Coin Toss: Kick or receive? (AFC Championship Game)

[gitgronked82]

I’m a fan of these strategies that go “kick and force a 3 and out” or “receive and score right away”

In my opinion, if we run the “force a 3 and out” play all game, we have a good chance in this one

 

[VrabelJr]

Our strong run game has given BB a lot of confidence that receiving the kickoff is a good idea. It's unlikely we go 3 and out.

 

[Froob]

Always kick. Quiet the crowd early, also sucks to be down at half and kicking.

 

[Dragda]

Defer on the road in noisy stadiums

 

[SVN]

I also think Andy reid might start the game or the half with an onside kick. He has done this stuff before .

 

[Kontradiction]

Always kick. Quiet the crowd early, also sucks to be down at half and kicking.

I think if they win the toss, they might either kick or receive. Just my opinion. Conversely, if the Chiefs win the toss, they're likely to either kick or receive. Let me know what you think.

 

[Kontradiction]

I also think Andy reid might start the game or the half with an onside kick. He has done this stuff before .

With the new rules, onside kicks are nearly impossible to pull off. I highly doubt he goes that route if the Pats win and they elect to receive.

 

[Calhoun44]

Defer. It always is quieter at the start of the 3rd quarter, not everyone is back from their halftime bathroom trip, etc..

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I'd like to defer. I think we can slow them down and get the ball back, and the offense has been playing very well. Could put this game away if we double up after halftime. Pretty decent look at how we played them last time:

2019 AFC Championship Game: Offensive keys to victory for the Patriots against the Chiefs

 

[patfanken]

If this were at home I'd receive. But on the road, in the cold, in a very loud and hostile environment, I think it would be hard to execute smoothly in those conditions right off the bat. The defense is in a better position to come out ready to rock. Also I think it is a real advantage to get the ball to start the 2nd half because by then when the offense opens the half they have a good idea of what the defensive game plan is and have made the adjustments to it.

I can see the case for not doing it that way. But you can't go into the game assuming KC is going to score every time they have the ball. Each team is going to get the ball at least 10 times during the game. Why not KO.

 

[Redman443]

Take the ball, no question. Can’t give it to Mahomes

 

[Snooky97]

There’s strong cases for each one.

Take the ball to quiet the crowd down and put the pressure on Mahomes.

Kick and get a Stop or turnover then score from that.

I just want us to hit Mahomes as much as we can. I want us to brutalise him.

 

[Froob]

I think if they win the toss, they might either kick or receive. Just my opinion. Conversely, if the Chiefs win the toss, they're likely to either kick or receive. Let me know what you think.

It’s definitely a real possibility.

 

[Kontradiction]

It’s definitely a real possibility.

This is the kind of hard-hitting analysis that this forum needs IMO.

 

[n1997y]

Receive and test the run. Get as many 3/4yd gains, using as many downs you can per set. Drain the clock as much as possible, have an 7 minute opening drive. Let the cold settle in the bones of KC's offense.

Keep it out of the hands of Mahomes, and you keep it out of the hands of his weapons.

Football.

^THIS^

Let the wunderkind sit and chill and watch the master at work, while TB and his gang eat clock with another long grinding drive. Just like the start of the Chargers game. But colder. Much colder on the bench.

And keep Gilmore on task, when they finally let Mahomes have the ball. Play complementary football, as well as we know they can, and seize total control of the game. Start by letting the GOAT do his thing.

 

[n1997y]

Differ. If we take the ball and go three and out that crowd will be out of control. And then if the Chiefs subsequently score and we have to now play from behind look out.

That’s playing scared. If you expect to go three and out why bother to even show up? And by your logic how is it better to kick, have the Chiefs score and then go three and out after they already have the lead?

 

[gitgronked82]

Take the ball, no question. Can’t give it to Mahomes

I fear that at some point in the game, Mahomes is going to get the ball. Oh man, we’re screwed if that happens

 

[Redman443]

I fear that at some point in the game, Mahomes is going to get the ball. Oh man, we’re screwed if that happens

Preferably if we’re leading

 

[gitgronked82]

Preferably if we’re leading

Yep, that would be nice.

We’d still be giving him the ball to start the 2nd half (maybe they’re leading then), and I would think the first drive would be relatively difficult for us to score and take a lead on. The crowd will be bonkers right after kickoff

 

[Redman443]

Yep, that would be nice.

We’d still be giving him the ball to start the 2nd half (maybe they’re leading then), and I would think the first drive would be relatively difficult for us to score and take a lead on. The crowd will be bonkers right after kickoff

I thought bill liked taking the ball at kickoff because the fans weren’t in their seats yet