5 Key to Victory: Pats-Saints

[sleepingbunch]

I have a hard time not seeing the Pats scoring in the 30's, unless we really kill ourselves with penalties, turnovers and lack of red zone execution. We've averaged 38+ PPG in the NFL over the past 5 games (best in the NFL), and even 32 PPG if you take out the 59-0 Tennessee massacre. We put up 30+ PPG on two of the top scoring defenses in the NFL the past 2 weeks (Indy and the Jets). Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pats hang 40+ if they are in sync. My biggest concern is that they'll kill a lot of red zone opportunities and only end up with 24-27 points.

I could see the Pats defense holding the Saints to under 20 points IF everything fell right. The Jets held the Saints offense to 10 points (with 14 scored by the defense). NO is a notorious slow starter. Miami and Carolina both held NO to under 10 points in the first half. If the Pats get up early then it will be hard for the Saints to maintain offensive balance and diversity, and we will play a nickel or dime most of the time. I don't think Brees has faced a secondary like the Pats' this year, and I doubt he can pull a Manning and come back from 17+ points down, especially if Brady avoids letting the Saints' defense put up points the way they did against Miami and the Jets. I can see the Pats giving up one big play to the NO defense, but not several scores the way other teams have done.

If everything goes the Pats' way I could see a 41-17 game. That's not very likely. If everything goes the Saints' way I could see a 35-20 game. That's not very likely either.

We've been pretty good about not selling out on the run when we've been down early, and I expect us to be the same toward the pats. We have started slow lately, and that is cause for concern. From what I understand, you guys have let a lot of teams back into games after starting with an early lead. The Saints are built to come back from just about any deficit, and they are a confident enough bunch to believe they can do so. This is a battle of the #1 and #2 offenses, and both teams believe that they can score at will on anyone.

Also, I wouldn't use the Jets game as a good example of our offense being shut down - we scored some early defensive touchdowns and allowed our defense to win the game for us while playing more conservatively. At the time, the Jets were 3-0 (and had held you guys to 9 points) - they've kind of lost it since then.

If everything goes the Saints way, we're putting up 50. I agree, however, that's not very likely.....but we are completely built to do so. Should be a great game.

 

[ausbacker]

If everything goes the Saints way, we're putting up 50. I agree, however, that's not very likely.....but we are completely built to do so. Should be a great game.

I highly doubt the Saints will put up 50 on a Bill Belichick coached team. I doubt the Saints will even put up 40. I can't remember the last time this happened.. if ever.

Spare me the we're built to do this crap. Every offense is built to try and score points and every defense is built to try and stop scores.

 

[PatsSox363804]

I highly doubt the Saints will put up 50 on a Bill Belichick coached team. I doubt the Saints will even put up 40. I can't remember the last time this happened.. if ever.

Spare me the we're built to do this crap. Every offense is built to try and score points and every defense is built to try and stop scores.

We gave up 40 twice in 2005 and those are the only times since Brady has been QB.

 

[ausbacker]

We gave up 40 twice in 2005 and those are the only times since Brady has been QB.

I was referring to the 50 spot. Probably should have made that a little more clear

 

[PatsSox363804]

I was referring to the 50 spot. Probably should have made that a little more clear

Ah. yeah I don't even remember ever giving up 50 and that includes back through the Drew years and our god awful 89-92 seasons.

 

[mayoclinic]

I highly doubt the Saints will put up 50 on a Bill Belichick coached team. I doubt the Saints will even put up 40. I can't remember the last time this happened.. if ever.

Spare me the we're built to do this crap. Every offense is built to try and score points and every defense is built to try and stop scores.

As you say, the Pats D last gave up 40 points in the 2005 season - 41 points to San Diego in week 4, and 40 points to Indy in week 9. Since that time the Pats defense has gone 65 regular season games (the last 7 of 2005, full 16 game seasons in 2006, 2007 and 2008, and the first 10 games of 2009) without giving up 40 points. In fact, in those 65 games the Pats defense has given up 30 points or more only 6 times (0 in the last 7 games of 2005, 0 in 2006, 1 in 2007, 4 in 2008, and 1 in the first 10 games of 2009). And that included dealing with an aging LB corps in 2005-2008, no effective CBs in 2008, and a very young and new defense in 2009. In fact, those 2 games are the only times in the almost 10 years of the BB era that the Patriots defense has given up 40 or more points per game, much less 50. That's 2 times in 154 games.

In contrast, in those 65 games the Pats offense has scored 40 or more points 11 times (0 in 2005, 2 in 2006, 4 in 2007, 4 in 2008 and 1 in 2009), and 50 or more in 3 of those games (2 in 2007 and the 59-0 win over Tennessee earlier this year). And 2008 were without Tom Brady.

The Saints have a high powered offense, make no doubt about it. But high powered offenses are nothing new to the Pats - the team that won it's first Super Bowl by shutting down the Greatest Show on Turf, the team that has played the high powered Indy offense and Peyton Manning every year at least once every year in the BB era except for 2002. In 2006 the Chargers were the unstoppable team, and the Pats defense shut them down in the 2nd half of the divisional game. Unstoppable offenses are nothing new to Bill Belichick, who has been responsible for stopping more than possibly anyone in NFL history.

50 points? Hah.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's a take on keys to the game from Scout's Inc.:

NFL: New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints "Monday Night Football" preview - ESPN

Their keys:

1. The Patriots must keep the Saints guessing with their offensive formations. "New England is notorious for its ability to change up its offensive personnel with different groupings, which really puts pressure on defenses and their ability to substitute, especially when Tom Brady goes no-huddle or to a quick-snap scheme. ... This will be an interesting chess match between Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and Brady."

2. Can the Saints overcome their injury problems in the secondary? "Brady will look for good one-on-one matchups and we will see a lot of motion, bunch sets, empty backfield, no-huddle, and quick counts to get the Patriots into those matchups. The key here is how Williams plays it on the back end. With a middle-of-the-road pass rush (22 sacks), can they pressure Brady enough to force the ball out quickly and protect the corners?"

3. This game could come down to a play in the secondary. "Bill Belichick didn't trust his young defense early in the season, so he played a lot of vanilla schemes. But in the past month the unit has jelled and now we are seeing more blitzes and exotic coverages, and Belichick is not afraid to put them on an island. ... The Saints have injury concerns, especially at corner, and if Brady spreads the ball in four-receiver sets it may take the Saints deeper into their nickel and dime packages than they are capable of going. ... This game is all about matchups and these two QBs are the best in the business at finding and exploiting them."

4. Special teams is important for both teams. "As good as both of these quarterbacks are, giving them a short field to work with because of special teams could wind up being a big part of this game."

5.

 

[mayoclinic]

Sorry, hit the wrong button and omitted the 5th key from Scout's Inc:

5. New England ILB Jerod Mayo vs. New Orleans RBs Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush. "Mayo is a great young player and may be the Pats' best defensive player. He is an excellent inside run-stopper, is quick to step up and fill the hole and is a sure tackler. ... The Saints do a good job of spreading the field with their multi-receiver sets and they come back with a commitment to the run versus nickel and dime schemes (36 rushes against Tampa Bay on Sunday). Mayo must have an excellent run-stopping game and he must be ready in coverage if the Saints get him matched up against a back, especially Bush."

Interesting perspective.

 

[sleepingbunch]

Again. the 50-spot comment was prefaced by "if everything goes our way" - in reference to mayo's comment. I most probably don't see it happening.....I believe that this will be a very close one.

We've been masterful at taking advantage of turnovers this year. The Pats need to win the turnover battle and the special teams battle to win this one - both our offenses will put up a lot of points....I feel this game will come down to who can make those one or two big plays.

 

[yopats]

Great info!