Dorsett over/under 1000 yards

[RobertWeathers]

Dorsett had a good day Today wouldn't be surprised if he 0 catches against that Jags Secondary next week.

I think you need to take a break from this board and find your happy place.

No one wants to read your negative ****

 

[maineman209]

Well, he would have to approximate what he did today every game, which won’t happen. Also, Hogan went 1 catch for 11 yards, think that’s going to happen all year? Today’s game plan favored Dorsett, but he’s no Cooks. I think over 500 yards, less than 1000 yards.

BTW Cooks had the 13th best yardage season for any Pats WR ever, yet he’s unfairly seen (by some) as soft and/or not clutch, but to me he just glided around and caught passes all day. So smooth. No, I wouldn’t have paid him 88/5, but still he was really good.

Dorsett had 528 yards receiving in his second NFL season - Indy, 2016 - so 500+ yards this season doesn't seem at all unreasonable, especially now that he appears to be clearly "on the same page" with Brady.

There were signs of that late last year, though. Dorsett (without having experienced OTAs or Camp) was pretty poor in the first half of 2017, catching only 4 of 8 targets, so a lot of fans had written him off by the BYE week. After the BYE, however, he caught 8 of 10 for 109 yards, and went 2 of 3 for 50 more yards in the post-season. A catch rate of 77% on a ypc of 15.9 yards over the course of 9 games active isn't awful, especially considering the typical completion percentage on that depth of target for most QBs.

So, it's perhaps worth noting that, in his 2016 season in Indy, his ypc on 33 catches from Luck was 16.0 yards, with a catch rate of only 56% (up from 46% as a rookie). He ended last season with the Pats having a 67% catch rate on a 16.2 ypc. The 46% to 56% to 67% arc seems to show that Dorsett is capable of making steady improvement.

Yesterday's 100% catch rate (7-for-7 on a ypc of 9.4 yards) certainly isn't going to hold up (LOL!), although it begins to show that Dorsett can be very effective on shorter routes, in addition to deeper ones.

I wouldn't say that yesterday's "gameplan favored" Dorsett, particularly. From what I saw, Dorsett wasn't the first, or even second read in Brady's progression on about half of his targets. Brady appeared to be looking to Hogan before Dorsett most of the time, but the Texans' defense appeared to be more focused on taking Hogan away, too. So, the coverage almost certainly had more effect on the number of targets Dorsett saw, and on Hogan's 1-for-5 performance, than McD's gameplan.

 

[Steamer86]

WTF happened with the Brissett trade?

 

[Soliel]

And to expand on his tweet. People that watched him run decoy routes on A22 last year suspected even sooner.

I saw that but thought it was anomalous. I saw him in pre season and he looked more confident.

 

[Simpelton]

He managed to make himself a reliable target for Brady last night... but once Edelman comes back his role will shrink. I think a more sensible target is in the 6-700 yards range. Chris Hogan territory basically. If he gets there, he'll have made a valuable contribution.

 

[Wordsmyth]

Philip was awesome yesterday.

 

[Oswlek]

Yesterday's 100% catch rate

Even more so when he wasn't the target on one of his catches!

 

[40yrpatsfan]

He's playing much faster, knows where he's supposed to go. Brady & McD now know what his strengths are. His route running as well as his YAC look great. He can be effective short, medium and deep. Yesterday he looked like a 1st round draft choice that he is.

 

[Tony2046]

Dorsett had 528 yards receiving in his second NFL season - Indy, 2016 - so 500+ yards this season doesn't seem at all unreasonable, especially now that he appears to be clearly "on the same page" with Brady.

There were signs of that late last year, though. Dorsett (without having experienced OTAs or Camp) was pretty poor in the first half of 2017, catching only 4 of 8 targets, so a lot of fans had written him off by the BYE week. After the BYE, however, he caught 8 of 10 for 109 yards, and went 2 of 3 for 50 more yards in the post-season. A catch rate of 77% on a ypc of 15.9 yards over the course of 9 games active isn't awful, especially considering the typical completion percentage on that depth of target for most QBs.

So, it's perhaps worth noting that, in his 2016 season in Indy, his ypc on 33 catches from Luck was 16.0 yards, with a catch rate of only 56% (up from 46% as a rookie). He ended last season with the Pats having a 67% catch rate on a 16.2 ypc. The 46% to 56% to 67% arc seems to show that Dorsett is capable of making steady improvement.

Yesterday's 100% catch rate (7-for-7 on a ypc of 9.4 yards) certainly isn't going to hold up (LOL!), although it begins to show that Dorsett can be very effective on shorter routes, in addition to deeper ones.

I wouldn't say that yesterday's "gameplan favored" Dorsett, particularly. From what I saw, Dorsett wasn't the first, or even second read in Brady's progression on about half of his targets. Brady appeared to be looking to Hogan before Dorsett most of the time, but the Texans' defense appeared to be more focused on taking Hogan away, too. So, the coverage almost certainly had more effect on the number of targets Dorsett saw, and on Hogan's 1-for-5 performance, than McD's gameplan.

Dorsett may force teams to pay more attention to him which could help open up other routes including Hogan's. Great way to start the season though.

 

[Tony2046]

He's playing much faster, knows where he's supposed to go. Brady & McD now know what his strengths are. His route running as well as his YAC look great. He can be effective short, medium and deep. Yesterday he looked like a 1st round draft choice that he is.

Making the first guy miss is something new to me. It looks like he's playing with confidence.

 

[luuked]

Making the first guy miss is something new to me. It looks like he's playing with confidence.

He had that one open field play late last year on one of the rare occasions where he got the ball when he shook the first player in front of him smoothly in open field. I remember thinking how this is exactly what Cooks was missing.

 

[Tony2046]

He had that one open field play late last year on one of the rare occasions where he got the ball when he shook the first player in front of him smoothly in open field. I remember thinking how this is exactly what Cooks was missing.

@SammyBlueCat must have been proud. I'm not even sure a cat is that quick. haha

 

[SHOWTIME15]

He played great yesterday but I expect his production to dip once Edelman comes back. So I’m still saying way under 1000 yards.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

What I liked most was the way he was plucking the ball out the air with his hands not letting it get into his body. You can tell he has worked on that in the offseason.

He made a nice sideline catch before the half that was reminiscent of a Gronk pluck. No pluck intenteded lol

 

[PatsDeb]

Looks like he's going over for the year. A solid performance by a 2nd year (with the Pats) smurf, just how Brady likes them!

 

[SammyBlueCat]

@SammyBlueCat must have been proud. I'm not even sure a cat is that quick. haha

Just like I coach em

 

[Tuck]

Was at the game yesterday and Dorsett was indeed impressive. His timing with Brady was spot on as was his route running. He looks like he's in better shape too. Its early but he looked like the guy they wanted Cooks to be.

 

[oldrover]

Seven weeks later... dang...

 

[goheels22002]

Dorsett has 198 yards receiving through 8 games. If Edelman, Hogan, White and Gordon stay healthy (or out of trouble), Dorsett will probably come in around 500 yards over 16 games. If any one of those guys misses time, he becomes the 4th receiver and may pick up the pace towards 1,000 yards.

Patterson isn't really competing with Dorsett for targets. He's more of a big target in traffic - bubble screens and unusual stuff out of the backfield where his size can get him to the next level. Dorsett is more of a four- or five-wide option.

I don't think it's a trust thing with Brady, really. It's just that the other guys get better separation.

 

[maineman209]

Seven weeks later... dang...

Yep.

His 19/24 for 190 yds and 2 TDs through the first five games put him on a pace for 61/77 for about 600 yds and 6 TDs. Even guessing that was optimistic at that (much later) point, since it was clear that, if Edelman came back mostly functional, and Gordon did anything at all, Dorsett and/or Hogan would have their tgts reduced.

If Dorsett ends up with 30 of 40 for 300+ yds and 3-4 TDs, that will be pretty good - the kind of season Dola might have when everyone else is healthy.