Trade up, trade down or stay put?

[carolinatony]

Past History tells us BB will trade a 1st back to next year and pick up a 1 next year and a 2nd this year.
Trade another 2 back till next year as well

What I want but will never happen is keep both #1's and trade both 2's to move up so we get three #1' picks.
With three #1's; we SHOULD be able to get 3 Solid players that can help us get back to the SB next year. I am tired of VALUE.

Your phone is ringing and its BB, he asks you your thoughts and you tell him.....

 

[Sciz]

Impossible to say now. All depends who falls. I wouldn't trade up to get Claiborne at pick 6, but it's different if he's available at 12, for example.

 

[mtbpats]

I like the trades into next year, it provides years of extra second round picks. If we could get that for both picks I would do it. 3 firsts next year and 4 seconds this year

 

[patsfanboy]

I'll say trade our 3rd round pick, we have a bad reputation with them.

 

[manxman2601]

I'd like them to trade back for at least one later pick and grab Ryan Broyles and/or Greg Childs.

 

[Water Boy]

I'd be ok with a slight trade up for Poe or Claiborne. Overall I not super jazzed on this draft. I would not be surprised if BB trades out of the first round all together. I think we can fill some holes through FA this year.

 

[zimmy]

It really depends who is there and how the draft shakes out. I think getting a good 3-4 DE is a priority as there doesn't seem too much in free agency. If Cox, Poe or Brockers is there around the 20 mark, I would like a trade up to secure one. Then pick up Barron/Gilmore/Smith in the late 1st/early 2nd. An OLB like McLellin and a 3rd round wide receiver - Criner perhaps.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Impossible to say now. All depends who falls. I wouldn't trade up to get Claiborne at pick 6, but it's different if he's available at 12, for example.

Claiborne will fall further than that...maybe into the 20s or more because of his 40 times. Maybe he will do better than that the pro days....but he is a faller now.

That being said .... BB will definitely trade down; bank on it. He does not have any picks after 4; there is no way he goes into day 3 with 1 pick. No way.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Claiborne will fall further than that...maybe into the 20s or more because of his 40 times. Maybe he will do better than that the pro days....but he is a faller now.

That being said .... BB will definitely trade down; bank on it. He does not have any picks after 4; there is no way he goes into day 3 with 1 pick. No way.

I don't see Claiborne falling at all. His official 40 time was solid enough at 4.50 and I'm sure he will improve it at his pro day because the official combine times are almost always slower. And with CB being a high demand position and this being a relatively weak class at the top, he is clearly the top guy. I think Tampa Bay is still the favorites to grab him at 5, although Minnesota could be a darkhorse at 3. Either way I don't see him getting out of the top 10.

 

[stevedogc]

I think BB will trade back as he always does. Unless their is a certain player that slips a bit, Claiborne, Brockers, Poe or Cox for example. The more I read about this draft the more I think its not very deep. I think the Pats will sign their own FA's, pick up a few UFA's to fill needs (WR, S, CB, TE) and then acquire picks for next years draft by trading down and some later picks in this years draft. Then drafting the BPA in this years draft.

 

[sevengables_2207]

If I had to guess I would say they trade back out of the first round. I would add that how aggressive they are in FA will have some bearing on whether they move up/trade back/or stay pat and use their first round picks this upcoming April

 

[VrabelJr]

If I had to guess I would say they trade back out of the first round. I would add that how aggressive they are in FA will have some bearing on whether they move up/trade back/or stay pat and use their first round picks this upcoming April

Exactly. There is little difference between talent at the end of the 1st and the 2nd round this year. Trade back and pick up some 4th-7th rounders + picks for next year in the process. The only way we shouldn't do this is if some supreme talent happens to fall to us.

 

[ay-yo]

I could see us trading 28 and a 3rd for a slight move up. We could even do 28 and 63 for a higher 1 and 2 later round picks.

31 has Mark Barron's name written on it, at least in my mind.

 

[Ivan]

It depends solely upon how they see this draft and how it actually falls on draft day. If they see a player they think will be an all pro caliber player once the top 10 are gone they can make the move to 11 at best with their firsts, and now that the rookie scales are revised radically I wouldn't put it past Belichik to go after a player he sees as an impact player instead of standing pat. If it were up to me at this point and the draft were held tomorrow i would trade both firsts for Keuchly, who i have come to believe is going to be a great NFL player. I'm seeing a player like Bruschi without the learning curve to play LB. Pure nose for the ball, pure football player. I would take one serious impact player in the first over 2 guys who may be good.

 

[DarrylS]

Due to the new collective bargaining agreement and the rookie wage scale, previous draft history is pretty much thrown out the window. The economic system that the Patriots employ, will be less of a factor in this draft than it has been in previous drafts.. they are not forced to overpay for unproven draft picks..

Can see the Pats using all of their picks in the first two rounds this year.. with that being said, now they will do exactly the opposite of my prediction.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

We have to look at the facts.

First, this draft has only about 18 or so kids with first round grades and we pick at #27 and #31. So what team is going to want to be to trade into the first round for a second round talent?

Second there are only four QB's available (P Manning, Flynn, Luck and Griffin) to fill the needs of seven clubs that need a QB. However unlike last year, no teams appear willing to take a Weedon or Osmierer or Tannyhill in the first round. Not really good for us.

Third Free agency has yet to play out, but traditionally BB fills holes with Free agency and uses the draft to create depth and competition.

I think BB would love to trade completely out of the first round. However the chances of finding a trade partner are slim. Therefore he has to stay and pick or trade up.

I would like to see us trade #27 and #31 for a pick in the #15 to #18 range and a 2013 second round pick, if the right player is there.

 

[borg]

Trade #27 for '12 #2 (henceforth referred to as NEW #2A) and '13 #1....expect a playoff caliber team to reach here)

Trade #31 for '12 #2 (henceforth referred to as NEW #2B) and '13 #2....Don't see another team playing the BB game of one #1 for a #1 and a #2....so BB has to work a little harder........This trade is with a team with a high #2.

Reset Pats draft order (3 Rounds)
2012.....New #2A, #48, New #2B, #63, #95
2013..Pats assigned picks rds 1-7 plus New #1, New #2

2012 Draft continued
Trade NEW #2B for '13 #1 plus a '12 #4
Trade #48 for a '13 #1
Trade NEW #2A for '13 #2 plus a '12 #3
Trade #63 for '13 #2

Reset Pats draft order
2012...New #3, #95, New #4, #127 (Approx)
2013....Pats assigned picks rds 1-7, 3 New #1s, 3 New #2s, 1 New #3, 1 New #4
Summary of total picks for 2013:
4 #1s
4 #2s
2 #3s
2 #4s
1 #5
1 #6
1 #7

2013 Draft...rinse and repeat

Point of this exercise: Sacrificing one draft under the Belichick draft system can set up a franchise for decades of endless draft bounty.
Why now: Brady's age, surplus cap space.....free agent vets come on board now capable of winning now.
The BB legacy: Imagine the goodwill BB will receive when he finally hands over the reigns (and 20 extra draft picks) to his disciples

Of course this won't happen now....but in the near future, when Brady fades and BB sees into the future and understands it may be time to rebuild....it shouldn't take too long...as long as he has a few extra chips ready to roll over....
Conclusion....the trade down system prevails once again in '12. Owning flexibility is just too valuable to relinqush...despite our pleas for that extra premium player now.....We want to be given that sushi grade tuna to eat now...but BB would rather be the fisherman providing endless feasts of cod and bluefish
With a little patience...BB could set up the Patriots with Deluxe Premium Sushi Platters every year.

 

[Jimke]

As Brady gets older, trading down or for future picks should be less of a factor. Stay put and take the best defensive player available.

 

[rdf63]

Trade #27 for '12 #2 (henceforth referred to as NEW #2A) and '13 #1....expect a playoff caliber team to reach here)

Trade #31 for '12 #2 (henceforth referred to as NEW #2B) and '13 #2....Don't see another team playing the BB game of one #1 for a #1 and a #2....so BB has to work a little harder........This trade is with a team with a high #2.

Reset Pats draft order (3 Rounds)
2012.....New #2A, #48, New #2B, #63, #95
2013..Pats assigned picks rds 1-7 plus New #1, New #2

2012 Draft continued
Trade NEW #2B for '13 #1 plus a '12 #4
Trade #48 for a '13 #1
Trade NEW #2A for '13 #2 plus a '12 #3
Trade #63 for '13 #2

Reset Pats draft order
2012...New #3, #95, New #4, #127 (Approx)
2013....Pats assigned picks rds 1-7, 3 New #1s, 3 New #2s, 1 New #3, 1 New #4
Summary of total picks for 2013:
4 #1s
4 #2s
2 #3s
2 #4s
1 #5
1 #6
1 #7

2013 Draft...rinse and repeat

Point of this exercise: Sacrificing one draft under the Belichick draft system can set up a franchise for decades of endless draft bounty.
Why now: Brady's age, surplus cap space.....free agent vets come on board now capable of winning now.
The BB legacy: Imagine the goodwill BB will receive when he finally hands over the reigns (and 20 extra draft picks) to his disciples

Of course this won't happen now....but in the near future, when Brady fades and BB sees into the future and understands it may be time to rebuild....it shouldn't take too long...as long as he has a few extra chips ready to roll over....
Conclusion....the trade down system prevails once again in '12. Owning flexibility is just too valuable to relinqush...despite our pleas for that extra premium player now.....We want to be given that sushi grade tuna to eat now...but BB would rather be the fisherman providing endless feasts of cod and bluefish
With a little patience...BB could set up the Patriots with Deluxe Premium Sushi Platters every year.

I like this approach a lot because this years draft has low value safeties, centers and imagine what it would have looked like if people didn't leave early from school. There are 15-16 drafts that deserve to be in the first round and after that it is a guessing game as far as the value. I think the Pats need to focus on six particular areas cb, safety, DL, OLB, WR, center and the late first round picks can easily fall into the second round. There may be a lot of steals in the 3rd and 4th rounds specifically in de/dt, cb and wr and the Pats could be considering trading down to increase the number of picks in 2nd and 3rd really rebuild the team. I think the Pats will keep one of the 1st round picks and wouldn't be surprised to trade down on both a 1st and 2nd round pick this year to load up for next year as well.

 

[patsfan13]

They will trade down, if you want to be competitive it pays to have extra picks every year. BB believes in this and will continue to follow this philosophy.

I started a thread on this subject:

So some of us get frustrated when BB trades down and gets an extra pick here and there instead of getting out binkey. Then we look at the roster and see that not all of those stockpiled picks make the team, and that makes us crazy and think perhaps BB is crazy.

Caught this video on the NFL network on the value of draft picks is the 3rd DE statistically a lot better than the 4th or 5th... seems it may not matter. IOW there is a lot of luck involved.


Food for thought as we approach another draft and see BB trade down:

NFL Videos: Football Freakonomics: Draft Luck


and the paper they refer to in this piece:

The Loser's Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft | Berkeley.edu PDF

Quote:
In this paper we offer some evidence on both of these important concepts in an unusual but
interesting context: the National Football League, specifically its annual draft of young players. Every year the National Football League (NFL) holds a draft in which teams take turns selecting players. A team that uses an early draft pick to select a player is implicitly forecasting that this player will do well. Of special interest to an economic analysis is that teams often trade picks. For example, a team might give up the 4th pick and get the 10th pick and the 21st pick in return. In aggregate, such trades reveal the market value of draft picks. We can compare these market values to the surplus value (to the team) of the players chosen with the draft picks. We define surplus value as the player’s performance value – estimated from the labor market for NFL veterans – less his compensation. In the example just mentioned, if the market for draft picks is rational then the surplus value of the player taken with the 4th pick should equal (on average) the combined surplus value of the players taken with picks 10 and 21.

Yale School of Management


Call me crazy but I'm guessing BB and E Adams are sorta familiar with this stuff, maybe even talked to the authors...