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Strong 1/2 half of first round this year (link)


This draft is a lot like last year's, but with many more blue chip prospects (about half a round's worth), and about 2 rounds worth of red chip prospects. Very deep, and a lot of good players at the top.
 
His top 7 are good. After that, things fall apart.

Washington desperately needs an offensive tackle. There is no question about it.

Mays has struggled in coverage this year. He'll be in the first round off of his athleticism alone. I just don't know if he's still a top ten talent.

The Jags are bluffing. If they want Tebows intangibles, they can buy them in the second round.

Who really sees the Chargers passing up Mt. Cody for an above average WR? Me neither.

The Texans have problems with Run Blocking, not just running the ball. If you improve the first, the latter will follow. Also they need serious help in their defensive secondary. Dunta Robinson is a free agent after this season and he doesn't want to stay. AT ALL!

The Jests pick makes no sense. While they do have Kris Jenkins, (who is old), they could also have Mt. Cody. Imagine if they put Mt. Cody in the middle and Jenkins at 3-4 End. That would be scary. That makes so much sense that I know it won't happen. Now the pick makes sense. Only the Jests.

If Mt. Cody falls to the Cowboys at number 21, then one of the GM's of teams 8 - 20 should be fired. This kid is a beast. He shouldn't last this long.

The Giants have much bigger needs that DE. Antonio Pierce is getting up there and he has a bulging disk in his neck. I think they take a good long look at Brandon Spikes.

The Ravens need a corner back badly. There are not that many great corners in this draft. There are a bunch of good wide receivers. That means they should go corner in round one and wide receiver in round two. The Ravens will steal Patrick Robinson from the Eagles.

The Pittsburgh pick is just dumb. I know many teams have used a first round pick on a RB when they already had talent at the position. Usually the player that was being upgraded was selected in the 2nd round or lower. But almost never in the 1st round. That's a lot of money to devote to one position. Instead they should upgrade the offensive line. The last time I checked they got swept by the Bengals. THE BENGALS. They are the World Champion Pittsburgh Steelers (I just threw up too), that should not happen.

The Eagles lost to the Raiders for one reason: the offensive line. McNabb got sacked a bunch of times that day. They could definitely trade down and get some quality players on that line.

Spikes is not a good fit for us. He belongs on a 4-3 team that can give him adequate protection. That's why a team like the Giants makes so much sense. What doesn't make sense is for us to choose a linebacker when Guyton is playing fine, but our pass rush is lacking. FIX THE PASS RUSH!
 
His top 7 are good. After that, things fall apart.

Washington desperately needs an offensive tackle. There is no question about it.

Mays has struggled in coverage this year. He'll be in the first round off of his athleticism alone. I just don't know if he's still a top ten talent.

The Jags are bluffing. If they want Tebows intangibles, they can buy them in the second round.

Who really sees the Chargers passing up Mt. Cody for an above average WR? Me neither.

The Texans have problems with Run Blocking, not just running the ball. If you improve the first, the latter will follow. Also they need serious help in their defensive secondary. Dunta Robinson is a free agent after this season and he doesn't want to stay. AT ALL!

The Jests pick makes no sense. While they do have Kris Jenkins, (who is old), they could also have Mt. Cody. Imagine if they put Mt. Cody in the middle and Jenkins at 3-4 End. That would be scary. That makes so much sense that I know it won't happen. Now the pick makes sense. Only the Jests.

If Mt. Cody falls to the Cowboys at number 21, then one of the GM's of teams 8 - 20 should be fired. This kid is a beast. He shouldn't last this long.

The Giants have much bigger needs that DE. Antonio Pierce is getting up there and he has a bulging disk in his neck. I think they take a good long look at Brandon Spikes.

The Ravens need a corner back badly. There are not that many great corners in this draft. There are a bunch of good wide receivers. That means they should go corner in round one and wide receiver in round two. The Ravens will steal Patrick Robinson from the Eagles.

The Pittsburgh pick is just dumb. I know many teams have used a first round pick on a RB when they already had talent at the position. Usually the player that was being upgraded was selected in the 2nd round or lower. But almost never in the 1st round. That's a lot of money to devote to one position. Instead they should upgrade the offensive line. The last time I checked they got swept by the Bengals. THE BENGALS. They are the World Champion Pittsburgh Steelers (I just threw up too), that should not happen.

The Eagles lost to the Raiders for one reason: the offensive line. McNabb got sacked a bunch of times that day. They could definitely trade down and get some quality players on that line.

Spikes is not a good fit for us. He belongs on a 4-3 team that can give him adequate protection. That's why a team like the Giants makes so much sense. What doesn't make sense is for us to choose a linebacker when Guyton is playing fine, but our pass rush is lacking. FIX THE PASS RUSH!

You've got some great points, very solid post. Not a chance San Diego passes on Mt. Cody to clog up the middle for that 34 front for Merriman/English and Phillips to go to town on opposing offenses. If they added Mt. Cody and had Merriman, English, and Phillips, with Jammer, Cro, and Cason and Weddle, that is a scary defense to have to face.

As you said, Giants don't really need a DE. They have Osi, Tuck, Kiwanuka, Canty, etc. The strength of that team is its great depth on the DL. They need a LB and Spikes would be perfect for their 4-3 to replace Pierce. I could also see them looking for a safety with Kenny Phillips' future in doubt.

I could see the Ravens going for a WR like Lafell because you want to give Flacco another target. Clayton isn't much of a WR and Mason is getting up there in age at 35-36. But you can get WR's later on in the draft, and they definitely need a CB and will love to add to their defensive arsenal. Patrick Robinson is a logical choice for them but they can get him a little later on. I'm really high on that guy Webb they got last year, I think he's going to turn into a great corner.

I agree there's no way Tebow is going in the top 15. There is no way I'd take a project QB like that with my first round pick. If they want a QB that bad at 14, I'd take McCoy who I think is slightly undervalued by draft experts.
 
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His top 7 are good. After that, things fall apart.

Washington desperately needs an offensive tackle. There is no question about it.

Mays has struggled in coverage this year. He'll be in the first round off of his athleticism alone. I just don't know if he's still a top ten talent.

The Jags are bluffing. If they want Tebows intangibles, they can buy them in the second round.

Who really sees the Chargers passing up Mt. Cody for an above average WR? Me neither.

The Texans have problems with Run Blocking, not just running the ball. If you improve the first, the latter will follow. Also they need serious help in their defensive secondary. Dunta Robinson is a free agent after this season and he doesn't want to stay. AT ALL!

The Jests pick makes no sense. While they do have Kris Jenkins, (who is old), they could also have Mt. Cody. Imagine if they put Mt. Cody in the middle and Jenkins at 3-4 End. That would be scary. That makes so much sense that I know it won't happen. Now the pick makes sense. Only the Jests.

If Mt. Cody falls to the Cowboys at number 21, then one of the GM's of teams 8 - 20 should be fired. This kid is a beast. He shouldn't last this long.

The Giants have much bigger needs that DE. Antonio Pierce is getting up there and he has a bulging disk in his neck. I think they take a good long look at Brandon Spikes.

The Ravens need a corner back badly. There are not that many great corners in this draft. There are a bunch of good wide receivers. That means they should go corner in round one and wide receiver in round two. The Ravens will steal Patrick Robinson from the Eagles.

The Pittsburgh pick is just dumb. I know many teams have used a first round pick on a RB when they already had talent at the position. Usually the player that was being upgraded was selected in the 2nd round or lower. But almost never in the 1st round. That's a lot of money to devote to one position. Instead they should upgrade the offensive line. The last time I checked they got swept by the Bengals. THE BENGALS. They are the World Champion Pittsburgh Steelers (I just threw up too), that should not happen.

The Eagles lost to the Raiders for one reason: the offensive line. McNabb got sacked a bunch of times that day. They could definitely trade down and get some quality players on that line.

Spikes is not a good fit for us. He belongs on a 4-3 team that can give him adequate protection. That's why a team like the Giants makes so much sense. What doesn't make sense is for us to choose a linebacker when Guyton is playing fine, but our pass rush is lacking. FIX THE PASS RUSH!

Great points. I'm not a huge fan of that mock, either. Some comments on your points:

1. I doubt Mount Cody makes it out of the top 15. I could see Denver going for McClain, but if I were building a 3-4 defense I'd have to go DT first. They need more beef up front, they got pushed around during their losing streak. San Diego needs both DE and DT help, but with the Chargers surging at 8-3 I doubt he lasts that far. San Francisco could also go for Cody, or even the Jets - Kris Jenkins has got to be a huge question mark for them right now.

2. I see the Jets going DL with their first pick, either DT (Cody) or DE. I don't see Wootton as a 1st round pick right now. I see Cameron Heyward, Allen Bailey, or possibly Carlos Dunlap as more likely options. Arthur Jones would have been an option, but his injury should drop him some.

3. I dropped Mays to 15 in my mock. He could fall as far as Dallas. But he'll put up some amazing numbers at the combine, and someone will get suckered.

4. Washington needs OT and QB. I think they need to re-build their line first. They can get a solid QB prospect in the 2nd round to groom for down the road. But you never know what Dan Snyder will do.

5. The Jags won't take Tebow in the 1st round (I doubt anyone will). They'll probably go DE, likely someone like Derrick Morgan if he's available. They have no 2nd round pick (we have it), but they could trade up for Tebow, or he may well fall to the 3rd round.

6. The Giants have a lot of holes right now. Their secondary has been terrible this year, and I hear that Kenny Phillips' injury may be career-threatening, in which case they desperately need safety help. I gave them Earl Thomas from Texas in my mock, but now I here he's likely to stay. They could go with someone like Morgan Burnett from Georgia Tech. But Spikes is a good choice for them, and I agree he's better in a 4-3. I thought he could possibly land in Baltimore as well.

7. The Ravens need CB, TE and WR as their biggest needs. Webb is a nice prospect. After Joe Haden there's no one who really stands out right now as being worth a 1st round pick, and there's nots of 2nd/3rd round talents bunched together. So I could see them going with someone like Jermaine Gresham, or with a WR - Dez Bryant (if he falls), Damian Williams, Brandon LaFell, Golden Tate, Damaryius Williams, or Aurelius Benn. Brandon Spikes could be a wild card here as a successor to Ray Lewis.

8. I can see Houston taking a big RB in the draft, but not in the first 2 rounds. They need a pass rush and secondary help most of all. I think those will be their priorities in the first 2 rounds, though, as you say, OL could be an option as well.

9. I agree the Pittsburgh pick is terrible. I have them taking Mike Iupati or Maurkice Pouncey in the 1st round. They have 3/5 of a dominant OL with Starks, Komoeatu and Colon. They're a team that builds around its lines.

Some other comments on the NFLdraftcountdown mock:

- Carlos Dunlap to Oakland is too simplistic. One never knows what Crazy Al will do, but I don't see it happening, especially after the DUI. I think he either goes OL (Bryan Bulaga or Bruce Campbell, both of whom should put up terrific numbers at the combine) or takes Gerald McCoy if he's available.

- I think Detroit goes OT over DT and takes Russell Okung. Stafford is their future, and they need to protect him. They can get a good DT at the beginning of round 2.

- I don't see the Titans taking Eric Berry. Period. They'll go DL or CB.

- Trent Williams is not a top 15 pick, and probably a borderline 1st round pick. He's a RT only.

- With Walter Jones likely retiring, OL is a bigger need for Seattle than a RB like Spiller. He ran for 18 yards last week behind an ineffective OL.

- Sergio Kindle is a good pick for Miami, but Chad Henne desperately needs receivers to open up their offense, and if Dez Bryant is available I could see him being the choice.

- Joe Haden won't last to the #16 pick.

- Patrick Robinson's not a 1st round pick. Donovan Warren and Brandon Ghee are better choices, but I'm not sure that there is a true 1st round CB after Joe Haden at this point.

- Colt McCoy is not a 1st round pick, and Minnesota needs a pass rusher to complement Jared Allen more right now. They can get McCoy later.

- Indy can use DT help, but I don't see Arthur Jones as a great fit. UCLA junior Brian Price is a much better fit if they go that route. If he declares, Oklahoma LB Travis Lewis would be terrific in Indy's defense.

Those are all my thoughts for now.
 


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