NFL GAME DAY DISCUSSION Week 12 Other Games: Ω Edition - MNF - Panthers @ 49ers

[sb1]

Sounds like they've given up on the division and it's only November.

Division is out at this point…have to do it as a wildcard

Depending on where the Bills finish they’ll have to win 2 games minimum on the road to advance to the Super Bowl. Seeing as Josh does not yet possess a road win in the playoffs, this seems apropos.

www.twobillsdrive.com

 

[Family]

Not close at all. A 10-7 record = A 85% chance of making the playoffs. This isn’t 2008 when the Pats were left on the outside with a 11-5 record. 7 teams make it per conference.

The Bills have six games remaining to do at worst .500 and they will have a 85% chance of making the playoffs. So,
Not run the table time until they pick
Up loss #6, IMO.

Some 10-7 team will likely make the playoffs, but it seems there could be too many 7 loss teams for all of them to be in.

There are 10 teams with 5 losses or less. Three of them have two losses and oddly none have three.

So 7 teams with 4/5 losses with six games left competing for 4 spots.

It would be unusual for three of those teams to reach 8 losses.

Tiebreakers will likely count.

 

[sb1]

HAHAHAHAHHA

Yeah there's one QB in the league that gets that bailout call and it's not Josh Allen.

 

[upstater1]

Right. But he’s now been a starter and has won some games. Could the Vikes bring him in to challenge McCarthy?

That's not quite the story though.

That came from Callahan in the Herald prior to the 2022 season and it said that Belichick was not all in on Jones and that he preferred talking Davis Mills in the 3rd or 4th round. Not as a franchise QB but as a placeholder. The same article said that Belichick had shown interest in signing Baker Mayfield during the previous FA period. As I remember the Callahan article, Mills was never projected as a franchise QB by Belichick.

 

[Toofy]

TBF, Nick Caley was with the Patriots as TE coach a couple years back, and was considered "up-and-coming" enough that Belichick blocked him from leaving. He left as soon as he was able, though.

Tbh, his play calling was rank bad. They were saved by their running back who had insane amount of yards after contact. A beats. I bet our RBs would have lost yards if they had that level of contact .

Nick caley needs to grow a pair and not be so hyper conservative. First 2 drives were always run. Play action was pretty decently successful. Depaite that he went for runs Everytime.

 

[Toofy]

Bills OL allowed 8 sacks. That seems like a lot.

The defense of Texans was other worldly.

Bills resembled pats of 2024 or 2023. No wr worth his salt , no separation and very ordinary oline. Their RT went down and that side was a total seive.

 

[patfanken]

Ken, I normally endorse most of what you have to offer, but PLEASE be tolerant of "in-the-moment assholery," childish as it may be. OF COURSE there still are many shoes yet to drop in this season and nothing can be taken for granted. But after more than two years of bad football and bad vibes around these parts, celebrating events as they unfold and letting off a little steam shouldn't be considered scold-worthy. We'll all be brought back down to earth soon enough.

I couldn't agree with you more. This has been a very tough 2 years (God are we spoiled But I guess I separate joy for my team, from disrespect to a worthy opponent.

I would get it if it had been a hated team like the Ravens or Colts, but the Bills have always been a blue collar team from a blue collar town like us. Isn't it enough anymore to beat your opponent, we have to humiliate them too? What a culture

 

[Family]

Nick caley needs to grow a pair and not be so hyper conservative. First 2 drives were always run. Play action was pretty decently successful. Depaite that he went for runs Everytime.

The situation dictates his approach as correct IMO.

They have one of the best defenses in the league, and for all the positives about Mills, I thought he played like a very good BACKUP QB.

Buffalo has a horrible defense.

 

[Thelonious]

The Bills are still a good team with a good-but-flawed, intermittently great qb, but (and?) they need a rebuild. They should start with a new head coach, one who will impose discipline on their quarterback. McDermott is an adequate HC, but he is not the man to run this rebuild. The default at this point when things go even a little awry is to allow Josh to run around hoping something good will happen. That'll make you about a .500 team which, whatever the exact number might be at any juncture, is pretty much what they are now.

FWIW, I don't think there's any question Drake is now the best qb at least in the AFC East. He is Josh Allen with better poise, sounder judgment, and an ability to keep his head screwed on straight when stuff gets weird. Even at this early stage, he's just a more nuanced sort of qb than Josh seems capable consistently of being.

I've had a soft spot for the Bills at least since the days of Marv Levy and Jim Kelly. I wish that during our down years the Bill's rather than the Chiefs had gotten their day in the sun, but that dark cloud over their head just never seems to go away.

Maybe they need Josh McDaniels as their new HC, but hopefully/thankfully that won't happen.

 

[Ross12]

Yeah there's one QB in the league that gets that bailout call and it's not Josh Allen.

The way the ref announced the penalty was just SO FUNNY, oh my god.... He was such a troll, I can't remember the last time I've seen that. "Pass interference......... OFFENSE!!!!!!!!" He took such glee in his dramatic pause before throwing his arm in the direction of the Bills and shouting it out. He was taking joy in just shoving the dagger in that little bit further.

 

[Nunchucks]

Mills was pretty bad in this game, his accuracy is questionable. Higgins needs to learn how to get both feet down. He had a TD taken away and a pass called incomplete due to poor body control.

This game could have been more lopsided with better qb play and slightly better play by the rookie receiver.

Bills offense is hurting, pedestrian wr, and a hurt TE is limiting Allen's options. If a defense stays disciplined, they can stop the backyard ball that Allen brings to the table.

 

[mayoclinic]

Well, aren't we smug little assholes laughing at the Bills and Josh Allen. Christ, some of us sound like 8 year olds.

The Bills had to play the best overall D and the best DL in the league without their 2 starting OTs and their OL wasn't that good to begin with. Also playing on the road on Thursday Night might be the most unfair advantage a road team faces all year. Add the 3 turnovers and the missed extra point, and it was amazing that at the end of the game they are on the Texans 15 with a first and 10, down 4. Think about that for a sec.

Well, the division is ours to lose, but all that means really is we are probably going to get ONE home playoff game. That's nice, I guess, but we need to get that BYE. We need the Colts and Denver to lose and lose more than once. I still can't believe there were people who rooted for the Broncos last week. We need to get our priorities straight. We have a great opportunity here.

BTW- after watching this game, think about this. Come April, we are on the clock in the first and there is a very exciting WR and a very promising edge rusher available, who do you pick.

The answer is Edge of course. A great 4 man pass rush can render the best of QB's merely human. We saw it tonight and in the last superbowl. We lucked out on Maye and have a QB who can elevate a receiver corps. Our #1 priority should be to improve our pass rush so it becomes a top 5 group. It won't be easy, since what I'm saying isn't exactly a state secret. But the effort needs to be made.

We've said this 1000x before.

(1) Take things one fame at a time, don't look ahead, take nothing for granted. Don't be smug, humble pie.

(2) Always build around the lines. A true franchise QB with a dominant OL and DL is unstoppable.

In both cases, stick to the formula, and don't get distracted.

 

[Ross12]

Mills was pretty bad in this game, his accuracy is questionable. Higgins needs to learn how to get both feet down. He had a TD taken away and a pass called incomplete due to poor body control.

This game could have been more lopsided with better qb play and slightly better play by the rookie receiver.

Bills offense is hurting, pedestrian wr, and a hurt TE is limiting Allen's options. If a defense stays disciplined, they can stop the backyard ball that Allen brings to the table.

CJ Stroud has regressed, but he is better than Mills. That team could make a little noise when he gets back, especially if they can hand some losses to teams like the Chiefs. Their upcoming schedule includes 2 games against the Colts, one against the Chiefs, and one against the Chargers. Playoff implications.

 

[Brotherblues]

The Bills are still a good team with a good-but-flawed, intermittently great qb, but (and?) they need a rebuild. They should start with a new head coach, one who will impose discipline on their quarterback. McDermott is an adequate HC, but he is not the man to run this rebuild. The default at this point when things go even a little awry is to allow Josh to run around hoping something good will happen. That'll make you about a .500 team which, whatever the exact number might be at any juncture, is pretty much what they are now.

FWIW, I don't think there's any question Drake is now the best qb at least in the AFC East. He is Josh Allen with better poise, sounder judgment, and an ability to keep his head screwed on straight when stuff gets weird. Even at this early stage, he's just a more nuanced sort of qb than Josh seems capable consistently of being.

I've had a soft spot for the Bills at least since the days of Marv Levy and Jim Kelly. I wish that during our down years the Bill's rather than the chiefs had gotten their day in the sun, but that dark cloud over their head just never seems to go away.

Maybe they need Josh McDaniels as their new HC, but hopefully/thankfully that won't happen.

What does McDermott even bring to the table? All their wins have been thanks to Allen and Cook. When Allen makes mistakes or simply fails to carry, they almost always lose.

When Brady had unBradylike outings, the Dynasty Pats would still win more often than not.

 

[mayoclinic]

Let’s say for fun… the Bills magically go 5-1 the rest of the way (unlikely) and their only loss is against the Eagles. The Bills finish 12-5.

The Patriots conversely go 3-3 the rest of the way (unlikely) and lose to the Bills, Ravens and Bengals. The Patriots finish 12-5.

The Patriots still win the division because they would have a better division record (5-1) than the Bills (4-2). So the Bills would need to go 5-1, beat NE head to head, and have the Pats inexplicably go 3-3 and also have one of those losses be against the Jets or Dolphins, or alternatively, go 5-1 while the Pats go 2-4.

If the Bills LOSE to the Steelers next week then they really become hopeless since they’ll be effectively 4 games behind NE with only 5 games remaining at that point.

They are also starting to dangle close to the range where they could fall out of the playoffs entirely if they lose a couple more games. After this weekend’s games, they’ll most likely be the 7 seed. But the 8 seed… will be the Texans, who own the head to head tiebreaker over them now.

Personally, I hate this kind of thinking.

When the 4-0 Bills were about to host the 2-2 Patriots, I remember reading some smug comments by Bills fans that if/when they won they would have a 3 game division lead after week 5, and would have effectively locked up the division in October.

We know how that turned out.

6 weeks later, with 6 games to go, we're the ones looking smug.

One game at a time. On to Cincinnati.

 

[Family]

What does McDermott even bring to the table?

Agreed.

McDermott would have been gone long ago if not for having one of the top 3 QB's in the game.

It's horrible that not only that they haven't made the Super Bowl, but the reason they never did is squarely on him.

 

[Rob0729]

I can watch this all day.

 

[Thelonious]

What does McDermott even bring to the table? All their wins have been thanks to Allen and Cook. When Allen makes mistakes or simply fails to carry, they almost always lose.

When Brady had unBradylike outings, the Dynasty Pats would still win more often than not.

He doesn't bring enough. I see him as a sort of custodial guy: not a shake-things-up rebuilder, which is what they need.

 

[Ross12]

Personally, I hate this kind of thinking.

When the 4-0 Bills were about to host the 2-2 Patriots, I remember reading some smug comments by Bills fans that if/when they won they would have a 3 game division lead after week 5, and would have effectively locked up the division in October.

We know how that turned out.

6 weeks later, with 6 games to go, we're the ones looking smug.

One game at a time. On to Cincinnati.

There's a massive difference between saying that in Week 5 and saying that in Week 15, in a league that plays 17 games.

 

[TommyD4207]

@GreenCow Your thoughts?