I know everyone is riding high right now with the way this off season has gone, but it is important NOT to lose track of the fact that the margin of victory is still very thin in the NFL, and it doesn't take much to derail a season. ESPECIALLY when if you don't win the Superbowl the season will be a failure. So just a one game slip up can doom a season.
The fact is that the Pats will rarely line up against a team this fall whose physical talent will not be at LEAST as good as their's. And as much as we'd like to think the Pat's system and coaching is THAT much better than anyone else's, we'd best remember that they are paying those other guys a LOT of money too. So while I believe BB and his staff are the best in the league, the gap isn't as big as we'd like to think. (as we saw in the first half of the superbowl)
1 Concerns - Yes Martha, there ARE concerns.
a. The defensive line. Its solid and deeper now since the draft, but the fact remains that if we are honest, if you rated the DL's in the AFCE, ours would be ranked #4 based on Talent.
For things to go well this year a lot of things have to happen.
Malcolm Brown needs to raise the level of his play. Brown has been a solid NFL starting DT who has flashed on occasion. For the Pats DL to be successful he needs to "flash" a lot more this season.
Alan Branch - He needs to maintain the high level of play he showed last season. That isn't easy for a guy who will be 33 before the playoffs.
Vincent Valentine - He needs to make a solid 2nd year jump, especially if there is a decline in Branch's play.
Ealy and Guy have to make an impact right away. Both guys have flashed, but also have been up and down. They have to come in here and play consistently well. We all HOPE they will. We has some reason to EXPECT they will. But we don't KNOW they will. That's the concern that won't be answered until October.
b. The interior of the OL - We were OK last season, but when the chips were down in the superbowl our running game vanished, and it wasn't just LBG's fault. There were no holes. I'd be OK with David Andrews at C, but I'd be happier with an upgrade. His physical limitations make him a liability in the run game, and an issue against certain DLmen in pass protection. More and more 4-3 teams are lining up a DT or LB right on Andrews to push the pocket.
I'm sure there is a back up C on the team, but it's pretty much anyone's guess who it is. (Karras is my guess). We added 2 OT projects to a fairly stacked OT group, yet, so far, have completely ignored the interior OL depth.
Now this is kind of like the S situation. Because one one got hurt, we could see how the back ups would fare. Maybe they are happy with the current situaton, so my "concern" may be unwarranted. I hope so, but I'd feel a lot better if we signed Mangold.
c. The schedule: Looking at this schedule I can't imagine how FO's declared that the Pats had the easiest schedule this season. NFL.com just came out with their post draft rankings, and while I know it doesn't mean anything, it is interesting to note that of the top 13 teams on the list the Pats play 7 of them including #2 (Falcons) #3 (Steelers), and #4 (Raiders). That doesn't sound like a cake walk to me. (btw- the Pats were ranked #1)
Not only that - There is the issue of that 6 game stretch where they play 5 road games. This is a schedule anomoly that almost NEVER happens. I think twice in the last 20 years. And IIRC I don't think either team won more than 3 games. Think about it, that is almost 2 straight months on the road.
OK so there really are only 3 concerns, and compared to questions most teams have, they don't amount to much. I mean the DL, at worst will be OK, but will it be as good as it was last season, which ended up being OK, but not dominant. What we get from Guy, Ealy and Flowers will tell. btw- Flowers is going to have to raise HIS game as well. Teams are going to start looking for him as he will start the season as the Pats only proven pass rush threat.
2. Changes:
a. Football is ever cyclical. Alot of the new things we see from offenses like Carolina's have be taken almost directly from Single wing concepts of the 30's and 40's.
b. One of the reasons I worry about the DL is that I think the pendulum is going to start swinging back to the running game. The fact so many RB's were drafted in the first 3 rounds is a testiment to that fact. Since finding a good QB is so damned hard, teams are starting to realize that a good run game can cover a lot of QB sins (see Dallas, Titans, and even Buffalo). Also the move to smaller faster defenses who play nickel as their base make it prudent and easier to run the ball more. We can see it in our own off season planning with the additions of Burkhead and Gillislee. So watch for that change this season.
3. Still having trouble wrapping my head around the fact that JG is still here. I believe that Cleveland DID offer the #12 plus more this year and next, but the Pats didn't budge. I'm OK with it, especially since I think we got a guy who can be the edge rusher I wanted with that #12 pick down the road.
But what I can't get my head around is the meaning that decision implies. They didn't turn down those draft assets simply because they wanted the best back up possible for 2017. I can only conclude that they have made the decision that JG is going to be the next QB for the NE Patriots.....period.
So it seems, there is a good probability that this will be Tom Brady's last season with the team. That is a hard concept to digest. Maybe I'm wrong, but that is most logical conclusion. I know the fashionable narrative is that they will franchise JG in 2018, but while possible, the number will just be so restrictive, that it makes no sense for the rest of the team.
I wonder what Brady is thinking? I can't imagine he doesn't see the implications of the lack of a move. I can't imagine that Brady, BB and Kraft, haven't had a disucssion about it. And I can't imagine that it won't be a huge story line by the mediots the entire 2017 season, filled with rampant speculation. Because, we KNOW the Pats and Brady are never going to directly address it.
I think this is my 10,000th post. That's a lot of crap I've written over the years. I hope some of it was at least interesting. And as usual, your comments and additions will make the thread better
