WRs: Every team but one

[mgteich]

If I follow this argument correctly, you acknowledge that the patriots haven't used top draft choices for WR's. I presume that you also acknowledge that the patriots are not especially good at drafting talent at WR.

Why would you expect that THIS YEAR would be different, that all of a sudden a rookie WR would be so different that the patriots would choose a contributor, and would be successful in developing him.

???

IMO, the patriots have a strategy that has worked for them for a decade. Use few resources at the WR position. Use 6th and 7th round picks, taking a flyer. Bring 10 WR's into cap, mostly from free agency. And when the opportunity arises, trade for a WR.

I see no reason to believe that Belichick will choose to believe that his approach is wrong and that another approach will work better, especially with the resources used on WR coaches (do we have one?). If he is convinced that he can get his defensive linemen, TE's and a safety, perhaps Belichick will take a flyer on a WR, hoping that this year is the year that the patriots will draft and develop a WR.

BUT, sure we have 7 early round picks, and Belichick could take a flyer with one of them.

To answer the OP:

While rookie WRs making a big impact are rare, they are being more common in recent years. DJ Moore & Calvin Ridley both had productive rookie years at picks in the 20s. Juju Smith-Schuster & Michael Thomas had great rookie years as round 1-2 possession, refined WRs.

I would draft two WRs in the top 100. Most draftniks say it is the deepest draft class since 2014.

To the Pats can’t draft WRs crowd. While that is arguably true, they really don’t put in the draft capital either. Here are the WRs drafted by the team in the top 100 picks in the last decade:

2013: Aaron Dobson (59) - Small school H/W/S prospect that never topped 700 yards in a college season.

2010: Taylor Price (90) - Small school prospect that never topped 800 yards in a college season.

2009: Brandon Tate (83) - WR2 on his own team to Hakeem Nicks & tore his ACL his senior year. Never topped 1,000 yards & had 3 career TDs in college.


That level of investment is basically nonexistent & has to be 32/32 of all NFL teams. What do the Pats expect from the above? RD 4-7 picks are more or less lottery tickets. Ironically, they still cashed in on one lotto ticket with Edelman.

Invest. I’m not convinced a talented rookie WR with a refined skillset couldn’t mesh with Brady. Thompkins was a fringe NFL talent & they managed to form a connection before it went south due to a lack of ability. Malcolm Mitchell without a doubt did & helped win a SB. If AJ Brown is available in the 20s, go get him & you have your version of Michael Thomas/Juju. Deus’ guy Isabella in RD3 could make an early impact as well IMO (as well as a handful of other players in this class).

 

[RobertWeathers]

I meant believing Ivan

Ivan Fears. Not our boards Ivan

 

[mgteich]

As an aside, it isn't the cap that is keeping the patriots from using considerable resources on a WR. We don't know Dorsett's cap hit, but a WR could likely be had for a hit of $3M, I suspect that Dorsett's hit is about that, although it could be a bit lower plus incentives.

Bonus - $8M/4 years
2019 salary - $1M
2019 cap - $3M
===========
depending on the player, there could be easy to reach incentives that aren't included
2020 could include a roster or option bonus
2020 and future salaries could be anything without affecting the 209 cap hit
there could be future guarantees without affecting the 2019 cap

 

[zoostation]

OBJ would be just very good business, nothing silly about that really (except maybe himself). Not my type of guy but he wouldn't make the offense worse and it wouldn't hurt much the team building in my view.. The investment would likely have same or better return at the end. Im sure BB was curious and wouldn't mind at all and Tom wouldn't mind so why would I.

You do realize OBJ now makes $19 million a year .....right?

Gronk and Jules make 10 million less than that a year.

How is signing OBJ good business?

 

[patsinthesnow]

If I follow this argument correctly, you acknowledge that the patriots haven't used top draft choices for WR's. I presume that you also acknowledge that the patriots are not especially good at drafting talent at WR.

Why would you expect that THIS YEAR would be different, that all of a sudden a rookie WR would be so different that the patriots would choose a contributor, and would be successful in developing him.

???

IMO, the patriots have a strategy that has worked for them for a decade. Use few resources at the WR position. Use 6th and 7th round picks, taking a flyer. Bring 10 WR's into cap, mostly from free agency. And when the opportunity arises, trade for a WR.

I see no reason to believe that Belichick will choose to believe that his approach is wrong and that another approach will work better, especially with the resources used on WR coaches (do we have one?). If he is convinced that he can get his defensive linemen, TE's and a safety, perhaps Belichick will take a flyer on a WR, hoping that this year is the year that the patriots will draft and develop a WR.

BUT, sure we have 7 early round picks, and Belichick could take a flyer with one of them.

I would expect THIS YEAR to be different because it’s a loaded WR class & they have next to no other choice. Are you actually arguing not to draft any WRs in the top 100? What is your plan at WR in 2019 & beyond?

As said before FA, the market for mid-level WR2s is basically 10 million per year. The market for low end WR2/WR3 is 6-8 million a year. The Pats recognize the Welker to Edelman decade+ run is approaching the end & tried to sign a slot WR for big money. Most trades will be on year bandaids as if they succeed they will make big money the following year. Longterm economic solution at WR will come in the draft.

Also, there hasn’t really been a need to use high draft capital at WR when Gronk & Welker/Edelman have powered top 5 offenses for nearly a decade. That duo likely has a year left. The strategy you are stating the team follows has been predicated on having two elite pass catchers in their prime on the roster.

It’s an entirely separate argument that BB’s strategy at WR has worked. 2013, 2015 & 2018 beg to differ (Yes, a SB ring was won on the backs of the greatest defensive performance maybe ever).

 

[patchick]

IMO, the patriots have a strategy that has worked for them for a decade. Use few resources at the WR position. Use 6th and 7th round picks, taking a flyer. Bring 10 WR's into cap, mostly from free agency. And when the opportunity arises, trade for a WR.

I'm not so sure this really has been their strategy more recently. They spent a 1st-round pick on Cooks. They tried hard to outbid Tennessee for Humphries. They've reportedly made inquiries about trades for high-priced WRs. It seems to me that they've been trying just about everything at the position...except draft picks so far, which was what prompted this thread.

 

[Wingy]

I think everyone except the fantasy geeks will agree this offense does not need an elite outside the hashes WR to be successful. BB has proven he is accepting of that kind of player in this offense as long as it makes good financial sense and/or the player produces at a high level.

What I believe is this offense runs at it's most optimal efficiency when Tom and Josh have multiple, legitimate threats on the field at the same time.

They don't have to be rock stars, just respected by the defense.

We're in agreement. Was just annoyed how the OP wrote a good post, and then everyone for the first 5-6 pages or more responded to the phantom fantasy geeks, and not the question put forth by the OP. We need more productive contributors, not the next Randy Moss.

 

[long distance]

You do realize OBJ now makes $19 million a year .....right?

Gronk and Jules make 10 million less than that a year.

How is signing OBJ good business?

First rule of mature locker room - don't look in other people's pocket.

OBJ is arguably one of the very few transcending receivers . if and when he focuses on the field. Sure, he is a severe case of puer aeternus but that is another discussion. This organization & locker room can take care of that.

So business: top WR in the league is signed for 5 years and has following cap hits:
2019: 17M
2020: 14.2M
2021: 15.7M
2022: 15M
2023: 15M

Only this year's salary remains guaranteed - 16.7M
You can lower his 2019 cap hit to 4-5M with simple restructure.

This contract is one of the biggest bargains in the league at the moment. (look at what mediocre WRs are getting this year or last). Browns made one of the biggest steals i can remember if he stays healthy and focused on the field.

You can trade him away after one or two years and my guess is the return would be greater than what he costed now (Cooks f.e.). He will still be in his prime and with Brady-to-OBJ season possibly significantly greater return.
____


btw - i believe Jules is getting a nice bump . id guess around August

 

[mgteich]

We rented Cooks for a year. We traded a 1st and got it back. That was an opportunity that Belichick couldn't pass up.

Are you really saying that the patriots are willing to spend lots of resources, and that there are no trade partners in the entire league that will trade, and no free agents that will sign with us?

I'm not so sure this really has been their strategy more recently. They spent a 1st-round pick on Cooks. They tried hard to outbid Tennessee for Humphries. They've reportedly made inquiries about trades for high-priced WRs. It seems to me that they've been trying just about everything at the position...except draft picks so far, which was what prompted this thread.

 

[long distance]

Are you actually arguing not to draft any WRs in the top 100? What is your plan at WR in 2019 & beyond?

This Draft is about DL, OL, possibly TE at the top. Id be glad if they dont take WR before late 3rd depending how the board falls. Plenty of similar level WR prospects late in the draft and nothing special at the top..

I hope they take elite, safe high picks on both sides of the trenches and later double dip in this unclear WR crop..

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'm not so sure this really has been their strategy more recently. They spent a 1st-round pick on Cooks. They tried hard to outbid Tennessee for Humphries. They've reportedly made inquiries about trades for high-priced WRs. It seems to me that they've been trying just about everything at the position...except draft picks so far, which was what prompted this thread.

Keep in mind Cooks was $8m and young. Humphries would have been $10m AAV and he would have been a 80-100 catch WR AND a PR here.

So you are right. They are trying everything to acquire a WR on their terms with means they need to be young or a proven vet and not breaking the bank and overspending.

 

[mgteich]

Apparently, "not overspending" means securing starting WR's at lower than market prices.
The patriots only want players that are willing to sign to play for the patriots for less.

Keep in mind Cooks was $8m and young. Humphries would have been $10m AAV and he would have been a 80-100 catch WR AND a PR here.

So you are right. They are trying everything to acquire a WR on their terms with means they need to be young or a proven vet and not breaking the bank and overspending.

 

[RobertWeathers]

We're in agreement. Was just annoyed how the OP wrote a good post, and then everyone for the first 5-6 pages or more responded to the phantom fantasy geeks, and not the question put forth by the OP. We need more productive contributors, not the next Randy Moss.

Yep. Thats what I did because as I said to the OP thats what I saw on this board...Get AB...Get ABJ...etc. Drove me nuts.

 

[long distance]

They are trying everything to acquire a WR on their terms with means they need to be young or a proven vet and not breaking the bank and overspending.

We dont know that yet..

(I can still remember the shock on this board when BB went for Gilmore at top money while having Butler in line.. and plenty of he will not spend big money mantra going around beforehand.. Again: nobody here (or anywhere outside front office) knows what breaking the bank or overspending for them really is.. )

 

[RobertWeathers]

Apparently, "not overspending" means securing starting WR's at lower than market prices.
The patriots only want players that are willing to sign to play for the patriots for less.

Yep. Its abundantly clear they do not put the same financial -translated to wins value on WRs as the rest of the league does.

Just a different philosophy

 

[patchick]

Keep in mind Cooks was $8m and young. Humphries would have been $10m AAV and he would have been a 80-100 catch WR AND a PR here.

Right. Which kind of looks like they're treating WR like every other position.

When have the Pats shelled out over $10 million/year for an outside FA at any position on the field? Stephon Gilmore and....? If Humphries would have been the 2nd most expensive Pats outside FA ever, that's hardly a sign that they refuse to devote resources to WRs.

 

[RobertWeathers]

We dont know that yet..

(I can still remember the shock on this board when BB went for Gilmore at top money while having Butler in line.. and plenty of he will not spend big money mantra going around beforehand.. Again: nobody here (or anywhere outside front office) knows what breaking the bank or overspending for them really is.. )

I think this is where there is confusion.

BB has proven he will pay top-of-the-market-at-their-position for players who have a huge impact on winning and are highly productive and talented.

The list is long.

Brady
Gilmore
DMc
Mayo
Seymour
Warren
Wilfork
Law (2001-2004)
Hightower
Mankins
Shaq
Solder
Light
Cannon
AD
Colvin
Moss (2008 contract was still in top 5 but he was 31)

 

[RobertWeathers]

Right. Which kind of looks like they're treating WR like every other position.

When have the Pats shelled out over $10 million/year for an outside FA at any position on the field? Stephon Gilmore and....? If Humphries would have been the 2nd most expensive Pats outside FA ever, that's hardly a sign that they refuse to devote resources to WRs.

See my post above this one.

They will most certainly pay. Just needs to be the right time, right market, right price and right player.

 

[zoostation]

Yep. Its abundantly clear they do not put the same financial -translated to wins value on WRs as the rest of the league does.

Just a different philosophy

Yep, and this philosophy has worked out pretty well. I guess if you need to put fans in the seats, they could lose their depth across the entire roster, and decrease the pay of the D-line, O-line, ST, LB's. Then sign OBJ to a $20 million deal and take your chances on injuries and the power of loyalty to those who have sacrificed their body's for 8 + years or so (Gronk/JE).

 

[WaterfallJumper]

First rule of mature locker room - don't look in other people's pocket.

OBJ is arguably one of the very few transcending receivers . if and when he focuses on the field. Sure, he is a severe case of puer aeternus but that is another discussion. This organization & locker room can take care of that.

So business: top WR in the league is signed for 5 years and has following cap hits:
2019: 17M
2020: 14.2M
2021: 15.7M
2022: 15M
2023: 15M

Only this year's salary remains guaranteed - 16.7M
You can lower his 2019 cap hit to 4-5M with simple restructure.

This contract is one of the biggest bargains in the league at the moment. (look at what mediocre WRs are getting this year or last). Browns made one of the biggest steals i can remember if he stays healthy and focused on the field.

You can trade him away after one or two years and my guess is the return would be greater than what he costed now (Cooks f.e.). He will still be in his prime and with Brady-to-OBJ season possibly significantly greater return.
____


btw - i believe Jules is getting a nice bump . id guess around August

I tend to agree, but I mostly just wanted to give you props for a great use of puer aeternus.