Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run???

[lillestroom]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

The message would be that Burgess is NOT a cancer and is expected to make a contribution to the 2010 division winning patriots.

The bigger message would be that Belichick believes that the best 53 make the squad, and Burgess in one of the best 53.

Cant buy that at all. Talent-wise, yes.

The fact his unprofessionality shone thru over the past weeks, no.

 

[upstater1]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

edited by mod: tzaf75 thinks Shonn Greene will have a good game against the Patriots this season..

Shonn Greene is too hyped up. i loved him at Iowa, lord knows he ran over my Nittany Lions, but his speed is definitely suspect. A good NFL back, never destined for greatness though. I have him up there with Chester Taylor, similar sized backs. I believe Taylor could give the Jets the same production behind that great line of yours.

 

[upstater1]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

I have to admit that I'm less optimistic right now about the Patriots before the season than I have been at any time since 2003-2004. I remember BEFORE the opening day game, sitting in the stands at Ralph Wilson, and telling Bills fans there was no way the Patriots were going anywhere with Antowain Smith at RB. Bledsoe then put up 31 points while Brady laid a donut. Walking out of the stadium, that was the most pessimistic I've been until now (even during the Cassel year, I was optimistically thinking Brady would come back and do a 2007 reprise).

That being said, we know how 2003-2004 ended.

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

Oddly enough, every team has concerns entering this season - in part because no team is the same team it was last season.

That's a red herring which really doesn't have anything to do with the discussion at hand. The goal for every team out there is to field the best team possible on both sides of the ball. Okay, so every team has problems. What can we do to address ours?

The JETS running game could always be better, but it's likely to be worse because they made wholesale changes this offseason that directly impact the running game. The Dolphins could run the ball last season. It isn't enough. It wasn't enough for the JETS either had two teams not rolled over for them down the stretch (and one again in the playoffs).

The following are our opponents by week and their rushing offense rank from last season: 9, 1, 16, 4, 5, 31 (tied), 13, 8, 19, 31 (tied), 24, 1, 29, 14, 16, 4. You're right, every team is different. But, in all, there are a few teams on this list which haven't faced significant turnover in their running game or O-Line since last year. Furthermore, we're facing stiff tests right off the bat with five of our first nine opponents featuring a running game that was ranked in the top ten in 2009 (this list includes Minnesota who ranked #13 but clearly has a better running game than their 13th place ranking would indicate). For this reason we should be doing all we can to address the DE situation. Maybe Gerard Warren is the answer for one of those DE slots. But the fact of the matter is that Warren has played in a two gap system before and the results were not ideal. Is Brace the answer? Damione Lewis didn't seem very stout against the run against the Saints either, which might be one of the reasons why Brace spent some time with the first stringers both in mini-camp and today as well. Wright is good against the pass, but was somewhat of a liability against the run last season. So is the answer on staff? Maybe. If it isn't, I would hope that the team is looking outside of their current staff and on the phone with any team that will listen in order to acquire a DE that won't be a liability against the run.

Games are generally won and lost in the trenches and based on QB play.

Exactly. If we have liabilities in the trenches on the defensive side of the ball, the better rushing teams in the league are going to be able to sustain long drives which will then keep the best QB in the league off the field for longer periods of time. That won't be good.

We also have a lot more talent and speed behind them than we've had in almost a decade.

All that speed won't matter for anything, though, if the defensive line is getting pushed backward.

We also have the best QB and established WR corps in the division by a mile. We appear to have drafted two potential stud TE's and signed a fine veteran blocking TE in FA. If we can pass block reasonable well and run block a little better than we have been, the defense isn't going to have to stonewall anyone.

If the defense is giving up huge gains and sustained drives off the edges, we're going to need that quarterback and all of those weapons to go on long, sustained drives themselves in order to keep that defense off of the field. That's generally not an ingrediant for a Super Bowl win. On the other hand, if we establish a D-Line that's as stingy against the run as some of our other D-Lines have been in past years to go along with that offense, we're an instant Super Bowl contender.

What I saw out of the first team defense that was already absent Warren on Thursday night was not only encouraging, it was exciting. Mistakes were made here and there, but that's what the pre season is for, learning from mistakes. Again, given who we were up against, I'm feeling pretty good about this team. Everyone else has or will have injuries to deal with too.

Thursday night is just a small sample size, though. The times in which Gerard Warren was able to make his presence known in the backfield came on plays in which blocking assignments were missed. Other than that, he looked okay. If the team feels that he or the other DE spot can be upgraded, I certainly hope that they look into ways of doing so.

 

[Nunchucks]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

Best way to stop the run is to have Tom Brady and Randy Moss on the same team

 

[OldNEPatsFan]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

Having a line that can stop the run is essential, but you also have to have a line that can rush the passer. In 03, 04 and 07 the Pats had the 4th, 6th, and 10th ranked rush defenses, but the also had the 6th, 3rd and 2nd ranked sack defense. In those 3 years the DL accounted for 40% of the sack total. Last year the defense ranked 13th in rush defense but 23rd in sacks, with the DL accounting for 20% of the sacks, a 50% drop off in production.

 

[mgteich]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

You seem to care a lot about sacks. That how you measure "production". Did you know that half the teams in the top 10 in sacks in 2009 had losing records? Cleveland and Washington were in the top 10.

I'd rather be in the top ten in points allowed, or in wins.

The patriots were #5 in points allowed, the really important stat. Even when some put together an overall defensive stat, the patriots were somewhere between 10 and 12.

The defense we had last year was good enough to bring us the division and would do so this eyar with the same stats as last year. It is NOT an increase in stats that is crucial.

Having a line that can stop the run is essential, but you also have to have a line that can rush the passer. In 03, 04 and 07 the Pats had the 4th, 6th, and 10th ranked rush defenses, but the also had the 6th, 3rd and 2nd ranked sack defense. In those 3 years the DL accounted for 40% of the sack total. Last year the defense ranked 13th in rush defense but 23rd in sacks, with the DL accounting for 20% of the sacks, a 50% drop off in production.

 

[patsfan-1982]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

Having a line that can stop the run is essential, but you also have to have a line that can rush the passer. In 03, 04 and 07 the Pats had the 4th, 6th, and 10th ranked rush defenses, but the also had the 6th, 3rd and 2nd ranked sack defense. In those 3 years the DL accounted for 40% of the sack total. Last year the defense ranked 13th in rush defense but 23rd in sacks, with the DL accounting for 20% of the sacks, a 50% drop off in production.

3 of TBC's sacks came at DE 4 of burgess sacks came at DE wright had 5 sacks 1 of AD's sacks came at DE green and warren, had a sack


thats 15 of the pats 31 sacks almost 50% of the sacks came from the Dline last year. my point is... that stat that you keeping talking about means notting

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

. Maybe Gerard Warren is the answer for one of those DE slots. But the fact of the matter is that Warren has played in a two gap system before and the results were not ideal.

I'm not going to get in the middle of this, but I keep hearing the above comment. Can you expand on it? Where was he playing as a 2gap DL with poor results?

 

[jsull87]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

Sorry and all that, but I'm not buying into what I saw against NOS.

With Warren out for the season, its left Mike Wright as our best DE. And in my eyes, he's a much improved player but better as a situational starter rather than first choice.

I look at our fixtures. Some teams who like to run the pigskin. I see that our OLB's may now be put under even more pressure and with a rookie ILB likely to start (Spikes) I can see most teams grounding the ball in against us.

I'd like to hope that Warren and Lewis can contribute, but I see a real need for Bill to pull the trigger on a trade here. It may be a problem which eats up our season before it begins.

i understand your point but i don't get including spikes in it. wouldn't runing the ball play right into his strength? where the knock on him is he doesn't have enough speed to play in space?

But i agree about the line although i think it will be similar to last year with the other warren seeming to have stepped up pretty well so far. I am hoping one of brace or lewis can take the other side on running downs... hoping not expecting

 

[lillestroom]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

i understand your point but i don't get including spikes in it. wouldn't runing the ball play right into his strength? where the knock on him is he doesn't have enough speed to play in space?

But i agree about the line although i think it will be similar to last year with the other warren seeming to have stepped up pretty well so far. I am hoping one of brace or lewis can take the other side on running downs... hoping not expecting

Maybe Pryor can be a flyer here and take one of the sides?

Most teams are likely to test both Cunningham and Spikes in the early parts of their rookie season by directing the run towards them. Lots of rookies have been found out by the intensity and power of the pro-game. Many get "ground down". Thats what I'd be doing. Truth is... our strength on D is our secondary.

I'm hoping above hope that we can down the run. In no way do I mean that we are likely to become a "wall" but as long as we dont bleed against teams with the skin on the ground, I'll be happy.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

Warren being out might be a huge hole, or it might be an opportunity to see some very talented younger players step up. Most likely it will be a biggish hole early in the season, and will become less of a liability as the next 2-gap DE candidate gets his feet wet against NFL offensive lines. The Pats' notion of "interchangeable parts" has never really been true, per se, but they have always been able to compensate for weaknesses in one or another area by being conscious of the downgrade in personnel due to injury. The D has been in the top 3rd of the league consistently, sometimes in the top 5. If our D "doesn't scare anybody," that's definitely a bad thing. But the Pats' D has never been a lights-out Bears '86 phenomenon (as cool as that would be). It has been a good enough D to let the offense win games.

Listen, when your number 6 receiver was until recently Torry Holt - even at this point in his career - you do have the capacity to come back against teams.

Nobody likes injuries. Nobody likes taking a flyer when you're getting good play out of the incumbent at a position. But that's about the only way we ever try out our "spare parts" in Pats-land. So yeah it's a bad thing that we have to roll the dice, vs. a healthy Warren - but it does hold the possibility of even improving over Warren's performance (eventually.) Bear in mind that our real test typically comes in the post-season -- when that next guy will have a full season under his belt.

Do I get nervous thinking "no Seymour, no Warren, OMG, the sky is falling"? Sorta kinda. But it's more like a D that I was starting to think might really lock down opponents starting this season has one question mark, one that might really hurt us the first few games especially.

Do I think we miss the playoffs? Not a chance. This team is young (despite the predictable bromides we'll probably still hear about the Pats getting so old). It will get better as the year progresses, not worse.

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

I'm not going to get in the middle of this, but I keep hearing the above comment. Can you expand on it? Where was he playing as a 2gap DL with poor results?

From what I know, the Broncos were playing two gap under Jim Bates, who then traded Warren to the Raiders to bring in Sam Adams and somebody else.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

From what I know, the Broncos were playing two gap under Jim Bates, who then traded Warren to the Raiders to bring in Sam Adams and somebody else.

The Broncos scheme in 2007 could best be described as utter chaos. Bates wasn't even the DC, he was hired to be one but Shanny then decided to promote a croney from within and Bates was given the title of Asst. HC/Defense. They were supposedly transitioning from Coyer (now Indy's DC so I assume he was a Tampa 2 guy). Players say there was no committment to any one system that season, and that was the crux of the problem. Bates was let go after one season while Shanny's defense continued to flounder leading ultimately to his being let go... Like I said, inefficent or incompetent coaching can impact a players success. Warren has never had an opportunity to play in a well established 2 gap system let alone for a DC of Belichick's stature .

After just one season, defensive coordinator Bates out in Denver - NFL - ESPN

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

The Broncos scheme in 2007 could best be described as utter chaos. Bates wasn't even the DC, he was hired to be one but Shanny then decided to promote a croney from within and Bates was given the title of Asst. HC/Defense. They were supposedly transitioning from Coyer (now Indy's DC so I assume he was a Tampa 2 guy). Players say there was no committment to any one system that season, and that was the crux of the problem. Bates was let go after one season while Shanny's defense continued to flounder leading ultimately to his being let go... Like I said, inefficent or incompetent coaching can impact a players success. Warren has never had an opportunity to play in a well established 2 gap system let alone for a DC of Belichick's stature .

After just one season, defensive coordinator Bates out in Denver - NFL - ESPN

Hm. I had thought that they were running a two gap system back then and maintained it when they promoted Bates. I could be wrong. I know Coyer is now coordinating a Tampa-2 in Indy this year, but I thought that he was running a two gap in Denver and when he was replaced by Bates, they moved Warren because they thought that he was a better fit in a one gap system while Sam Adams was ideal for them.

Regardless, though, let me just remind everyone that most people here considered Warren to be an inside guy and a JAG when we first signed him. Now that he's going to be a start, he's the automatic answer who will work wonders for our defense and make us forget about Seymour and Warren.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/336006-patriots-sign-gerard-warren.html

Furthermore, for every guy that BB has rescued from bad teams and bad coaching, there is another guy that he brought in that still either played like garbage or just looked like a JAG. Of course, after only one preseason game, we can't make a judgment either way and need a bigger body of work to look at. With that said, I'm not exactly sure what you saw out of him that inspired you. The couple of times I saw him get into the backfield resulted from blown blocking assignments along the Saints' offensive line. Other than that, he looked like a standard defensive lineman. A JAG, if you will. Other than that, I didn't see anything to be overly impressed about.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

Our front 7 lost Jarvis Green, a banged up Ty Warren, and a worthless Adalius Thomas.

Gained G Warren, Lewis, healthier Mayo, Spikes who looks to make an impact right away, with hopeful contributions from Cunningham and Brace/Pryor with one year under their belt.

So on paper I feel we've definitely upgraded the run D from last year (taking into account that Warren was not his 100%), whether it's enough remains to be seen but Thursday was encouraging.

But that doesn't satsify a SAS et al. He wants to be out front and the pre-eminent suave "told-you-so, Chicken-Little.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

That's a red herring which really doesn't have anything to do with the discussion at hand. The goal for every team out there is to field the best team possible on both sides of the ball. Okay, so every team has problems. What can we do to address ours?



The following are our opponents by week and their rushing offense rank from last season: 9, 1, 16, 4, 5, 31 (tied), 13, 8, 19, 31 (tied), 24, 1, 29, 14, 16, 4. You're right, every team is different. But, in all, there are a few teams on this list which haven't faced significant turnover in their running game or O-Line since last year. Furthermore, we're facing stiff tests right off the bat with five of our first nine opponents featuring a running game that was ranked in the top ten in 2009 (this list includes Minnesota who ranked #13 but clearly has a better running game than their 13th place ranking would indicate). For this reason we should be doing all we can to address the DE situation. Maybe Gerard Warren is the answer for one of those DE slots. But the fact of the matter is that Warren has played in a two gap system before and the results were not ideal. Is Brace the answer? Damione Lewis didn't seem very stout against the run against the Saints either, which might be one of the reasons why Brace spent some time with the first stringers both in mini-camp and today as well. Wright is good against the pass, but was somewhat of a liability against the run last season. So is the answer on staff? Maybe. If it isn't, I would hope that the team is looking outside of their current staff and on the phone with any team that will listen in order to acquire a DE that won't be a liability against the run.



Exactly. If we have liabilities in the trenches on the defensive side of the ball, the better rushing teams in the league are going to be able to sustain long drives which will then keep the best QB in the league off the field for longer periods of time. That won't be good.



All that speed won't matter for anything, though, if the defensive line is getting pushed backward.



If the defense is giving up huge gains and sustained drives off the edges, we're going to need that quarterback and all of those weapons to go on long, sustained drives themselves in order to keep that defense off of the field. That's generally not an ingrediant for a Super Bowl win. On the other hand, if we establish a D-Line that's as stingy against the run as some of our other D-Lines have been in past years to go along with that offense, we're an instant Super Bowl contender.



Thursday night is just a small sample size, though. The times in which Gerard Warren was able to make his presence known in the backfield came on plays in which blocking assignments were missed. Other than that, he looked okay. If the team feels that he or the other DE spot can be upgraded, I certainly hope that they look into ways of doing so.

All of your observations are true, but misleading. The weakness of the Team was against the run last season, despite the incessant blithering about OLBs and Pass Rush. Seymour was suddenly gone, Warren played dinged, Guyton is another Will and more akin to Mayo than a Mike partner. Mackenzie was IRed. Which forced both to try to play Mike at times with imperfect results. The secondary suffered from the lack of a really good SS to take Rodney's position, and general lack of experience and a competent 3rd CB. A Bears FA/cut pickup was the best we had. The Pats in 2009 could not stop the run very well.

Yet all they yielded was 110 Yards per game; its not like they were an open door for 200 ypg. The Defense was a lot weaker than it appears to be today, and so was the limited Welker/Moss Offense.

Only the elite teams could sustain drives into the red zone, and then into the endzone against the Pats. The Pats were 10-6, not 6-10. They were 5th in Points Against; were second fewest in opponent's red zone opportunities.

This 2010 Edition already appears to be stronger than last year's club. The CBs are better/deeper than at any time in the 2000 decade,even without a single superstar CB. The ILBs now have a pair of Wills and a pair of Mikes; with potential Stars leading at both positions, in Mayo and Spikes. The Defensive line had four #1 picks before Warren 's IR, but still has 3, like the glory days, and in Wright, Pryor and possibly Brace or someone emerging from the cast of thousands auditions, has at least two adequate rotation players.

I'm reminded of the old Proverb: "I was unhappy because I had holes in the soles of my shoes, until I saw a man who had no legs..."

 

[Metaphors]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

I'm reminded of the old Proverb: "I was unhappy because I had holes in the soles of my shoes, until I saw a man who had no legs..."

This is the part that I don't get from some people. If the Pats are limping in their run defense, the Saints are crawling and the Colts have slogging through deep mud with broken legs. Last time I looked, nobody was digging graves for those teams.

You just can't isolate one part of the game without considering the others. The Pats have enough strength in other areas to make up for breaking in some new talent at DE and OLB.

I have no problem if people want to dump the Pats D off a cliff...just make sure that the broken bodies of the Saints and Colts are already at the bottom. Otherwise, the thing smashed on the rocks below would be your credibility.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

Having a line that can stop the run is essential, but you also have to have a line that can rush the passer. In 03, 04 and 07 the Pats had the 4th, 6th, and 10th ranked rush defenses, but the also had the 6th, 3rd and 2nd ranked sack defense. In those 3 years the DL accounted for 40% of the sack total. Last year the defense ranked 13th in rush defense but 23rd in sacks, with the DL accounting for 20% of the sacks, a 50% drop off in production.

Well done research! It confirms what I have been saying, for a long time.

The pass rush from elsewhere than OLB, was what was missing in 2009. Its not just a OLB problem. In addition to the defensive line falling off, with Seymour gone, the interior ILB blitz pass rush disappeared, with the Bruschi departure. As did the Safety blitz when Rodney retired.

But Lewis and GWarren were penetrating D linemen most of their careers, so internal pressure from the Dline should improve, so it's not all on Mike Wright.

Spikes, playing Mike, had a collegiate reputation as a blitzer, whereas Guyton who is really another Will like Mayo, does not. Letting Mayo return to Will where he is is best and conmfortable, should let him re-emerge. Pat Chung had a fearsome reputation as a blitzer in college and now that he has/is maturing enough to take over at SS, the secondary blitz should return too.

 

[ausbacker]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

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