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Hernandez family suing Patriots because Hernandez had CTE


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Everyone, and especially the researchers themselves, are aware of the limitations. What you propose is strictly impossible, by the way. Currently, a CTE diagnosis can only be rendered posthumously. So unless you're planning on killing your cohort of children at age 30 to pry open their skulls, you're just going to have to make do with relatively small n convenience samples of people who donated their dead brains.

I've said this before, though. Even if literally nobody else but the brains they had in the last study had CTE (in which they found like 95% had CTE), it would still represent about 10% of the NFL population who died during the period brains were collected. That's literally the bottom floor possible (it's probably several times higher), and even that is stunning, epidemic levels. By contrast, it presents in just a fraction of a percentage point of the non-football population.

Strawman fallacy on your part, but that's irrelevant. It wouldn't require opening the brain of every member of a study to gather information. CTE sufferers exhibit certain behavioral changes. Study the behavior and see if naturally aggressive males, the ones who gravitate to football, have higher rates of depression, anti-social behavior and suicide. There are many ways to get valid information instead of running studies that confirm what you already thought and wanted to find.

The CTE studies are guilty of post hoc assumptions--after this, therefore because of this. Just because some reputable group runs a poorly designed study and trumpets their findings doesn't make them right. A large segment of society would love to see the downfall of traditional male activities and will not dig too deeply into the study design if it confirms what they just had to know was right.
 
How many 27 year old ex football players' brains do you suppose they have looked at in their research history?

Chris Henry died at 26yo.
From Wikipedia:
The discovery that Henry had CTE has become a serious issue of concern for football and brain safety, especially since Henry was relatively young and had never been diagnosed with a concussion in any of his five NFL seasons or during his college career at West Virginia. Concern has been raised whether an accumulation of lesser blows could eventually be enough to cause brain damage.
 
It is interesting that Baez disregarded any of this in the Hernandez trials, particularly in the penalty phase.. maybe he screwed up, or maybe he was saving this as a basis for a civil suit..

I find the whole thing sleazy, without regard it is an expensive way for the Hernandez family to go and would agree that the Atty. would hope that the NFL/Pats will offer some type of out of court settlement, some call that a "shakedown"... the cost of the current investigation plus the cost of the deposition phase and then trial are astronomical.

Hernandez was a thug when he lived in Bristol and when he went to Florida, he had issues in high school.. he had violence issues when he was a student at Florida, prior to this suit they blamed all of Aaron's problems on the death of his father.

Somewhere along the line that they all are going to realize that Aaron was a bad dude, who had a criminal history and for some reason he avoided prosecution for earlier crimes..
 
If the NFL loses this case, then football as we know it will cease to exist.

Football as I know it has already ceased to exist.

This past Thursday is a great example of what I'm talking about. There I was finally enjoying a non-Pats NYFL game as sloppy as it was, seeing the 49ers make one play after another to get back into a game they were trailing by 15 with 5 minutes left without the ball, and the refs decide to end the game on a phantom offensive PI call on the 49ers on a converted 3rd and 20 that would have made the end very interesting.
 
Seriously?

Give people credit.

If 99% of the people playing HS football or higher or parent doesn't know concussions = cte by now then they are still in 1992

Speaking as a parent, I feel lucky now for a few things.

That my oldest son started football late because he was much too big for Pop Warner.
That he lost his senior year of HS football to an injury and decided not to pursue the sport in college.
Also that my youngest son never played at all.

I didn't feel lucky at the time but I was.
 
Chronic traumatic encephalopathy - Wikipedia
Hernandez attorney said his CTE was "the most severe case ever found in someone as young as him".
Of course since CTE has only been known about for a few years and can only be found after death and Hernandez killed himself at 27 years old he may in fact be the only person ever examined for CTE as young as that.
Sensationalism.

There were 17yo and a 21yo football players who were diagnosed postmortem.
Chris Henry was 26yo
Probably many in betweeen.
 
Why has the NFL, colleges, or high schools not required players to sign a waiver/consent form before being allowed to participate?
 
Speaking as a parent, I feel lucky now for a few things.

That my oldest son started football late because he was much too big for Pop Warner.
That he lost his senior year of HS football to an injury and decided not to pursue the sport in college.
Also that my youngest son never played at all.

I didn't feel lucky at the time but I was.

Yep- very lucky.
 
Strawman fallacy on your part, but that's irrelevant. It wouldn't require opening the brain of every member of a study to gather information. CTE sufferers exhibit certain behavioral changes. Study the behavior and see if naturally aggressive males, the ones who gravitate to football, have higher rates of depression, anti-social behavior and suicide. There are many ways to get valid information instead of running studies that confirm what you already thought and wanted to find.

The CTE studies are guilty of post hoc assumptions--after this, therefore because of this. Just because some reputable group runs a poorly designed study and trumpets their findings doesn't make them right. A large segment of society would love to see the downfall of traditional male activities and will not dig too deeply into the study design if it confirms what they just had to know was right.

A study doesn't have to be an experimental design in order to be "good science" even if that's the gold standard. Most studies do not use experimental designs, and even the ones that do take liberties with their assumptions (for example, much of biomedical research assumes that mice are physiologically equivalent to humans). There are methodologies to account for factors beyond the scientist's control. It's literally why statistics exists as a field.

The funny thing in your post is that what you propose studying with the cohort of children would be bad science. A study that assumed anyone who exhibits aggression is attributable to an underlying condition of CTE versus any one of a hundred other explanations would get thrown out by any publication immediately. It also would never get IRB approval. If you wanted to measure if kids who play football are more aggressive, with some operationalized measure of aggression as the dependent variable, then that could be done. But you also couldn't then say it was due to CTE except as one of many possible causes. Then people would take issue with how you measure aggression, etc.

Currently, the only way to diagnose CTE is posthumously. You pry open someone's skull and look at the tau deposits and it's pretty obvious. 27 year olds don't have severe tau deposits from Alzheimer's or normal aging processes. There's a pretty clear correlation between suicide and CTE and you can study that statistically. You can't prove any counterfactual of course (what happens if Aaron Hernandez never plays football), and you can't say for certain whether CTE is the proximate cause (people, after all, kill themselves for any number of reasons). So you have a correlation, and a strong correlation indicates a risk factor or symptom. Not all colds cause sneezing, and not all sneezing is caused by colds, but sneezing is one possible indicator of a cold.

In any case, we have a pretty good idea of what CTE does without needing to track people with CTE, since at high ends it's very similar to Alzheimer's or senile dementia. Both of these are known to cause seemingly random bursts of aggression or anger, as anyone with a family member suffering one or both will tell you.

We have a fairly sizable proportion of the brains of all NFL players who died in the last 8 years or so. Believe me, I'm skeptical of a lot of very crappy science, and a lot of studies that are trumpeted in the papers and on TV are awful studies by charlatans (don't believe anything anybody says about diet and nutrition, for example). But this isn't crappy science. The studies are literally just chopping up dead brains and looking at the tau accumulation. It's the tau accumulation that causes the symptoms; and, as noted above, we have years and years of Alzheimer's and dementia research for that.
 
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What are (if any), the effects of AH's drug use on the status of his brain? I imagine all that heroin and PCP would do something. Probably bad to combine that plus CTE
 
Chronic traumatic encephalopathy - Wikipedia


There were 17yo and a 21yo football players who were diagnosed postmortem.
Chris Henry was 26yo
Probably many in betweeen.

Not a very big sample size for their lawyers to claim "worst case of CTE in a 27 yr old". There cannot be to many 27 yr olds who died and had their brains examined.

I just don't see Hernadez's family having a shot of winning this case. CTE was public and being discussed while he was still playing. He could have walked at any time. He played more snaps in high school/college then in the NFL. There is no way to prove CTE is from his time in the NFL. He was violent long before he entered the NFL. I don't think they have a chance.
 
It's not millions and millions rather thousands and thousands.

The total amount of people to ever have played professional football, ever, is probably less than 50,000 and is probably closer to 25,000.

We are at just the beginning stages of CTE discovery. Since CTE has become an issue (over the last 15 years) we have seen 110 tested brains out of 111 test positive for CTE. Which means we will probably never know anything about the brains of the players who played in the 60's or earlier.

Anyways I'm pretty sure that CTE is a serious issue and not just for the NFL. Any sport or activity that causes the brain to "jolt" will have issues with CTE. Just my opinion.

Counting high school and college players and over the 100 years or so that football has been an organized sport: millions. Plus all the other contact sports played the world over for centuries--boxing, rugby, wrestling etc... I don't doubt CTE exists, just that the current hysteria surrounding it is overblown. Cut through the hype and what do you find? That the average life expectancy of NFL players is higher than that of the average population (77.5 years for NFL players, per OSHA stats).
 
I think there are several likely or highly possible outcomes from all of this (and not just this lawsuit):

1) Youth, High School, College, Semi-pro and Professional Football Leagues will require their participants (or their parents/guardians) to sign (and have notarized) long, rigorously detailed and painstakingly worded waivers of responsibility in perpetuity, on an annual basis or as part of a Professional Contract, for all forms of long term injury, with specific reference to CTE, before they take the field or even try out for their teams (i.e., not the two or three page forms that parents or players sign today). It's the United States, so nothing can ever stop anyone from suing for anything, but this will afford the teams some form of protection.

2) The number of young people involved in organized, Tackle Football will gradually decline.

3) Over a 10--25 year period the Revenues and Valuations of NFL teams will flatten and then gradually decline. I don't expect to see any flattening or decline in the next five or so years, but, eventually, this will happen, unless rule changes make the game unrecognizable from what it is today or unless there are advances in head protection equipment that will make the players look like Transformers or Aliens and that will be too expensive for Youth or High School teams to afford and maintain.

4) More owners will follow the example of folks like the Krafts (New England Revolution), the Glazer Family (Manchester United), Shahid Khan (Fulham) and others by hedging their long term family financial interests and investing in Soccer franchises. As a side note, Robert Kraft will rue the day that he didn't take the opportunity to buy or invested in Man U.

5) The Hernandez suit will most likely fail, but one never knows when you have a jury and the standard of proof is the Civil hurdle of, as someone else pointed out, 50.00001% (AKA "50% plus a feather"). Hernandez' behaviour problems started well before he entered the NFL, so limiting responsibility to the Patriots and the League for responsibility is a stretch. Eventually there will, however, be a case against a major University or even a Municipality (in the case of a School District) that is strong and credible.

6) Once it is possible to test for CTE in living patients, the landscape will change entirely.
 
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Why has the NFL, colleges, or high schools not required players to sign a waiver/consent form before being allowed to participate?
I'm not sure they haven't. Don't high schools and colleges have all kids sign a blanket waiver? I'm sure it's in there somewhere in a standard NFL contract.
 
Football as I know it has already ceased to exist.

This past Thursday is a great example of what I'm talking about. There I was finally enjoying a non-Pats NYFL game as sloppy as it was, seeing the 49ers make one play after another to get back into a game they were trailing by 15 with 5 minutes left without the ball, and the refs decide to end the game on a phantom offensive PI call on the 49ers on a converted 3rd and 20 that would have made the end very interesting.
Bad calls are hardly a recent phenomenon in the NFL.
 
Why has the NFL, colleges, or high schools not required players to sign a waiver/consent form before being allowed to participate?
There is no waiver that can indemnify a party against negligence. That's why every single one of these lawsuits accuses the league of negligence (as well as other things such as deliberate concealment, etc)
 
Regardless of the merits of the suit, to me the real issue is CTE's destructive effects on a player's life. Extreme anger, deep depression, anxiety, and suicide are very much part of the picture. In other words, esp in the more advanced cases (and this was the most advanced ever measured) the player is going through a kind of unimaginable hell in terms of physical and psychological pain. Thus the growing list of ex-NFL players with CTE who have taken their own lives.

The NFL active/former players’ suicide rate is at 6.1 per 100,000 since 1987 and 12.5 per 100,000 since 2005. This is below the US male suicide rate of 19.2 per 100,000 as documented in 2009. [Source, Center for Disease Control]. Don't get too excited over the media's disease of the week. This is the same community who can't determine whether or not milk is healthy. After 50 years of study.
 
The NFL active/former players’ suicide rate is at 6.1 per 100,000 since 1987 and 12.5 per 100,000 since 2005. This is below the US male suicide rate of 19.2 per 100,000 as documented in 2009. [Source, Center for Disease Control]. Don't get too excited over the media's disease of the week. This is the same community who can't determine whether or not milk is healthy. After 50 years of study.

How do the rates compare when adjusted for wealth (accumulated) and income (per annum)? How about age range, that is, roughly 18-35 years old in most non-Brady cases?

It's only by rigorous control for these variables that you can compare and get a meaningful comparison for the variable "playing pro football."

That would be hard. That's why it's in question form. I ain't doing it. But I damn sure am not going to say "oh then that's okay" when comparing comparatively healthy, wealthy (yes, even the 3-year career guys), young men to the rest of the population. The general rate is way up of late, and the profile I hear the most about is the middle aged, working class/working poor white guy. Of course, that is from memory and might well be anecdotal.

I'm just saying, control for non-football variables, and you can get the impact of football on such events.

If you want more work, you could compare the outward-focused violence rates with similar controls.
 
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