Some Of My Draft "Principles"

[mgteich]

1) Count on the draft for ONE position of need in the current year. (TE is this year's, for me)

2) Focus on the next year, and especially on those who might be lost to retirement or free agency. Consider Chung, McCourty, Thuney, Van Noy and Jones. This makes DB a major priority, even though the defensive backfield is our great strength in 2019.

3) BPA is "correct:", but BVA is better, since the best player to us is subject the need at the position. For example, I would find unlikely that we would draft an ILB or CB at 32, unless he were clearly the BPA.

4) Double-dipping with top picks is fine at positions of great need this year or next. The draft is a crapshoot, and 2 shots are better than one.

5) Prefer team captains.

6) I ignore rounds 6 and 7 (and UDFA's), which for me are for taking a shot. Obviously, Belichick is great at this and will find us a couple of roster players, but for me there is no reason to predict positions to be picked or individual players.

 

[manxman2601]

For me:

1. BPA at a position that fits on the roster. So for example, I wouldn’t take a linebacker high unless they could beat out any of Bentley, Van Noy, HT, Roberts. However...
2. One has to account for beyond next season and expiring contracts. To take the example of the linebackers, I might take a long term
Van Noy replacement so long as there’s a way to keep him on the roster.
3. I highly value athleticism, particularly explosion. I would orient my board towards the stellar athletes and only take them off my board if they looked to be uncoachable
4. I would target a limited number of prospects and move around to get them. No waiting for the draft to come to you. Obviously you need to have confidence in the scouting to do that.
5. Low ceiling, high floor prospects don’t really appeal. I’m prepared to take risks to get the higher ceiling although probably not in round one. You need those players to hit.
6. Character red flags matter.
7. Take a CB every year and probably a pass rusher and WR, even if it’s in the 6th or 7th rounds. Take a QB very other year.

 

[patchick]

1. Leaguewide scarcity matters. Give extra weight to physical traits and skillsets that are hard to come by, even if the immediate need isn't pressing.
2. Rather than "need vs. BPA," think in terms of incremental value to the roster. How big a difference will this player make? How big a step down will another player at that position 2 rounds later be?
3. Drafting for now vs. later depends on the position. E.g. you can generally plug a rookie RB in quickly, but rookie safties have taken longer to get up to speed.

 

[manxman2601]

1. Leaguewide scarcity matters. Give extra weight to physical traits and skillsets that are hard to come by, even if the immediate need isn't pressing.
2. Rather than "need vs. BPA," think in terms of incremental value to the roster. How big a difference will this player make? How big a step down will another player at that position 2 rounds later be?
3. Drafting for now vs. later depends on the position. E.g. you can generally plug a rookie RB in quickly, but rookie safties have taken longer to get up to speed.

No 1 is interesting considering our Dexter Lawrence discussion because BB is on record as saying that players of that size just don’t come along too often.

Edit: Although come to think of it, he might have said it about Pennel which probably helps your case.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The only draft strategy that should be followed by all teams is best player available.

It is why all teams build draft boards. The board should be built based on player’s ability to play in your team’s Scheme.

Follow the draft board and properly teach/coach the players and if you have a franchise qb, you can win in today’s nfl,

 

[Water Boy]

1. When in doubt trade down
2. Stockpile picks to lessen the sting of having some taken away by the commissioner
3. Draft a safety no one has ever heard of in round two

 

[patchick]

The only draft strategy that should be followed by all teams is best player available.

It is why all teams build draft boards. The board should be built based on player’s ability to play in your team’s Scheme.

Ochmed, I have a ton of respect for your football knowledge, so you seem like the idea BPA advocate to ask: what exactly do you mean by BPA?

Obviously, nobody means "literally ignore position altogether." (Taking a literal BPA approach, in this deep WR draft you could end up selecting 7 WRs, etc.) So how do you define it?

 

[mgteich]

I just added Belichick's preference for team captains.

 

[BobDigital]

The order of these matter to a degree.

#1 Do what you think is best. Flexibility is key
#2 Trade up for true elite players when you can. One elite player makes a draft successful.
#3 Trade into next year for value if possible. Don't trade picks from next year to lose value. Always add, never subtract.
#4 Be realistic about starters and your roster. Don't build to make your team have the best 23-45th players. Build to make your team have the best 1-22 players. That's how you win.
#5 Grab specialist earlier than everyone else. You'll never regret using a low 3rd to get a top kicker or STer.
#6 Trades are what win or loss the draft. Be active.
#7 Don't draft the BPA. Draft the BVA and BIA (best value and best impact).
#8 Understand your tiers. Tiers of talent is what matters. Not rounds.

 

[manxman2601]

The order of these matter to a degree.

#1 Do what you think is best. Flexibility is key
#2 Trade up for true elite players when you can. One elite player makes a draft successful.
#3 Trade into next year for value if possible. Don't trade picks from next year to lose value. Always add, never subtract.
#4 Be realistic about starters and your roster. Don't build to make your team have the best 23-45th players. Build to make your team have the best 1-22 players. That's how you win.
#5 Grab specialist earlier than everyone else. You'll never regret using a low 3rd to get a top kicker or STer.
#6 Trades are what win or loss the draft. Be active.
#7 Don't draft the BPA. Draft the BVA and BIA (best value and best impact).
#8 Understand your tiers. Tiers of talent is what matters. Not rounds.

I’m with you on tiers. That’s how I’d stack my board and I’d be active in moving around to take the best advantage of those tiers.

 

[manxman2601]

Off topic, but I’ve just realised we get 12 shots at getting three right in @patchick ’s draft game this year. This has to be the best chance for someone surely?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

FWIW, Belichick has said on more than one occasion that a successful draft is one in which "[we] improve the team." And that's basically the only criterion he has.

 

[everlong]

The word that belongs in quotes is My not Principals. Because that's the first place where we all miss the boat on who the Patriots will take every year. The second feeds into that because we don't see the interviews where Lawyer Milloy not only knows his responsibilities but every other player on the field's as well, as one example. We don't see that football mattered to Lawyer. We don't see his football smarts.

I try every year to put my own biases away and look up things like was a guy a team captain, all scholastic, is he able to do multiple jobs, did he star in special teams. Some of this information just isn't out there. So after I've watched the tape, checked out the combine numbers I take what I can learn in these area and couple this with who played for a friend of Bill's and try to make the best decision I can.

 

[patchick]

Off topic, but I’ve just realised we get 12 shots at getting three right in @patchick ’s draft game this year. This has to be the best chance for someone surely?

Oh, absolutely. This is the year, my friends. An ode shall be written!

 

[zimmy]

Key draft principles:

1. Understand your team. Where are your weaknesses/strengths? Are those short or long term? What will you need next year?
2. Understand the draft. Where is the sweet spot, where is the depth, what positions will go early.
3. Understand other teams. What do they need?
4. Set parameters for athleticism but focus on scheme fit, character, aptitude to learn, and room for development.
5. Then maximise your opportunities to get those players.

 

[everlong]

Oh, absolutely. This is the year, my friends. An ode shall be written!

Oh Patchick
Glory of three
Will it help recover
From the loss of
The mad locks of Stewart Bradley?

I'll be here all week, try the veal.

 

[patchick]

Oh Patchick
Glory of three
Will it help recover
From the loss of
The mad locks of Stewart Bradley?

I'll be here all week, try the veal.

Sing hey for brave Sir Everlong!
His rhyme was right, his meter wrong.

 

[everlong]

Sing hey for brave Sir Everlong!
His rhyme was right, his meter wrong.

My meter when it comes to poetry is empty.

 

[manxman2601]

There once was a mod named Patchick
Who annually gave everyone a pick
But struggle as we might
we fail to get it right
And the only poetry we get is this limerick.

 

[patchick]

There once was a mod named Patchick
Who annually gave everyone a pick
But struggle as we might
we fail to get it right
And the only poetry we get is this limerick.

OK, I'm starting to get nervous now--I've never written an ode before. They usually have a lot of profanity, right?