Ok, I have read people posting this stat on this board and also heard it on the radio today - In the last ten years, 37 QBs have been drafted in the first round and only seven went to the playoffs in their rookie season. Can we end this irrelevant stat quickly as it relates to Mac Jones? You need to look deeper at that information to see it really is an irrelevant stat.
In the last ten drafts (this past draft excluded), eight QBs were drafted with the first overall pick, five were drafted with the second overall pick, two were drafted with the third overall pick, and one was drafted fifth overall. That is 16 QBs drafted by a top five worst team from the year prior. The odds of any of those teams going to the playoffs even with a very good season veteran is relatively low. Ironically, two of the seven rookies who made it came from this group (Luck whose team tanked to get him and RGIII).
And there are just the complete bust QBs drafted in the first round like Josh Rosen, Paxton Lynch, Tim Tebow, Blaine Gabbart, Jake Locker, Johnny Manziel, EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, Christian Ponder, Marcus Mariotta, and Blake Bortles. These guys couldn't get the playoffs even as seasoned pros or got to the playoffs one year despite their limited talent. There is a chance that Mac Jones ends up in this category, but from what we have seen thus far it is highly unlikely.
And you still have the QBs who either were drafted by teams with the coach on the hotseat and one foot out the door or a first year head coach who is trying to rebuild a bad program. A lot of the QBs already mentioned fit into this category, but includes others like Daniel Jones (who is tetering on the bust category), Ryan Tannehill, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, etc.
And of course there is Jordan Love who is in his own category, but could end up in the bust category. He was drafted specifically for the future and had zero shot at starting because he was backing up Rodgers.
I actually cannot think of any of the first round draft picks that is in the same situation as Mac Jones. Jones is on a team with a great and established coaching staff. The Patriots had a down year last year, but now looks to have a great defense, o-line, and running game. The Patriots not only has the talent around him to make the Pats a playoff team, but also take pressure off him from carrying the team week after week like a Trevor Lawerence is likely going to have to.
Not saying that the Pats will make the playoffs this year, but past history of first round draft picks is a horrible way to predict if they will not.
