OT: Jags vs Steelers 2 point conversion.

[mesoslo]

When the steeler got that holding penalty and had to convert for two points from the 12 yard line do you think the pigburgh sqealers were trying to be like tom brady and the patriots?

only BB and the patriots have the balls and talent to be able to pull a move like that.

Then Ben roth tries to run it in??? from the 12??? after you took a penalty??

not only that the play that broke the pigsburgh sqealers backs was the garrard scramble late in the 4th!!

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

Re: OT:Jags vs Steelers 2 point conversion.

I was actually pretty critical of them going for 2 points even before the penalty. It seemed to me that the reward of being down by 4 was greater than the risk of being down by 5.

But there are some pretty sophisticated statistical anlyses out there to suggest it actually was the right play to go for 2. Even after the penalty. Seems counterintuitive to me, but I can't deny the math in some of these things. (Great posts on it in sons of sam horn, if anyone goes there.)

I guess part of the equation is that making a 29 yard field goal in weather is materially different from making a 19 yarder, so you have to factor that in too.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Re: OT:Jags vs Steelers 2 point conversion.

It was a bad move even before the play. Take the point, be down by 4. I understand wanting to be down by 3 but it was too early. Once they were on the 12 it was stupid. Listen to Belichick's most recent interview on the WEEI Audio Vault - they asked him about it and he wanted to say "what a f*cking idiot" about going from the 12. He cleaned it up to something like "that's a tough play to expect to succeed or something like that" but you could tell what he really thought.

 

[mrrhodeisland]

Re: OT:Jags vs Steelers 2 point conversion.

Had they kicked the extra point the final score would have been Jags 31 - Steelers 30. Had they made the 2 point conversion, 31-31 at the end of the 4th quarter and then OT. It ended up being the right call IMO.

 

[duvalbill]

Re: OT:Jags vs Steelers 2 point conversion.

Had they kicked the extra point the final score would have been Jags 31 - Steelers 30. Had they made the 2 point conversion, 31-31 at the end of the 4th quarter and then OT. It ended up being the right call IMO.

Not true. They went for 2 twice, if they kick the extra point the first time, a 2 pt conversion is unnecessary the second time. IMO it was an impatient call, but I enjoyed it.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Re: OT:Jags vs Steelers 2 point conversion.

Had they kicked the extra point the final score would have been Jags 31 - Steelers 30. Had they made the 2 point conversion, 31-31 at the end of the 4th quarter and then OT. It ended up being the right call IMO.

You must not have truly been paying attention as two 1-point conversions (as opposed to two missed 2-point conversions) added to 29 = 31.

 

[godef]

Re: OT:Jags vs Steelers 2 point conversion.

I was actually pretty critical of them going for 2 points even before the penalty. It seemed to me that the reward of being down by 4 was greater than the risk of being down by 5.

But there are some pretty sophisticated statistical anlyses out there to suggest it actually was the right play to go for 2. Even after the penalty. Seems counterintuitive to me, but I can't deny the math in some of these things. (Great posts on it in sons of sam horn, if anyone goes there.)

I guess part of the equation is that making a 29 yard field goal in weather is materially different from making a 19 yarder, so you have to factor that in too.

a) What's the difference in being down by 5 vs 4? You still need a touchdown. And once you go for 2, you can't predict what will happen after that. In 04, Miami went for 2 twice and failed on both, but they beat us anyhow.

b) Give the Jags some credit for stopping them. This comment might make more sense if you consider Super Bowl XXXVIII; had the Panthers gone for 1 point after all TDs, the game would have gone into OT, presuming the Pats would have gone for 1 on their final touchdown; but you have to consider that the Pats were successful in their one attempt, whereas the Panthers failed in two attempts, and this only helped clarify which was the better team.

The pont-after is almost so automatic, I think they ought to eliminate the kick, and make them execute the current 2-PAT conversion to get 1 point, and perhaps set the ball back to the 5 yard line if they want to go for 2.

 

[mrrhodeisland]

Re: OT:Jags vs Steelers 2 point conversion.

You must not have truly been paying attention as two 1-point conversions (as opposed to two missed 2-point conversions) added to 29 = 31.

and 2 successful 2-point conversions would have won them the game.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Re: OT:Jags vs Steelers 2 point conversion.

and 2 successful 2-point conversions would have won them the game.

The odds of two successful 2 pointers is less than 25% (a little below 50% each). Add in going for one from the 12 and you have to be looking at 10%.

Nice odds.

 

[xmarkd400x]

Re: OT:Jags vs Steelers 2 point conversion.

I think there is a logical line of reasoning for going for two. Suppose you just scored and are down by 5. If you kick the one, you are down by 4 and still need a touchdown to win. If you go for two and miss, you are down by 5 and still need a touchdown to win. If you go for two and make it, you need a field goal to tie.

With those facts, you can say "Going for the 1 pointer is as bad as missing the two" in terms of where it puts your team after the attempt. With 10 minutes left in the game I think it is safe.

Assuming your defense lets up no more points (hey, they DID have the top scoring defense in the NFL this year) going for 2 is the smarter decision because it has a chance to put your offense closer, while not much of a chance to put your offense farther away.

The pitfall was assuming the defense wasn't going to allow any more points.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Re: OT:Jags vs Steelers 2 point conversion.

I think there is a logical line of reasoning for going for two. Suppose you just scored and are down by 5. If you kick the one, you are down by 4 and still need a touchdown to win. If you go for two and miss, you are down by 5 and still need a touchdown to win. If you go for two and make it, you need a field goal to tie.

With those facts, you can say "Going for the 1 pointer is as bad as missing the two" in terms of where it puts your team after the attempt. With 10 minutes left in the game I think it is safe.

Assuming your defense lets up no more points (hey, they DID have the top scoring defense in the NFL this year) going for 2 is the smarter decision because it has a chance to put your offense closer, while not much of a chance to put your offense farther away.

The pitfall was assuming the defense wasn't going to allow any more points.

First the assumption of no more points is a poor assumption. However there is at least a viable consideration of going for two initially - although I wouldn't. However going from the 12 was absolutely nuts and irresponsible.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

Re: OT:Jags vs Steelers 2 point conversion.

a) What's the difference in being down by 5 vs 4? You still need a touchdown. And once you go for 2, you can't predict what will happen after that. In 04, Miami went for 2 twice and failed on both, but they beat us anyhow.

Yes, you need the TD either way, obviously. You always do any time you're down by more than 3, so that's a given.

The difference is that going for the 2 puts you in position where you can get the TD and still lose to a field goal. Kicking the extra point means you can't lose to a field goal if you get your touchdown. You get overtime at home.

I know I'm just stating the obvious and that hindsight is 20/20, but being behind by 4 in the fourt quarter is significantly more manageable than being behind by 5. Being down by 3, of course, is better. Although being down by only 3 puts several losing scenarios back into play that aren't there if you're down by 4, so it's closer than you think.

 

[godef]

Re: OT:Jags vs Steelers 2 point conversion.

Yes, you need the TD either way, obviously. You always do any time you're down by more than 3, so that's a given.

The difference is that going for the 2 puts you in position where you can get the TD and still lose to a field goal. Kicking the extra point means you can't lose to a field goal if you get your touchdown. You get overtime at home.

I know I'm just stating the obvious and that hindsight is 20/20, but being behind by 4 in the fourt quarter is significantly more manageable than being behind by 5. Being down by 3, of course, is better. Although being down by only 3 puts several losing scenarios back into play that aren't there if you're down by 4, so it's closer than you think.

Yes, 4 vs 5 is more significant if you're still only in the 3rd quarter and each team has 2 or 3 TDs. OTOH, it doesn't mean squat if there's only 2 minutes left and the score is 13-9 or 14-9. So where is that boundary where you decide you need to go for 2 instead of 1? Beginning of the 4th quarter? halfway through the 4th? In SB38, outside of a chance play in the 2nd quarter, Carolina had trouble moving the ball on the Pats. When they finally scored a 2nd TD in the 4th quarter to make the score 21-16, how many chances could they figure to have to score again? Perhaps 1 the way the game had played out. But then, who knew it would turn into such a shoot out at the end? That couldn't have been predicted. I had always thought Carolina did the right thing going for 2 at that point. OTOH, if the score was 41-36, then I would have thought "Go for 1, 'cuz you're going to score once or twice more anyhow."

 

[cclocke]

Re: OT:Jags vs Steelers 2 point conversion.

I believe there was a little over 10 minutes left when Pittsburgh scored and went for two. Being down 5 at the time, I believe going for 2 was the right move at first. However, once the penalty occurred, I was stunned they still went for two. It's not like they needed to kick an onside kick to have a chance in the game, there was plenty of time. Obviously, the failure to convert the conversion resulted in a sure bet to go to overtime.