I Suspect The Roster Is Almost Set

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Just trade for Julius Peppers and we're set. Yep, I just said it.

 

[fester]

We saw BJGE play last season. He had a couple of starts. He runs forward and is decisive....Maroney is what he is. A gifted athlete with excellent open field running skills. But he lacks the most important assets an NFL RB needs to be successful. Vision and instincts. The guy couldn't find a hole in a Las Vegas brothel.


Do you remember Morris' three (or was it 4) consecutive games of over 100 yards before he got injured? When SM plays, the running game is effective. When LM plays, everyone questions the Oline. And yes, I remember Maroney's late season surge but even when he's doing well, he's not as good as Morris. Having said all that, Morris is getting up there in age, as is Taylor, so it is important to keep a younger body on the roster. If we could keep BJGE and Maroney...Great! Especially b/c I think Maroney offers a lot as a ko returner. But if I've got to pick between the two, I don't think its unreasonable to consider BJGE as the better prospect. He certainly doesn't have Maroney's talent, but his running style is much more consistent and reliable and that's what we need out of our RB's.

WTF --- you are making two sets of arguments. 1) Morris is better than Maroney (I won't engage that argument) and 2) Law Firm is better/more consistent than Maroney.

It seems like your preference order is Morris > Law Firm > Maroney --- correct, I just want to look at the last coupling of Law Firm > Maroney.

Maroney has higher yards per carry than Law Firm, Maroney in 2007-08 was averaging a 7% tackle for a loss rate (less than Morris's by the way), and he has the capacity to break a big run. Law Firm has provided replacement level running and averages more than half a yard less per carry than Maroney and has not demonstrated a capacity to break a big one. You may argue that Law Firm has a higher median carry or is more consistent, but Football Outsiders disagrees with you.

Using DVOA, Maroney in 2007-2008 was a top 10 back, he was both very effective and very efficient, his YPC was not skewed by picking up consistent garbage yards on 3rd and 15 draws for 11 yards. He got first downs, or at the very least positioned the Pats offense to go to the next play in a favorable down-distance situation.

 

[fester]

Yes, of course you are correct regarding the production of the two players. That's not what I meant to imply. I was referring to their styles. BJGE consistently hits the holes hard and gets whatever is there. He's much more reliable and consistent at picking up those 3-5 yards. Maroney gets stuffed for no gain or even short losses far too often. When I watch him run, I think our Oline must be terrible. Then the other guys come in and suddenly the running game not only looks competent, it looks dangerous.

This is better --- you admit that on raw statistics Maroney is a better running back, and on advanced stats (DVOA for instance) he is a very good running back when healthy.

Your problem is aesthetic then, and not a question of effectiveness. You think Law Firm plays football "the way it should be played" even if he is less effective than Maroney whose style you don't like, but whose production (when healthy) is consistent and superior to Law Firm.

 

[PYPER]

This is better --- you admit that on raw statistics Maroney is a better running back, and on advanced stats (DVOA for instance) he is a very good running back when healthy.

Your problem is aesthetic then, and not a question of effectiveness. You think Law Firm plays football "the way it should be played" even if he is less effective than Maroney whose style you don't like, but whose production (when healthy) is consistent and superior to Law Firm.

Well hell, if we're going to call the guy "Law Firm", I don't want him no more. I say cut his ass!

);p


btw....Interesting stats on Maroney. Perhaps I'm being too hard on the guy. If so, it's only b/c my expectations were so high. I'm more than happy to have Morris, Taylor AND Maroney.

...And I stand by my original post regarding the 53 man depth chart. This discussion has gotten side tracked but my main point is that the roster is basically coming down to the final two spots with Aiken, Ninkovich, and Ciurciu battling for those final two spots. Unless we keep 3 QB's then those three are battling it out for one spot, the last spot, on the team.

 

[bucky]

The numbers back it up. If the Pats cut him they would lose 500k in cap space. Him and Maroney will be on the 53 in some form or fashion.

Yeah, if they were to cut Wheatley or Crable, they'd be taking $400-500K of dead money. But I don't think that's the #1 consideration here.

There are a number of difficult decisions to be made on this roster. A decision has to be made on # of TEs, BJGE, whether a 3rd QB is necessary, as well as some young OL and DL who are playing fairly well. All of these guys are competing for the same spots as Wheatley and Crable. Most of them are pretty young. So ultimately it just comes down to how the staff feels about the players.

Up until yesterday's game, I felt Wheatley was a lock and Crable was almost a lock. But these guys just keep on making bad plays.

 

[mayoclinic]

It does seem as though RB is one of our biggest long-term areas of need. Faulk is 33 and his contract is up after 2009. Taylor and Morris are in their 30's and their contracts, along with that of Maroney, are up after 2010. And we seem to have moved further and further away from a power running game and become more of a finesse team, which I think could come back to bite us big time.

We seem fairly set for 2009, but for 2010 and beyond I would like to see us address the RB position in a major way. Someone like Jonathan Dwyer from Georgia Tech could revitalize our power running game and do wonders for Maroney, who was probably most productive when used as a change of pace back behind Corey Dillon, and is at his best when working in space. IF (and these are big if's) (1) Burgess works out as a pass-rusher and can be re-signed, (2) the key members of the DL are re-signed, and (3) the young OLs continue to develop, then I could see a power RB being our biggest need for the next offseason.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Agree. Personally, I don't think him or Bruschi (as much as it pains me to say it) make the final 53.

To the partial contrary, I thought Tank handled a couple of the over-the-middle pass plays better than most LBs I have seen on the Pats. He could be a LB/S carried as the 5th S, or 8th LB.

Unfortunately, Father Time has arrived for Tedy...

 

[mgteich]

Updated After Second Preseason Game

I thought I'd post in advance of the update by Reiss. I now have Walter, McGowan and O'Callaghan more "definitely" on the 53.

I still have an open choice at long snapper.

HOW MANY OF US HAVE THE ROSTER MUCH DIFFERENT FOR THE 52-MAN ROSTER?

OFFENSE (25)
QB Brady, Walter, O'Connell
RB Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, Morris
WR Moss, Welker, Galloway, Edelman, Aiken, Lewis
TE Baker, Watson, Thomas
OL Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Orhnberger, Vollmer, Hochstein, O'Callaghan

DEFENSE (24)
DL Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Brace, Wright, Pryor
DE/OLB Burgress, Banta-Cain
OLB Thomas, Woods, Crable
ILB Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi
CB Bodden, Wilhite, Springs, Butler, Wheatley
S Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan

SPECIALISTS (3)
K Gostkowski
P Hanson
LS Ingram/Hodel

FINAL SPOT (1)
Some options include BJGE, Nunn, Slater, Ventrone, Lenon, Ninkovitch, Alexander, Jones, Ciurciu, Tank Williams, Alex Smith and someone from another team's roster.

BTW, with all the talk of everyone salivating over our cuts, which of these would you expect to be on a playoff team's roster? Anyone's roster? And yes, we could offer full roster pay to Nunn to play on the Practice Squad, ditto for Ninkovich.

As of now, I suspect that Alexander is slightly aheady of Green-Ellis and Slater for the last roster spot. I still would expect the last spot to go to Lenon if he can on the field.


PUP
WR Tate
OT LeVoir

IR
LB McKenzie

 

[mayoclinic]

Re: Updated After Second Preseason Game

I thought I'd post in advance of the update by Reiss. I now have Walter, McGowan and O'Callaghan more "definitely" on the 53.

I still have an open choice at long snapper.

HOW MANY OF US HAVE THE ROSTER MUCH DIFFERENT FOR THE 52-MAN ROSTER?

OFFENSE (25)
QB Brady, Walter, O'Connell
RB Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, Morris
WR Moss, Welker, Galloway, Edelman, Aiken, Lewis
TE Baker, Watson, Thomas
OL Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Orhnberger, Vollmer, Hochstein, O'Callaghan

DEFENSE (24)
DL Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Brace, Wright, Pryor
DE/OLB Burgress, Banta-Cain
OLB Thomas, Woods, Crable
ILB Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi
CB Bodden, Wilhite, Springs, Butler, Wheatley
S Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan

SPECIALISTS (3)
K Gostkowski
P Hanson
LS Ingram/Hodel

FINAL SPOT (1)
Some options include BJGE, Nunn, Slater, Ventrone, Lenon, Ninkovitch, Alexander, Jones, Ciurciu, Tank Williams, Alex Smith and someone from another team's roster.

BTW, with all the talk of everyone salivating over our cuts, which of these would you expect to be on a playoff team's roster? Anyone's roster? And yes, we could offer full roster pay to Nunn to play on the Practice Squad, ditto for Ninkovich.

As of now, I suspect that Alexander is slightly aheady of Green-Ellis and Slater for the last roster spot. I still would expect the last spot to go to Lenon if he can on the field.


PUP
WR Tate
OT LeVoir

IR
LB McKenzie

Nice list. I pretty much agree with everything you listed, with the following comments:

1) LeVoir takes the 4th OT spot after week 6. I think that's pretty much a given after his performance last year.

2) I agree that we probably keep 3 TEs, but I'm not completely willing to give up on Alex Smith vs. Thomas for the 3rd spot, mainly because Smith is still the new kid on the block and is adjusting to the offense. I understand that he hasn't looked good, but I still think he's adjusting. If he doesn't show anything in the next 2 games, he's gone, though.

3) If Lenon can get on the field and show something, I think he will pretty much be a lock for the 53rd spot, and could possibly even bump Bruschi, who looks like he has nothing left in the tank. I could see potentially keeping Tank Williams as a hybrid DB/LB, or one of the STers (Ciurciu, Ventrone, Slater).

Otherwise, fabulous job. I think Walter is pretty much a lock right now - I would not be comfortable with just 2 QBs after what O'Connell has shown so far, and he looks more like #3 material than #2 at the moment. I think 4 RBs, 3 TEs, 6 WRs and 9 OLs is perfect. And I think that the DL and DB positions are pretty much set.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

It's high time I took a stab at this before the picking gets too easy. The locks:

OFFENSE (24)
2 QB Brady, O'Connell
4 RB Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, Morris
6 WR Moss, Welker, Galloway, Edelman, Aiken, Lewis
3 TE Baker, Thomas, Watson (yes, I think he's a lock)
9 OL Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Orhnberger, Vollmer, Hochstein, Britt

DEFENSE (23)
8 DL Seymour, Warren, Green, Burgess, Brace, Wright, Wilfork, Pryor
4 OLB Thomas, Woods, Banta-Cain, Crable (mostly for his deferred bonus)
3 ILB Mayo, Guyton
5 CB Bodden, Wilhite, Springs, Butler, Wheatley
4 S Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan,

SPECIALISTS (3)
K Gostkowski
P Hanson
LS Ingram

PUP
WR Tate
OT LeVoir

IR
LB McKenzie

Fighting for the last three spots:
Bruschi (Somebody has to take the job from him. There's nobody else shown they can fill in reliably in case of injury to Mayo or Guyton.)
LB Alexander (One of two best ST players on the team with Aiken.)
S Slater (If somebody else shows up as a kick returner, he could be gone.)
QB Walter (KOC's play determines Walter's fate, I think.)
LB Lenon (If he shows as an ST stud, he could win a spot. Gotta suit up first. If he shows up tomorrow and shines, he could bump Bruschi, too.)
WR Ventrone (Classic numbers victim.)
LB Ninkovich (Insurance against injury at this point. Probably better than Crable, but not at the cost of a $500K cap hit.)

Don't think Ciurciu or Jones have shown enough to indicate they have a chance of displacing the incumbent STers. Unless Lenon shows up looking like an ST stud and has flashes of better-than-Bruschi, I don't see him making it. Ventrone hasn't done anything wrong, but other guys can do what he does. Slater has a leg up as a return man. Maybe Butler, Merriweather, or Edelman can make Slater expendable and open up a slot for someone else.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Just trade for Julius Peppers and we're set. Yep, I just said it.

I'd rather have Adrian Peterson.

 

[PYPER]

Re: Updated After Second Preseason Game

As of now, I suspect that Alexander is slightly aheady of Green-Ellis and Slater for the last roster spot. I still would expect the last spot to go to Lenon if he can on the field.

SLATER????

If Slater makes this team I'm cutting off my left nut.

 

[mayoclinic]

Re: Updated After Second Preseason Game

SLATER????

If Slater makes this team I'm cutting off my left nut.

I don't think Slater makes the team, but I value my left (and right) nut too much to make that bet.

 

[captain stone]

Re: Updated After Second Preseason Game

I thought I'd post in advance of the update by Reiss. I now have Walter, McGowan and O'Callaghan more "definitely" on the 53.

I still have an open choice at long snapper.

HOW MANY OF US HAVE THE ROSTER MUCH DIFFERENT FOR THE 52-MAN ROSTER?

OFFENSE (25)
QB Brady, Walter, O'Connell
RB Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, Morris
WR Moss, Welker, Galloway, Edelman, Aiken, Lewis
TE Baker, Watson, Thomas
OL Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Orhnberger, Vollmer, Hochstein, O'Callaghan

DEFENSE (24)
DL Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Brace, Wright, Pryor
DE/OLB Burgress, Banta-Cain
OLB Thomas, Woods, Crable
ILB Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi
CB Bodden, Wilhite, Springs, Butler, Wheatley
S Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan

SPECIALISTS (3)
K Gostkowski
P Hanson
LS Ingram/Hodel

FINAL SPOT (1)
Some options include BJGE, Nunn, Slater, Ventrone, Lenon, Ninkovitch, Alexander, Jones, Ciurciu, Tank Williams, Alex Smith and someone from another team's roster.

BTW, with all the talk of everyone salivating over our cuts, which of these would you expect to be on a playoff team's roster? Anyone's roster? And yes, we could offer full roster pay to Nunn to play on the Practice Squad, ditto for Ninkovich.

As of now, I suspect that Alexander is slightly aheady of Green-Ellis and Slater for the last roster spot. I still would expect the last spot to go to Lenon if he can on the field.


PUP
WR Tate
OT LeVoir

IR
LB McKenzie

I agree with every single one of your final 52, on both sides of the ball...for now.

I also agree that if Lenon can play vs. Washington, and at least just be decent, then he should secure #53.

Lots of time left, however, and still some tough decisions ahead.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mike Reiss pretty much agrees as well. Here's his latest take on the final 53:

Projecting the 53, Part II - Reiss' Pieces - Boston.com

The only differences I see:

1. I keep 9 OLs and 4 RBs instead of Reiss' 8 OLs and 5 RBs, with O'Callaghan getting the nod over BJGE (a spot which will eventually go to LeVoir anyway).

2. I agree Alex Smith is the odd TE out as of right now, but I still think it's not over and Smith could get the last TE spot over Dave Thomas.

3. I think Crable is still a lock to make the team, and Alexander gets bumped.

4. I think Lenon gets the last defensive spot over Slater.

 

[PYPER]

Mike Reiss pretty much agrees as well. Here's his latest take on the final 53:

Projecting the 53, Part II - Reiss' Pieces - Boston.com

The only differences I see:

1. I keep 9 OLs and 4 RBs instead of Reiss' 8 OLs and 5 RBs, with O'Callaghan getting the nod over BJGE (a spot which will eventually go to LeVoir anyway).

2. I agree Alex Smith is the odd TE out as of right now, but I still think it's not over and Smith could get the last TE spot over Dave Thomas.

3. I think Crable is still a lock to make the team, and Alexander gets bumped.

4. I think Lenon gets the last defensive spot over Slater.

1. I love Reis but thats insane to think we should go with only 8 on the Oline. I can't understand where he's coming from there.

2. Bye-bye Smith. One of these days Thomas is going to be a stud for us.

3. Crable yes, Alexander no.

4. Reis is a a Slater fan? Why? How? He's a one dimensional return specialist and he's nowhere even close to being the best returner in camp. I mean, the guy has more muffs than decent returns. Maroney will likely be 3rd string RB and he can be an excellent returner. Wheatley is the 5th CB and he can return. We still have Faulk. We have tons of players who can return kickoffs. There's no need for Slater. He should be one of the first cuts.

 

[Synovia]

4. Reis is a a Slater fan? Why? How? He's a one dimensional return specialist and he's nowhere even close to being the best returner in camp. I mean, the guy has more muffs than decent returns. Maroney will likely be 3rd string RB and he can be an excellent returner. Wheatley is the 5th CB and he can return. We still have Faulk. We have tons of players who can return kickoffs. There's no need for Slater. He should be one of the first cuts.

You do realize Slater is a gunner, right? And that when hes not returning kicks, hes the lead blocker, right? He does a ton of things on ST that Faulk, Maroney, Wheatley, etc, can't do.

 

[PYPER]

You do realize Slater is a gunner, right? And that when hes not returning kicks, hes the lead blocker, right? He does a ton of things on ST that Faulk, Maroney, Wheatley, etc, can't do.

I don't think he does "a ton of things" period. He undoubtedly can do more than Faulk or Maroney on special teams but are there not other players who can fill the same roles and do it just as good if not better? Aiken Lenon, Ninkovitch, Alexander, Jones, Ciurciu, and Tank Williams just to name a few.

 

[Synovia]

I don't think he does "a ton of things" period. He undoubtedly can do more than Faulk or Maroney on special teams but are there not other players who can fill the same roles and do it just as good if not better? Aiken Lenon, Ninkovitch, Alexander, Jones, Ciurciu, and Tank Williams just to name a few.

If those guys could do these things better, why is Slater doing them now?

 

[PYPER]

If those guys could do these things better, why is Slater doing them now?

Gosh, I didn't realize he was the the only one doing them. If that's the case then he's gotta be one of the most valuable players this team has ever had. And he's only in his 2nd year too. Forget cutting him, we should sign him to a long term deal. There's no way we could ever let him go. He's almost as much of a lock as Brady. Except he's a lot faster and more valuable. We can always find a guy to throw the ball but there is no replacement for what Slater brings to the table. What was I thinking?

);p