Bedard jumps the Shark

Triumph · May 3, 2020

The 2021 6th isnt relevant because the Pats will receive at least a 6th back in compensatory picks.

Hyped · May 3, 2020

BelichickFan said:
It was awful. I don't need continually positive, Belichick can do no wrong crap but he has gone in the other direction. It was the worst article I've read in a long time.

Yeah, I think Bedard has an axe to grind....but I find his stuff useful. BTW, wasn't he kicked out of a BB press conference a few years back? My memory isn't what it used to be....

hornetfb85 · May 3, 2020

Bedard....

Triumph · May 3, 2020

Keenes skill set reads out like Hernandez's minus the thuggery.

sb1 · May 3, 2020

He was one of the first to jump on the “they cheated!” bandwagon when that Bengals video came out. So I think he jumped a while back...

Triumph · May 3, 2020

Kasmir · May 3, 2020

NashuaPats said:
Reporters suck at math.

No wonder they could not understand the ideal gas law never mind apply it to footballs.

Physics, too. I'm sure nearly 100% of the reporters who actually tried to apply the IGL forgot to add in atmospheric pressure.

resdubwhite · May 3, 2020

Stopped subscribing after Price left. Not feeling guilty about that decision.

Brick27 · May 3, 2020

As much as I’d like to pay for compelling articles on BSJ like ‘Bedard: Former Bengals teammate thinks Andy Dalton would be ‘good fit’ with the Patriots’, that’s a pass for me.

Laughable seeing him essentially make the claim that the 37th overall pick this year should be making an instant impact like a top 10 pick. Also him seemingly not understanding the notion of drafting towards the future, and not necessarily drafting for instant impact right out of the gate. Would think a guy covering this team for so long would grasp that.

There are posters on this board who I’d rather pay a few bucks a month for to get their deeper insight on all things Patriots. @BaconGrundleCandy and his draft insight is just one example.

STUB STUB · May 3, 2020

Kasmir said:
So Bedard might be saying Rich Hill's non-consensus chart doesn't like that trade. But trades were clearly being done between teams with the Jimmy Johnson consensus chart, so it represents "market value" and Rich Hill's doesn't -- which doesn't mean it's wrong, just that it wasn't used for trades

Even then, the math is completely wrong.

Using the Rich Hill table:
#125 = 20.67
#129 = 18.91
#101 = 35.26

And we can say a pick in next year's draft is generally discounted by a round, so let's give the 2021 6th the same value as a 2020 7th, which averages to 1.67 (ranges 1.12 - 2.23).

So the Pats lost 35.26 - (20.67 + 18.91 + 1.67) = ~6 pts. So we can say the "cost of the trade" is -6 pts.

So what would be the correct value for (20.67 + 18.91 + 1.67 = 41.25)? The 94th pick (41.15), not anywhere close to the 28th (209.11).

Using the same logic with the traditional JJ table, you get a "cost of the trade" of +3.4 pts, which means the Pats actually got the 101th pick for the price of the 102th pick.

Man, I gotta stop reading this board...

Deus Irae · May 3, 2020

Brick27 said:
Laughable seeing him essentially make the claim that the 37th overall pick this year should be making an instant impact like a top 10 pick. Also him seemingly not understanding the notion of drafting towards the future, and not necessarily drafting for instant impact right out of the gate. Would think a guy covering this team for so long would grasp that.

2019 32 32 N'Keal Harry WR Arizona State
2018 23 23 Isaiah Wynn G Georgia
2018 31 31 Sony Michel RB Georgia
2015 32 32 Malcom Brown DT Texas
2014 29 29 Dominique Easley DT Florida
2012 21 21 Chandler Jones DE Syracuse
2012 25 25 Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama
2011 17 17 Nate Solder T Colorado
2010 27 27 Devin McCourty DB Rutgers
2008 10 10 Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee
2007 24 24 Brandon Meriweather DB Miami (FL)
2006 21 21 Laurence Maroney RB Minnesota
2005 32 32 Logan Mankins G Fresno State
2004 21 21 Vince Wilfork DT Miami (FL)
2004 32 32 Ben Watson TE Georgia
2003 13 13 Ty Warren DT Texas A&M
2002 21 21 Dan Graham TE Colorado
2001 6 6 Richard Seymour DT Georgia

Do please explain. If you mean this

2020 5 37 Kyle Dugger DB Lenoir-Rhyne
2020 28 60 Josh Uche LB Michigan
2019 13 45 Joejuan Williams DB Vanderbilt
2018 24 56 Duke Dawson DB Florida
2016 29 60 Cyrus Jones DB Alabama
2015 32 64 Jordan Richards DB Stanford
2014 30 62 Jimmy Garoppolo QB Eastern Illinois
2013 20 52 Jamie Collins LB Southern Mississippi
2013 27 59 Aaron Dobson WR Marshall
2012 16 48 Tavon Wilson DB Illinois
2011 1 33 Ras-I Dowling DB Virginia
2011 24 56 Shane Vereen RB California
2010 10 42 Rob Gronkowski TE Arizona
2010 21 53 Jermaine Cunningham LB Florida
2010 30 62 Brandon Spikes LB Florida
2009 2 34 Patrick Chung DB Oregon
2009 8 40 Ron Brace DT Boston College
2009 9 41 Darius Butler DB Connecticut
2009 26 58 Sebastian Vollmer T Houston
2008 31 62 Terrence Wheatley DB Colorado
2006 4 36 Chad Jackson WR Florida
2004 31 63 Marquise Hill DE Louisiana State
2003 4 36 Eugene Wilson DB Illinois
2003 13 45 Bethel Johnson WR Texas A&M
2002 33 65 Deion Branch WR Louisville
2001 17 48 Matt Light T Purdue
2000 15 46 Adrian Klemm T Hawaii

history says that's a lot more about the pick than the theoretical role.

Vatahala · May 3, 2020

NashuaPats said:
Reporters suck at math.

To be fair to reporters most people have little personal experience in determining percentages of deflated air loss.

On the other hand the so called reporter should have an editor who job it is make sure the numbers are correct.

Brick27 · May 3, 2020

Deus Irae said:
2019 32 32 N'Keal Harry WR Arizona State
2018 23 23 Isaiah Wynn G Georgia
2018 31 31 Sony Michel RB Georgia
2015 32 32 Malcom Brown DT Texas
2014 29 29 Dominique Easley DT Florida
2012 21 21 Chandler Jones DE Syracuse
2012 25 25 Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama
2011 17 17 Nate Solder T Colorado
2010 27 27 Devin McCourty DB Rutgers
2008 10 10 Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee
2007 24 24 Brandon Meriweather DB Miami (FL)
2006 21 21 Laurence Maroney RB Minnesota
2005 32 32 Logan Mankins G Fresno State
2004 21 21 Vince Wilfork DT Miami (FL)
2004 32 32 Ben Watson TE Georgia
2003 13 13 Ty Warren DT Texas A&M
2002 21 21 Dan Graham TE Colorado
2001 6 6 Richard Seymour DT Georgia

Do please explain. If you mean this

2020 5 37 Kyle Dugger DB Lenoir-Rhyne
2020 28 60 Josh Uche LB Michigan
2019 13 45 Joejuan Williams DB Vanderbilt
2018 24 56 Duke Dawson DB Florida
2016 29 60 Cyrus Jones DB Alabama
2015 32 64 Jordan Richards DB Stanford
2014 30 62 Jimmy Garoppolo QB Eastern Illinois
2013 20 52 Jamie Collins LB Southern Mississippi
2013 27 59 Aaron Dobson WR Marshall
2012 16 48 Tavon Wilson DB Illinois
2011 1 33 Ras-I Dowling DB Virginia
2011 24 56 Shane Vereen RB California
2010 10 42 Rob Gronkowski TE Arizona
2010 21 53 Jermaine Cunningham LB Florida
2010 30 62 Brandon Spikes LB Florida
2009 2 34 Patrick Chung DB Oregon
2009 8 40 Ron Brace DT Boston College
2009 9 41 Darius Butler DB Connecticut
2009 26 58 Sebastian Vollmer T Houston
2008 31 62 Terrence Wheatley DB Colorado
2006 4 36 Chad Jackson WR Florida
2004 31 63 Marquise Hill DE Louisiana State
2003 4 36 Eugene Wilson DB Illinois
2003 13 45 Bethel Johnson WR Texas A&M
2002 33 65 Deion Branch WR Louisville
2001 17 48 Matt Light T Purdue
2000 15 46 Adrian Klemm T Hawaii

history says that's a lot more about the pick than the theoretical role.

Always want guys to contribute sooner than later of course, but it’s a case by case. Not every pick is the same, and not every trajectory is the same. The thing with Bedard’s take was that he suggested that Dugger should be an instant impact guy, and anything less is a fail when looking at the first pick of a team’s draft.

We don’t know how Dugger will do, and neither does Bedard. But whether he’s willing to believe it or not, a pick can still be a good pick if their year 2, 3, 4 etc is a win, even if the year 1 is minimal/considered a redshirt.

Kdo5 · May 3, 2020

borg said:
And people pay a fee to read his drivel?

Then I should get paid lots because I’m full of drivel

He is worth reading when he is talking X’s and O’s. The other stuff, not so much,

Deus Irae · May 3, 2020

Brick27 said:
Always want guys to contribute sooner than later of course, but it’s a case by case. Not every pick is the same, and not every trajectory is the same. The thing with Bedard’s take was that he suggested that Dugger should be an instant impact guy, and anything less is a fail when looking at the first pick of a team’s draft.

We don’t know how Dugger will do, and neither does Bedard. But whether he’s willing to believe it or not, a pick can still be a good pick if their year 2, 3, 4 etc is a win, even if the year 1 is minimal/considered a redshirt.

Every non-bust, non-injured first rounder ended up playing some form of a significant role as a rookie. The second round players who panned out to any real degree for the team*

Light
Branch
Wilson
Vollmer
Spikes
Gronk
Vereen
JAG
Collins

were also year one contributors, outside of the QB spot and Vereen, who spent time behind Woodhead, and took over the receiving back role once Danny moved on. Belichick expects his top picks to contribute right away.

*Chung's not on the list, because he didn't pan out until he'd gone and returned

sportnik · May 3, 2020

BelichickFan said:
Talking about overpaying in the Keene trade (which we did):

Somehow he's claiming two #4s + a future #6 = the 28th pick of the draft.

This is so messed up. It's like buying a $30K car, saying it cost $40K because of interest on the loan so the total cost was $70K.

WTF. That is how you tur two #4s and a future #6 into 1.28.

I enjoy reading Bedard, but I agree this was ridiculous. I can't figure out what he was thinking, but I'm pretty sure you can't get a first round pick for two fourths & a throw away future 6th....

Patriot Missile · May 3, 2020

He lost me. He used to be a good source for the schemes and formations. How long they played in each base, stunt counts etc,

Never been a fan of opinions because everyone seems to have one. Give me the facts and let me form my own opinion. Something I’ve tried to teach my kids in this craz8 media driven world we live in.

To be honest, I don’t like 80% of the worlds media at this point. Bedard falls in that group with his bs over the last couple of years. Wild off base opinions sell clicks nowadays.

JayNM · May 3, 2020

Bedard is not discounting the value of the pick in the trade, therefore he's double counting the value of the 3rd round pick and making it seem like it was a huge deal.

it's not that hard to see, mathematically, the problem

letekro · May 3, 2020

betterthanthealternative said:
I started to read the article this morning and quit after the first two paragraphs. It was clearly an attempt to get some more readership by jumping on the "Pats' draft sucked" bandwagon. It is the most disappointing article ever in BSJ as far as I'm concerned. They, and he, started out with much better stuff. This article is WEEI worthy.

The bad math is just the tip of the iceberg. And to do it so poorly; was he drunk?

Every purveyor of news/analysis will ultimately be forced to lowest common denominator sensationalism. It pays the bills. His initial article about the draft basically told the truth: pointless to evaluate a draft right after it happens. Nobody wants to read that.

FCB02062 · May 3, 2020

Bedard is so ****ing fat he can't jump...so OP is wrong...

Bedard jumps the Shark

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