Many, many reasons for optimism

[MrBigglesWorth]

...it is more a post of "reality" that our offense is the key to the rest of the season if we are to be successful, and success does not mean just winning the division and playing one playoff game.....

You hit the nail right on the head.

They haven't been able to get the lead early on many occassions.

They haven't been able to have that last drive at the end of the game to tie it up or take the lead(ie. Jets, Colts)

They are not consistent.

They = Offense.

 

[mgteich]

NEM,

We told you you'd miss Charlie!

Not just first drives, but the first quarter and the entire first half of most games....

And as we enter the third quarter, it is very weak, and we are very low in output offensively in the third quarter, as in the first, and this is what kills us and makes far too many games closer than they should be.

Over the first eight games, we were 6-2 and our defense was a major part of those wins....bailing out the offense time after time.

Now the defense is hurting, and the offense has yet to pick up the slack, instead it has grown weaker, and we are but 3-2 in the past five.

This is not a "chiucken little " post of a "manic deprsssive" post , as Aj likes to call many who are concenred...it is more a post of "reality" that our offense is the key to the rest of the season if we are to be successful, and success does not mean just winning the division and playing one playoff game....

This team is suffereing from an offensive coordinator, or whoeve the hell is calling the plays if it's not McDaniels, and lvery non agressive and very weak first and third quarters....

And, the biggest problem, IMO, is that the third quarter, all season long, has shown very little change, or adjustment, from the crap we saw in the first halves of most games.

Only until the fourth quarter, desperation time, have we seen any majaor changes in the offensive schemes.... and we have been lucky because the defense, for the most part, was there to help....but now, the offense is not giving them any payback. Last week, in the first half, our defense handed the ball to our offense FIVE times in the first half alone, and the offense DID NOTHING to thank them, and the play calling was absymal.

Hopefully, many of us thought that, seeing as we were only down 6-0 that we would come out in the third quarter with a new offensive face, new plays, new schemes, etc, and we would take control of the game...NOPE, NADA, NOTHING NEW..same old crap play calling and before we knew it, 13-0, kitty bar the door, school was out, sayhonara, see ya.

Finally, in the 4th, Josh, or whoever makes the decisions, went to the no huddle. Nothing like being a dime short and a day late, is there?

And, its been like that for most of the season and we have been fortunate in many games....

But, this must stop, and it must stop NOW, IMMEDIATELY...if we dont blow out this Texans team, and have control of this game before the half time break, then we have some real problems because even with all of the injuries we have, based on the records and the stats of the season , like the ones that are thrown about in this thread, in the very first post, there is no excuse for not going into the locker rooms , at halftime, with a minimum of a three touchdown lead. No excuse at all.

And if we can do that, as we should, we will have restored confidence in ourselves, and I believe, go on to finish in the way we are accustomed to.

Agressive play calling from the get go, take control early, hold onto the ball... and the defense will do the rest, because now we will have THEM tryuing to play catch up, and that's exactly how it should be...and can be, if the offensive play calling makes all the changes that are required...NOW.

 

[mgteich]

There are indeed many reason for optimism. The defense will be the best we've had entering the playoffs, if Wilfork and Harrison are back. Our rushing game will be fine when Maroney is back (presuming that Josh call any running plays). We have three solid running backs, and a reasonable fullback. We even have a couple of solid TE and an OL. We have one of the best QB's in football.

We have only two weaknesses: WR and OC. Could this be overcome by all the positives. Of course!

Hidden in all the doomsaying in these parts are many reasons to be optimistic about the Pats chances over the next 8 weeks.
You would never know it from the topics being discussed, but the Patriots have allowed the fewest defensive TDs in the NFL, allowing only 16 TDs in 13 games.
Compared to the 03 and 04 Champions, they are at a pace of ending the season allowing fewer TDs than both the 03 and 04 defenses.
We are allowing the fewest points per game of any BB Pat team.
We are allowing fewer rushing yards than either 03 or 04.
We are on a pace where we will allow 49 more total yards than the 03 D and 250 less than the 04 D.
Point blank, statistically, we have the best D of the BB era.

Offensively, we already have run for more yard than we did last year. We are gaining 20 yards per game rushing more than we did in 03, and 12 less than the dominant running game of 2004.
We are averaging more yards of total offense than we had in 2003, and only 22 a game less than 2004. We are scoring more points per game than we did in 2003, but about 5 a game less than 04.

Basically, if you told me before the season started that BBs defense would play better than it ever had, Tom Brady is healthy, and our running game is close to the 2004 running game, and we are headed for the playoffs, I would have said we are on our way to the 4th ring.

Somehow, all of those things have happened, but the general opinion being expressed by Pats fans is that we arent very good. (There is even one thread out there asking if BB has lost it).

The bottom line is that the things you need to do to win in the playoffs are the things we are doing well, with the exception of committing too many turnovers.

There is just no way you can be down on the chances of a team that is allowing 1.23 TDs and 14.3 points per game, and has Tom Brady at QB when the playoffs begin.

 

[DCPatriot]

I too remain optimistic even as I watch listless performances against teams we would have trounced in December 03, 04 and even 05. But, other than to recall how great the Patriots have been and in so doing keep our support strong for this edition, I see no reason to compare them to the 03 and 04 teams, which were of a different caliber through this point in the season. We can be honest about this and still believe that great things remain possible this year. Even with their lackluster effort of late and their many injuries, this is the one NFL team that can draw on a trust fund of late-season greatness and find the requisite self-confidence for the next ring. But...they need to find their December iron. I think they will, starting today.

 

[captain stone]

Re: Not so fast....

The defense had trouble on third downs but they have been solid against the run and great in the red zone. Before Seau got hurt. That weakened four crucial LB positions as they moved Vrabel inside, moved Bruschi over, moved Colvin to the strong side and put TBC on the weak side. The last two weeks, they allowed 21 points each too the Lions and Dolphins and the pass rush hasn't gotten a whif of a QB. Hobbs was benched because he hasn't been able to cover anyone but Scott has had his trouble also (say "Marty Booker"). They signed a CB off hte street whos tarts as a nickel back and was beat badly last weak but saved from a TD by a Hawkins TD-saving illegal contact penalty. Wilfork is out, leaving the middle very soft. Maybe they can pull a defense together, but the current defense is a far cry from the one that beat the Bears. :bricks:

Bingo.

The defense, like the offense and the punting, is trending downward. The players who are replacing the injured starters are precipitously inferior. For example:

The "talent" at LB after Vrabel, Colvin and Bruschi is shockingly awful, worse even than at WR.

An old midget, signed off the street, is now the dime DB, cobwebs and all.

There is no experienced backup NT; Michael Wright is an End, and a fairly decent one - but not a NT, m'kay?

Perhaps Rodney's return will light the fire; after all, his knee has had an extra month + to recuperate. But Junior, unfortunately, will not return, at least not this year. Sorry to rain on the optimistic premise of the thread, and I do hope that I am proven wrong, in the end.

 

[DarrylS]

I am on the optimistic side, and look to today for somewhat of a breakout game with better execution, fewer penalties and minimal turnovers. While this teams is lacking in some areas the sum is greater than the equal of its parts, due to the great equalizer, coaching.

As a team we have always tended to play to the competition, look at our effort against Chicago and compare it to Detroit... on and on. No need to beating this dead horse again.

We have been figured out by other teams, studying game films of teams success against us have shown our weaknesses, I suspect the BB went back to the film room with his staff to look at what is wrong. I also suspect that we will see more success this week, and the changes to us as fans will not be as obvious.

Never could understand all the whining this year, there have been some issues, but many of us go back to the 1-15 seasons, so every time there is a winning season it is simply great. Not sure how far we go, but do know that many of the teams at the top have been exposed as frauds and we have shown the NFL how to beat some of them. I suspect while great talent is necessary, showing how to use it(BB & crew) and having great leaders on the field; Brady, Seymour, Bruschi and Harrison are the equalizer. I don't always like the way we played, but never loose confidence in the abilities of this squad.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Hidden in all the doomsaying in these parts are many reasons to be optimistic about the Pats chances over the next 8 weeks.
You would never know it from the topics being discussed, but the Patriots have allowed the fewest defensive TDs in the NFL, allowing only 16 TDs in 13 games.
Compared to the 03 and 04 Champions, they are at a pace of ending the season allowing fewer TDs than both the 03 and 04 defenses.
We are allowing the fewest points per game of any BB Pat team.
We are allowing fewer rushing yards than either 03 or 04.
We are on a pace where we will allow 49 more total yards than the 03 D and 250 less than the 04 D.
Point blank, statistically, we have the best D of the BB era.

Offensively, we already have run for more yard than we did last year. We are gaining 20 yards per game rushing more than we did in 03, and 12 less than the dominant running game of 2004.
We are averaging more yards of total offense than we had in 2003, and only 22 a game less than 2004. We are scoring more points per game than we did in 2003, but about 5 a game less than 04.

Basically, if you told me before the season started that BBs defense would play better than it ever had, Tom Brady is healthy, and our running game is close to the 2004 running game, and we are headed for the playoffs, I would have said we are on our way to the 4th ring.

Somehow, all of those things have happened, but the general opinion being expressed by Pats fans is that we arent very good. (There is even one thread out there asking if BB has lost it).

The bottom line is that the things you need to do to win in the playoffs are the things we are doing well, with the exception of committing too many turnovers.

There is just no way you can be down on the chances of a team that is allowing 1.23 TDs and 14.3 points per game, and has Tom Brady at QB when the playoffs begin.

Everything is well said EXCEPT about the part of the 2006 Patriots having NO receivers worthy of keeping the defense honest - If 1 RECEIVER emerges IMMEDIATELY we have a shot..We just need 1 guy to separate from the D-Backs more than just once in a blue moon...That will be the life or death of this team this year..We cannot win without a receiver stepping up BIG and I don't know if we have one that truly can?..Thats the bottom line - When was the last time Tommy threw a 30-50 yard bomb that was caught by one of our WRs?..I can't remember anytime recently in the past 5 games,can anyone?

 

[SpiritOf76]

Really.

As the Titanic was starting to take on water, did the passengers remain completely optimistic, saying, "The Titanic has been a good ship over the year, as a whole, so I'm optimistic that good things are coming, even though it's recently taking on water".

OK, I overstate it, to simply enhance the opposite point of view. The Pats are not a ship going down, but their performance and injury situation has been going in the wrong direction, recently.

Most of the stats you cite are related to the full year performance, and does that really apply now, when the injuries and poor performances are so close in the rear-view mirror?

That said, seeing how the Pats won in 2001, anything is possible, and I would _never_ write the team off, _ever_.

But there are not many, many reasons to be optimistic, based on recent injuries and recent performance.

Sorry to put a cold shower on the cheering up; it was a noble attempt. Prefer heavy drinking and denial to pixy dust optimism.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Okay to all and sundry who miss the spelling around here it's receiving CORPS, it just sounds like "Core."

Andy thanks for the stats, and chicken little, thanks for letting us all know that the problem is, those stats were produced before RIGHT NOW, and therefore the injuries we've suffered since [most recent injury here] make any season-long stats invalid.

In past years, I have never seen a team more able to make that point a non-argument than the NE Patriots.

Therefore: gut check (and bench-check) time. Coaches have to scheme around it. Players have to step up. Etc. etc. etc. And meanwhile, those other 31 teams aren't just dropping by for the beer -- they want to do exactly what we want to, win at all costs.

Yeah maybe we just start winning squeekers against bad teams, and losing stinkers to good teams, and get booted out of the playoffs on our butts.

But situations with this many injuries, as I recall, are exactly when stars get to be born in Foxboro.

Maybe not this year.

But still, maybe so.

PFnV

 

[JR4]

It is amazing that when people have a hard time accepting
some light on a truth that they do NOT like they resort to name
calling rather that offer solid evidence that counters the truth
they do not like.
For all you name callers --- once again the stats towards the end
of the season show a PATs team in decline and the recent injuries do
help that situation at all. Something needs to change soon.
Debate That rather than name calling. The only chicken littles here are
those who run away from a challenge.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Reasons for optimism:

Kelvin Kight and Jabar Gaffney...

Need I say more?

 

[SpiritOf76]

I don't mind the chicken little comment.

Using the Titanic example was a bit of goading, just to illustrate the usual Belichick perspecitive, that the long-term past doesn't matter all that much, and is certainly no indicator of future performance. Even the nearer-past is not that great, though, and I accept that.

Let's just hope they had a good week of practice and the coaches bring their A game, too.

Maybe they'll crush the Titans, and we'll be declaring the mini-slump over. We've seen them rise from the dead so many times, it would not surprise.

I just hope this game is not like watching paint dry.

 

[pats1]

Everything is well said EXCEPT about the part of the 2006 Patriots having NO receivers worthy of keeping the defense honest - If 1 RECEIVER emerges IMMEDIATELY we have a shot..We just need 1 guy to separate from the D-Backs more than just once in a blue moon...That will be the life or death of this team this year..We cannot win without a receiver stepping up BIG and I don't know if we have one that truly can?..Thats the bottom line - When was the last time Tommy threw a 30-50 yard bomb that was caught by one of our WRs?..I can't remember anytime recently in the past 5 games,can anyone?

Who on the 2001-5 Patriots, outside of Branch from time to time, was "worthy of keeping the defense honest?"

Kevin Kasper? J.J. Stokes? Bethel Johnson? Jimmy Farris?

How many times did the Pats go "for the 30-50 deep bomb" in 2001-4? The few I remember are Brown in MIA and Bethel vs. SEA.

 

[JR4]

I still believe that this team will make it to the SB in Miami. Dont ask me why, its just a gut feeling.

But we do have some problems and they need to be corrected NOW... It is time for the offense to step up ...as we may not get the help from the defense that we got earlier in the season.

The offensive schemes have to be of the kind that are very agressive, fromthe get go so that we can take control of the flow of the games and dictate to opposing defenses rather than the opposite, which has become the case in recent weeks.

Too many times we are in fourth quartr situations inwhich one bad play, one mistake, can cost the game...

We have the talent on offense, contrary to what some people try to say whenthey criticize the wr's, etc....

They just need to be used in a more agressive manner, INCLUDING THE USE OF NO HUDDLE OFFENSE, PLAY ACTION and a change in the routes, which obviusly are not working.

This team CAN go all the way, but if these changes are not made, it will not be easy.

We should be able to see TODAY, if the message has gotten through to the brain trust..that what they have been doing, particularly on offense, is not working....

I was about to agree with you about the talent in the receiving core but
on second thoughts ... they are average at best. Unless Jackson steps up
this wr core isn't scaring any playoff team and Tom will continue to have to
thread the eye of a needle.
I keep remembering the poster here who was at the Miami game, a team
with no great secondary and his comments the the WR got no separation
all day and were getting knocked down at the line.
I still have the visions of an Oline that was being pushed around all day.

The only hope I have is int what Brady said ... "If players will listen to what
the coach says" seems to indicate players are NOT doing what they are
coached to do.
If so then that is correctable and somethings could change.
I am hopeful but somethings have to change ... and fast.

I do agree it is the offense that needs to improve primarily. but it wouldn't
hurt if the the D could get a few more turnovers. Also has the run D has
really suffered because of the three changes to the starting LBs?
Three ? yes three ... Vrabel to ILB, Colvin to LOLB and Banta to ROLB
That is a lot of changing and the results are not immediately known.
I fear Tully will not be all that is hoped for.

 

[AzPatsFan]

The secondary is actually not completely "rebuilt". There's an argument to be made Hobbs is not a true starter, Samuel may very well be gone next year, and Rodney is in the twilight of his career at 34. Incidentally, Hawkins turned 30 in Nov and Gay has landed on IR two straight years. This is an area where we have some significant long term needs that will have to be filled soon.

When you say its not completely rebuilt you are correct. There are ONLY six younger players with substantial starting time, and I purposely didn't include Harrison. But Hobbs ahs been playing one handed this year (and for that matter so has Bruschi).

They will draft other secondary players but the heavy lifting is done, I would think. Maturity and experience will solve many of those remaining problems, so substantially rebuilt might be a better term. Even now the reserves beyond the six are NOT No-name scrubs and never-were-nor-will-bes, but former starter vets in the twilight oif their careers, before they get to the Spanns and Ventrones, no-name scrubs of the world. Those kind of scrubs is what most clubs actually consider as reserves. Scott, Harrison, Tebuckey and Mickens would probably be an average to above average starting secondary even now for many clubs. The Pats secondary still ranks third in the league in the number of turnovers created, even with a one handed CB and LB. Our own excessive fumbles from the offense obscures this great record as "'playmakers".

The Pats have another "double draft" coming up about their fourth or fifth in a row. Outside of a punter and WR, there is no room or necessity to draft on Offense. Put a draft's worth of players into that already very good Defense and watch out, is all I'm saying.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I don't know if I was the subject of the "namecaller" response, but if so, on reading my earlier post, I deserve it. So, I apologize for saying "to chicken little," in my last post.

The reminder that the stats applicable to a healthy team, are not applicable to a less healthy team (to the same extent,) is definitely worth remembering.

My point that the Pats historically find a way to win, may or may not ultimately prove to have an effect this season.

The ultimate answer will be found on the field, not on a bulletin board -- but there's no harm in looking at all aspects of the question, and there's no gain in singling someone out to represent a mindset, especially when that individual is merely stating facts as he knows them.

PFnV

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I don't know if I was the subject of the "namecaller" response, but if so, on reading my earlier post, I deserve it. So, I apologize for saying "to chicken little," in my last post.

The reminder that the stats applicable to a healthy team, are not applicable to a less healthy team (to the same extent,) is definitely worth remembering.

My point that the Pats historically find a way to win, may or may not ultimately prove to have an effect this season.

The ultimate answer will be found on the field, not on a bulletin board -- but there's no harm in looking at all aspects of the question, and there's no gain in singling someone out to represent a mindset, especially when that individual is merely stating facts as he knows them.

PFnV

Folks offended by any reference to chicken little are too worried about how "they" are perceived, especially when no one was named in a general characterization.

Your optimism seems to be well founded, at least as the second quarter of the Texans' collapse is showing with Wright holding up well in the middle, Faulk running crazy in rotation with Dillon, Sanders playing well, Hobbs recently made a nice stop on the Texans' #1 WR. TBC has never been in doubt, as some continue to post, but then I try and watch tape going back to pre-season and not just rate a player based on his standing on the depth chart. Oddly enough TBC helped Seymour plug the left side of the Houston line on the first play from scrimmage - I haven't been to the game thread, but I'm betting he didn't get a lot of love for that play.

The defense needs to continue to adjust as new people rotate in, but they were competitive even during the most recent meltdown in Miami. Frankly, this defense is playing well and isn't a major point of concern heading into the playoffs. Special Teams are playing very well despite the many changes in personnel they have rotated through - that includes Walter in spite of the hangover from his previous tenure. Which puts the burden right back on an offense which is not executing well. Whines about the Offensive Coordinator fail to focus on the players themselves, starting with Tommy and some of his blocking/blitz pick-up calls (Miami's alleged theft nothwithstanding). Gaffney's drop, Brown's drop, Kight's drop, possibly some blocking breakdowns (I'll need to go to tape for that) the first half against Houston has highlighted what we want to see get better for the team as they head into the playoffs.

It's not too late - that comes when they lose in the post-season - I echo AJ & PFinVA's optimism.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm beginning to see the light.
Anything good that happens with the Pats can be explained away, and is never a good sign, because there is a reason why the future will be worse, for example being the best defense in the NFL isnt relevant because we are the only team whose stats are skewed by early season and late, are the only team that has injuries, and have to be gettign worse. (More on that later)

Anything bad, even a play or 2 during a win that doesnt go our way is a harbinger of doom. When we get to the playoffs everything good we have done wont matter because we only do good things against teams that are incapable, and everythign bad we did only get worse. When you really look at it, we go in pretty much as a team that would be 0-16 against teams that had a chance at making the playoffs.

I love how the response to our successes is that it doesnt apply anymore because we have gotten worse.

Here is an interesting note: In the last FIVE games, we have allowed a total of 5 defensive TDs and 62 points, or 12.4 a game.
WAIT THAT MEANS THE D IS PLAYING BETTER LATELY. SOMETHING MUST BE WRONG. I am sure someone will figure out why this is a bad thing and clue me in.

Offensively, we have scored the following ppg broken down in 4 game increments:

1st 4 22
2nd 4 24.75
3rd 4 23.5
Last 2 20.0

So unless you think that we are only as good as the shutout in Miami, I see a pretty consistent overall offense, which, by the way, is 9th in the NFL in scoring.
Understand this means 8 of 31 offenses have done better, and 23 of 31 worse.
Surely there is no way that an offense that is only 8th best could ever win a SB teamed with the defense that allow the fewest TDs in the league, is there.

 

[Clonamery]

NEM wrote: "We appear to have average wr's because they are being give "average"plays to run. Plain and simple."

I'm not sure what else could be said for wanting to be optimistic about the Pats.
Being negative seems to eat away at one's brain matter.