NFL Week 3 Early Lines: Patriots Favored by 3.5 over Houston Texans

[PatsFans.com Article]

NFL Week 3 Lines: Patriots Favored by 3.5 over Houston Texans

John Morgan

Last week the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released their NFL Week 3 early 'look ahead' advanced lines, and the New England Patriots have been installed as a 3½ point home favorites against the Houston Texans.

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[Huckleberry1]

I never understand how a line can be set before you know who was injured the previous week. I realize that they can do it I just don't see the sense in it.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I never understand how a line can be set before you know who was injured the previous week. I realize that they can do it I just don't see the sense in it.

Those are factored in.

Since injuries are fairly random, it operates on the assumption both teams be equal chances to sustain injuries. However, supposing the Patriots played first, the line would be taken offline until the Texans game is over as well. The line would also come down at kickoff of the Patriots game so someone couldn't instantly make a bet as soon as an injury happens.

The Patriots-Dolphins game had an interesting line today. There was about a 50-50 chance of Gronkowski playing. The line was at 6.5. Since we just learned Gronk is out, the line dropped to about 5 - 5.5. Had he played, it would have been adjusted upward to 7.5 - 8. So if you took the original bet of 6.5, you were also gambling on Gronk's availability. All offseason before the appeals ruling, most Vegas books had a similar built-in compromise for Brady's status.

Also, lines aren't hard to make. Vegas uses their power rating for each team and adjusts for homefield. Let's suppose, with all relevant players healthy, the Texans are +3 at New England and the Dolphins are +7 at New England. Meaning the Texans are 4 point better on a neutral field. Texans would be -7 at home against Miami and -1 on the road against Miami.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

...I realize that they can do it I just don't see the sense in it.

But you're talking a universe of people who bet on games v. the spread, which is designed in such a way that only a rare few come out ahead, and who (in many cases) also frequent casinos, where the odds are stacked in favor of the House. Your definition of "sense" is different than theirs.

 

[meatface]

That's definitely going to change after today's game

Sent from my KFSOWI using Tapatalk

 

[jmt57]

I never understand how a line can be set before you know who was injured the previous week. I realize that they can do it I just don't see the sense in it.

That's a valid point. But consider this hypothetical.

Suppose that you think a team is undervalued and/or another is overrated. If, hypothetically you think that Tampa Bay is much better than advertised and Arizona is overrated, and the Bucs will beat the Cardinals this week - and then come home and crush the Rams - taking Tampa Bay now at -3½ vs LA makes sense. If all of those scenarios play out and you wait until after Sunday's games to conclude, the odds in the Bucs-Rams game will likely sky rocket to 6½ or 7½ points.

If I am not mistaken most places do wait until after the games are over to post their odds; Westgate is one of the few that publish early lines a week ahead of time. On a side note if a person really wants to roll the dice, CG Technology posts odds on every game right after the schedule is announced. For example in next week's games a gambler could have had Houston plus eight points vs the Patriots or Tampa Bay at home minus one versus the Rams back in April.

A complete list of betting lines for the 2016 NFL season and how they were put together - 04-21-2016

Here are the spreads for almost every 2016 NFL game