Expectations for Mitchell next year?

[meatface]

Settle down everyone, name one WR drafted by Belichick who vaulted into superstardom in year 2.

Mitchell begins the season as the #3 target in this offense at best. This is if he vaults ahead of Hogan, which is no guarantee. If Mitchell is any higher target than this, it means either Edelman or Gronk are lost for the year.

A realistic expectation is that Mitchell's early career follows a Branch/Givens arc, one useful piece in a deep passing offense. He could emerge as a star, but that opportunity is still a few years off. WRs are brought up slow in this system.

Deion Branch. Year two he had 57 receptions, 803 yards and 3 Touchdowns and I am all aboard the hype train of Mitchell as the new Branch.

 

[The Brandon Five]

"We'll see how it goes".

 

[Wrath Mania]

Do you remember a guy by the name of Jonas Gray?

Guy who let one plug-and-run victory against the Colts go to his head, was celebrating with people on twitter all night then later in the week overslept for a meeting and was never heard from again? Yeah I remember him. Since he seems the total opposite of MM in terms of discipline I'm not quite sure what point you're making though.

 

[meatface]

Guy who let one plug-and-run victory against the Colts go to his head, was celebrating with people on twitter all night then later in the week overslept for a meeting and was never heard from again? Yeah I remember him. Since he seems the total opposite of MM in terms of discipline I'm not quite sure what point you're making though.

I'm saying that anyone can break out for a random awesome game, Dobson could have easily done it.

 

[Wrath Mania]

I'm saying that anyone can break out for a random awesome game, Dobson could have easily done it.

If you think the SB down by 25 points qualifies as 'a random game', and that Dobson could have easily made some of the catches Mitchell did in those circumstances, I don't know what to say.

 

[Bill Lee]

I would like to see the Pats bring in Randy Moss to help with Mitchell's off season training. I think Mitchell has the "sneaky fast" speed that helped make Moss great.

You can't presume someone great at doing certain things can teach others to do them.

 

[ChessToCheckers]

Love Mitchell, but, like many, concerned for his durability.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him invited to Montana with Hogan this off season.

 

[stinkypete]

Deion Branch. Year two he had 57 receptions, 803 yards and 3 Touchdowns and I am all aboard the hype train of Mitchell as the new Branch.

That is a more measured expectation than many on here are stating.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Aaron Dobson had a pretty good rookie season and then regressed.

72 targets, 37 receptions (51.4% catch), 519 yards, 4TD. <-- AD

48 targets, 32 receptions (66.7%), 401 yards, 4 TD. <-- MM

On paper, I agree. However, Mitchell just seems to pass the eye test in a way Dobson never did (though that could be hindsight bias). Mitchell seemed to gain Brady's trust, and run those intermediate routes outside the numbers that are so crucial to continuing drives.

 

[NormZauchin]

72 targets, 37 receptions (51.4% catch), 519 yards, 4TD. <-- AD

48 targets, 32 receptions (66.7%), 401 yards, 4 TD. <-- MM

On paper, I agree. However, Mitchell just seems to pass the eye test in a way Dobson never did (though that could be hindsight bias). Mitchell seemed to gain Brady's trust, and run those intermediate routes outside the numbers that are so crucial to continuing drives.

In my post, I did not mean to say that Mitchell would not improve, but to caution against what seemed to me to be overly enthusiastic estimates of his future contributions. I agree that he passes the "eye test," but one rookie season is a relatively small sample upon which to base future projections. A player who helps the team in his first year and then improves in his second is a much safer bet to be a long term asset. Besides Dobson, I think of Terry Glenn, who set the record for receptions (90) by a rookie (since broken). While he had a productive pro career, he never again matched that number. Also, the wide receiver position seems more vulnerable to wide swings in performance. Witness Brandon LaFell, who had half as many receptions his second season with the Pats as he did in the first and went from 7 TDs to zero. He has since made a recovery with the Bengals, 64 receptions, 6 touchdowns in 2016.

 

[patfanken]

Some comments on the comments:

1. When are we going to learn that the Pats have never had a true #1 receiver, with the 3 year exception of Randy Moss.

2. Mitchell's numbers are all going to be a function of targets and that is gong to vary depending on the weekly game plan and who he matches up on.

3. Until he finally eaars down, Edelman will get the most targets, followed by Gronk and whoever the RB of the week is going to be. So this fact will greatly impact the WR's. So Michell and Hogan's porduction will likely be very inconsistent game to game. Sometimes the plan and match ups will be favorable and they'll get 12 targets and have 80-120 yds. Sometimes they'll only get 4 or 5 or kess and seem to disappear.

Maybe someone will Floyd's skills will change that somewhat, but we don't even know if he'll be back. Remember in Josh's ideal world, Brady would only attempt 35-40 passes pergame. So opportunities with such a wide spread offense like this, INDIVIDUAL WR's are no going to get as many opportunities to rack up big numbers.

4. In the Pats offense Michael Floyd would never get to be "the guy", might be the biggest reason he leaves/ Hicks left because he knew if he stayed, he'd just be one of the guys in a DT rotation, instead he went to Chicago where he knew he'd get a lot more snaps. Same here for Floyd. Here he'd be just one of 5 WR's fighting for snaps and targets, and ALWAYS behind Edelman, Gronk, and whoever the RB of the week is. (Still hope he signs.)

5. Given all that, Mitchell needs to get stronger, and I have no doubt, that within the system he can be a valuable asset even if he winds up with very pedestrian looking stats in the range of 6-800 yds and 4-6 TD's

6. The superbowl was a micorcosm of the Pats pass offense. Over 46o yds, yet only one receiver over 100 yds, and he was just over a hundred and took 14 catches to get there. But Hogan, Mitchell Amenda, Edelman and Bennett all had 4 or more catches and 57-87 yds. Brady has always tended to spread the ball, and take what the defense gives him. The way this offense is set up, only Edelman is likely to get enough targets to get close to 1000 yds.

 

[meatface]

If you think the SB down by 25 points qualifies as 'a random game', and that Dobson could have easily made some of the catches Mitchell did in those circumstances, I don't know what to say.

yeah because who ever heard of someone have a really good game in the playoffs seemingly out of nowhere.

 

[stinkypete]

Some comments on the comments:

1. When are we going to learn that the Pats have never had a true #1 receiver, with the 3 year exception of Randy Moss.

Troy Brown in '01 - '02 was a legit #1.

 

[zoostation]

Do you remember a guy by the name of Jonas Gray?

Am I missing something? Not sure what your point is. Did Jonas Gray run for 100 yards in the September Super Bowl or something?

 

[zoostation]

Here are really the core reasons the sky is the limit for MM. ----- Malcom Mitchell on NFLN 2/17 ------
The combination of his physical capabilities and his leadership qualities separate him from the Chad Jackson, Aaron Dobson comparisons.

 

[The Brandon Five]

60 receptions
900 yds
7 TD

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Brady said he trusts Mitchell. He never trusted Dobson that's why LaFell was signed in '14.

"Brady trusts Mitchell" is huge. You remember when we were in the ditch, and before "Do Your Job" the word was "Trust"?

That was to counteract hesitancy, throwing guys open even if you thought they wouldn't get the hint, etc. Just pretend they'll be where they're supposed to be. Brady has enough of an eye for whether he can "click" with a guy by now. "Brady trusts..." goes way further for me in a receiver than big long arms, great hands, great 40 speed. We have never had success solely by the measurables of our receivers, with the exception of Randy Moss (the good Randy). It's all been scheme, work, and clicking with the GOAT.

Now, there is a floor of what you can allow to be your WR corps. God you guys remember the force of nature that was Reche Caldwell? That said... Mitchell shows good hands, ability to get open (granted, against the depleted Atlanta defense in the SB,) and chemistry w Brady.

Click with the GOAT, have decent skills, you're in... I believe it's that simple.

8 TDs and 1000. Of course, right now, I have a rosy idea of everybody/everything. If you asked me my expectations of every possible target, Brady would pass for 6500 and 75 TDs.

So, about right.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

PS, he continues the reign of successful Malco(l)ms. The Malco(l)m position might be the most important position on the field, given the recent slump at Brandon.

 

[RobertWeathers]

60 receptions
900 yds
7 TD

I think he will absolutely be a better player. There is no doubt about that.

What I'm wary off is getting caught up in the stats projections

I think if he was a top 3 target he'd be around what you say.

The great thing about this offense is you have JE, Gronk, White, Hogan , Bennett, Floyd (if they are back) and DLew all capable of having 50+ catch seasons. Not enough balls to go around.

My gut tells you will be right with the catches but I dont think he'll be a 15ypc guy. I think hes more of an intermediate threat and will be similar to last year.

 

[aluminum seats]

You can't presume someone great at doing certain things can teach others to do them.

Yep. Can't teach speed.