My Blueprint for the Defense

[fester]

Bill didn't expect Halapio to fall to 179? How clueless is this guy in the draft room now?
Halapio was lucky to be drafted at all. Kraft really, really needs to place another strong voice
in the draft room, for his "brand's" & "product's" sake.

If you know so much about the draft, what team's draft are you running?

 

[Ivan]

Bill didn't expect Halapio to fall to 179? How clueless is this guy in the draft room now?
Halapio was lucky to be drafted at all. Kraft really, really needs to place another strong voice
in the draft room, for his "brand's" & "product's" sake.

lmao-Did you really just say that? You are so clueless it is beyond belief. Belichick picks at the end of every round every year but still puts one of the best teams in the league on the field every year. No team in football can match his record since coming to the Patriots, and what you propose is absolutely no different than firing Belichick because the deal the Patriots have with him is that he runs the show and makes the football decision. If the Kraft's tried to forcer someone on him to call the shots on players he would quit and have another job running another team in under 3 seconds. You really don't know wtf you are talking about and you make draftniks look like idiots with your constant bleatings about what they should and should not have done. The idea that Belichick is doing a bad job is so idiotic that it is absurd.

 

[Ivan]

Kraft really, really needs to place another strong voice
in the draft room, for his "brand's" & "product's" sake.

Yes, being known as the best franchise in football and one of the best sports franchises in the world has done tremendous damage to the Patriots and the Kraft's. Belichick has seriously devalued what was once a very valuable franchise.

 

[Ivan]

If you know so much about the draft, what team's draft are you running?

I am sure he has dozens of fantasy teams that thrive under his awesome GM skills. And there really is no difference between running a fantasy team and running a real football team, just ask him i am sure he will confirm that.

 

[Ivan]

What can I say? I obviously agree (see post #1042 above). That was by far my biggest disappointment with this draft. Add in Antone Exum and Lonnie Ballentine as big DBs who could play a LB/S role, and that makes 6 day 3 guys who the Pats could easily have gotten: KPL at 130, Tripp or T. Smith at 140, Exum at 179, and Ballentine or C. Jones at 244 (or even Jones as a high priority UDFA signing). It was very perplexing to me, especially given that BB showed interest in LBs with coverage ability in FA (Woodyard, reportedly Dakoda Watson) and prior to the draft, and given the flurry of darts thrown at (mostly) low-probability guys in the past 10 days. I thought we could (should) have addressed a major need with quality prospects for very low cost. The LB/S hybrid, along with DE, is my biggest defensive priority for 2015 at this point.

I had LB and TE as my priorities going into the draft but I think what it came down to was they they didn't like the value of the TE's in terms of where they going in this draft and they saw an opportunity to get starting OL in the 4th and 5th rounds whereas they would be getting back-up LB's and TE's there. Ultimately like every other draft it will come down to how the picks pan out, and if they got themselves a major impact player with Easely and good starters with the OL as well as depth at RB and DB then it will end up being a really good draft. If they missed and Easely blows another knee out and the OL can't beat out the incumbents then they will have squandered it when they really needed a good draft.

I think the major disconnect between Belichick and those of who follow the draft closely is that what he is engaged in is team building and what we are looking at is drafting talent. They have so many more considerations to take into account when making picks than we do, as they are looking at their internal cap structure as it relates to the different units and where they are going to need players because of future free agency and contract concerns that they look at it holistically and longer term whereas we look at it generally as filling immediate needs. I am not referring to you mayo as i do think that you and some others take more than just immediate need into account but overall the approach to the draft is almost entirely need driven. i know I'm guilty of it and looked at their biggest needs going into this draft and was focused on who best could fill them, as such i wasn't a big fan of this draft over draft weekend but it has grown on me as i like most of the players they picked and I am really interested to see what they do for them over the next couple of years. I also think they may have hit on a couple of players with their UDFA choices and look forward to seeing what gallon and Finch can do in particular.

 

[mayoclinic]

I had LB and TE as my priorities going into the draft but I think what it came down to was they they didn't like the value of the TE's in terms of where they going in this draft and they saw an opportunity to get starting OL in the 4th and 5th rounds whereas they would be getting back-up LB's and TE's there. Ultimately like every other draft it will come down to how the picks pan out, and if they got themselves a major impact player with Easely and good starters with the OL as well as depth at RB and DB then it will end up being a really good draft. If they missed and Easely blows another knee out and the OL can't beat out the incumbents then they will have squandered it when they really needed a good draft.

I didn't see the TE value in this draft - that was one place that I consistently differed from many on this board - so I was glad to see the Pats not reach. I was thrilled with the Easley pick and loved the emphasis on OL, so I have no real qualms with the way the team chose to go, I just wished they had found room to squeeze one LB/S guy in. James White was the pick that stood out for me - he may end up being well worth the #130 pick, and I hope he will be, but I thought they could have gotten someone like KPL or Telvin Smith or Tripp and then gotten an RB later, or even traded back from 130 for extra picks.

I think the major disconnect between Belichick and those of who follow the draft closely is that what he is engaged in is team building and what we are looking at is drafting talent. They have so many more considerations to take into account when making picks than we do, as they are looking at their internal cap structure as it relates to the different units and where they are going to need players because of future free agency and contract concerns that they look at it holistically and longer term whereas we look at it generally as filling immediate needs. I am not referring to you mayo as i do think that you and some others take more than just immediate need into account but overall the approach to the draft is almost entirely need driven. i know I'm guilty of it and looked at their biggest needs going into this draft and was focused on who best could fill them, as such i wasn't a big fan of this draft over draft weekend but it has grown on me as i like most of the players they picked and I am really interested to see what they do for them over the next couple of years. I also think they may have hit on a couple of players with their UDFA choices and look forward to seeing what gallon and Finch can do in particular.

Thank you for your kind words. I agree with this, and it's also something I argued for prior to the draft. People tend to be very "need" focused on the short term, whereas I see the draft as more part of a long term team building process. Reaching to fill short term needs seldom works well. Obviously, none of us has the perspective of BB and the FO.

 

[Ivan]

I didn't see the TE value in this draft - that was one place that I consistently differed from many on this board - so I was glad to see the Pats not reach. I was thrilled with the Easley pick and loved the emphasis on OL, so I have no real qualms with the way the team chose to go, I just wished they had found room to squeeze one LB/S guy in. James White was the pick that stood out for me - he may end up being well worth the #130 pick, and I hope he will be, but I thought they could have gotten someone like KPL or Telvin Smith or Tripp and then gotten an RB later, or even traded back from 130 for extra picks.



Thank you for your kind words. I agree with this, and it's also something I argued for prior to the draft. People tend to be very "need" focused on the short term, whereas I see the draft as more part of a long term team building process. Reaching to fill short term needs seldom works well. Obviously, none of us has the perspective of BB and the FO.

I agree, I would have loved to see them take a LB there but they have done a good job using mid round picks to get really good RB's (Ridley and vereen) and both are up next offseason so if White pans out as they did they have the depth to be able to deal with losing one of them.

 

[mayoclinic]

From posts 932 and 933 above, regarding creative blitz and stunt packages that could be part of a more disruptive, attacking hybrid multi-front defense:

It was that play and the A gap cross blitz the Steelers use (the right ILB goes through the left A gap and the left ILB goes through the right A gap). Both blitzes work most of the time.

The Ravens use a play like it too, Ngata crashes down the line and takes out the Guard & Tackle and that leaves a huge lane for Suggs to get through untouched to the QB.

A 5 man front leaves for some interesting options on stunts too because with a DE lining up outside of the OT it means naturally his first movement would be to kick out and stop the end going round the outside so if the DT crashes down to the tackle and the end loops round, if it isn't picked up the OG could be left stranded.

That's a nice one:

Steelers play breakdown: Building on the blitz package from 2012 - Behind the Steel Curtain
http://strongfootballcoach.com/defensive-football/****-lebeaus-mike-will-cross-fire-zone-blitz/

That seems to be the Steve Spagnulo influence, with a lot of zone blitzing concepts:

Takeaways from the NFL Thanksgiving triple bill: Lions, Ravens, Cowboys prevail - HITC Sport
Breaking down the Baltimore Ravens pressure schemes - HITC Sport

There's no end to the amount a creative and aggressive DC can do with an overloaded front, enough horses, and a talented secondary on the back end to buy a little time and mitigate the damage. I'm not yet 100% convinced that BB will open up the throttle completely, or that Matt Patricia has the creativity of Spags or LeBeau, but indications last year (at least prior to the injuries) were that BB was one gapping more than previously and starting to get creative. Hopefully we'll see more of that this year.

Bucky Brooks had a nice read this week on the possible resurgence of the Steeler's defense given some of the new talent added to the team:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000353115/article/pittsburgh-steelers-revamped-defense-equipped-to-wreak-havoc

While I think calling Mike Mitchell the "new Troy Polamalu" is a bit optimistic (to put it mildly; and I think that the Steeler's secondary will be the weakest part of their defense), it's a nice read which highlights some of the creative things that can be done with more speed and athleticism on the defense. There's a couple of nice examples of the double A gap blitz and cross blitz. Food for thought regarding what the Pats might be able to do this season.

With Wilfork (hopefully) crashing the middle, Easley lining up on different gaps and creating disruption, and Ninkovich and Jones coming off the edges, there's tremendous potential to get creative with Collins, Mayo and Hightower stunting and blitzing behind them. This should easily be the most disruptive front 7 the Pats have had since the SB years.

 

[mayoclinic]

NFL.com's Chris Wesseling lists 10 veterans who could possibly be trade material during the pre-season (including Ryan Mallett):

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000353281/article/ten-summertime-trade-candidates

A number of guys have appeal (including Dion Jordan, though there's no chance of Miami trading him to the Pats, and Arizona TE Rob Housler), but one in particular stood out to me:

7. Derrick Morgan, DE, Titans: A prototypical 4-3 defensive end, Morgan is stuck in no man's land in Ray Horton's 3-4 defense. The 2010 first-round pick is penciled in at outside linebacker, a position he's never played before. The Titans have gone on to sign Shaun Phillips and restructure Kamerion Wimbley's contract, leaving Morgan's status up in the air. Much like Graham, he could be a bargain acquisition for a team with a 4-3 scheme. He went to college in Atlanta, and the Falcons just happen to need a pass rusher.

Potential landing spots: Falcons, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Patriots, Bengals

Morgan is 6'3" 271# and is only 25. He's in the last 2 years of his rookie deal, with cap hits of $3.5M this year and $3M in 2015. He was a binky of many people on this board in 2010 (including Patchick, IIRC). If the price were right, he'd make a solid addition to the DE position, creating a quality rotation with Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. Morgan isn't flashy, but he's a very solid 4-3 DE who can play on either side of the line and who is strong against the run. FWIW, Morgan has ranked in the top 10 of PFF's 4-3 DE rankings for each of the past 2 years (one of 5 guys to do so, along with Michael Bennett, Cameron Wake, Greg Hardy and Carlos Dunlap). His game compares reasonably with Bennett's. A rotation of Jones, Ninkovich, Morgan, Will Smith and Michael Buchanan would be extremely deep and strong (with Zach Moore hopefully getting a case of "Foxboro flue" to give him a year to develop), and would also allow Ninkovich to get more reps at LB as well as DE, effectively adding depth at 2 positions.

The following was a very nice read on Michael Bennett and the importance of creating "rotation, rotation, rotation" on the DL:

http://www.fieldgulls.com/seahawks-notes/2014/3/11/5493016/michael-bennett-seahawks-contract-5-reasons

I don't know if Morgan will be available and what the price will be, but if he does become available I think he could be a VERY interesting option, and a cost-effective way of solidifying the DL for years to come.

 

[everlong]

Count me in the pro-Morgan camp for the right price. I think a 3rd could get it done, maybe a 4th.

 

[mayoclinic]

Count me in the pro-Morgan camp for the right price. I think a 3rd could get it done, maybe a 4th.

I'd jump all over Morgan at that kind of price. He'd be under contract for 2 more years, and would be only 27 when his rookie deal expires; Rob Ninkovich would be 32 at that point and on the last year of his deal.

It all depends on Tennessee's plans, but if they are really trying Morgan at 3-4 OLB that is a big misfit, IMO. Morgan has stiff hips and can't play in space, but he has a great motor and is very strong, and is a nice relentless 4-3 DE in the Patrick Kearney kind of mold. He's a guy with some versatility to play inside or out on the line - a poor man's Greg Hardy (without the issues), Justin Tuck or Michael Bennett, but not that far behind those guys. I think he'd be a good fit on the DL.

 

[patsfaninpa]

We should get a 3 for losing Talib. Yeah, sign me up too. Most de's take a year or two to develop. They're not usually strong enough to have enough technique to beat decent OT's. He should be able to plug in and play.

 

[EwanSellars]

anyway to improve our depth at DE would be solid and Morgan seems like a really solid idea even though I havent really watched anything on him Brandon Graham would also be a good option for a 4-3 DE

 

[ripatsfan91]

Chandler Jones, Nink, Buchannan, and Morgan/Graham would be a very good rotation.

 

[captain stone]

It wouldn't surprise me to see not only free agent activity on June 1st (led by the Pats I hope),
but also some trade activity as well.

 

[everlong]

We should get a 3 for losing Talib. Yeah, sign me up too. Most de's take a year or two to develop. They're not usually strong enough to have enough technique to beat decent OT's. He should be able to plug in and play.

I could be wrong but if memory serves acquisitions offset losses. So adding Revis and Browner make it unlikely that the Pats will get much in comp picks.

 

[mayoclinic]

I could be wrong but if memory serves acquisitions offset losses. So adding Revis and Browner make it unlikely that the Pats will get much in comp picks.

Revis was signed after being cut by Tampa Bay, so he doesn't count in the comp pick formula. Neither do Will Smith or Pat Chung, both of whom were cut as well. Some teams, notably the Ravens, make a point of targeting UFAs who were cut and don't affect their comp pick calculus, resulting in more comp picks and a greater number of overall draft picks, believing that increases the chances of hitting on prospects:

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/05/01/2014-nfl-draft-baltimore-ravens-compensatory-picks/

The Pats lost 5 UFAs: Aqib Talib (major $$$ signing), Brandon Spikes, LeGarrette Blount, Dane Fletcher and Matthew Mulligan. They signed only Brandon Browner, Brandon LaFell and Josh Hull (LS Charlie Hughlett was signed but released, and shouldn't count). I'm guessing a 3rd for Talib is pretty likely given past comp pick history.

 

[mayoclinic]

Oliver Thomas of NEPatriotsDraft looks at DB Jemea Thomas:

http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2014...-in-georgia-tech-do-it-all-jemea-thomas.html

Included in Thomas' analysis is a discussion of Thomas' potential to play a "star" kind of LB/S role, despite his 5'9" 192# size:

Defeating the pass protection of offensive tackles isn’t traditional for a safety under 5’10″, yet neither is Thomas. He functions bigger than his size. That isn’t only seen in the way he runs outside the gaps in pursuit of his target; it’s seen in the way he runs through them. He warrants consideration as a hybrid third linebacker in nickel personnel as a result.

Whether he’s filtering in as a “Star” replacing the strong-side linebacker, or simply dropping down as a strong safety in a single-high look, Thomas can add another dimension to the defensive personnel. It’s because he plays the part better than he looks it. He diagnoses and runs low in the direction of ball-carriers. And he also makes it count when he gets there.

Now, Thomas may not be what New England had in mind when cover linebackers went in bunches during the middle rounds of the draft. However, there’s something to be said for the work ethic he embodies in doing his job and then some. He may never be an every-down defender at the next level, but his effort and aggressiveness keep him from being ruled him out.

I'm a bit skeptical, but it would be nice if Thomas can indeed accomplish some of this at the next level. I think it's more likely that he replaces Kyle Arrington in 2015, when Arrington's contract makes it easier (though still not easy) to move on.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

I'd jump all over Morgan at that kind of price. He'd be under contract for 2 more years, and would be only 27 when his rookie deal expires; Rob Ninkovich would be 32 at that point and on the last year of his deal.

It all depends on Tennessee's plans, but if they are really trying Morgan at 3-4 OLB that is a big misfit, IMO. Morgan has stiff hips and can't play in space, but he has a great motor and is very strong, and is a nice relentless 4-3 DE in the Patrick Kearney kind of mold. He's a guy with some versatility to play inside or out on the line - a poor man's Greg Hardy (without the issues), Justin Tuck or Michael Bennett, but not that far behind those guys. I think he'd be a good fit on the DL.

I understand that this is all speculation on nfl.com's part and not any actual rumor at this point. But I do find it funny that you've been using Ray Horton's Tennessee introductory press conference about how being multiple is the future in NFL defenses, and yet they're speculating that Morgan will be let go because he doesn't fit Horton's 3-4. I'm guessing that either nfl.com doesn't understand what the Titans are trying to do, or Horton isn't putting his money where his mouth is on that speech, or the Titans just don't think Morgan's a good player period.

Revis was signed after being cut by Tampa Bay, so he doesn't count in the comp pick formula. Neither do Will Smith or Pat Chung, both of whom were cut as well. Some teams, notably the Ravens, make a point of targeting UFAs who were cut and don't affect their comp pick calculus, resulting in more comp picks and a greater number of overall draft picks, believing that increases the chances of hitting on prospects:

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/05/01/2014-nfl-draft-baltimore-ravens-compensatory-picks/

The Pats lost 5 UFAs: Aqib Talib (major $$$ signing), Brandon Spikes, LeGarrette Blount, Dane Fletcher and Matthew Mulligan. They signed only Brandon Browner, Brandon LaFell and Josh Hull (LS Charlie Hughlett was signed but released, and shouldn't count). I'm guessing a 3rd for Talib is pretty likely given past comp pick history.

Minor technical point - Hull was also released by the Redskins, so he won't count in the formula. Mulligan signed a veteran's minimum deal so that will be below the threshold to count for compensation. Therefore I'm expecting a 3rd (Talib) and a 7th (for Fletcher), with Browner canceling out Spikes and LaFell canceling out Blount.

 

[mayoclinic]

I understand that this is all speculation on nfl.com's part and not any actual rumor at this point. But I do find it funny that you've been using Ray Horton's Tennessee introductory press conference about how being multiple is the future in NFL defenses, and yet they're speculating that Morgan will be let go because he doesn't fit Horton's 3-4. I'm guessing that either nfl.com doesn't understand what the Titans are trying to do, or Horton isn't putting his money where his mouth is on that speech, or the Titans just don't think Morgan's a good player period.

That's a great point, and one I haven't failed to note. I'm skeptical about Morgan being available given his productivity, and all I've said is something to the effect of "IF he is available for a less than exorbitant price, the Pats would do well to pursue it". Personally, I think it's a long shot, but a situation worth monitoring. While I don't think that Morgan makes a good 3-4 OLB neither does Chandler Jones, and I think he fits fine in a multi-front hybrid defense.

FWIW, the following read was a bit more sobering:

http://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/nfl/titans/2014/02/18/tennessee-titans-hope-derrick-morgan-can-learn-from-college-coach/5567885/

I just threw this idea out as an intriguing idea since NFL.com raised it, and mentioned the Pats as a possible landing spot. I think that in a month - after OTAs and minicamp - the Titans will have a better feel for how Morgan fits in Horton's defensive scheme, and in their long term plans.