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This is possibly the most challenging off season, from a personnel standpoint, of the Belichick as GM era.
Every year seems to be one the very most challenging EVAH.
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On defense, we can extend Hightower and restructure Gilmore to cover a lot of needs. And, it not clear that Jason McCourty will stay ($5.5M potential cap savings).
On offense, we will have enough cap money to sign much of what we need.
Sanu can stay or be replaced. That $6.5M cap hit can buy almost anyone that would sign with us. Of course, if we want to keep Sanu (or an equivalent level replacement), then Sanu or the replacement would have a new lower priced contract, probably for 3 years. Obviously, we won't sign enough $10M-$15M a year players for some of our posters. And many will be grousing as to why a player wouldn't sign with us at a discount, or at what he signed for elsewhere. But that is part of every off-season.
The reality is that we all have different views, but it seems to ME that Belichick has done pretty well in his acquisition of players, and in his transition from one year to the next.
To be clear, if Brady extends at least a week before free agency, then this will be a very "normal" off-season. And, yes, we can afford to pay Brady without his 2020 cap hit being more than $20M, even if we agree to pay him $30M a year.
If Brady isn't signed, we will likely sign another QB. This player's 2020 cap hit would need to be $6.5M to give us a total of $20M with Brady's dead money. A bonus of $15M over 3 year would give us the $20M cap hit; an $18M bonus would give us a $21M cap hit (assuming a salary of $1.5M). $18.5M-$19.5M 2020 money should give Belichick a sufficient budget, should Brady leave. [Obviously, he could spend less, and spend more on others, or choose to defer less into future cap years].
Obviously, just like every year, we MUST do great in the draft, or not.
For example, I expect to see at least two OL prospects drafted, a couple likely in the 3rd or 4th rounds. Few of us will recognize their names. They will compete for spots and time with Froholdt, Cajuste, re-signs and free agents. If Cannon is gone, we might draft an OT even earlier.