out to San Diego.

Maybe there is no real logic behind it, but given how the team has played on the road this year, I really want to see them head into Houston and show me that they can beat a quality team on the road. It's not like the team is chock full of veterans anymore and can turn it off and on, they will need another road win just to give them the confidence to beat either San Diego or Indianapolis.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Denver has a toughied in Philly this week...could very well fall out of the playoff picture after starting 6-0

The Broncos appear to be the new Dallas Cowboys in December

 

[mgcolby]

My logic is that trying to duck out of a game in San Diego by losing to Houston will almost certainly yield @Indy followed by @San Diego.

I would rather play the #6 seed and then head out to San Diego.

Maybe there is no real logic behind it, but given how the team has played on the road this year, I really want to see them head into Houston and show me that they can beat a quality team on the road. It's not like the team is chock full of veterans anymore and can turn it off and on, they will need another road win just to give them the confidence to beat either San Diego or Indianapolis.

I thought you were saying that you wanted to avoid a trip to SD by having the 3rd seed. Obviously I have reading comprehension issues.

the way I look at it, it's the playoffs. They have to be good enough to go anywhere and win, if they are not then they will be knocked out. Do I want to go to SD? Not really but given the circumstances it will most likely be in the cards and they will have to step up or step out.

 

[JR4]

1. Pats will beat Wildcard opponent
2. Pats then play Colts and win
3. PATs play Bengals for AFC Championship and win
4. PATs play Saints in Superbowl, huge underdog, and they win

= Undisputed Best Team of the decade!

 

[Feep50]

1. Pats will beat Wildcard opponent
2. Pats then play Colts and win
3. PATs play Bengals for AFC Championship and win
4. PATs play Saints in Superbowl, huge underdog, and they win

= Undisputed Best Team of the decade!

Indeed....... I like this scenario best!