Whats the next tie breaker??

[jmt57]

I accept what you are saying til you get to them being close. Its impossible to 100% completely fair and to play the exact same schedule I understand. We play the better teams which "should/could" have better records being better teams last year. Now I know it doesnt always hold true(look at the NFC south!)but playing the Colts vs playing the Titans is in this case an "unfair" advantage for the pats dont you think? And to lose out on the top seed overall in the playoffs due to scheduling.....ouch!

If I'm not mistaken the only time I used the word "close" was in terms of the strength of victory and strength of schedule tiebreakers. I didn't bother to compare the two but I'm presuming the two tiebreakers are very close at this point. That is what my comment was referring to; I wasn't trying to compare the Colts to the Texans or the Titans. And I certainly was not trying to imply that this team or that team had some advantage - much less an unfair advantage.

A lot of people complain about the schedule, but give me a break and please don't put words in my mouth. I never tied to say that. Not sure how you jumped from my saying the SOV and SOS between the two teams are probably pretty close to thinking I'm trying to imply an unfavorable schedule. The NFL schedule with it's current division rotation is just about as fair as you could possibly make it.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

A tiebreaking scenario we are all wondering about...

Please merge this with the other tiebreaker thread, but I'm thinking keep this as the top post.

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.

The Patriots have the better record now, and a divisional loss to Buffalo or Miami would put them in second, assuming the Jets win out. In fact, we are going to assume the Jets win out, since another Jets loss would essentially seal it.

Let's suppose the Patriots lose to either Green Bay or Chicago, win three of their last four, and the Jets win out.

Head to Head- Tied

Division record- Tied

Common Games- Miami, Buffalo, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota

The loss to Chicago/GB would put the Patriots at 10-2 in common games, and the Jets winning out would put them at 10-2. Tied.

Conference Record- Patriots 10-2. Jets 10-2. Tied.

Strength of Victory- Here is the tiebreaker that it would come down to. In this scenario, it is best to just separate which games the Patriots have won that the Jets have not, and vice versa. Assuming the Jets win out, it neutralizes the Pats win over the Steelers. We'll also take the Bears as neutralized, as this assumes the Jets will beat the Bears, and regardless of whether the Patriots beat the Packers or Bears, the teams have essentially the same record within a game.

The Pats would have beaten the Ravens, Colts, and Chargers. Currently those teams total 20 wins.

The Jets would have beaten the Browns, Broncos, and Texans. Currently those teams have 13 wins.

What does this mean?

The Patriots would very likely still win the division if they lose either next Sunday at Chicago, or the Sunday after vs. Green Bay. Of course, they would then no longer be in complete control of their own destiny, so obviously a win would be huge. If the Patriots take care of their remaining two home games and beat the Bills, then even if the Jets run the table, the Patriots are still the number one seed unless the Browns, Broncos, and Texans combine for 7-8 more wins the rest of the way than the Colts, Chargers, and Ravens. Not sure what Vegas odds would rate this scenario of the Jets opponents overtaking the Patriots opponents, but at first glance it would appear to be under 5%.

So in other words, the Patriots are looking pretty good for the division crown at the moment and even a loss at Chicago would probably not make tonight's win all for naught.

 

[jmt57]

Re: A tiebreaking scenario we are all wondering about...

Nice analysis. I hadn't bothered to break it down to the strength of victory tiebreaker yet.

So what it comes down to is if the Pats and Jets tie, if the Pats loss is to one of the NFC North teams then the Pats are still in good shape to win the division.

However, if the two teams end up in a tie and the Jets beat both Buffalo and Miami but the Pats lose to one of those two teams, then the Jets win the AFCE based on the division record.


Bottom line is that every game is still vitally important. No breathing room until the Pats have at least a two-game lead.