Am I the only one who does NOT want Welker back?

[Deus Irae]

Wes ain't stupid, he won't sign a contract for funny money, especially after last year's negotiations. In my opinion, you'd have to guarantee most of his contract. Plus, the Pats will get outbid if they take that tactic.

There's a fair number somewhere between $8 million and $11.5 million for Welker. By lengthening the deal, but keeping the guaranteed money only for years 1-2 (or at least mostly for years 102), the Patriots would get a hedge against decline, while Welker would still be able to bring in good cash if his performance warrants it, and that should also allow for a number that gets closer and closer to the $8 million number the more the team is willing to offer a bit more 'cheddar' in terms of longer range guarantees.

The problem would potentially be that the Patriots might still be more focused on winning a negotiation than on working out a fair agreement.

As for Wes not being stupid, I agree with you. There are obviously plenty of teams that could use his help, and I expect that several would be quite willing to pay him at least somewhat accordingly.

 

[hovis]

There's a fair number somewhere between $8 million and $11.5 million for Welker. By lengthening the deal, but keeping the guaranteed money only for years 1-2 (or at least mostly for years 102), the Patriots would get a hedge against decline, while Welker would still be able to bring in good cash if his performance warrants it, and that should also allow for a number that gets closer and closer to the $8 million number the more the team is willing to offer a bit more 'cheddar' in terms of longer range guarantees.

The problem would potentially be that the Patriots might still be more focused on winning a negotiation than on working out a fair agreement.

As for Wes not being stupid, I agree with you. There are obviously plenty of teams that could use his help, and I expect that several would be quite willing to pay him at least somewhat accordingly.

That seems fair, but I doubt it will be enough to beat out the competitors. I won't venture into speculation about exactly how his contract is budgeted; however, I will go out on a limb and guess that he will get signed at 5 years, $75 million. Thirteen mill for the first two, fifteen the following two, and the final year at $19 million. The last year or two will be incentive-laden, but the first three will be primarily guaranteed.

 

[Sciz]

That seems fair, but I doubt it will be enough to beat out the competitors. I won't venture into speculation about exactly how his contract is budgeted; however, I will go out on a limb and guess that he will get signed at 5 years, $75 million. Thirteen mill for the first two, fifteen the following two, and the final year at $19 million. The last year or two will be incentive-laden, but the first three will be primarily guaranteed.

Are we talking about the same guy?

 

[hovis]

Are we talking about the same guy?

Contracts always go up, and Welker has the numbers to argue for Fitzgerald money.

 

[Ring 6]

That seems fair, but I doubt it will be enough to beat out the competitors. I won't venture into speculation about exactly how his contract is budgeted; however, I will go out on a limb and guess that he will get signed at 5 years, $75 million. Thirteen mill for the first two, fifteen the following two, and the final year at $19 million. The last year or two will be incentive-laden, but the first three will be primarily guaranteed.

Thats not happeneing

 

[Sciz]

Contracts always go up, and Welker has the numbers to argue for Fitzgerald money.

Yeah, if he wants the GM on the phone to laugh at him and then hang up.

 

[coolguy]

Contracts always go up, and Welker has the numbers to argue for Fitzgerald money.

You named the only player bill/kraft would trade gronk for

 

[hovis]

Yeah, if he wants the GM on the phone to laugh at him and then hang up.

DeSean Jackson of all people got 5 years at $51 million LAST year. Wes consistently racks up over twice as many receptions, more yards, and more TDs. Someone will offer substantially more than that for his services.

 

[DocHoliday]

That seems fair, but I doubt it will be enough to beat out the competitors. I won't venture into speculation about exactly how his contract is budgeted; however, I will go out on a limb and guess that he will get signed at 5 years, $75 million. Thirteen mill for the first two, fifteen the following two, and the final year at $19 million. The last year or two will be incentive-laden, but the first three will be primarily guaranteed.

Are you high?

The Patriots offered 9 per last year, now you think they're going to offer roughly 13-14 per?

For that much money they'd just take over Fitzgerald's contract.

 

[hovis]

Are you high?

The Patriots offered 9 per last year, now you think they're going to offer 15 per??!

Not as high as you. If you actually read my post, you'd know that I was talking about a team other than the Patriots offering that kind of money.

Reading comprehension: it's important.

 

[Sciz]

DeSean Jackson of all people got 5 years at $51 million LAST year. Wes consistently racks up over twice as many receptions, more yards, and more TDs. Someone will offer substantially more than that for his services.

Jackson was also 25 when he got his contract. Nobody is going to give Welker a 5 year contract, much less for Fitz money.

 

[jnug]

Wes has entered a part of his career that will make it hard for the Pats to sign him at least if you go by their history. Wes will be attractive to a ton of teams that want to make a splashy signing and that will likely take him out of range for the Pats. I don't think they will want to pay him franchised player money either although I could be wrong on that one. That said, if they don't franchise him I think the realistic chances that the Pats will sign him are pretty close to 0.

Lloyd is a completely different story. Cutting Lloyd makes little sense. They might could trade him although also unlikely. Lloyd is a victim of expectations but where did those expectations come from? Lloyd was supposed to be a guy that would at least stretch the field horizontally. Has he stretched the field in any direction? He is what he is but that is is very very similar to what they have had. Just about all of the Pats receivers function in the same parts of the field and their only deep threat is a TE, a guy who will be battling injury his entire career because of the position he plays. There is just not enough room out there for Gronk, Hernandez, Ballard, Welker, Edelman, Lloyd, Vereen Et al. and having a TE as your only deep threat is just stupid.

Part of the problem probably solves itself. Again I think the chances of signing Wes are pretty slim.....probably franchise him or nothing. This time around I think that will likely translate to nothing. Edelman can't stay on the field long enough to make him part of this discussion. Edelman turns out to be a Pats luxury for about eight games every year and that is that.

By some means or another the Pats need a true outside/deep threat. They have duplicitous pieces and often can't use them optimally anyway.

I would like to keep Wes if they can afford him but not at the expense of a true outside/deep threat. Folks want to argue that we have done the outside/deep threat thing with Moss and it did not happen. Well you can make the same case about the Welker thing only over a longer period and it has not happened with that either. Now Wes is battling age and the fact that he is getting hit much more solidly much more often now.

I think the Wes decision is already made because of what he will be offered to go elsewhere. But I don't want them to bring in a bunch of Welker wanna be's. Get this team somebody besides Gronk that can go up and get the thing....either via draft or FA. Probably gonna have to be draft.

 

[Deus Irae]

DeSean Jackson of all people got 5 years at $51 million LAST year. Wes consistently racks up over twice as many receptions, more yards, and more TDs. Someone will offer substantially more than that for his services.

Your point about the numbers is a valid one, but Welker's age works against high dollars, and his position (slot WR) works against high dollars as well. Belichick was asked about the slot WR position, and his comment was that he essentially considers it a distinct position in today's game. Part of that means that he doesn't necessarily equate the dollar values as being identical for outside and slot WRs.

 

[DocHoliday]

Not as high as you. If you actually read my post, you'd know that I was talking about a team other than the Patriots offering that kind of money.

Reading comprehension: it's important.

You are equally high if you think another team will pay him that much.

Franchise tag is roughly ~ 11/12. Why would anyone pay multiple years above that?

 

[jnug]

I think the problem is not defined by the cost of franchising Wes but by the amount below the franchise number that another team will pay Wes. Clearly the Pats franchised him because they thought it likely that some team would offer Wes more than the $9m they offered and that Wes would take it.

One year later I think the Pats are left in the same spot only this time I think they will be less inclined to offer what other teams would offer for more than 1 year and less inclined to pay franchise money for Wes as well.

 

[Uncle Meat]

If there weren't a salary cap, then sure. He has definitely outplayed his past contract. But that's not how things work. Every dollar you use to overpay Welker based on past production rather than future expectations in one less dollar to use to convince a fourth year player to stick around through his prime. From this point onward, the Pats need to spend their cap money how they think it best helps the team. Using that money to overpay Welker because they didn't pay him enough early in his career is not how they do that.

Perhaps you misunderstood me.

Past production indicates future production, right? Well there were guys getting paid THREE times as much as Wes Welker who put up inferior numbers as he did. How long did this go on? FIVE years. Again, FIVE YEARS! Then he was franchised, and players that are worth something do not like that, generally. Franchising him again this year would almost be an insult IMO, although that would be $11.4 million guaranteed.

The bottom line is that he should not be low-balled again. The Pats had a top five receiver in production for five years (FIRST in receptions), and they paid him $3.62 million a year. That's kind of outrageous. He has not slowed down, either. He's set for the biggest chance he will ever have to make big money. His production has justified this big money. Saying that he outplayed his past contract is beyond understatement. He was kinda robbed, ask me...regardless of the contract he signed.

Sticking with the Patriots should not trump his BUSINESS decision to FINALLY get the contract he deserves. He's got about 4-5 years left in him to perform at a high level at his position if he's lucky.

As somebody else said, some people may appreciate Wes Welker a lot more when he is gone. He moves the chains. It's easy for fans to take him for granted, sit back and expect him to always be there even though he made jack squat in New England, really. But he's not going to take much less than his market value, which is a lot more than some people think. This guy is the best slot receiver in the NFL, bar-none. He's almost redefined the position, actually.

 

[Ivan]

Perhaps you misunderstood me.

Past production indicates future production, right? Well there were guys getting paid THREE times as much as Wes Welker who put up inferior numbers as he did. How long did this go on? FIVE years. Again, FIVE YEARS! Then he was franchised, and players that are worth something do not like that, generally.

The bottom line is that he should not be low-balled again. The Pats had a top five receiver in production for five years (FIRST in receptions), and they paid him $3.62 million a year. That's kind of outrageous. He has not slowed down, either. He's set for the biggest chance he will ever have to make big money. His production has justified this big money. Saying that he outplayed his past contract is beyond understatement. He was kinda robbed, ask me...regardless of the contract he signed.

Sticking with the Patriots should not trump his BUSINESS decision to FINALLY get the contract he deserves. He's got about 4-5 years left in him to perform at a high level at his position if he's lucky.

As somebody else said, some people may appreciate Wes Welker a lot more when he is gone. He moves the chains. It's easy to for fans to take him for granted, sit back and expect him to always be there even though he made jack squat in New England, really. But he's not going to take much less than his market value, which is a lot more than some people think. This guy is the best slot receiver in the NFL, bar-none. He's almost redefined the position, actually.

Actually you misunderstood them. You see the people you are arguing with know that what really matters is height and 40 time, not actual play and production, and they know that 25 year old who sucks is really much better than a 31 year old who plays like a HOF player. They know that Hart Lee Dykes > Jerry Rice, and Chad Jackson > Wes Welker. They are true Maddenites.

 

[jnug]

Since when does the Patriots slot machine pay off to players "set for the biggest chance he will ever have to make big money". Since never that is when. The Pats just don't do that and I doubt they will for Welker either. I suspect they will franchise him or nothing.

If you don't think he is slowing you are just not watching. He still gets open in his little 15 yard world but his straight line speed has really deteriorated and even his quickness is in decline...result....he is getting hit much harder and much more often.

The shame of this for Wes is that players come here often taking and staying for less money on the chance to win a SB and that has not happened for Wes. That said, he had the SB on his own hands last year and something terribly similar to what happened on Sunday happened then as well.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I'd get rid of Lloyd before I get rid of Welker. At least WW can take a hit, and more importantly get substantial YAC.

Lloyd is an imbecile who collapses as soon as he catches the ball. He was also brought in to stretch the field, but I can count the number of deep catches he's made, on one hand.

900 yards receiving and 50 1st downs..should have cut him week before the ravens game

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

If the FO was capable of drafting WRs, I would say let him walk.