Some stats on fourth quarter comebacks

[TB_Helmet]

Article from the Ringer today about which QBs have the most success when trying to come from behind in the fourth quarter:

Is Aaron Rodgers Really the Comeback King?

Take-homes:

1. Since 1994, Andrew Luck is the best QB to have if you want to come back in the fourth quarter (calculated by percentage of times he successfully came back).

2. Tom Brady is second, and if you look at his sample size of opportunities to come back, which is much higher than Luck (66 to 25), it's easy to conclude that he should actually be considered the best (the author says as much).

3. Good old Pink Head is #3. There aren't any filters for playoff opportunities though.

4. Tony Romo of all people is #4. This defies his 'choking' label which was almost solely a product of his botched hold in his first playoff game, and continued on only through confirmation bias, in my opinion.

5. Aaron Rodgers is 54th.

Rodgers's comeback Sunday night was the inspiration for the article; the author wanted to disprove the conventional wisdom that he is "The Comeback King," as he was termed by other media members that night.

Of course, we Patriots fans are familiar with most of this; I thought this was a good, recent article that compiles everything. It should also help alleviate some of the anxiety that people demonstrated in the Week 1 NFL Games thread when Rodgers played really well; it was hilarious how much people tried to diminish a 17 point fourth quarter comeback. It's fine to admit that he is a really good QB; doing so doesn't mean you're cheating on the GOAT. But if you need some hard ammo to knock him down, you can put his game against the Bears into context with the career numbers presented in that article.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Bill Simmons tweeted this article as expected (it's his website, after all). Packers fans replied that Rodgers has been historically victimized by his defenses giving back games that otherwise would have been 4th quarter comebacks.

I guess that's unique to Rodgers.

*cough* SB42 *cough*
*cough* SB52 *cough*

Regards,
Chris

 

[fightingirish595]

Aaron Rodgers is great, Ive seen him make plays I think only he could have made.

Still not on Brady's Level

 

[Chevy]

Brady/Brees/Rogers ... The differences in their total ability are minuscule. The deciding factor, IMHO, is while Brees and Rogers go to 10, Brady can go to 11. He is the 4th member of Spinal Tap.

The huge come-backs are the obvious examples. However, look at TB12's drive after the pick. Total focus, boom-boom-boom-score.

 

[Observer]

28-3

 

[patfanken]

Just a quick question. Do those stats include playoff games?

BTW- this is a great article. I WAS surprised that Manning was #3, and over the past few years, Luck's stats have been forgotten by most of us, but he was really, really good when he came into the league and got better in each of his first 3 years in carrying that Colt team to the AFCCG. But Rodgers' numbers were simply SHOCKINGLY bad.

It should be mandatory that we all memorize the stats here, so we have them available the next time some hater brings up the Rodgers/Brady comparison.

That being said, Rodgers still is the 2nd best QB in the league.

 

[bigballas]

well if we need to make a 4th quarter comeback this Sunday, Brady goes back to #1 %

 

[maineman209]

According to Pro-football-reference, for the period 2012-2017 (regular season only) ...

Luck: ...... 70 games ... 13 4QC ... 17 GWD
Rodgers: ... 80 games .... 8 4QC ... 11 GWD
Brady: ..... 92 games ... 13 4QC ... 14 GWD
Stafford: .. 96 games ... 21 4QC ... 26 GWD

 

[Angelpats]

How can this be? Rodgers is the best qb to have ever played. I just read another article, from the hundreds, that says he is the best value in the league. Only reason he ever loses is because of the defense or wrs can’t catch.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

The list of names ahead of (or better than in this category) Rogers is quite interesting

 

[TB_Helmet]

Just a quick question. Do those stats include playoff games?

BTW- this is a great article. I WAS surprised that Manning was #3, and over the past few years, Luck's stats have been forgotten by most of us, but he was really, really good when he came into the league and got better in each of his first 3 years in carrying that Colt team to the AFCCG. But Rodgers' numbers were simply SHOCKINGLY bad.

It should be mandatory that we all memorize the stats here, so we have them available the next time some hater brings up the Rodgers/Brady comparison.

That being said, Rodgers still is the 2nd best QB in the league.

Agree on all points Ken! The article doesn't say if this includes playoff games. My guess is no. Brady's total comebacks would obviously increase if we included those; not sure about comeback percentage though.

 

[1960Pats]

Article from the Ringer today about which QBs have the most success when trying to come from behind in the fourth quarter:

Is Aaron Rodgers Really the Comeback King?

Take-homes:

1. Since 1994, Andrew Luck is the best QB to have if you want to come back in the fourth quarter (calculated by percentage of times he successfully came back).

2. Tom Brady is second, and if you look at his sample size of opportunities to come back, which is much higher than Luck (66 to 25), it's easy to conclude that he should actually be considered the best (the author says as much).

3. Good old Pink Head is #3. There aren't any filters for playoff opportunities though.

4. Tony Romo of all people is #4. This defies his 'choking' label which was almost solely a product of his botched hold in his first playoff game, and continued on only through confirmation bias, in my opinion.

5. Aaron Rodgers is 54th.

Rodgers's comeback Sunday night was the inspiration for the article; the author wanted to disprove the conventional wisdom that he is "The Comeback King," as he was termed by other media members that night.

Of course, we Patriots fans are familiar with most of this; I thought this was a good, recent article that compiles everything. It should also help alleviate some of the anxiety that people demonstrated in the Week 1 NFL Games thread when Rodgers played really well; it was hilarious how much people tried to diminish a 17 point fourth quarter comeback. It's fine to admit that he is a really good QB; doing so doesn't mean you're cheating on the GOAT. But if you need some hard ammo to knock him down, you can put his game against the Bears into context with the career numbers presented in that article.

We learned a lot about Rodgers lack of 4th quarter comebacks from the Atlanta fans when we met the Falcons in the SB.

The 4th quarter comeback that Rodgers had last week was the 13th in his career, and of those 13 only 1 came against a winning team, and that was in the playoff game when Dez Bryant was called for a no catch.

Rodgers' latest comeback took him out of a tie with Ryan Tannehill.

 

[oldrover]