Arizona DC says Brady tipping plays?

[JJDChE]

Even if they did have our tendencies pretty well nailed down, it really doesn't equate to 'Tom Brady tipping plays'.

Bill and the coaching staff are probably more clued in to tendencies than any other coaching staff in the league, so for one, I find it hard to believe that we're exhibiting any strong tendencies (especially after ONE game with a new OC). These coaching staffs not only review their opponents tendencies on a weekly basis, but they do self reviews to keep themselves out of tendencies.

In the end though, a lot of times you run plays because you are good at them and the other team can't stop you even if they know what it is. That shows up as a tendency but it's a conscious choice.

 

[thenepatsrule]

Horton’s “tell” tale was a tall tale | ProFootballTalk

Seems like someone wanted to show the world (for a brief period of time) that they fooled the GREATEST QB EVER

 

[Urgent]

...just read the Tall Tale PFT article referenced above.
Potentially some confusion between "Hernandez lined up tight" and under-center vs. shotgun.

The quote is 'when Hernandez was lined up tight they ran.' The analysis is center vs. shotgun. I believe the tight end can line up on the line in either shotgun or under-center.

The numbers show a strong tendency that the defense can use to set their attack when facing either shotgun or center. The hypothesis is that this can be further supplemented by identifying where Hernandez is.

Also, PFT points out that Hernandez was only on the field for three plays - hardly enough to identify tendencies. I don't think defenses are typically installed three or four plays into a game. It's more likely that the defense was studying film from pre-season, Week One, and probably last season.

However, the coach probably mis-spoke when he said 'always.' Like any other statistical approach, if you can improve the odds a bit, it can make a huge impact. You don't have to have 'always' to gain an advantage.

This isn't blackjack, but look at the impact of changing the odds by two or three percentage points by card-counting and team play. They probably don't sit the corners and play a 6-5 defense when Brady is under center. If there is another indicator that makes the run probably increase from 64% to 75%, then you can play your DE's differently, pull the safeties forward at the snap, and focus on filling gaps.

The obvious counter to this is play-action.

 

[Urgent]

Another correlary to this is "Edelman is a better blocker - that's why he was starting over Welker. Then Welker comes in when they want to pass."

That's equally dangerous. Of course it's not that simple, but that's the implication if you follow that line of thinking. If under center, and H-back/TE against the line, and Welker on the bench, then run = 80%. If shotgun, H/TE split out in slot, and Welker on the field, then pass = 90%.

 

[tuckeverlasting]

they knew the plays and still should have lost the game. i wouldn't be bragging about that.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

Everyone knows that when Brady is in the shotgun, Gronk gets called for holding ten yards downfield. The gameplan for the Cards defense rested on the right side of our line getting Tucked by Dockett and Campbell.

When someone is in the huddle or knows Brady's cadences, we get housed. See: Ravens playoff game in Jan 2010 and the Dolphins game in Miami in 2006. Both games had pressers after the triple zeroes where the opposition (Saban and Ray Lewis) admitted knowing all of his calls.

 

[Urgent]

they knew the plays and still should have lost the game. i wouldn't be bragging about that.

They were 14-point underdogs and won the game.
Something gave them an advantage.

It's an interesting theory that it was reading formations.

 

[Sciz]

They were 14-point underdogs and won the game.
Something gave them an advantage.

It's an interesting theory that it was reading formations.

No, it was the Pats' offense and STs having an off day.