BJ Raji Hypothetical

[mayoclinic]

We need to consider everyone as we con't know where we'll be picking. One intriguing thing about Raji is we have a legit 4-3 MLB now. I don't think we would switch to a 4-3 but as oppsed to last offseason playing more is an option as we have Mayo who can run. Raji would give us depth behind Wilfork, a replacement option if it comes to that but also would give us the choice to play a line of Warren-Raji-Wilfork-Seymour (wow) with Vrabel-Mayo-Thomas behind them when the matchup dictates.

BB likes us to use multiple fronts, and already mixes 3-4 and 4-4 sets. I could see us keeping 3-4 as a base but throwing in a lot of 4-3, as well as other sets. Thomas and Mayo have the versatility to adapt to different sets. Guyton's speed could also be used to advantage. In my "wet dream" scenario, Dansby could also be used quite flexibly.

I would see Raji providing the following benefits:

- Allowing us to play a "big" 4-3 with Seymor-Raji-Wilfork-Warren, or even with moving AD up to DE for some sets.
- Providing injury insurance at DE if Seymour or Warren get hurt. We could use him at DE similar to how Baltimore used Ngata before Kelly Gregg got hurt.
- Providing injury insurance at DT if Wilfork gets hurt, plus just spelling Wilfork to keep us fresh at DT.
- Providing insurance if Seymour or Wilfork can't be resigned within our salary structure. Particularly with the number of teams going 3-4, I could see someone with a lot of cap room deciding to throw a bunch of $$ at them after 2009.

I just think BB could get very creative. Ngata is so athletic that Baltimore has used him as a 345# LB at times. It remains to be seen if Raji is that athletic, but he has shown tremendous burst and quickness for a 334# big man so far. He seems to be intelligent and to have a pretty high motor. I could just see us doing more with him than almost anyone else.

Compare the following scenarios that have been tossed around on this board:

1. Pats franchise Cassel and trade him straight up to Carolina for Julius Peppers, who converts to 3-4 OLB. Peppers somehow agrees to take on a long term contract which isn't totally exorbitant because he wants to "become the best that he can be" in the 3-4 with BB. Pepper's contract precludes signing any major FAs, and takes money away from resigning Seymour/Wilfork/Mankins after 2009.

2. Pats franchise Cassel and trade him to SF for #10 (roughly equivalent value to trading him to Tampa Bay/Detroit/Minnesota for #19-22 + a conditional 2010 pick; if necessary, possibly adjust the trade a bit to make it work). Jax and GB pass on Raji and we take him #10 and sign him to a contract somewhat similar to what Mayo got in 2008. We sign Dansby in FA and move him to SILB. We pass on a potentially dominant 3-4 OLB at #10 (Orapko, Brown) in favor of Raji.

3. Pats franchise Cassel and trade him to Tampa Bay/Detroit/Minnesota for #19-22 + a 2010 conditional pick. We take BVA at #19-22 (OL, DE/OLB, DB or possibly someone like Percy Harvin). We make the same offseason moves as in scenario #2.

4. Same scenario as #3 but instead of signing Dansby in FA we somehow manage to sign Suggs. Same salary cap considerations as with scenario #1 with Peppers. No other major FAs signed. Maualuga falls to #19-22 and we pair him at SILB with Mayo.

All 4 scenarios seem roughly equally likely (or unlikely) to me, but all have been tossed around on this board.

Which scenario do you think offers the greatest upside to the Pats? I'd personally vote for either #2 or #4, but #4 seems to me if anything more unlikely (geting Suggs) and more disruptive to our salary structure, and I think the Raji scenario gives us more flexibility and creativity on D.

 

[mayoclinic]

This out today from Mike Mayock on Raji, by way of Mike Reiss:

Patriots blog - Reiss' Pieces - Boston.com

Interesting stuff. Raji has great versatility and could be used in a number of schemes. 19 seems very low for him right now, with most considering him a lock to Denver at 12 if not earlier, but I expect that after the combine some other players will jump up a bit, as seems to happen every year. If Raji fell at all past 12 I think the Pats should seriously consider pulling the trigger and going after him. I think he would be a bigger difference maker on defense for the Pats than any other player in the draft, even including Aaron Curry.

 

[DarrylS]

I understand, but it's nice to think of hypotheticals. Imagine a scenario like this:

- Get pick 97 in the draft as compensation for Asante Samuel and a 4th round comp for Randall Gay
- Resign FAs Mike Wright (DT.DE), James Sanders (S) and Lewis Sanders (S/CB)
- Sign as UFAs: Karlos Dansby (ILB/OLB), Sean Jones (S), Jabari Greer (CB)
- Franchise Cassel and trade him to Tampa Bay for 1(19) + conditional 2010 pick
-Draft (first 4 rounds):
1(19) BJ Raji, DT Boston College 6'2" 334#
1(23) Best available CB/S prospect: Sean Smith, William Moore, DJ Moore, or Alphonso Smith depending on availability, need, and BB's preference
2(47) Connor Barwin DE/LB Cincinnati 6'4, 255# 4.64
3(57) William Beatty OT Connecticut 6'6" 300# 5.10
3(87) Trevor Canfield OG Cincinnati 6'3" 315# 5.15
3(97) Devin Moore RB Wyoming 5'10" 191# 4.40
4(122) Best available TE or WR (Jarrett Dillard, Brian Robiskie, etc.)
4(132) Kevin Huber P Cinncinati 6'1" 220# 4.85

That would fix a lot of needs, and give us tremendous defensive versatility with some added toughness and playmaking ability.

Gbnreport has Raji going #24 to Atlanta in today's mock draft. I'm not defending their mock, but it's not an inconceivable scenario that he could fall a bit between now and the draft. Raji would add toughness and flexibility to the DL, would add insurance in case of injury or FA loss of Wilfork or Seymour (not that I want either). I think at this point he's a much better player than Clint Sintim or even Rey Maualuga.

.

Not to nitpik, but don't we have 2 #2's.... other than that this would be beyond my wildest dreams...

 

[tanked_as_usual]

forget the big 3-4.........it worked once and we never saw it again

the problem is that any decent passing team will shred that scheme

as for Raji......drafting him and letting wilfork walk would be something the pats would live to regret.........raji may be more powerful, but he lacks wilforks mobility......to me, it would be wiser to commit to wilfork and draft tyson jackson

 

[mayoclinic]

forget the big 3-4.........it worked once and we never saw it again

the problem is that any decent passing team will shred that scheme

as for Raji......drafting him and letting wilfork walk would be something the pats would live to regret.........raji may be more powerful, but he lacks wilforks mobility......to me, it would be wiser to commit to wilfork and draft tyson jackson

I'm not suggesting we would ever draft Raji with the intention of letting Wilfork walk - I agree with you that we would regret that. But I think that Raji would provide insurance in case of injury or if we can't resign Wilfork, and I think we would get plenty of value for him in different defensive alignments, similar to how Baltimore uses Ngata.

Since George Young expounded the "planet theory" about athletic 300 lb. players a decade or so ago, it has become more and more commonplace to find athletic 300 pounders. But finding true athletic behemoth players like Raji, Wilfork, Haynesworth or Ngata is still extremely difficult, and they have tremendous value, both in terms of scarcity and utility.

 

[AzPatsFan]

This all comes as a grain of salt as the only time I really took the time to watch the guy was the bowl game v Vandy. He looks more of an upfield player than the Pats prefer, but I guess Wilfork was the same way when he was coming out of college. Raji looks like he could be a better pass rusher than Wilfork, though I do think Wilfork is underrated in that regard. But I don't see Raji as stout against the run as Vince.

As for NT in general, I think it was BOR who recently reminded everyone that we can franchise Wilfork at the end of 2009 if need be, so I am taking NT down a notch on the needs list, although I would say backup NT is still a need as neither Wright nor LeKevin have the size one would like at the position, and those appear to be our two options.

If I considered NT a more pressing short term need, I would agree with you, but given we can control Wilfork with the franchise tag, I am feeling better about the position.

That is why I have penciled in Ron Brace for backup NT with the Asante compensatory pick.

 

[BPF]

That is why I have penciled in Ron Brace for backup NT with the Asante compensatory pick.

Brace will go early to mid 2nd Rd.

 

[mayoclinic]

Brace will go early to mid 2nd Rd.

I would agree with this. I don't see Brace as a likely option for us unless we take him at #47, and he may not last that long.

One player I think is worth taking a long look at in the later rounds is Sammie Lee Hill from Spillman. He's 6'4", 330#, very athletic (has played basketball, TE and DE in addition to DT), appears to be a good character kid, and has a bit of a chip on his shoulder coming from Spillman. He could be an interesting developmental prospect at DT/DE.

 

[patchick]

I would agree with this. I don't see Brace as a likely option for us unless we take him at #47, and he may not last that long.

One player I think is worth taking a long look at in the later rounds is Sammie Lee Hill from Spillman. He's 6'4", 330#, very athletic (has played basketball, TE and DE in addition to DT), appears to be a good character kid, and has a bit of a chip on his shoulder coming from Spillman. He could be an interesting developmental prospect at DT/DE.

Agreed on both players...Hill is a fascinating prospect, and exactly the kind of small-school player for whom the combine is genuinely meaningful. I'm very curious to see how he performs. Right now, he's one of the few DL prospects with significant upside you could hope to find after round 2.

 

[mayoclinic]

Agreed on both players...Hill is a fascinating prospect, and exactly the kind of small-school player for whom the combine is genuinely meaningful. I'm very curious to see how he performs. Right now, he's one of the few DL prospects with significant upside you could hope to find after round 2.

Smith seems to be rated anywhere from the late 4th-6th round, but with 3-4 DE's the vogue and a paucity of DE's a could see him going towards the higher end of that range. William Hayes from Winston-Salem, who I thought was an intriguing developmental OLB pick in around the 6th-7th round last year, ended up going early 4th (#103 overall) to the Titans, which shocked everyone at the time. If Smith shows well at the combine, I would take a serious look at him no later than the 4th round.

 

[mayoclinic]

Sorry, brain far - meant "Hill", not "Smith". Oops.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

I would agree with this. I don't see Brace as a likely option for us unless we take him at #47, and he may not last that long.

One player I think is worth taking a long look at in the later rounds is Sammie Lee Hill from Spillman. He's 6'4", 330#, very athletic (has played basketball, TE and DE in addition to DT), appears to be a good character kid, and has a bit of a chip on his shoulder coming from Spillman. He could be an interesting developmental prospect at DT/DE.

hill gained 70 lbs in the last year..........which is why he played TE and DE but plays DT now..........he has stored massive amounts of fat

 

[VJCPatriot]

The hype machine has caught up to Raji. ESPN projects him as a top 5 pick now. Forget about him.

 

[mayoclinic]

The hype machine has caught up to Raji. ESPN projects him as a top 5 pick now. Forget about him.

I don't worry much about the hype machine. I think that Raji is at a peak right now after the Senior Bowl, and he will probably come down a bit after the combine when some of the juniors and players who skipped the bowl games work out. I wouldn't be surprised to see him drop back to the 10-15 range. Mayock, as I quoted above, thinks he will go around #19, and this is after his Senior Bowl performance. Last year people were talking about Sedrick Ellis as a potential #1 pick after the Senior Bowl.

Raji is clearly the #1 DT and I think he is a tremendous talent. I like him and Aaron Curry the best of the defensive players this year. But I doubt he ends up a top 5 pick, unless he posts speed numbers which are out of this world. The last top-5 DT was Dwayne Robertson, whom the Jets stupidly traded 2 first round picks to trade up and take #4 based on his size/speed numbers at the combine. Raji won't be a workout warrior - his 40 time won't wow anyone, and his quickness and penetration won't be easily quantifiable on drills. Someone like Sen'Derrick Marks is much more likely to impress at the combine than Raji.

I love the combine, because every year a bunch of players put up meaningless numbers which cause stupid teams to reach for them, allowing better players to fall down to the smart teams, including us. Where would we be without the Dwayne Robertsons, Jamarcus Russells, Troy Williamsons, Kyle Bollars, Vernon Gholstons, etc.? I hope that Vontae Davis, Michael Johnson, Darius Heyward-Bey, Brian Cushing and Josh Freeman (among others) all blow away the combine and become top 20 picks. Hopefully Freeman will get on his knees and throw a football through the goal posts like Bollar did, and the Jets will jump all over him at #17.

 

[patchick]

The last top-5 DT was Dwayne Robertson

psst...Glenn Dorsey last year.

But I agree that we're in a weird Senior Bowl bubble moment right now, and some new flavors of the week will emerge from the Combine.

 

[mayoclinic]

psst...Glenn Dorsey last year.

But I agree that we're in a weird Senior Bowl bubble moment right now, and some new flavors of the week will emerge from the Combine.

Oops. But you know what I mean. Dorsey was a different beast altogether from Raji, so I wasn't thinking about him. But I stand corrected.