MainePatsFan26
Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
- Joined
- Jan 16, 2011
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Patriots (by week):
1st quarter: 10, 14, 10, 0, 16, 3, 7, 14 = 9.25/avg
2nd quarter: 0, 10, 0, 0, 7, 7, 7, 10 = 5.13/avg
3rd quarter: 7, 7, 10, 0, 7, 15, 6, 14 = 8.25/avg
4th quarter: 6, 0, 7, 0, 3, 10, 7, 3 = 4.5/avg
Opponent (by week):
1st quarter: 0, 0, 0, 7, 7, 0, 0, 3 = 2.13/avg
2nd quarter: 7, 3, 0, 6, 0, 7, 10, 7 = 5/avg
3rd quarter: 7, 7, 0, 3, 0, 7, 3, 7 = 4.25/avg
4th quarter: 7, 14, 0, 0, 6, 3, 3, 8 = 5.13/avg
Studies have shown in quarter by quarter play since 2001 (e.g. How Many Points are Scored for Each Quarter in an NFL Game) both teams typically score more in the second and fourth quarters. This is the case with Patriots opponents, but the exact opposite with the Patriots who score their highest yield in the first and third quarters by a huge margin (unlike the 2015 team which had its highest output in the 2nd/4th). This year, we get ahead early with tape and halftime adjustments, but fade in the 2nd and 4th based upon the differential breakdown by quarter for us vs. opponents: +7.12, +0.13, +3.25, -0.63.
As this differential attests, the Patriots struggle against opponents in the 4th by a wide margin. Beyond losing the 4th by differential, Patriots opponents have the highest scoring output in the 4th compared to other quarters (5.13 vs. 2.13, 5, and 4.25) and, moreover, it is the only quarter in which Patriots opponents beat us head-to-head. We are 3-4-1 against opponents in the 4th versus 7-1, 3-3-2, and 5-1-2 in quarters one through three.
These breakdowns speak to the Patriots being ahead and playing conservative. But they also suggest that the Patriots could do more to score and prevent opponents from scoring towards the end of games. I hope Belichick emphasizes finishing stronger, as this letdown may speak to the team getting complacent. Feel free to disagree, but I thought I would share this info.
1st quarter: 10, 14, 10, 0, 16, 3, 7, 14 = 9.25/avg
2nd quarter: 0, 10, 0, 0, 7, 7, 7, 10 = 5.13/avg
3rd quarter: 7, 7, 10, 0, 7, 15, 6, 14 = 8.25/avg
4th quarter: 6, 0, 7, 0, 3, 10, 7, 3 = 4.5/avg
Opponent (by week):
1st quarter: 0, 0, 0, 7, 7, 0, 0, 3 = 2.13/avg
2nd quarter: 7, 3, 0, 6, 0, 7, 10, 7 = 5/avg
3rd quarter: 7, 7, 0, 3, 0, 7, 3, 7 = 4.25/avg
4th quarter: 7, 14, 0, 0, 6, 3, 3, 8 = 5.13/avg
Studies have shown in quarter by quarter play since 2001 (e.g. How Many Points are Scored for Each Quarter in an NFL Game) both teams typically score more in the second and fourth quarters. This is the case with Patriots opponents, but the exact opposite with the Patriots who score their highest yield in the first and third quarters by a huge margin (unlike the 2015 team which had its highest output in the 2nd/4th). This year, we get ahead early with tape and halftime adjustments, but fade in the 2nd and 4th based upon the differential breakdown by quarter for us vs. opponents: +7.12, +0.13, +3.25, -0.63.
As this differential attests, the Patriots struggle against opponents in the 4th by a wide margin. Beyond losing the 4th by differential, Patriots opponents have the highest scoring output in the 4th compared to other quarters (5.13 vs. 2.13, 5, and 4.25) and, moreover, it is the only quarter in which Patriots opponents beat us head-to-head. We are 3-4-1 against opponents in the 4th versus 7-1, 3-3-2, and 5-1-2 in quarters one through three.
These breakdowns speak to the Patriots being ahead and playing conservative. But they also suggest that the Patriots could do more to score and prevent opponents from scoring towards the end of games. I hope Belichick emphasizes finishing stronger, as this letdown may speak to the team getting complacent. Feel free to disagree, but I thought I would share this info.
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