Will our WRs make plays out of the slot? + Will Brady be able to adapt and master the vertical game?

[Soul_Survivor88]

More of the same analysis. Not sure I feel there is enough context, given all the different factors affecting Brady's performance. Still, some intriguing insights with gifs and film:

Chiefs Defense Was Phenomenal Against Tom Brady To Start the 2017 Season

• Playing in a system that encourages quick throws underneath and in between 10-15 yards has allowed Brady to develop as one of the game’s greatest players. But last season, Brady ranked 16th among quarterbacks on throws of 16 or more yards and 20th on throws of 20+ yards.

• The Chiefs' defensive plan stressed Brady’s weaknesses and suffocated his strengths. With the constant three-man rushes, the Chiefs defense was able to cover the underneath routes in which the Patriots’ offense has consistently thrived on for years. Brady was 6/8 (with a drop) for only 33 yards on underneath throws, with none of those completions going over 8 yards.

• With Brady forced to throw downfield, his accuracy waned. On throws of 16+ air yards, Brady had 96 yards, but was only 3/16 from that range.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Everyone was talking about our backs being able to be era and didn't much of it last night.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

On the flip side....

 

[aluminum seats]

You are actually surprised that the team decided that the experienced veteran they brought in to replace Wes Welker was the main target for an offense that's reliant on the quick, timing routes? Seriously?

He had 6 catches for 100 yards before taking the knee to the helmet on the punt return. It was working just fine. They had 27 points in the third quarter, and almost certainly would've scored again, had he not been injured.

I understand what you're saying, and he's the obvious guy to step in here, but I really think it would be a mistake to put too much on his shoulders.

He is a fantastic complementary piece, particularly in the playoffs, and can take center stage for the occasional game. But I just don't think he's built to shoulder that much of a load over the long haul.

 

[skinnydog]

The loss of Edelman seems to have changed complexion of the Patriots offense. No matter how you spin it, a traditionally horizontal offense going heavy vertical is an adjustment that takes time.

There were so many more vertical throws from Brady than I'm accustomed to seeing. The stats (courtesy of @ScottBarrettDFB) bear this out:

• Tom Brady's average depth of target today was 16.1. Across 142 games this past decade, his prior high was only 13.6.
• 47.3% of Tom Brady's passes traveled 15+ yards through the air. Once again, this was the highest this past decade, with his average rate being 20.0%.

I'm not worried about Tom's ability. The velocity is still clearly there. At this point, it's all about adjusting to an offensive system that's likely to become increasingly vertical.

Meanwhile.....while Brady seemed to force an usual amount of deep throws, I also observed a lack of solid slot receiver plays from three WRs better suited to making plays outside the numbers or down the field:

Cooks: 39 routes, 21% slot
Hogan: 39 routes, 64% slot
Dorsett: 15 routes, 20% slot

Again, small sample size, and this is just one game to start the season. But with Amendola out on concussion protocol and Mitchell on IR, the Patriots only have 3 receivers (Dorsett, Cooks, Hogan) who are all better vertically than horizontally and a QB who is better throwing horizontally than vertically!

This could take time to gel...... but I trust in Bill and believe in Tom. And with a healty Gronk and a talented backfield, I am confident the offense will return to its usual form! GO PATS!!!!!

Guys weren't open and Brady does/did start throwing deep and usually overthrowing his receiver to avoid throwing into the coverage and risking an interception. The offensive game plan was pretty poor.

 

[mgteich]

Someone will emerge as out slot receiver, in addition to ground and our RB's. My guess is Cooks.

The loss of Edelman seems to have changed complexion of the Patriots offense. No matter how you spin it, a traditionally horizontal offense going heavy vertical is an adjustment that takes time.

There were so many more vertical throws from Brady than I'm accustomed to seeing. The stats (courtesy of @ScottBarrettDFB) bear this out:

• Tom Brady's average depth of target today was 16.1. Across 142 games this past decade, his prior high was only 13.6.
• 47.3% of Tom Brady's passes traveled 15+ yards through the air. Once again, this was the highest this past decade, with his average rate being 20.0%.

I'm not worried about Tom's ability. The velocity is still clearly there. At this point, it's all about adjusting to an offensive system that's likely to become increasingly vertical.

Meanwhile.....while Brady seemed to force an usual amount of deep throws, I also observed a lack of solid slot receiver plays from three WRs better suited to making plays outside the numbers or down the field:

Cooks: 39 routes, 21% slot
Hogan: 39 routes, 64% slot
Dorsett: 15 routes, 20% slot

Again, small sample size, and this is just one game to start the season. But with Amendola out on concussion protocol and Mitchell on IR, the Patriots only have 3 receivers (Dorsett, Cooks, Hogan) who are all better vertically than horizontally and a QB who is better throwing horizontally than vertically!

This could take time to gel...... but I trust in Bill and believe in Tom. And with a healty Gronk and a talented backfield, I am confident the offense will return to its usual form! GO PATS!!!!!

 

[NG Pats Fan]

Someone will emerge as out slot receiver, in addition to ground and our RB's. My guess is Cooks.

Not cooks game. He's small, not very physical. He's very fast and competitive though, great burner. Find him in open space. But he's not a slot catch in traffic take big hits over the middle guy.

.definitrly not his game

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Guys weren't open and Brady does/did start throwing deep and usually overthrowing his receiver to avoid throwing into the coverage and risking an interception. The offensive game plan was pretty poor.

True. A lot of those overthrows went out of bounds or well away from DBs.

But the concern isn't just the accuracy of the deep throws, but the accuracy and the loss of key personnel in the short-to- intermediate range passing game, where timing and chemistry are most pivotal.

In 2015, the Patriots lost both games without Edelman and Amendola - to teams who were quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler and Ryan Fitzpatrick! Without Edelman, Brady's passer rating drops to 86.4 (below the league average of 89.5). Brady is now 40 and without both Edelman and Amendola.

The difference between 2015 and now is I believe that Brady's pass protection was no where near as good as it is now. But history suggests that - in the short term - Brady won't be as successful without Edelman and Amendola. He will likely regress this year due to age and injuries around him, but I can't see it being as bad as Manning (who had nerve issues in addition to age).

 

[supafly]

I understand what you're saying, and he's the obvious guy to step in here, but I really think it would be a mistake to put too much on his shoulders.

He is a fantastic complementary piece, particularly in the playoffs, and can take center stage for the occasional game. But I just don't think he's built to shoulder that much of a load over the long haul.

Unfortunately, you're probably correct, but he would've helped tremendously in terms of allowing a gradual transition over the first 4-6 games while the others became more comfortable in other roles. If he could somehow even manage to play 12 games, I would consider it a major success.

Also, this is 3 yrs in a row where this dude has somehow managed to get hurt fielding a freaking punt, so if anything, they should mesh some of Brandon Llyod's old "get the phuck down" philosophy with using Amendola exclusively in the slot. I was all for using him on fair catches and crucial "sure hands" PR situations (not as a pure returner, especially after the news on Mitchell), but now I'm not even sure about that, anymore. He's like a freaking walking catastrophe.

 

[supafly]

Not cooks game. He's small, not very physical. He's very fast and competitive though, great burner. Find him in open space. But he's not a slot catch in traffic take big hits over the middle guy.

.definitrly not his game

While I agree with you, people are openly suggesting the use of guys like Lewis, White, and Burkhead in the slot, so....same philosophy, possibly even worse.

I believe that mgteich is correct that Cooks would be forced to see increased reps from the slot, possibly up to 40%. He saw 20% on Thursday night. That's not suggesting that he wouldn't be used exclusively there, but he's very likely to see an increased role in my opinion.

 

[Tony2046]

Yeah how dare he get a knee to his head and get concussed. Amirite ?

Also are you sure you really want to go with your Hogan take ? There are enough people here who were saying from early in preseason that Dola is the more important player compared to Hogan because he is the only real slot depth whereas Hogan is someone who can do a lot but is master of none of it.

Wow. I forgot about that debate. hahahhahaha. How the tables have turned.

 

[skinnydog]

True. A lot of those overthrows went out of bounds or well away from DBs.

But the concern isn't just the accuracy of the deep throws, but the accuracy and the loss of key personnel in the short-to- intermediate range passing game, where timing and chemistry are most pivotal.

In 2015, the Patriots lost both games without Edelman and Amendola - to teams who were quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler and Ryan Fitzpatrick! Without Edelman, Brady's passer rating drops to 86.4 (below the league average of 89.5). Brady is now 40 and without both Edelman and Amendola.

The difference between 2015 and now is I believe that Brady's pass protection was no where near as good as it is now. But history suggests that - in the short term - Brady won't be as successful without Edelman and Amendola. He will likely regress this year due to age and injuries around him, but I can't see it being as bad as Manning (who had nerve issues in addition to age).

The guy who just set a half dozen QB Super Bowl records, who still has plenty of zip on the ball, who has textbook throwing mechanics, who still has an amazingly quick release and who reads defenses better that any QB in history will be just fine this year.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

The guy who just set a half dozen QB Super Bowl records, who still has plenty of zip on the ball, who has textbook throwing mechanics, who still has an amazingly quick release and who reads defenses better that any QB in history will be just fine this year.

Brady is the GOAT, but on some of those downfield throws, the ball appeared to be sailing when it should have been lower and straight. But you're right. Some of those throws were throwaways or the result of miscues and/or tight coverage. But others looked so inaccurate, I had to double check a few times to make sure my TV wasn't turned to Fox News

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

The guy who just set a half dozen QB Super Bowl records, who still has plenty of zip on the ball, who has textbook throwing mechanics, who still has an amazingly quick release and who reads defenses better that any QB in history will be just fine this year.

I would rate this hopeful if I could but 2 more games like last week I think Belichick would at least throw Grap on the field to see what he has.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Sunday NFL Thoughts: Alex Smith perfect throwing short, Tom Brady struggled throwing deep, who replaced Julian Edelman

“Brady and the New England passing offense was out of sync for much of the game, perhaps feeling the loss of WR Julian Edelman,” according to PFF. “The game looked similar to the 2015 games that Edelman missed, as Brady eschewed his usual short and intermediate passing game for lower percentage, longer developing routes.

“The result was a ridiculously high 2.94 seconds in the pocket (Brady usually gets rid of the ball in the 2.3-2.4 second range) and his going 5-for-19 on passes lasting 2.6 seconds or longer. Brady was 2-for-10 for 81 on deep (20-plus yard) passes, good for a passer rating of only 60.8.”

The Chiefs flooded the shorter zones of the defense and forced Tom Brady to hold on to the football and throw it deep down the sidelines. While the Patriots were content to let Alex Smith play his game, the Chiefs took away Brady’s bread-and-butter with the short routes and forced him to try and connect far down the field.

It’s important to remember that the Patriots defense that you see in week 1 will not be the same defense that you see in the second half of the year, and that the offense will also evolve.​

If the blueprint to affect Tom Brady is to have multiple All Pros on your defense, including multiple studs in the secondary and on the defensive line, then there shouldn’t be too many teams with the personnel to act out the game plan.

The Seahawks and Giants are definite problems in the NFC, with the Cardinalsa possible option. The Chiefs and Broncos are two more. The Texans need another star in the secondary to emerge, but they have the potential.

We’ll see if any other team is able to 1) shadow Chris Hogan with an All Pro cornerback; 2) shadow Rob Gronkowskiwith an All Pro safety; and 3) generate pressure on Brady with an All Pro edge defender. Hopefully a few of these teams will be eliminated over the course of the year.

​

 

[Oswlek]

There seems to be a (imo) misguided assumption that all the deep passes were intentional. I suspect it was primarily due to good defense and poor coaching.

These issues will resolve themselves as the newcomers become more fluent in the system and the coaches develop a better grasp of how to utilize them.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Really shows you how many deep attempts brady had.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

There seems to be a (imo) misguided assumption that all the deep passes were intentional. I suspect it was primarily due to good defense and poor coaching.

These issues will resolve themselves as the newcomers become more fluent in the system and the coaches develop a better grasp of how to utilize them.

Looking at the game right now. Brady sailed a lot of throws. Way more than usual. But several appeared to be by designed to keep them from being picked off. Low percentage throws with limited seperation and no straight line accuracy.



Brady just laid it out there, and hoped Hogan could make a play.

The coaches need to be creative and find ways to scheme their receivers to get open. Pick plays? Timed routes to set up over the shoulder catches? Slants?

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Also, look at the routes the receivers are running. One, maybe two guys run shorter routes, everyone else is way down field. If you have 3 guys stretching the field, why not get someone in the middle were it's alone or 1 on 1 vs a LB?

 

[Joker]

jeezus krist...one chicken little posting every chicken little tweet he can find on the net. Give it a break...and by that I mean at least EIGHT GAMES. Making these assertions of yours after one game is BEYOND moronic.