Deion Branch - will he make the roster next season?

[rookBoston]

weird..let me see here...uh..LT,LG,C,RG,RT...that's five...QB makes six...single running back makes seven...then Gronk(no brainer), Hernandez(no brainer),Welker(no brainer)..I KNOW I'm missing somebody...and I don't see him in this post above....dyam...OH...WAIT...of course..Brandon Lloyd...that's eleven...so...why is Branch such a hot button topic???..empty backfield with five receivers and you have Ocho signed and a known quantity is Stallworth...the Pats carried FIVE WR's on active last season..that included Edelman and Slater...OK, Welker,Lloyd,Ocho,Stallworth ,Branch..means Gonzo is gone-zo, no special teams Slater and Edelman moving to the defensive backfield?..or cut...right...keeping Branch weakens the team in two areas, versatility and special teams...I really can't see how he makes this squad unless Stallworth is 100% all done, Gonzalez is a cripple, and Ocho is still immune to the playbook.

I don't buy the argument that BB designs his roster 11 players deep. That has never been the case. It's all about versatility and weekly match ups.

Welker, Lloyd, Branch, Edelman, Slater and one of Stallworth, Gonzalez and Underwood seems entirely reasonable to me. Six is a lot of receivers, but this is Josh McDaniels we're talking about, not Bill O'Brien. Josh has always liked the option to go 5-wide, and Brady has thrived in that formation.

With guys like Ninkovich, McCourty, Woodhead and Edelman contributing on ST and in the regular rotation, BB can afford to carry a veteran like Branch solely for Offense. He found a way to carry Faulk all year, last year. This is not different.

 

[Joker]

sorry you got the impression that I was posting that BB was going with a designed 11 players for every set...I was just posting the starting depth chart and going off that...I notice you completely omitted Ocho Cinco from your six keepers and even your nine possibles...he IS signed you know...if I was going to "argue" anything it would be the idea that BB would sit Brandon Lloyd and start one from the Branch/Gonzo/Stallworth etc etc. Five wide doesn't mean you run five WR's out there...the Pats go wide with Hernandez and sometimes split Gronk out..that idea is ridiculous. Carrying Faulk last year is totally different than carrying Branch as a sixth receiver, Faulk is part of the running back depth chart from LAST season, and by carrying Branch like YOU want to, AND keeping Edelman strictly as a ST'er, you tear away Slater, and sacrifice proven skill on ST's.

Time will tell

 

[Fencer]

First, to frame things, and assuming Welker stays:

• If Edelman moves to defense, then Branch/Ocho/Stallworth/Gonzalez/Underwood/any new young guys compete for three slots.
• Ditto if Edelman totally fails to make the team.
• If he stays on offense, then it's two.

Assuming that Gonzalez' main value is as 2nd slot guy behind Welker:

• If Edelman leaves the team entirely, or really focuses on defense, Gonzalez is a favorite to stay.
• If Edelman stays on offense, Gonzalez is more of a longshot.

So I'd really say there most likely are 2 slots for:

• Chad
• Branch
• Stallworth
• Gonzalez as a longshot
• Underwood & new young guys

I think one goes to a "route-runner" and one goes to a "speed guy".

I think the "speed" spot is for Stallworth and youngsters to compete for.
I think the "route-runner" slot is for the older guys.

I think Branch has the advantage competing for the "route-runner" spot.

Obviously, any of those personnel allocations should shift if enough guys (or too few guys) are really good.

I don't think it's a big deal if the WRs (beyond Slater and perhaps returners) don't contribute much on STs, as I think most of the DBs will.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think with $400K invested Branch has the contractual edge the indicates that the team anticipates him making the roster.

Branch's deal per Reiss is $925K in base salary, a $250K signing bonus and $150K workout bonus plus $250K in incentives. Cap hit $1.325 pending incentives which could be LTBE so in that case $1.575. Dead cap hit $400K if he doesn't.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Nothing's for sure but I definitely lean towards him making the team. Too much familiarity with Brady and the system.

I'd like to see him back but I see it as a win/win situation. If he doesn't make the final roster, that probably means that Oocho/Gonzalez are picking up the offense well enough, or that Stallworth still has what it takes. Yes there's a chance he could be done but it's hard to see him going from 700 yards as a 4th option to being done in one offseason. His production decreasing in the 2nd half was due to injuries and IMO the coaches just being precautious, saving him for the postseason. He did average 50 yards a game in the postseason, again this is as the 4th option.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

You know what's wierd, if Branch averages about 600 yds/season for 2 more years he'd be top 100 in all time recieving yards without ever having a 1000 yard season

 

[Deus Irae]

2 WR locks (Lloyd and Welker)
1 "WR" lock (Slater)

That leaves the rest of the WR corps (Stallworth, Branch, Johnson, Gonzalez, Edelman, Underwood, Davis), and any future additions (Vet, Drafted WR) fighting for 3-4 spots. I don't expect Underwood or Davis to make the team, and I'd guess that Branch has the inside track on the WR3 spot, and that Edelman has the inside track on the backup slot spot, but there's going to be at least one veteran (and possibly as many as 3) getting the axe.

 

[patfanken]

I think Deion will get the message about 3 weeks into camp. There will be a nice, Troy Brown like press conference, and he will be gone. I know a lot has been made of his 700 yd season, but its less impressive when you think over a third of it came in the first 2 games. O.ver the last half of the season Deion had only one game where he produced ANYTHING of note (Eagles)

Part of his problem is that teams no longer are willing to lay back in zone defenses to defend the Pats. That is were Deion excels and is when he is his most effective. Now that teams more and more are going to a tighter, more physical style, he has become LESS and less effective. And this isn't likely to improve with age.

Now you have to add this to the fact that he is at best now a depth player. With Lloyd here he is NOT going to get even half the snaps he took last season. He is now a fringe player. A fringe player who doesn't play special teams and doesn't have any position flexibility. He doesn't play the slot. He doesn't motion. He is ONLY a Z (outside receiver)

So there you have it. Age declining skills - no special teams - no position flexibility - and his skills no longer match the defenses the Pats are predominantly seeing. That is NOT a list that makes it likely he will make the final 53.

 

[Froob]

I'd say 90% chance he makes it. So because Deion had two big games to start the year they don't count for some reason? Okay....remind me who caught that big pass on 4th and 26? Its not like Deion is coming off a 300yd 1 touchdown season. Dudes not a star but he's still clutch and good for a deep bomb once in a while. Rather him than some scrub youngster like underwood or Tate.

 

[Deus Irae]

Interesting note:

Gronk was 5th (22) in the NFL, and Welker was tied for 6th (21), in number of plays that went for 20+ yards. Branch was 49th (10), which put him at 4th on the team (Hernandez tied for 39th, with 12). Welker had 4 plays of 30+ yards, which put him in a logjam at 14th in the league, (along with my WR binkie from last year, Titus Young, among others). Branch, and Welker, had 2 such plays.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RECEIVING_20PLUS_YARDS_EACH&tabSeq=0&season=2011&experience=null&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&statisticCategory=RECEIVING&qualified=true

So, for the Patriots, their "deep threats" were the blocking tight end and slot receiver. Branch, the team's true outside receiver, was a distant 4th when it came to big yardage plays.

 

[RayClay]

Take your pick (2 of the 3) should make it.
- Branch, Stallworth, Gonzales, LLoyd

Assuming Lloyd is a lock the rest fight for one spot, not much room for aging WRs who don't contribute on special teams.

And all the other slots will be?....

I wouldn't be shocked to see all of them make it, for a time, since rolling the dice on some former superstar FA (ha) or fairly high draft pick hasn't exactly set the world on fire for us recently.

Not saying all four will, but it's probably as likely as only two, your scenario. If they show something, they will likely at least be given a chance to stick. Keep in mind, we had a slot receiver and one virtually one WR last year, so it's not like the position is on lockdown.

 

[signbabybrady]

Reiss just posted Branch's cap numbers and a large portion is paid in bonuses upping the likelihood he makes it and showing the Pats feelings on the player. I would link but I am on my phone.

Imo WR3 is Branch's to lose. Someone could easily do that but I find it hard to believe he falls from 3 to off the team.

 

[mgteich]

1) Branch was our #2 last year, with almost no contributions from the #3 through #6 (23 total catches).

2) Branch knows the system very well.

3) Branch has lost a step or two.

4) Branch will not cost much.

QUESTION
Has Branch dropped of so much that he is not worth being the #4? The answer as of now is a clear "NO". It is possible that several players will be so good in camp that at least TWO will be expected to be more valuable that Branch. This seems unlikely.

 

[Deus Irae]

1) Branch was our #2 last year, with almost no contributions from the #3 through #6 (23 total catches).

2) Branch knows the system very well.

3) Branch has lost a step or two.

4) Branch will not cost much.

QUESTION
Has Branch dropped of so much that he is not worth being the #4? The answer as of now is a clear "NO". It is possible that several players will be so good in camp that at least TWO will be expected to be more valuable that Branch. This seems unlikely.

As I noted/opined/guessed earlier, Branch seemingly has the inside track on the WR3 spot. His contract numbers are out. He's got $400k in signing and workout bonuses. He's making the team unless something significant happens to alter that between now and the start of the season. Even if the team drafts a WR who passes Branch on the depth chart, that still leaves Branch at WR5 (I'm calling the WR4 for the backup slot receiver in this version of the depth chart). He'd have to get beaten out at 2 slots on the depth chart (3 if the team keeps 6 legitimate WRs) for him not to make the team.

 

[BradyManny]

Deus post is 100% accurate.

Branch is a near lock. He's productive for what we ask him to do. It's not his fault that Ochocinco couldn't do anything.

Lloyd will jump Branch on the depth chart, but beyond that, I agree it would take 2 guys to beat out Branch to cause him to miss the team.

I'd like to see Stallworth make it since he offers something different than the other receivers.

As always, I put out the caveat that I certainly don't count Slater towards the WR total, and I hardly count Edelman there anymore either. 5 pure WRs oughta make this team.

 

[JerseyDevil26]

I don't see Gonzalez making the team. Certaintly not more valuable to the offense than Branch. I just think he doesn't make the roster because of our other options including Stallworth.

 

[The Boston Patriot]

simple question really. I know people o n other pats sites saying there is no way he makes the cut this year but I believe him to be EASILY more valuable than Ocho, Stallworth, Gonzalaez and even Edelman (purely as a receiver)

I know hes not getting any younger but I hope he makes the cut and I honestly believe he will...

Please enlighten me if thats not the case guys

Thanks

Hopefully he makes the roster on merit but I'm afraid that would be a disaster and tell us a lot about the rest of the receiving corp. My opinion, it's over, way over. He's not even good enough any more to be a 5th receiver. He needs to take the hint from Hines.

 

[mgteich]

It is great to have such a solid top 5 receivers that Belichick can take such shots in the dark regarding upgrading the backup WR position or positions.

Brady and the offense is in solid shape with Welker, Grankosksi, Lloyld, Hernandez, Branch (and Fells as a TE backup).

Considering that RB is the #5 or #6 target, we are discussing the #7 and lower receiving targets. Obviously, Branch could move down on the depth chart, but he shouldn't be moved out.

=======================================================
Johnson, Edelman and Slater are in the incumbants for the #4, #5 and #6 wide receiver roster spots. As Belichick indicated, 10 receivers in camp is not at all unusual.

Many have their choices/hopes for another receiver to make the squad. In the end, we are discussing potential upgrades. The incumbent set (plus Lloyd and Fells) are already at least as good as the 2011 passing game, which was one of the best in the nfl.
==========================
BOTTOM LINE
As of now, compared to 2011, Lloyd and Fells are in, Underwood is out. We may have further upgrades, but this is impressive. After all, Gonzalez and Stallworth haven't produced in years. Maybe one of them will beat out Johnson and/or a rookie, maybe not.

A FINAL NOTE
This is really a bottom of the roster issue. Our #7 receiving target isn't really that important. More important is that we have a 3rd TE.

 

[BradyManny]

This is how it plays out.

Welker retains his spot, duh.

Branch keeps his spot.

Lloyd takes Ocho's spot.

Either Stallworth, Ocho (in some dramatic turn of events) or a rook takes Price/Underwood's spot.

Stallworth, Gonzalez or Edelman fight for the final spot.

Slater's spot only counts towards WR based on how many we carry at other positions.

 

[Deus Irae]

It is great to have such a solid top 5 receivers that Belichick can take such shots in the dark regarding upgrading the backup WR position or positions.

They have four, not five, IMO. Given what we saw last season, and the contract the Patriots just gave him, I think it's fair to say that Branch is more of a question than a "solid".

Brady and the offense is in solid shape with Welker, Grankosksi, Lloyld, Hernandez, Branch (and Fells as a TE backup).

If Belichick is worth a damn as a GM, he'll be looking long and hard at WRs in rounds 1 and 2. Branch needs to be moved off the WR3 spot. It's going to happen this year or next.

Considering that RB is the #5 or #6 target, we are discussing the #7 and lower receiving targets. Obviously, Branch could move down on the depth chart, but he shouldn't be moved out.

If the Patriots had a RB in the Faulk mode, they'd use him more. Brady hasn't found that same comfort level with any other RB during his team in New England.

Johnson, Edelman and Slater are in the incumbants for the #4, #5 and #6 wide receiver roster spots. As Belichick indicated, 10 receivers in camp is not at all unusual.

Many have their choices/hopes for another receiver to make the squad. In the end, we are discussing potential upgrades. The incumbent set (plus Lloyd and Fells) are already at least as good as the 2011 passing game, which was one of the best in the nfl.

Counting Slater is a waste of time. He's the emergency WR, whether that's WR6 or WR7. His real position is special teams. The addition of Fells is currently evened out with the departure of BJGE, so the likely skill position numbers balance out as the same (3 TE, 5 'real' WR, 4 RB v. 2 TE, 5 'real' WR, 5 RB). Either way, whether you count Slater or not, it's still a battle for 3 WR spots unless BB opens up another slot on the roster.

BOTTOM LINE
As of now, compared to 2011, Lloyd and Fells are in, Underwood is out. We may have further upgrades, but this is impressive. After all, Gonzalez and Stallworth haven't produced in years. Maybe one of them will beat out Johnson and/or a rookie, maybe not.

Fells is gravy, but nothing to write home about. As of now, Lloyd is the key. He's an upgrade over Branch, and he should be able to threaten middle-deep and enlarge the area of the field that opponents must defend. Now the team needs the WR3 (Branch at the moment, probably) to be good enough and dependable enough that he gets on the field sufficiently often that he can impact the game by pressuring opponents to legitimately cover the 5th option in the passing game.

A FINAL NOTE
This is really a bottom of the roster issue. Our #7 receiving target isn't really that important. More important is that we have a 3rd TE.

It's for the 5th receiving option, not the 7th. This past season's 5th option (Woodhead) had only 18 receptions, which is the fewest since Brady became the quarterback (A. Smith had 19 in 2001). For 5 of the Brady years, that 18 reception total wouldn't be good enough for 7th on the receptions chart, in 3 others it wouldn't make it to 6th. For a team that's supposed to be about attacking opponents in all areas, and where Brady's favorite target is supposed to be the open one, that's not a bottom of the roster issue: that's a genuine problem.