I Suspect The Roster Is Almost Set

[pats1]

And yes, I am surprised that there are fewer locks this week than last.

I feel you on that one. The plot has really thickened as of late. Depending on injury and waiver situations, those last handful of spots could go a number of different ways, none of which would surprise us.

 

[pats1]

Of the 48 you have listed I feel one of Lewis/Galloway are cut.

And I know I will get burnt for this one - if Morris / Taylor can't stay out of the tub one of them won't make the club.

If Crable can't go, Ninkovitch gets a spot.

That leaves Bruschi, Slater, Wendell or Connolly, BJGE, Ninkovitch, & O'Callaghan (until LeVoir can play)

The last spot is an ILB that gets cut from another team (mayo-guyton-bruschi isn't enough)

I'm not convinced Ninkovich is next-in-line for a roster spot. He's essentially a replica of Burgess and Banta-Cain and is not a core special teams contributor.

You cannot form your roster around the 3-4 and consider Mayo, Guyton, and Bruschi the core. That simply is not how things have worked out this preseason. You must consider Guyton among the OLBs and Mayo among the MLBs. And typically your backup MLB in this scenario is going to be a special teams contributor, which Bruschi is not. That is why I have put Ciurciu in that spot.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Latest round:


Ss (4): Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan, Slater --



...Of course, that's only 52. .

Actually it is a 53 if you count the 5 safeties.......

 

[mayoclinic]

HOW MANY OF US HAVE THE ROSTER MUCH DIFFERENT FOR THE FIRST 48?
And yes, I am surprised that there are fewer locks this week than last.

OFFENSE (23)
QB Brady, Walter, O'Connell
RB Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, Morris
WR Moss, Welker, Galloway, Edelman, Aiken, Lewis
TE Baker, Watson, Thomas
OL Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Orhnberger, Vollmer

DEFENSE (22)
DL Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Brace, Wright, Pryor
DE/OLB Burgress, Banta-Cain
OLB Thomas, Woods
ILB Mayo, Guyton
CB Bodden, Wilhite, Springs, Butler, Wheatley
S Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan

SPECIALISTS (3)
K Gostkowski
P Hanson
LS Ingram

THE LAST FIVE
My choices are Wendell, O'Callaghan, Lenon, Bruschi and Slater.
That leaves out Crable, BJGE, Smith, Connolly, Ventrone, Nunn, Williams and Ninkovitch


PUP
WR Tate
OT LeVoir

IR
LB McKenzie

I haven't changed my roster projection significantly in the past week. I agree with the 48 that you have listed. My remaining 5 includes 2 OLs (1 OT, 1 OG/C) and 3 LBs. I think we end up with 25 offense (3 QB, 4 RB, 3 TE, 6 WR and 9 OL), 25 defense (7 DL, 9 LB, 9 DB) and 3 specialists.

I'm not as high on the BJGE bandwagon as some. If Morris goes on IR, Lawfirm makes the team. Otherwise, he goes. He's done some nice running against scrubs, but nothing to make me feel that losing him would be a major blow.

For OL I'm OK with O'Callaghan (until LeVoir returns) and either of Wendell/Connolly, though the suggestion of a veteran center is definitely an option. I don't see us going with just 8 OLs until LeVoir returns, though it's certainly an option.

I haven't seen enough from Slater to earn a roster spot - I've seen some nice ST plays but also a lot of misses, and nothing to make me thing he's irreplaceable. With the lack of depth at LB, keeping an extra body there seems to me more valuable.

I think Crable is a lock unless he goes on IR. I just don't see BB giving up on him so early. You don't mention Alexander anywhere (unless I missed something), which is fine with me - I don't see him making the team, so I would list him with your final cuts. I think Bruschi is on the bubble - I personally don't think he has anything left to give, though I still think it's a long shot that he gets outright cut - and I could easily see Lenon and Ninkovich making the squad in addition to Crable, but I think the last LB positions are still totally up in the air.

 

[pats1]

Actually it is a 53 if you count the 5 safeties.......

No, it's 53 -- I had 51 before I added Slater, making it 5 safeties. I just re-counted to make sure.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with your comments, except that I have Slater making the team as a special teamer. If Crable is on the 53, I would give him Slater's #53 roster spot.

I haven't changed my roster projection significantly in the past week. I agree with the 48 that you have listed. My remaining 5 includes 2 OLs (1 OT, 1 OG/C) and 3 LBs. I think we end up with 25 offense (3 QB, 4 RB, 3 TE, 6 WR and 9 OL), 25 defense (7 DL, 9 LB, 9 DB) and 3 specialists.

I'm not as high on the BJGE bandwagon as some. If Morris goes on IR, Lawfirm makes the team. Otherwise, he goes. He's done some nice running against scrubs, but nothing to make me feel that losing him would be a major blow.

For OL I'm OK with O'Callaghan (until LeVoir returns) and either of Wendell/Connolly, though the suggestion of a veteran center is definitely an option. I don't see us going with just 8 OLs until LeVoir returns, though it's certainly an option.

I haven't seen enough from Slater to earn a roster spot - I've seen some nice ST plays but also a lot of misses, and nothing to make me thing he's irreplaceable. With the lack of depth at LB, keeping an extra body there seems to me more valuable.

I think Crable is a lock unless he goes on IR. I just don't see BB giving up on him so early. You don't mention Alexander anywhere (unless I missed something), which is fine with me - I don't see him making the team, so I would list him with your final cuts. I think Bruschi is on the bubble - I personally don't think he has anything left to give, though I still think it's a long shot that he gets outright cut - and I could easily see Lenon and Ninkovich making the squad in addition to Crable, but I think the last LB positions are still totally up in the air.

 

[Taxed in Maine]

I'm not convinced Ninkovich is next-in-line for a roster spot. He's essentially a replica of Burgess and Banta-Cain and is not a core special teams contributor.

You cannot form your roster around the 3-4 and consider Mayo, Guyton, and Bruschi the core. That simply is not how things have worked out this preseason. You must consider Guyton among the OLBs and Mayo among the MLBs. And typically your backup MLB in this scenario is going to be a special teams contributor, which Bruschi is not. That is why I have put Ciurciu in that spot.

I'm not buying it. When it counts they will be running the 3-4.

Key word - PRESEASON

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

-- The defense is built on the base 3-4/mulitple front approach. Between 15 DL and LBs they can run 4-3 heavy and goal line to a 1-5 Nickel with little difficulty, switching from one to two-gap lines on the fly.
-- The offense is built on a 3 WR basis.

Offense:
QB*: (2) Brady, O'Connell
RB: (5) Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, Morris, Green-Ellis
WR: (7) Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis, Edelman, Aiken, Ventrone
TE: (3) Baker, Thomas, Watson
OL: (8) Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Wendell, Connolly, Vollmer
Total - (25)

Defense:
DL: (7) Warren, Wilfork, Seymour, Green, Wright, Pryor, Brace
OLB: (4) Banta-Cain, Woods, Burgess, Crable
ILB: (4) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, Alexander
CB: (5) Wilhite, Bodden, Butler, Wheatley, Springs
S (5) Sanders, Meriweather, Chung, McGowan, Slater
Total - (25)

Specialists:
P: (1) Hanson
PK: (1) Gostkowski
LS: (1) Hodel

PSquad: Hoyer, Ingram, Orhnberger, Bussey, Richard, Love, Nunn, ________**
PUP/NFI: LeVoir, Tate

*QB Walter asked to float on the shadow roster for a mid-season return.

**PSquad: If Williams has eligibility left, I can see him there. Adams too.
-- I can also see waiving Love and bringing him back later after test flying others and rearranging the PSquad a time or two.
-- I see Hoyer, O & B, Richard, and Nunn as the core of the PSquad.
-- Ortiz getting yet another look from NE may warrant some PSquad consideration.

-- Green-Ellis is kept due to the injury history of the core RBs and his Special Teams contribution.
-- Against Washington, Vollmer showed he can handle #3 swing tackle duty until LeVoir is back healthy. This makes Britt and O'Callaghan expendable.
-- If Ninkovich has PSquad eligibility I can see him signed there, if not, he may be asked to shadow roster.

 

[GullyFoyle]

No, it's 53 -- I had 51 before I added Slater, making it 5 safeties. I just re-counted to make sure.

You added Slater? yikes I hope BB is more picky than that!

 

[GullyFoyle]

Sorry for being a Slater Hater but hes not making this team

 

[mgteich]

We understand that there are those like you who believe that we don't need special team players and that being one our top two gunners and our best special team tackler isn't important. My guess is that you think that Aiken will also be cut.

Sorry for being a Slater Hater but hes not making this team

 

[mayoclinic]

We understand that there are those like you who believe that we don't need special team players and that being one our top two gunners and our best special team tackler isn't important. My guess is that you think that Aiken will also be cut.

I don't think of myself as a "Slater Hater" but I just haven't been all that impressed with Slater as the uber-STer that some claim him to be. I've seen some nice plays, but also several major mistakes.

The fact is that the FO chose not to resign our best gunner and ST player from the past 2 years, Kelly Washington. Slater's not in Washington's class on ST as far as I can see, and Washington had more potential as a WR than Slater will ever have as either a WR or S. The Pats obviously felt that Aiken could step up and fill Washington's roll for a cheaper price. I can understand that as a business decision, even though I personally regretted it. But letting Washington go does provide some evidence that "being one of our top two gunners and our best special teams tackler" may not be sufficient to stay on the team.

I suspect that Slater will make the team. But I personally think that we could replace his contribution on special teams without that much difficulty, and I'd rather give the last roster spot to someone who might actually contribute on defense.

 

[Mack Herron]

I don't think of myself as a "Slater Hater" but I just haven't been all that impressed with Slater as the uber-STer that some claim him to be. I've seen some nice plays, but also several major mistakes.

The fact is that the FO chose not to resign our best gunner and ST player from the past 2 years, Kelly Washington. Slater's not in Washington's class on ST as far as I can see, and Washington had more potential as a WR than Slater will ever have as either a WR or S. The Pats obviously felt that Aiken could step up and fill Washington's roll for a cheaper price. I can understand that as a business decision, even though I personally regretted it. But letting Washington go does provide some evidence that "being one of our top two gunners and our best special teams tackler" may not be sufficient to stay on the team.

I suspect that Slater will make the team. But I personally think that we could replace his contribution on special teams without that much difficulty, and I'd rather give the last roster spot to someone who might actually contribute on defense.

Great post. Slater has not impressed as a KR guy, S, or WR. He is very good at ST blocking and cover guy, but if you only do one thing on this team you gotta be great at it. You make a great comparison with Washington. Reiss keeps pointing out he is a core ST guy, but so was Washington. Guys like Aiken and Alexander at least give us some depth at a position. Seems to me Ventrone could do what Slater does. Other guys (like Nunn, Love, Ninkovitch) might not be as strong on STs, but have greater versatility.

 

[pats1]

I'm not buying it. When it counts they will be running the 3-4.

Key word - PRESEASON

So when they run it in Week 1 will you be buying it? Or will you continue to deny what your eyes are seeing?

 

[Taxed in Maine]

I'm not saying they won't ever play it. This team is built around a 3-4 base, that is what they will be playing for a base defense the majority of the time. The 4-3, 5-2, and the "everyone standing around looking confused" defenses are dictated by the situation.

 

[pats1]

I'm not saying they won't ever play it. This team is built around a 3-4 base, that is what they will be playing for a base defense the majority of the time. The 4-3, 5-2, and the "everyone standing around looking confused" defenses are dictated by the situation.

That may have been the case in past seasons, but clearly the base of this defense has changed to the 4-3 for this season. Everything they have done in practice and in games up this point backs that up. You can't call it a 3-4 base defense when you play the 4-3 more.

 

[patsfan13]

HOW MANY OF US HAVE THE ROSTER MUCH DIFFERENT FOR THE FIRST 48?
And yes, I am surprised that there are fewer locks this week than last.

OFFENSE (23)
QB Brady, Walter, O'Connell
RB Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, Morris
WR Moss, Welker, Galloway, Edelman, Aiken, Lewis
TE Baker, Watson, Thomas
OL Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Orhnberger, Vollmer

DEFENSE (22)
DL Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Brace, Wright, Pryor
DE/OLB Burgress, Banta-Cain
OLB Thomas, Woods
ILB Mayo, Guyton
CB Bodden, Wilhite, Springs, Butler, Wheatley
S Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan

SPECIALISTS (3)
K Gostkowski
P Hanson
LS Ingram

With you all the way here. The last 5 are tough.

PUP
WR Tate
OT LeVoir

IR
LB McKenzie

Barring an injury to a WR I see Tate going to IR. Even if Tate were physically able to play without camp or OTA's a rookie receiver is pretty useless. When LeVoir comes off Pup O'callahan will go.

THE LAST FIVE
My choices are Wendell, O'Callaghan, Lenon, Bruschi and Slater.
That leaves out Crable, Alexander, BJGE, Smith, Connolly, Ventrone, Nunn, Williams, and Ninkovitch

I agree with Wendell & O'Callaghan for the OL slots, until LeVoir returns.

Have seen enough in practice to decide which 2 of the 4 LB's on the bubble to keep, Bruschi has been poor in the PreSeason game so far, we have Seau on speed dial in the event of injury (I suspect Tedy B could be on speed dials also), Lenon seemed pretty good solid than the fake out by Campbell, hate to give up on Crable. I think Tully can fill Alexanders role on ST and bring something to the LB slot also.

I see the decision being between Bruschi & Crable for the last LB spot. This is lighter than we have been at LB before but with the amount of nickle we will play and some 4-3 mixed in, less need for 9-10 LB's.


I would like to make a case for BJGE over Slater here. We have the oldest group of RB's in the league with Taylor, Faulk and Morris on the wrong side of 30 and Maroney hasn't been the most durable guy in the league either. Morris has also missed time each season also. While a JAg he knows the system and is more valuable than Slater IMO.

 

[pats1]

Barring an injury to a WR I see Tate going to IR. Even if Tate were physically able to play without camp or OTA's a rookie receiver is pretty useless. When LeVoir comes off Pup O'callahan will go.

Why in the world would you do that? Tate would go on Reserve/NFI, and under the rules of the CBA, the team would not be obligated to pay his contract, although they probably still will, like the Vikings did with Udeze last year. And actually, if Tate was in the last year of his contract (which is isn't, but Udeze was), then his contract would be tolled and that final year would be pushed back another season. Finally, Tate spending the season on Reserve/NFI would mean he wouldn't earn an accrued season of free agency credit, so you would have him under your control for longer.

There's absolutely no upside in putting Tate on IR unless it was negotiated in his contract so he could reach free agency faster.

 

[Jimke]

Slater is a good special teams player but 15 yard penalties two

weeks in a row make him a liability. He screws up too much.

 

[DaBruinz]

-- The defense is built on the base 3-4/mulitple front approach. Between 15 DL and LBs they can run 4-3 heavy and goal line to a 1-5 Nickel with little difficulty, switching from one to two-gap lines on the fly.
-- The offense is built on a 3 WR basis.

Offense:
QB*: (2) Brady, O'Connell
RB: (5) Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, Morris, Green-Ellis
WR: (7) Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis, Edelman, Aiken, Ventrone
TE: (3) Baker, Thomas, Watson
OL: (8) Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Wendell, Connolly, Vollmer
Total - (25)

Defense:
DL: (7) Warren, Wilfork, Seymour, Green, Wright, Pryor, Brace
OLB: (4) Banta-Cain, Woods, Burgess, Crable
ILB: (4) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, Alexander
CB: (5) Wilhite, Bodden, Butler, Wheatley, Springs
S (5) Sanders, Meriweather, Chung, McGowan, Slater
Total - (25)

Specialists:
P: (1) Hanson
PK: (1) Gostkowski
LS: (1) Hodel

PSquad: Hoyer, Ingram, Orhnberger, Bussey, Richard, Love, Nunn, ________**
PUP/NFI: LeVoir, Tate

*QB Walter asked to float on the shadow roster for a mid-season return.

**PSquad: If Williams has eligibility left, I can see him there. Adams too.
-- I can also see waiving Love and bringing him back later after test flying others and rearranging the PSquad a time or two.
-- I see Hoyer, O & B, Richard, and Nunn as the core of the PSquad.
-- Ortiz getting yet another look from NE may warrant some PSquad consideration.

-- Green-Ellis is kept due to the injury history of the core RBs and his Special Teams contribution.
-- Against Washington, Vollmer showed he can handle #3 swing tackle duty until LeVoir is back healthy. This makes Britt and O'Callaghan expendable.
-- If Ninkovich has PSquad eligibility I can see him signed there, if not, he may be asked to shadow roster.

Hey Box - Just a little piece of info. During Belichick's time as a HC in New England, he's never cut anyone who was a 4th round pick or higher during their first training camp. I don't see Ohrnberger being cut to keep either Wendell or Connolly. Yes, there is a first time for everything, but I think that Ohrnberger has outplayed both Wendell and Connolly. But that is just me.

Also, Ninkovich is not PS eligible because he spent the entire 2007 season on Miami's 53 man roster.