Patriots at Dolphins: In-Depth Team Stats, Odds, TV Info & Prediction

In the final week of the 2015 NFL regular season, the 12-3 New England Patriots travel to south Florida to take on the 5-10 Miami Dolphins. With a victory the Patriots will secure the number one seed in the AFC and home field throughout the playoffs; the Pats can also land in the top spot if Denver loses to San Diego. Even with a loss and a win by the Broncos, New England will still have a bye next week to give many of their injured players extra time to recoup – but would have to travel to Denver for the AFC Championship game should both teams make it that far. The Dolphins were eliminated three weeks ago in what was the first loss of their current three-game losing streak and have clinched last place in the AFC South. The Fins have scored more than twenty points just three times this season, while giving up 30+ points six times and 23 or more ten times.

NFL Week 17 Playoff Picture with Clinching and Elimination Scenarios

Who: 12-3 New England Patriots at 5-10 Miami Dolphins

When: Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 pm ET

Where: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens FL

Television: CBS; announcers: Kevin Harlan, Rich Gannon

Broadcast on nine New England stations (Boston MA; Springfield MA; Providence RI; Hartford CT; Burlington VT; and Bangor, Portland and Presque Isle ME) and four Florida stations (Miami, West Palm Beach, Fort Myers and Tampa).

Week 17 NFL Maps

Weather: 79° (‘feels like’ 82°); brief afternoon showers expected with a 59% chance of rain; 90% cloud cover, 73% humidity and a breeze of 6 mph.

Odds: The Patriots opened as eight-point favorites Sunday, and after a couple hours the line moved up to nine as early action was heavily tilted in New England’s favor. That trend continued throughout the week; by Tuesday the line was up to ten points and peaked at 10½ Wednesday, before settling back at ten Thursday. Late action has leaned more towards Miami plus the points, resulting in some venues lowering the spread to 9½, but the majority of betting parlors remain at 10 points. The over/under has moved up from an open of 44½ to 46½, with some sites as high as 47. As is always the case the money line varies from one venue to another, but the typical ML is set with the Patriots -500 (risk $500 to win $100) and Miami +400 (risk $100 to win $400).

Head-to-Head Series Record: Miami holds a slight edge in the all-time series at 52-48, which includes two wins and one loss by the Patriots in the playoffs. Miami won 17 out of 22 from 1967 to 1977, but the Patriots came back to upset the Fins in the ‘Squish the Fish’ game in the ’85 playoffs, starting a string of seven consecutive wins for the Patriots in the late eighties. Miami dominated in the early nineties, winning nine straight and 12 out of 13, but the Pats came back to win four in a row, including a 17-3 victory in the 1997 playoffs. Bill Belichick lost his first three meetings with Miami as head coach of the Patriots, but since then it has been all Pats, with New England winning 20 of the last 28 games.

Besides the Squish the Fish game, there have been plenty of other memorable battles between these two teams: the Mark Henderson Snow Plow Game; the Doug Flutie Drop Kick Game; the Wildcat Game; Miami’s Enhanced Audio ‘TapeGate’ Game; and Matt Light’s fight with Channing Crowder.

Miami has the appearance of a team that has packed it in, playing uninspired ball since the Patriots crushed them 36-7 in Week 8. The Dolphins have lost three in a row and seven of their last nine, with their only victories coming by a margin of two points against an injury-riddled Baltimore squad and by one over a Philadelphia team that was in the midst of a swoon that resulted in the firing of their head coach. The Patriots have plenty to play for but have 14 players on Injured Reserve, plus six more that have been ruled out for this game. Miami would love to end the season on a positive note by denying their long time rivals the number one seed; with so many key Patriot players missing, that is entirely possible.

Here is a look at how the two teams compare statistically; the numbers reflect an average per game (or per play), rather than aggregate totals. Per-game and per-play stats are used rather than gross totals because that makes the rankings more meaningful, and because they provide a better context in regards to what to expect in any given game. Numbers in green indicate a top-ten ranking while underlined green is top-five; red indicates a bottom-ten ranking and underlined red is bottom-five.

New England Patriots Offense versus Miami Dolphins Defense

Scoring per Game: Patriots 30.3 (3rd); Dolphins 25.3 (23rd)

Yardage per Game: Patriots 386 (4th); Dolphins 388 (27th)

First Downs per Game: Patriots 22.4 (3rd); Dolphins 22.6 (30th)

Yards per Play: Patriots 5.8 (6th); Dolphins 5.7 (25th)

Yards per Drive: Patriots 33.9 (8th); Dolphins 33.7 (28th)

Points per Drive: Patriots 2.57 (2nd); Dolphins 2.11 (23rd)

Drive Success Rate: Patriots .733 (3rd); Dolphins .726 (29th)

Points per Play: Patriots .457 (3rd); Dolphins .371 (19th)

Touchdowns per Game: Patriots 3.4 (3rd); Dolphins 3.0 (25th)

Red Zone Touchdowns per Game: Patriots 2.6 (1st); Dolphins 1.9 (20th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Patriots 66.1% (3rd); Dolphins 60.4% (21st)

Plays per Game: Patriots 66.4 (9th); Dolphins 68.1 (29th)

Third Down Conversions per Game: Patriots 5.6 (12th); Dolphins 6.1 (29th)

Third Down Percentage: Patriots 41.8% (9th); Dolphins 44.4% (28th)

Punts per Score: Patriots 0.8 (3rd); Dolphins 1.1 (16th)

Punts per Game: Patriots 4.40 (10th); Dolphins 4.60 (18th)

Rushing Yards: Patriots 88.9 (29th); Dolphins 129.9 (30th)

Yards per Carry: Patriots 3.75 (28th); Dolphins 4.10 (16th)

Passing Yards: Patriots 297 (2nd); Dolphins 258 (24th)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 7.7 (7th); Dolphins 7.9 (28th)

Completion Percentage: Patriots 64.7% (11th); Dolphins 65.2% (23rd)

Passer Rating: Patriots 103.3 (4th); Dolphins 98.8 (25th)

TD Passes/Picks: Patriots +29 (1st), 36/7; Dolphins -18 (22nd), 31/13

Complete Passes per Game: Patriots 26.1 (5th); Dolphins 22.5 (18th)

Incomplete Passes per Game: Patriots 14.2 (24th); Dolphins 12.0 (23rd)

Quarterback Sacks per Game: Patriots 2.4 (17th); Dolphins 1.9 (27th)

Sack Yardage Lost per Game: Patriots 14.1 (11th); Dolphins 14.1 (22nd)

Miami Dolphins Offense versus New England Patriots Defense

Scoring: Dolphins 19.3 (27th); Patriots 19.7 (8th)

Yardage: Dolphins 325 (27th); Patriots 333 (7th)

First Downs: Dolphins 18.1 (30th); Patriots 18.5 (7th)

Yards per Play: Dolphins 5.4 (17th); Patriots 5.2 (6th)

Yards per Drive: Dolphins 27.8 (29th); Patriots 28.4 (6th)

Points per Drive: Dolphins 1.53 (28th); Patriots 1.58 (7th)

Drive Success Rate: Dolphins .659 (30th); Patriots .664 (8th)

Points per Play: Dolphins .321 (22nd); Patriots .304 (6th)

Touchdowns per Game: Dolphins 2.5 (18th); Patriots 2.3 (9th)

Red Zone Touchdowns per Game: Dolphins 1.4 (24th); Patriots 1.5 (8th)

Red Zone TD Percentage: Dolphins 53.9% (21st); Patriots 57.9% (17th)

Plays per Game: Dolphins 60.3 (28th); Patriots 64.6 (20th)

Third Down Conversions per Game: Dolphins 3.7 (31st); Patriots 5.1 (14th)

Third Down Conversion Percentage: Dolphins 29.3% (30th); Patriots 36.5% (9th)

Punts per Score: Dolphins 1.8 (30th); Patriots 1.5 (3rd)

Punts per Game: Dolphins 5.8 (30th); Patriots 5.4 (4th)

Rushing Yards: Dolphins 93.3 (27th); Patriots 98.9 (8th)

Yards per Carry: Dolphins 4.52 (9th); Patriots 4.09 (14th)

Passing Yards: Dolphins 231 (22nd); Patriots 234 (11th)

Yards per Pass Attempt: Dolphins 7.1 (19th); Patriots 6.9 (10th)

Completion Percentage: Dolphins 61.8% (20th); Patriots 60.2% (9th)

Passer Rating: Dolphins 87.2 (20th); Patriots 85.3 (10th)

TD Passes/Picks: Dolphins +10 (18th), 22/12; Patriots -10 (12th), 22/12

Complete Passes per Game: Dolphins 22.7 (15th); Patriots 22.4 (17th)

Incomplete Passes per Game: Dolphins 14.0 (20th); Patriots 14.8 (6th)

Quarterback Sacks per Game: Dolphins 2.9 (26th); Patriots 3.2 (2nd)

Sack Yardage Lost: Dolphins 27.5 (32nd); Patriots 23.3 (1st)

Turnovers

Patriot Giveaways: 0.9 (1st); Dolphin Takeaways: 1.1 (25th)

Dolphin Giveaways: 1.3 (11th); Patriot Takeaways: 1.4 (16th)

Penalties

Penalties per Game: Patriots 5.9 (4th); Dolphins 8.3 (28th)

Penalty Yards per Game: Patriots 54.6 (9th); Dolphins 66.5 (25th)

Opponent Penalties per Game: Patriots 6.8 (18th); Dolphins 7.6 (6th)

Opponent Penalty Yards per Game: Patriots 61.3 (13th); Dolphins 64.3 (8th)

Football Outsiders Statistics and Rankings

Team Efficiency: Weighted DVOA: Patriots 21.6% (7th); Dolphins -24.2% (31st)

Team Efficiency: Offense DVOA: Patriots 17.2% (5th); Dolphins -10.2% (26th)

Team Efficiency: Defense DVOA: Patriots -5.2% (11th); Dolphins 10.9% (30th)

Special Teams DVOA: Patriots 4.6% (3rd); Dolphins -2.6% (24th)

Expect the New England offense to perform much better than it did last week. Let’s give credit where it is due: the Jet defense is one of the best in the NFL. The Patriots should be able to run the ball more effectively and also have much better success on third down than they did last week, which will lead to more scoring opportunities – and at the same time keep the Patriot defense off the field, allowing them to be less gassed and more effective as they battle the Florida humidity.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Dolphins 20

NFL Week 17 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread