Yes, they have a good chance. Belgium are a dangerous team though, still fifa ranked 9th in the world. The bookies have it pretty much as a coin flip.
Belgium had a really bad nations league in 2024 and lost 5 out of 6, but are unbeaten in 14 games since. None of those 14 games included a top 10 team, except for a draw against mexico in a friendly, but they did beat the US 5-2 in March this year in a friendly.
A few years ago they had an incredible team and were actually fifa ranked no.1 in the world for 4 years 2018-22. They came 3rd in 2018, but that golden age never came close to its potential in terms of tournament success (which shows the rankings don't always reflect the best team). Lots of that team has retired or are pretty old now. They also haven't really turned it on at WC26, but they still have some real quality.
To me the US should win against Belgium given the home advantage. Spain and France would be a different matter though.