Afc:

In a 180 degree swing from last week, all four home teams are favored in this weekend’s NFL division round playoffs. The Patriots are favored by 5 over KC, Denver by 6½ over Pittsburgh, Arizona by 7½ over Green Bay, and in the closest line Carolina – the team with the NFL’s best record – is only a 3-point home favorite over Seattle.

The Week 14 game was one of the chippiest of the 2015 season, a game that where many lambasted the officiating crew for letting the game get out of hand. That NFL handed out five fines to players following that game, but the NFL – in yet another questionable decision – has assigned the very same crew to officiate this game. Welcome to the world of decision making by Roger Goodell and his minions.

NFL wild card weekend kicks off Saturday afternoon as the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Houston to take on the AFC South champion Texans. Both clubs overcame the common obstacle of extremely unsuccessful starts to the 2015 season; Houston did not win their second game of the year until Week 6, and KC did not get their second victory until the following week. To accomplish that rare feat both teams leaned heavily on their defenses, both of which ranked in the top ten in the league in points allowed. After a five-turnover debacle against Denver in Week 2, the Chiefs gave the ball away just ten times over the next fourteen games, and finished with a plus-14 turnover differential – second best in the league this year. On December 27 the Texans lost to the Patriots to drop to 6-7 and their playoff chances appeared bleak. Houston’s defense forced ten turnovers over the next three games to carry the team to an improbable comeback, and into the post-season.

The NFL regular season is supposed to reward teams with the best records with an advantage in the playoffs, but Vegas handicappers differ with their opinion. Of the four teams playing at home in the first round of the NFL playoffs only one is favored to win. Despite all the disparaging comments about their division, the NFC East lays claim to the only home favorite in the wild card round. The Washington Redskins are the sole lone favorite this weekend, and that is by just one point – despite the traditional three points being placed in favor of the home team. The Packer playoff mystique is long gone after last week’s home loss to the Vikings

Expect the New England offense to perform much better than it did last week. Let’s give credit where it is due: the Jet defense is one of the best in the NFL. The Patriots should have much better success on third down than they did last week, which will lead to more scoring opportunities – and at the same time keep the Patriot defense off the field, allowing them to be less gassed and more effective.

One nice thing about the final week of the season for football fans is that two networks televise both an early and late game, plus restrictions that prohibit another game being televised while the local team plays a home game are lifted. There was a time when this was actually standard operating procedure: the AFL would televise two games on NBC, and the NFL would televise two games on CBS. Once the two leagues merged that ended though, and now pro football fans are forced to either pay big bucks or watch crappy games between losing teams far too often.

While many of the top NFL teams such as New England, Seattle, Carolina and Green Bay lost in Week 16, nobody was more negatively affected than the Pittsburgh Steelers. A shockingly flat performance against an injury-riddled Baltimore team that was forced to start an out-of-work Ryan Mallett at quarterback will most likely keep them out of post-season play. Losses by the Patriots and Panthers prevented those teams from securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but did not drop them in the playoff standings. Seattle’s loss at worse means only the difference between a fifth and sixth seed, and despite the Packers looking abysmal on Sunday night, they are still in the driver’s seat to win the division and claim the number three seed in the NFC.

While NFL Week 15 did not do much to the playoff picture other than end the misery for a handful of teams by officially eliminating them from post-season play, it did bring genuine contenders one step closer to clinching scenarios in Week 16. Eighteen teams still have at least a mathematical chance at a playoff spot with two weeks to go; that is surely something that Roger Goodell’s parity-driven Park Avenue league office that strives for participation banners is surely proud of.

On Thursday, prior to the start of any Week 15 games, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook published early ‘look ahead’ odds for the following week’s NFL action. The line originator installed the New England Patriots as three-point road favorites over the New York Jets in what will be the 114th meeting of these two bitter rivals from the AFL. Since the finish of Sunday’s NFL games 14 other venues have followed suit and list the Pats as three-point favorites, while four are placing New England at minus 3½ points.

In both conferences the race for the number five seed is nearly as meaningful as getting a first round bye. Both of the number five seeds will most likely be playing against a team with a .500 (or losing record). On the other hand the number six seed will have to go on the road against a ten or eleven-win club.

The 10-2 New England Patriots seek to avoid their first three-game losing streak since 2002 when they travel to Houston to face the 6-6 Texans on Sunday. The Patriots need a win to keep even with Denver and Cincinnati in the race for a first round bye in the AFC, while Houston looks to overtake Indianapolis for the lead in the AFC South.

Prior to their come from behind victory over New Orleans, Carolina became the first team to clinch a playoff spot when Tampa Bay defeated Atlanta 23-19. The Panthers have won their third straight NFC South title and are a virtual lock for a first round bye. Meanwhile New England’s upset loss to Philadelphia dropped the Patriots to the number three seed in the AFC – though what many are overlooking is that the Pats still control their own destiny for a first round bye since Denver and Cincinnati play each other in Week 16.

In NFL Week 14 Early Advanced betting lines, the Westgate in Las Vegas has initially installed the New England Patriots as 3.5 point road favorites over the Houston Texans. Jacksonville is a 1-point favorite over Indy, the Broncos are favored by 6.5 over Oakland, and Carolina is an 8-point favorite over Atlanta.

In the highly anticipated rematch of last January’s AFC Championship game, the Patriots have opened as 5-point favorites at Indianapolis. The Colts have failed to live up to their off-season hype thus far, while the Patriots appear to gearing up for this game as part of the 2015 Scorched Earth FU tour.

Another week and another marquee NFL player is sidelined with a serious injury. Ben Roethlisberger was off to a fantastic start of the 2015 NFL season but will reportedly be out 4-6 weeks after suffering a medial collateral ligament sprain and bone bruise from a low hit in the pocket by St. Louis safety Mark Barron in the third quarter of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 12-6 victory over the Rams on Sunday. Big Ben had completed over 75% of his passes this season and was leading the league with 10.2 pass attempts; in the first two games of the year Roethlisberger threw for a whopping 720 yards, and was picking the St. Louis defense apart, completing 20 of 24 passes before the unfortunate hit.