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Who is the team to beat in the NFC?


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I honestly don't see how the Eagles could potentially afford him. They might have 23M in space right now, but they are already 7M over the 2020 cap and only 7m under the cap for 2021.

There is really not much flexibility for them to do that without releasing other big price players.

I mean sure they could trade for one season of him but that would cost them a high round pick and even further limit any flexibility for the next 2-3 years.

Maybe send Jeffrey to the Texans for Clowney ? But then their offense takes a big step back in terms of diversity.
That's what they are talking about doing. I'm not sure why the Texans would need another WR though. They have a top ranked WR core.
 
Whoever wins the NFC championship game;)
 
NFC contenders, in no particular order:

Bears: great defense, but I don't trust their QB at all
Saints: tons of talent, but the question is: has Brees hit his "cliff"?
Eagles: loaded, but Wentz needs to stay healthy...can he?
Rams: defending NFC champs (but shouldn't have been, right NO?), but I see a step back from them
Vikings: should be solid
Seahawks: I think they'll be better than anticipated
Cowboys: like their roster, but don't love their QB

AFC contenders, in no particular order:

Chiefs: loaded and should be an absolute handful
Patriots: defending champs are loaded for another run
Chargers: always feels like they're picked by lots of people, but Rivers doesn't get it done in the playoffs
Steelers: I expect a bounce-back year from them
Jaguars: I think Foles is a major QB upgrade from last year; just a season removed from nearly winning the AFCCG
Texans: I think Watson can be a special QB

I hate the Steelers but are high on them this year and think they are a great value bet in Vegas. I think they are as good as KC when you consider KC’a defense is garbage and offense likely to regress. In the AFC, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Manning have won 16 of the last 17 conference titles. I’ll go 1. NE, 2. Pittsburgh, 3. KC.

NFC totally wide open. If the Panthers, Falcons, Packers, or possibly even Niners are in contention to win the conference, would anyone be that shocked? They aren’t even on your list, which just shows the parity in that conference.
 
In the AFC, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Manning have won 16 of the last 17 conference titles.
Steelers wouldn’t have made those two Super Bowls had they faced the Pats in ‘05 and ‘08.
 
I’ll go with Philly as the major threat. They almost beat the Saints last year.

Seahawks. They’re always a pain in that ***.

Falcons have talent, but Matt Ryan has Phillip Rivers loser disease. I have no idea where he got the ridiculous nickname “Matty Ice”.

Vikings have talent but Kirk Cousins is their QB.

Dallas. Good D, running game and decent passing game. They’ll be a tough out.

Packers. You’d think with Aaron Rodgers they’d be competitive, but they are already imploding.

49ers. They’ve gotten better but they have to actually make the playoffs to make a case for them. Jimmy G’s arm is looking fairly weak.
 
I honestly don't see how the Eagles could potentially afford him. They might have 23M in space right now, but they are already 7M over the 2020 cap and only 7m under the cap for 2021.

There is really not much flexibility for them to do that without releasing other big price players.

I mean sure they could trade for one season of him but that would cost them a high round pick and even further limit any flexibility for the next 2-3 years.

Maybe send Jeffrey to the Texans for Clowney ? But then their offense takes a big step back in terms of diversity.

you might be right, but supposedly he wants a trade to the eagles or seahawks...
 
Dallas. Good D, running game and decent passing game. They’ll be a tough out.

They're the chicken fried Chargers. No matter how good they look they should never be trusted in the postseason.

Jason Garrett is a profoundly fraudulent head coach. He's trying to cosplay as Jimmy Johnson, but without the Hall of Famers and with the modern salary cap, and the results are about what you'd expect.
 
What do you mean?

In the AFC, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Manning have won 16 of the last 17 conference titles.

would still be true.

The Steelers not beating the 2008 Patriots if they'd faced them, on the other hand, is almost certainly not the case.
 
would still be true.

The Steelers not beating the 2008 Patriots if they'd faced them, on the other hand, is almost certainly not the case.
I meant to add them facing Brady.
 
Don't know. Don't care. Let's just let it play out.
 
I hate the Steelers but are high on them this year and think they are a great value bet in Vegas. I think they are as good as KC when you consider KC’a defense is garbage and offense likely to regress. In the AFC, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Manning have won 16 of the last 17 conference titles. I’ll go 1. NE, 2. Pittsburgh, 3. KC.

NFC totally wide open. If the Panthers, Falcons, Packers, or possibly even Niners are in contention to win the conference, would anyone be that shocked? They aren’t even on your list, which just shows the parity in that conference.
I think KC's O can maintain around the same level. Running game wont suffer & Reid already has his "do it all" RB. If the D steps up at all they're a nightmare.
Slightly less bullish on Pitt but I do think they're being underrated. Brown leaving shouldn't hurt that much considering the talent they have & volume they throw at. Maybe I'm biased I fear KC more.

Been talking up Browns, Titans & 49ers for a few years now so Im definitely w you in not being surprised by San Fran.

Same feeling on Carolina. If healthy Carolina & Atl are just as good if not better on any given Sunday then NO. Carolina is a really unqiue team imo. They made it a point to build up that DL again & have succeeded on paper. Their F7 looks pretty fierce. On the other side of the ball they made it a point to get away from some of their "bigger" targets in exchange for smaller ones Samuel (duel threat in college), Moore & Caff. They could be fun.

Again I like Atl as well. If healthy they'll be right there contending for the div/playoffs.
 
My two cents:
  1. Eagles
  2. Bears
  3. Seahawks
  4. Panthers
  5. Rams
  6. Saints
  • Cowboys
  • Falcons
  • Vikings
  • Packers
  • 49ers
  • Bucs
  • Lions
  • Wash
  • Giants
  • Cardinals
 
Good conference but they are all beatable.
 
Seattle checks a lot of boxes and Pete seems to have rebuilt that secondary in record time.

My only concern is they are not very deep. After the 1’s the 2’s are not very good.
 
Not sure if Seattle did anything to fix their oline woes, but if they did - they are a threat. I think it's easy to forget how good Wilson is given that his oline has been awful for the past couple years. His weird-PFF metrics go off the charts exponentially with each half second he has in protection. He just hasn't had **** for the past few years.

For reference, a comparison to Brady -
2018: 21
2017: 35
2016: 15
2015: 38 - We all remember how frustrating this year was
2014: 21

Wilson -
2018: 51
2017: 43
2016: 41
2015: 45
2014: 42

Over the course of the season, his likelihood of getting sacked under pressure is average
(ref: Seahawks QB Russell Wilson doesn’t prevent sacks with his scrambling) - more on this at the end.

The same group (fieldgulls) did some pretty analytics in charting PPD for the 2018 Seahawks, in quarter season segments, in three catagories: drives with a sack, drives with a penalty, drives with neither. Results are somewhat obvious, in that drives with either a sack or penalty resulted in a lower PPD than drives without either (Except a random occurance in weeks 9-13 where drives with a penalty averaged out to a staggering 5.2 ppd - Kansas averaged 3.18 last year)

But looking at the data a bit closer shows that sacks absolutely destroyed the Seahawks, bringing their PPD down to 1.5 or lower (sometimes even 0.3). But with a penalty, it was sub 2.xx ppd, and without penalty or sack, it was around 3.8. By the end of the year, their overall PPD was 2.6.

To quote the article's quick wrap up, here's what I'm getting at:

"Seahawks went from 0.3 to 1.1 to 1.0 to 1.6 en route to an overall 1.0 points per drive when a sack occurred. Short of a turnover, it was the worst thing that could happen to a Seattle possession.

Gving up 51 of them, the eighth-most in the NFL, is a crucial part of understanding the offense’s failures. More plays that get the ball out quickly, more (gasp) running plays when the defense expects pass, and more decisiveness from RW would cut down on the drive-killers. And raise points scored, dramatically, more than maybe any other tweak.

Easier said than done, though. Pete Carroll enjoys explosives, which demand time in the pocket. You can’t really run that often on 3rd and long, or even 3rd and medium. Wilson magic is going to come attached with costly sacks. They’re inseparable."

So how much of this is due to Wilson's play? And the turnstile that is the Seahawks o-line? If it's more on their offensive line, then patching that up makes them dangerous as all hell. I, of course, do not watch Seahawks games that often, so I'm unaware as to how much of a fault it is Wilson's.


That was a stupidly long post I didn't anticipate making, but whatever. There it is.
 
Chiefs have improved greatly on defense. Them and Philly are the best all around teams by far. If the Pats had a prime Gronk, and a deep threat receiver, in addition to an elite pass rusher, I'd put them on this level too. Just too many question marks.

I think the Saints are pretenders. They have injury prone offensive lineman. And they don't have very good safeties.

That's just my unbiased opinion. The Pats still have a shot to make noise. But it's going to be extremely difficult.

NFL rankings:

1. Philly
2. Chiefs
3. Browns
4. Pats
5. Chargers
 
Not sure if Seattle did anything to fix their oline woes, but if they did - they are a threat. I think it's easy to forget how good Wilson is given that his oline has been awful for the past couple years. His weird-PFF metrics go off the charts exponentially with each half second he has in protection. He just hasn't had **** for the past few years.

For reference, a comparison to Brady -
2018: 21
2017: 35
2016: 15
2015: 38 - We all remember how frustrating this year was
2014: 21

Wilson -
2018: 51
2017: 43
2016: 41
2015: 45
2014: 42

Over the course of the season, his likelihood of getting sacked under pressure is average
(ref: Seahawks QB Russell Wilson doesn’t prevent sacks with his scrambling) - more on this at the end.

The same group (fieldgulls) did some pretty analytics in charting PPD for the 2018 Seahawks, in quarter season segments, in three catagories: drives with a sack, drives with a penalty, drives with neither. Results are somewhat obvious, in that drives with either a sack or penalty resulted in a lower PPD than drives without either (Except a random occurance in weeks 9-13 where drives with a penalty averaged out to a staggering 5.2 ppd - Kansas averaged 3.18 last year)

But looking at the data a bit closer shows that sacks absolutely destroyed the Seahawks, bringing their PPD down to 1.5 or lower (sometimes even 0.3). But with a penalty, it was sub 2.xx ppd, and without penalty or sack, it was around 3.8. By the end of the year, their overall PPD was 2.6.

To quote the article's quick wrap up, here's what I'm getting at:

"Seahawks went from 0.3 to 1.1 to 1.0 to 1.6 en route to an overall 1.0 points per drive when a sack occurred. Short of a turnover, it was the worst thing that could happen to a Seattle possession.

Gving up 51 of them, the eighth-most in the NFL, is a crucial part of understanding the offense’s failures. More plays that get the ball out quickly, more (gasp) running plays when the defense expects pass, and more decisiveness from RW would cut down on the drive-killers. And raise points scored, dramatically, more than maybe any other tweak.

Easier said than done, though. Pete Carroll enjoys explosives, which demand time in the pocket. You can’t really run that often on 3rd and long, or even 3rd and medium. Wilson magic is going to come attached with costly sacks. They’re inseparable."

So how much of this is due to Wilson's play? And the turnstile that is the Seahawks o-line? If it's more on their offensive line, then patching that up makes them dangerous as all hell. I, of course, do not watch Seahawks games that often, so I'm unaware as to how much of a fault it is Wilson's.


That was a stupidly long post I didn't anticipate making, but whatever. There it is.

Wilson is the problem. This is what I’ve been saying for years. He has a career passer rating of around 100 and the offense is usually closer to average than elite. The passer rating formula and most QB metrics don’t put blame on the QB for taking a sack, even though it is a largely negative play (much worse than an incompletion.)

Don’t you think it’s odd that Seattle has consistently “had a terrible offensive line” despite addressing this issue for years through the draft, free agency, and trades? Wilson struggles to get rid of the ball quickly and read defenses/change protections. Most of these problems are on him. It’s like Nate Solder and (soon to be) Trent Brown suddenly being “worse” because the quarterback.

Wilson isn’t a bad quarterback. He’s just wildly overrated. He’s a top 10-15 guy, which is exactly what the offensive PPG for Seattle indicates. There’s a reason that the Patriots, Saints, and former Broncos/Colts are constantly among the top scoring teams in the NFL, and it isn’t the offensive line. It’s the QB. Rodgers has the same story, though it isn’t as bad as Wilson.
 
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