How important is the #1 seed, and why?

[zydecochris]

I think everybody agrees that it is great that the Patriots have the #1 seed. However, it seems to me that the #1 seed is more important in some circumstances and years than others, and I would argue that it depends on two factors:

1. Is there a big home stadium advantage? The most obvious example is the Denver stadium, with absolutely rapid, super noisy fans and thin air that takes some getting used to for the visiting team. The Seattle and KC stadiums can also be really, really noisy, which also gives their team an important home field boost.

2. How mentally tough is the visiting team? There are some teams, particularly young or badly coached ones, that are poor road teams. Other teams, like the Patriots (or the old Raven teams) are mentally tough enough to play almost as well on the road as at home.

So, last year factor 1) was a big problem and the Patriots ended up in perhaps the most difficult stadium in the NFL. This year the #1 seed it removes any chance of playing in KC, where Arrowhead stadium is a big advantage for KC. Plus, none of the possible Patriot opponents seem like amazing road teams, although I would be interested in other opinions. Is the #1 seed especially important for the Patriots this year?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Every year it is for a team that is somethkng like 15-3 at home in the postseason under BB.

 

[SalemPats]

the home game is huge, we have the cold-weather advantage, the noise can possibly cause a false start, being comfortable (Brady's record at home is incredible). I think it's a big advantage

 

[zydecochris]

Every year it is for a team that is somethkng like 15-3 at home in the postseason under BB.

Good point, I had forgotten that statistic.

 

[brdmaverick]

In the ENTIRE NFL (including all teams), the home teams went 147-107-2 this year (57.8%) while therefore the road teams won only the remaining 42.2%.

Obviously there are many different factors involved.......weather, turf, time zone, travel fatigue, crowd noise....but I'd like to start off on the side winning 57% of the time instead of 42%

 

[Ring 6]

Since 1980 (picked because at some point in the 70s best record didn't = home field, as the 1972 Dolphins had to play a road playoff game)
Home teams in the playoffs are 226-103.
No NFL team has a losing home record in the playoffs since 1980. (5 are .500)
Only 3 teams have not had a home playoff game since 1980. Anyone want to guess who they are? One will shock you.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Being at home is good. So is being healthy, hot, and happy.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Since 1980 (picked because at some point in the 70s best record didn't = home field, as the 1972 Dolphins had to play a road playoff game)
Home teams in the playoffs are 226-103.
No NFL team has a losing home record in the playoffs since 1980. (5 are .500)
Only 3 teams have not had a home playoff game since 1980. Anyone want to guess who they are? One will shock you.

I'll take a shot:

Lions
Jets
Browns?

 

[fightingirish595]

NFC east teams have all done it
NFC west teams have all done it
AFC north teams have all done it
AFC south teams have all done it
NFC south teams have all done it
NFC north teams have all done it
That leaves the AFC east and AFC west
From the afc east I can definitely eliminate New England and Miami for sure
From the west I can eliminate Denver.
So that leaves Oakland San Diego Kansas City Buffalo and The Jets. Pretty sure Buffalo hosted the AFC title against the chiefs one year so that takes them out. And I just remembered San Diego hosted New England in 06. So it's gotta be KC the Jets and the Raiders. But I think I could be wrong because Oaklands had some good seasons since 1980. But I'm almost positive my analysis of the other divisions are correct

 

[Ring 6]

I'll take a shot:

Lions
Jets
Browns?

Wrong
Wrong
Wrong

 

[Ring 6]

NFC east teams have all done it
NFC west teams have all done it
AFC north teams have all done it
AFC south teams have all done it
NFC south teams have all done it
NFC north teams have all done it
That leaves the AFC east and AFC west
From the afc east I can definitely eliminate New England and Miami for sure
From the west I can eliminate Denver.
So that leaves Oakland San Diego Kansas City Buffalo and The Jets. Pretty sure Buffalo hosted the AFC title against the chiefs one year so that takes them out. And I just remembered San Diego hosted New England in 06. So it's gotta be KC the Jets and the Raiders. But I think I could be wrong because Oaklands had some good seasons since 1980. But I'm almost positive my analysis of the other divisions are correct

You got the hardest one, KC. The divisional round will be their first home playoff game since the Christmas 1971 2 OT loss to Miami. One of the first games I remember.

Jets and Raiders are wrong.

 

[RecoveringCowboy]

we have the cold-weather advantage

Tried to find a good link on this. Heard it's not that teams love to play in the bitter cold, but that some teams adapt to it better - i.e. suffer less than others.

 

[Ring 6]

Beaing at home is good. So is being healthy, hot, and happy.

and well fed

 

[fightingirish595]

You got the hardest one, KC. The divisional round will be their first home playoff game since the Christmas 1971 2 OT loss to Miami. One of the first games I remember.

Jets and Raiders are wrong.

Wait I was just thinking didn't kc play Baltimore at home in the playoffs one year?

 

[rookBoston]

Being at home matters if the alternative is playing in Denver or Minnesota or Green Bay or Foxboro, where weather or altitude makes it hard for teams that aren't used to the conditions. When being at home means avoiding a four hour flight and a three hour time zone shift, that can help a team that has other stuff to solve.

Being on the road doesn't mean as much when you have a strong fan base in the opponent's city, if the weather if fair, if the team is resilient... stuff like that.

Last year, it came down to whether the Pats played at Denver, or Denver at Pats... the two teams were so closely matched that the influence of home field was material. This year, the Pats seem materially superior to most other teams in the AFC, and home field may not be a deciding factor. This year's team has gone undefeated on the road, seem experienced, focused, mentally tough, and have already slapped some decent teams around on their own fields-- Denver, Miami, Arizona.

I'm not sure that the #1 seed was as important to the team this year, since it's something this team could probably overcome. But still glad to have it, no doubt.

 

[BKapatsfan]

Being able to call out blitz assignments at home vs. struggling to on the road with crowd noise is a big difference.

 

[fightingirish595]

Having home field is an advantage, should always try to get it... if your team is truly good enough to win a championship, it shouldn't matter where you play. Being on the road isn't an excuse to lose

 

[fightingirish595]

You got the hardest one, KC. The divisional round will be their first home playoff game since the Christmas 1971 2 OT loss to Miami. One of the first games I remember.

Jets and Raiders are wrong.

I'm starting to think every team has hosted a home playoff game since 1980 lol. What were the other 2 teams

 

[BobDigital]

It goes year to year but obviously it is better to have it than not.

This year though the AFC #1 Seed was huge. You are home for the 2 games you need to win and cause you are #1 you get a fairly easy opponent the first week. Getting #1 punched our ticket to the final four pretty much. I would be disappointed if we lost in the divisional round to Pitt/KC but at least i could see it as reasonable. Losing to any of Miami/Houston/Oakland at this point doesn't seem within the realms of reason at home in a playoff game this is must win. I just can't see this team losing it. I could not tell you what odds It would take me to bet against the Pats. Even 100:1 I would probably put down the 100 and figure i am getting a free buck.

So yeah winning the #1 seed in the AFC this year pretty much put the Pats as an autopick to get to the AFCCG if they weren't already.

 

[Ring 6]

Wait I was just thinking didn't kc play Baltimore at home in the playoffs one year?

Um, I think I am wrong here. I ran this on pro football reference, but KC definitely has played home playoff games, 6 of them since 1980 in fact.
Have to recheck my report.