Pats 4th in scoring O, 7th in scoring D

[Kontradiction]

Vince and Branch aren't walking through this door. You had asked me a few weeks ago how we can fix the rush problem. I suggested activating Shelton and playing more 4-3 and 3-4 would be a start. And it seems to have worked the last few weeks. Also I never suggested we have to run more 3-4/4-3 just that doing so would improve the rush defense. My real point was that the rush D is worse because we focus way more attention to the passing game evidence by the fact we have run more nickel and dime this year than 2013-2016 and any years previous too.

Except playing more 43 and 34 is not the reason the run defense sucks (all time worst in the BB era). If it were, we would have seen the run defense sucking from 2013-2016 because the nickel was our base in those years as well. Shelton alone is not fixing it, either, which was evidenced by his being a healthy scratch. It will further be evidenced when the Patriots go in a different direction (again) at the DT position in the offseason.

I came into this thread because someone had pointed out some positive things this team has going for it only to find you require more context for stats that are pretty clear and straight forward and most people need little context to understand. Then you doubled down wanting more context from someone who mentioned wins and losses. Just admit the only context you were actually looking for is one that serves your opinion that the season is over.

Newsflash - stats ALWAYS require more context. ALWAYS. The context, in statistics, is the purpose or circumstance under which an object in the data is used. In statistics, the context is every bit as important as the data itself. And no, context isn't "DURRRRRRRR DEY WINN LOL WTF." Winning is irrelevant to the context surrounding a statistic like scoring O and scoring D. What is relevant is the subsequent ranking of the offenses and defenses they faced during a particular stretch and personnel at the time. Again, this is why the PPG ranking took a hit in October and recovered in late December. Context. This is really something that you should have learned in Intro to Stats. It honestly worries me that you 1) you don't know what context to look for in this statistic, and 2) you think wins and losses are relevant at all to those stats.

By the way, the phrase that you're looking for in your last sentence is "confirmation bias." You're welcome.

 

[signbabybrady]

Except playing more 43 and 34 is not the reason the run defense sucks (all time worst in the BB era). If it were, we would have seen the run defense sucking from 2013-2016 because the nickel was our base in those years as well. Shelton alone is not fixing it, either, which was evidenced by his being a healthy scratch. It will further be evidenced when the Patriots go in a different direction (again) at the DT position in the offseason.

You really have a comprehension problem. Never once did I suggest Shelton alone would fix the problem. I did suggest Shelton plus a LBer instead of DB would make things improve. It did. never did I say completely fix.
Nickel and dime has been our base for several years now but we still never used it more than this year so it's not entirely fair to compare to 2013-2016. But now look who's throwing stats without context.

 

[Kontradiction]

You really have a comprehension problem. Never once did I suggest Shelton alone would fix the problem. I did suggest Shelton plus a LBer instead of DB would make things improve. It did. never did I say completely fix.

Good, so we're in agreement that the run defense still sucks. Look at you, recognizing that the team has a glaring issue. I'm glad you recognize that now. I also hope that you don't think moving an extra backer in, with the depth at that position and its overall lack of speed, is sustainable. Guess what happens then? TEs and RBs start torching us in the passing game again. It would be just like old times. Which brings me back to my overall point - the issue is personnel. That personnel packages.

Nickel and dime has been our base for several years now but we still never used it more than this year so it's not entirely fair to compare to 2013-2016.

Source on this?

But now look who's throwing stats without context.

Lmao, I don't think you understand what that means. I'm also beginning to highly doubt you've ever taken a Stats class at any level, ever. If you did, you should go back to them get your money back.

 

[signbabybrady]

Good, so we're in agreement that the run defense still sucks. Look at you, recognizing that the team has a glaring issue. I'm glad you recognize that now. I also hope that you don't think moving an extra backer in, with the depth at that position and its overall lack of speed, is sustainable. Guess what happens then? TEs and RBs start torching us in the passing game again. It would be just like old times. Which brings me back to my overall point - the issue is personnel. That personnel packages.

In order to fix a problem there has to first be problem. Not sure where you ever got the idea that I did not think there was a problem. You seem to insist it couldn't get better. I made a few suggestions how and as it turned out I was right.

Source on this?

I think it was Mik Reiss.

Lmao, I don't think you understand what that means. I'm also beginning to highly doubt you've ever taken a Stats class at any level, ever. If you did, you should go back to them get your money back.

You offered zero context you just basically said we ran the same D in 2013-2016 with better results. Ignoring that the talent was better back then. Shelton is not magically becoming Vince but benching Shelton didn't make Vince appear either and the run D actually performed worse without Shelton and then performance improved when he was active again.
But please go on about how your statistics class makes you so much smarter than everyone else.

 

[Adam Seward]

It’s absolutely deceptive to have only PPG stats and leave out stats indicative to how different mechanisms perform.

The biggest omission here being run defense, IMO our biggest weakness by far.

Branch gave up and I was very optimistic on what we would get out of Shelton. He unfortunately did not solve that problem.

I think we have a chance to win it all, if we get a quick start on offense and can force an opponent to air it out and take advantage of a one dimensional opponent, we can beat anybody. If we start without 7 on the first drives and the opponent can grind out clock killers, we may not get enough opportunities to score or not get the ball last when we need it.

 

[Kontradiction]

In order to fix a problem there has to first be problem. Not sure where you ever got the idea that I did not think there was a problem. You seem to insist it couldn't get better. I made a few suggestions how and as it turned out I was right.

Maybe marginally better but still not enough to get the job done. In other words, the run defense was already competing for worst in the BB era with Shelton in through the beginning to the middle of the season. Without him, they definitely took the cake. With him, they’re competing with 2002. That’s not good enough. So, like I’ve said from the beginning, the problem is personnel and not personnel grouping. Shelton is still a part of that. But yes, like I was saying, I’m very happy you’re starting to see the light.

I think it was Mik Reiss.

Link, please. I don’t recall that (and I read his articles). Further, the snap counts do not support such an assertion. I’ll need to see a link or a Tweet.

You offered zero context you just basically said we ran the same D in 2013-2016 with better results. Ignoring that the talent was better back then.

Dude, you are trying way too hard here. I refuse to believe that you could be this stupid and I want to believe this is a product of reaching to, again, desperately try to score a point. I made it a point to reference those defenses as being better against the run and I followed that up IMMEDIATELY by mentioning personnel. That is the definition of citing a statistic and adding context. Just simply saying “#4 scoring O and #7 scoring D” is not. Hence my OP in this thread that you probably shouldn’t have made it a point to respond to.

Shelton is not magically becoming Vince but benching Shelton didn't make Vince appear either and the run D actually performed worse without Shelton and then performance improved when he was active again.

His presence has only marginally made it better throughout the year. You’ll forgive me if my concerns are not calmed about a performance, at home, against a team that clearly quit on the field whose coach was getting fired immediately after the game.

But please go on about how your statistics class makes you so much smarter than everyone else.

I actually took quite a few of them as a business major. This discussion, for anyone that is still following it, makes that clear. I laid out the example to mosslost by dumbing down multiple regression so he could understand it and you don’t even know what context is. I don’t think there’s any question that I’m better equipped for this convo than you are. At this point, I’m basically just responding to see how long it will take before you realize it and you quit.

 

[signbabybrady]

Maybe marginally better but still not enough to get the job done. In other words, the run defense was already competing for worst in the BB era with Shelton in through the beginning to the middle of the season. Without him, they definitely took the cake. With him, they’re competing with 2002. That’s not good enough. So, like I’ve said from the beginning, the problem is personnel and not personnel grouping. Shelton is still a part of that. But yes, like I was saying, I’m very happy you’re starting to see the light.



Link, please. I don’t recall that (and I read his articles). Further, the snap counts do not support such an assertion. I’ll need to see a link or a Tweet.



Dude, you are trying way too hard here. I refuse to believe that you could be this stupid and I want to believe this is a product of reaching to, again, desperately try to score a point. I made it a point to reference those defenses as being better against the run and I followed that up IMMEDIATELY by mentioning personnel. That is the definition of citing a statistic and adding context. Just simply saying “#4 scoring O and #7 scoring D” is not. Hence my OP in this thread that you probably shouldn’t have made it a point to respond to.



His presence has only marginally made it better throughout the year. You’ll forgive me if my concerns are not calmed about a performance, at home, against a team that clearly quit on the field whose coach was getting fired immediately after the game.



I actually took quite a few of them as a business major. This discussion, for anyone that is still following it, makes that clear. I laid out the example to mosslost by dumbing down multiple regression so he could understand it and you don’t even know what context is. I don’t think there’s any question that I’m better equipped for this convo than you are. At this point, I’m basically just responding to see how long it will take before you realize it and you quit.

Let me ask you this since you are such a brilliant statistician please enlighten us as to how these two statistics are not a good indicator of teams that win in the NFL?

 

[EddardSnow67]

I think the reality is that the Patriots are a solid team with a little less margin for error than they've had in the past and are generally more capable of laying a huge egg than in the past. With that said, I think they're good enough to win the AFC. Do that and anything can happen in one game.

 

[goheels22002]

I have always felt that Edelman was > Gronk even when Gronk was Gronk. That was my personal opinion no denying that Today.

Different roles. Edelman will never be the in-line blocker Gronk is, and his highlights are a bit different than the highlights below.

 

[goheels22002]

I think the reality is that the Patriots are a solid team with a little less margin for error than they've had in the past and are generally more capable of laying a huge egg than in the past. With that said, I think they're good enough to win the AFC. Do that and anything can happen in one game.

The Patriots are better than solid. They are 4-0 against playoff teams in 2018 and undefeated at home. They are 4th in scoring offense, 6th in scoring defense.

The Patriots are 5th in turnover margin per game and average takeaways per game (highest among AFC teams still in the playoffs.) New England is 2nd in penalty yards per game and 1st among all playoff teams - they make fewer mistakes.

The Patriots will be prepared for whomever they face. They haven't laid an egg since the 2010 Ravens blowout. Belichick knows how to keep his team focused on the task at hand.

The Patriots are about as healthy as any playoff team I can recall. McCourty's concussion is a concern. Brady looked fine moving in the pocket and stepping into throws against the Jets - better than the previous four weeks.

They understand how to prepare for a playoff game and have always shed players who are distractions. External distractions have always been channeled into preparedness. I trust the noise about Gronk will be used to good affect next week.

I don't care who they play next week. The best team is the Chargers which is balanced with a veteran QB. They will get beaten physically in Baltimore and need to avoid injury. If the Chargers win, they stay on the road. I like that it's cold outside and we'll see snow this week.

The Ravens are imbalanced and don't have a passing game. Screw them. The Ravens have one win - uno - against a playoff team this year (LA Chargers).

The Patriots defense can handle them and their rookie QB. They'll be ready for a rock fight just like last year when they beat the Jagoffs in the AFCC. I suspect that Belichick and McDaniels will turn to the offensive line to open holes against the Ravens front seven for a talented and diverse rushing attack.

 

[RayClay]

Although I agree that our run defense [especially without Shelton] was scary at times, we need some perspective. We aren't going against the 1960 Green Bay Packers. It's a passing game now. Whether through better play or coaching/team work, all we need to do is prevent teams from running up the gut or getting first downs on runs at will. Maybe just one 3 and out.Do that and Brady puts up points, no run defense disaster.

Once it goes to passing we have a big advantage, again if we can just be solid at LB and bringing consistent pressure.