Will we trade out of the first round?

Maybe

The bottom line is that it always comes down to their prospect evaluations. One thing we do know from past reports the Patriots draft board is much smaller than most other franchises, and their 1st round board isn’t 32 prospects. If a prospect they have a 1st round grade in is available later in the 1st then I can see them using one of their 3rds to make a move up to get them. If the prospects they have 1st round grades on are cleaned out then they will try to move back to where they can still get their next level prospect and not get hosed on the deal. And until the draft is actually underway we won’t have any idea of what they are thinking.

I expect them to continue using the trade strategy of trading down for players. As they did with Dwayne Allen. For example, give up a late third for a late fourth and get a player.

Team building is very complex. It is fun to watch how the Pats do it year after year. I love the Compensatory Pick system. The Pats have been gaming that better than most.

Draft-wise, I expect them to move up into the middle of Round 1 for a TE or an exceptional player if one falls.

Barring that, I think they'll move up in the second round to grab two or maybe three B+/A- players. If we can stay healthy, maybe we get three rookies that will actually make an impact this season. By the end of week four, we should have a pretty good idea what we have, and as long as we are 2 -2 or better, we should be in decent shape.

I’m not watching draft day. It’s anticlimactic mostly.

This is a great question, particularly this year. I have no idea of what they'll do. They'd have to really love someone to move up - Maybe jump the Packers for a TE.

But is there really that much of a potential drop-off from Hoch/Fant/Smith to Kaden Smith?

Every time I run the draft simulators (without trades) and get to 32, I see 2 or 3 players I'd love to see in the Pats' uniform who I know won't be there by the end of the 2nd round.

Yeah, that's a simulator, and yeah, I'm no scout.

I'm watching this year, though - I really have no idea of what they'll do.

Also, using various big boards, it looks like more of a crap shoot than ever - three guys I like (Renfrow, A. Nelson, Kaden Smith) are way down some and really high on others.