Tavon Wilson - Lightning Rod o'Controversy (Poll)

[PatsFanStnfrd]

You got to hand it to BB. He chooses a player in the 2nd, few have heard of.

A key strategy question: why not trade down and get Wilson later. Isn't that real value? So why did the value master stand his ground. Because he really wasn't presented with attractive trade choices.

Much like when he stood his ground last year and picked Ras-I -Dowling with pick 33.

Hope both these players turnout well for the Pats in 12.

 

[patfanken]

I've said this isn't about Tayvon Wilson, but about WHEN he was drafted. For what to have happened 4 things had to be "clear"

1. The Pats had him rated as the 3rd best Safety in this draft.

2. They thought that there were other teams who also rated him higher than the "current wisdom".

3. They had a strong belief that he would be taken by someone else at before our 62nd pick.

4. There was no other pick at 48 that was rated as high as Wilson, and/or in a position of need.

After 11 seasons of extraordinary success you just have to trust that this organization knows what they are doing and they believed the above four scenarios were reality. There is no other explanation.

And if these ARE the facts then it doesn't matter what the mediots think or us, for that matter. But if they are true, then our expectations for Wilson should rise as well. Players picked in the 2nd round are expected to be starters by their 2nd or 3rd season.

For this season for this pick to be deemed a success, Wilson must be an active ST's player and a rotational player in a couple of sub packages getting at least 10-20 snaps in the regular defense per game.

 

[Dragda]

I was listening to an NFL talk show on Sirius. They were ridiculing a draft grading or player grading process where a kid that plays as clutch as Tavon Wilson did not get invited to any Senior Bowl events, the combine, or wasn't first/second team or even honorable mention.

They described him as a player that fell through the cracks, but was on the radar of many pro teams.

Personally, the Patriots are almost always right with these picks that have everyone else scratching their heads.

 

[ausbacker]

Sanders way outproduced his draft slot.

I thought Sanders as a dependable presence in the backfield. If he were a little faster, he would have been close to being a Pro Bowl quality Safety. Let's hope Wilson can take that next step in his place.

 

[Metaphors]

I've said this isn't about Tayvon Wilson, but about WHEN he was drafted. For what to have happened 4 things had to be "clear"

1. The Pats had him rated as the 3rd best Safety in this draft.

I get your point but it is stated incorrectly. More precise is that the Pats had Wilson rated higher than any other safety available at pick #48 for doing what the Pats need on this roster. For all we know, they could have rated him higher than Harrison Smith and may not have had Barron on their board at all due to fit issues.

If Chung wasn't on the roster, someone like Iloka may have been the choice instead. If they didn't sign Gregory, maybe they go for someone with a lower ceiling but more ready to play immediately. Picking Wilson had much more context than just an independent safety ranking.

2. They thought that there were other teams who also rated him higher than the "current wisdom".

If current wisdom was 6th-FA, then this is clearly true. The only evidence we know the Pats had was a number of workouts and visits...a number that seemed to correspond to a potential interest level higher than the 6th round.

3. They had a strong belief that he would be taken by someone else at before our 62nd pick.

Doesn't have to be a strong belief. It is a risk weighed against the options if you lose Wilson. If "Plan B" after Wilson was sufficiently bad (in their minds at least) then you make sure you get Wilson.

There were 2 safeties taken at #73 and #79, so teams were shopping in that area of the draft. 3 additional low-ranked, small school safeties were taken in the 4th...one of them a non-combine guy...while a number of 3rd-4th round prospects were still on the board. Is it such a stretch to think that one of them would have possibly taken Wilson late in the 2nd? Even a 10% chance?

4. There was no other pick at 48 that was rated as high as Wilson, and/or in a position of need.

Seems logical but again it ignores all context. The Pats may have had Bequette rated higher than Wilson, but based on earlier picks they were willing to risk losing Bequette rather than lose Wilson. Also, I had a 3-4 DE rated as a top 3 need for the Pats but they clearly didn't agree. They also seem very confident in the CBs, OGs and WRs currently on the roster.

After 11 seasons of extraordinary success you just have to trust that this organization knows what they are doing and they believed the above four scenarios were reality. There is no other explanation.

I have another one. The Pats wanted to exit the draft with 3 specific players and they did what was necessary to get the first two. Now at pick #48 they could complete their shopping list and declare victory with one pick to spare. Or they could screw around and potentially lose out on a guy they really wanted. At least when compared to the alternatives. Similar explanation for taking Ridley in the 3rd last year...he was the last item to check off the list and there is value is getting your draft strategy executed to completion rather than getting cute and regretting it.

And if these ARE the facts then it doesn't matter what the mediots think or us, for that matter. But if they are true, then our expectations for Wilson should rise as well. Players picked in the 2nd round are expected to be starters by their 2nd or 3rd season.

I would imagine the Pats see Wilson taking a good number of snaps beginning next year at the latest. If Chung is re-signed and Gregory turns into a phenomenal success, why does Wilson have to displace one of them as "starter" to be valuable?

For this season for this pick to be deemed a success, Wilson must be an active ST's player and a rotational player in a couple of sub packages getting at least 10-20 snaps in the regular defense per game.

Why? The goal should be to get Wilson to reach his potential as quickly as possible. The best way to do that may be through practice and physical development, with limited game snaps. If he is Ed Reed in year 2, nobody is going to care how many games he played in year 1.

The measure of success is going to be how he responds when needed...whether that be game #1 or year #2. I'm hoping Chung, Gregory and Barrett stay healthy and kick butt this year. I'm hoping Ebner is an eraser in the kicking game and claims the 4th active safety spot. If Wilson is called upon this year for whatever reason, I agree he should be able to play well enough to not be a weak link on the defense.

Next year, the expectations for Wilson goes up substantially. He should be able to play his way onto the field regardless of the depth chart ahead of him. At the end of games with an opposing QB needing to pass their team to victory, Wilson better be on the field and he better not be picked on. It would be great if he reaches that level this year...particularly when the weather is colder and the stakes are higher.

 

[Marqui]

I was listening to an NFL talk show on Sirius. They were ridiculing a draft grading or player grading process where a kid that plays as clutch as Tavon Wilson did not get invited to any Senior Bowl events, the combine, or wasn't first/second team or even honorable mention.

They described him as a player that fell through the cracks, but was on the radar of many pro teams.

Personally, the Patriots are almost always right with these picks that have everyone else scratching their heads.

What show was is it, who were the people talking?

 

[BradyManny]

Recent history certainly isn't on our side w/ this though. It seems like DB's get worse at looking for the ball once they get here.

I think he's better at S where his turning to look problem will be minimized. Pick certainly screamed positional reach and we need S help more than CB.

I don't see how it screamed positional reach. The Pats had basically addressed every need on the team to that point other than S or DL, and they didn't like what the board had to offer at DL, or other positions. If a guy like Quick was still around, maybe they go WR there, but their best player on the board at that point was Wilson.

 

[Teapot]

I would react like if he was an undrafted and thats it.

He cant be any worse than Meriweather, a first rounder .

 

[rainmaker]

I have high hopes for Wilson. BB has had good success with his "reaches" in the early rounds. Branch and Vollmer come to mind. Even Ty Warren and Matt Light were considered reaches at the time. I don't think BB drafts Wilson unless he felt he was significantly better than the next guy on his list. He weighs the risk / reward and felt even though the risk of him getting drafted before their next pick was low, his reward was too high to even take that minimal risk. Wilson will be a major contributor for many years to come.

 

[MagnumPI5]

I think it is becoming pretty clear that BB greatly values a safety with experience as a cornerback in his evolving defensive scheme. Obviously, having solid coverage skills is a must with the pass-heavy NFL. Not to mention, having a safety who can line up against anyone really opens up the possibilities for creative blitz packages and coverage schemes.
I think BB probably saw TW as the best safety available that had significant experience as a CB. If that profile is what you seek and you think that player can perform as a solid starter, you pull the trigger...especially if he is rated significantly higher than any other prospect that fits that specific profile. While it might be a reach, you have to get your guy, as no other player at that position fits nearly as well as that specific player.
Scouting is not an exact science and, of course, because of that, there is a variance in opinion on players; however, very rarely is there a significant variance in opinion on a player from organization to organization. There are a lot of checks and balances within a scouting department. It would be one thing if one scout thought TW was an impact player with a 2nd-round grade, but if the other scouts/decision makers rate him as a 6th round talent, that one scout is going to be cancelled out. Because of these checks and balances within each team, very rarely is there a significant variance in the perceived talent level of a player from organization to organization. As much as we would like to think that our team's scouting department is vastly superior to all of the other teams' scouting departments, this isn't the case. In terms of pure talent evaluation, most teams are pretty much on the same page and there is a consensus. What it gets down to is seeing how that talents fits in your system and then adjusting your level of value of that player to your team. Then you have external factors, such as injuries and character issues, and teams evaluate those risks differently. That can create a larger variance from team to team; however, as far as I can see, TW does not have any injury or character issues, so evaluating him is based significantly on talent alone. Now, with the fact that he profiles as the type of safety the Patriots value, his value could very well receive a little bump from the Patriots POV, but there are other teams that probably value that same versatility, too.
I just highly doubt that we were the only team to deem him at anything better than at least a 3rd round grade. There were several eyes within the Patriots scouting department that thought he was a 2nd round value, and you can bet they weren't the only set of eyes in the NFL that saw that, too. We aren't that vastly superior or delusional in player evaluations.

 

[State]

I have to come clean since I think this pick was a bit early.

I've actually seen Tavon Wilson in a couple of games. First off, he looks the part, and has the speed and athleticism, showing that the Patriots made the whole Scouts Inc. and Todd McShay and Mel Kiper to be a bunch a bums. The guy can definitely play.

I'll give you an example. He broke up a pass to Michigan State's Keshawn Martin, who himself was a fourth-round pick out of the Texans. Martin is a 4.4 guy--in a game against Wisconsin Michael Rosenberg, then of the Detroit Free Press, said he made the Badger secondary players look like "pylons."--who can leap nearly 40". Very fast and quick.

Wilson broke up a pass play on the flats based on his instinctive read and his athleticism. I've seen very few guys be able to do that. Even SEC guys like Georgia's Brandon Boykin.

I remember thinking at the time, this guy looks like a stud. Where does Illinois get these players? Then I remembered I wasn't supposed to think so highly of Wilson since he wasn't considered excellent. Steady, dependable, with good size and speed, yes.

But he wasn't heralded much coming out of the Big Ten.

I love how we take a guy and don't follow what we're supposed to think. We think for ourselves. Not me, but the Patriots brainthrust. I wish Wilson luck, though I mourn passing on a stud DT available at the time.

 

[Dirtywater]

It's sad, but anytime we take a DB in the draft now, regardless of the round selected, I just assume they're terrible. I'm so over us not hitting on a DB. Yes, I realize McCourty's rookie season, but sure enough even he came back down to earth after.

The names at this point ring out like a list of Bruins goalies from the 90's. Outside of Moog/Dafoe, the other 342 goalies they tried never worked out out. Pats DB's are the same. Just once I'd like for BB to actually hit on drafting a good DB, even if it's by accident!

 

[pdangle]

Thanks to some additional film posted by Ninja (thanks there too), I at least no longer feel that Tavon is a total stiff. In addition to his physical attributes, he has a decent nose for the ball, tackles well, and possesses good instincts. His coverage 1-on-1 still makes me cringe, but it's often because he seems left all alone on sieve island. Which actually confirms that the coaching staff felt he was Illinois' best defensive option.

So overall, the more I watch his play through "A future Safety conversion" colored lenses, the more I understand NE's attraction. However, I still feel no other team was even close to picking him, but who knows. If I find out the SD or another's war room collectively groaned "Damn you to hell BB!" instead of everyone else's "..wtf...who?", I still think the Pats fell prey to bad intel or even disinformation.

 

[Water Boy]

I wish Wilson luck, though I mourn passing on a stud DT available at the time.

Same here. I think the Pats reached at a position of serious need in taking Wilson w/ the 48th pick in a draft class that sucked for safeties. I can buy the premise that they liked him better than any of the DBs on the board at the time (Josh Robinson, Casey Hayward, Trumaine Johnson, Brandon Taylor, Ron Brooks et. al), but I don't buy the theory that he was the BPA on the Patriots board. In my opinion, the team would have been better off by drafting Kendall Reyes at 48.

 

[zipster9]

I would react like if he was an undrafted and thats it.

He cant be any worse than Meriweather, a first rounder .

Meriweather gave us 3 good years. Then the light went off in the 4th year.

If HarrisonSmith dropped into the 2nd round, I wouldve believed that Patriots select him, instead. But, that is my belief.