Why don't the Patriots go deep?

[JoeSixPat]

Nope. He has 26 20+ yard completions on the season. At least 13 have come since Moss left.

I only see a total of 7 completions of 20 yards or more for the season - though there have been 20 attempts.

Tom Brady Splits - New England Patriots - ESPN

I think you're counting the YAC as part of Brady's overall passing yards - which don't really relate as "deep passes" strategically the same way as a 30 yard bomb would. You can't throw a 1 yard pass to Welker, have him run it back 40 yards and say "we have strong deep game". (Though truth be told that's a helluva more efficient and safe way to run an offense than slinging it 40 yards, and defenses ARE mindful of Welker's ability to break a long run.)

I'll have to go back and look to see how many attempts/completions took place before Moss but I doubt there's enough games to draw a full conclusion regardless.

The natural lack of completion percentage, as well as the high INT risk is part of why it's going to be utilized less often than a 3-10 yard pass - the question is are you running deep plays ENOUGH to keep defenses honest?

I think these Pats could do just enough, but you wouldn't generally want to go into a season with this big a question mark as a deep threat. Even if the numbers aren't promising since Moss' exit, I still think the jury is still out.

 

[RayClay]

So, we want to improve our highlight films, is that it?

 

[37Harrison]

I wonder if Bethel Johnson is available... he was always great at stretching the field and making acrobatic, ridiculous catches.





At least once or twice per season.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Every other team I can think of gets deep bombs, we always see them on the highlights, just never from the patriots. I've noticed it the past several games without moss, and now I think its hurting the team.

Seems like the stats are backing you up.

The question is, not so much about highlight reels, but if averaging 1 deep completion a game (21+ yards) is enough to effectively keep defenses "honest".

Normally I'd say "no" but with Welker, Tate and Woodhead as guys who can get big time YAC, that can help keep safeties back more too... I'm just not sure if even that's enough

Perception doesn't meet reality. Brady is 7th among QBs in pass completions 20 yards or more this season. He has more than Manning and Brees.

It's actually the exact opposite

Brady has 7 completions and 20 pass attempts over 20 yards (that is, he threw the ball deep... as opposed to a dink and dunk to Welker and watch him run it 20 yards...)

Tom Brady Splits - New England Patriots - ESPN

That low compared to Manning and Brees.

Brees has 10 completions and 26 attempts Drew Brees Splits - New Orleans Saints - ESPN

Manning has 12 completions and 30 attempts. Peyton Manning Splits - Indianapolis Colts - ESPN

So that's basically 33% fewer attempts than Manning, right?

Now, you say, well that's because Moss is gone, right? Wrong.

Moss didn't account for any of the 7 catches over 20 yards. In fact Moss only has 1 pass thrown over 20 yards caught this season and that was his 37 yard TD with the Vikings. Randy Moss Splits - Tennessee Titans - ESPN

Now that's not to say Moss still doesn't command some respect deep - but the fact is, through the first few games, Brady and Moss were not connecting deep. Period. Not one of the few deep balls thrown by Brady were caught by Moss.

The question of "why" is what's hanging in the air.

 

[RyanP421]

Nope. He has 26 20+ yard completions on the season. At least 13 have come since Moss left.

Those include Yards After don't they? It doesn't count if you check down and Woodhead runs for 20 yds...

I think the point is that Brady doesn't throw the ball that far anymore. He doesn't attempt those passes where the ball travels 20 yds in the air...

Or does he? I might be wrong. Would be nice for someone to shed some light here?

 

[redsx8827]

Ok, Moss is gone. big woop. Everyone else in the league goes deep once in a while against the patriots. The bills goes deep, the steelers go deep, heck even KC goes deep. Don't give me this, "Oh theyre a dink and dunk offense" eff that, you have one of the best QBs in the league, why not use his arm? Why don't they go for the endzone when they are on the 30 and driving? Nope, just dink to woodhead, and dunk to welker.

Every other team I can think of gets deep bombs, we always see them on the highlights, just never from the patriots. I've noticed it the past several games without moss, and now I think its hurting the team.

Its a joke and the patriots have now become the most boring team in football. Don't give me "but this is what they did from 01-04. Cause its not.

Why don' they just give it a try once in a while, if it gets picked, it gets picked. Same thing as what they are doing when they punt and probably a better outcome too.

They're relying on schemes way too much. How bout this scheme, let it fly. Remember when pats used to go 5 wide all the time. Why don't they try that? The run doesn't work. Lets face it. If the pats D doesnt force TOs they will lose. Simple as that. The offense is not good enough. And we saw that on Sunday. If the Pats won that game on sunday, I would be having the same rant as I am having now.

Ok thats my rant and now I want to opinions

Anyone else feel this way?

The first thing i thought of when I read that is the 2001 game vs the Colts in Indy when Patten caught a 70 yard bomb, ran a 50yrd reverse for a TD and threw a 70 yard bomb to troy brown....So yeah, you're right

 

[IcyPatriot]

go Deep ... biggest mistake was letting Billy Yates go.

 

[redsx8827]

Seems like the stats are backing you up.

The question is, not so much about highlight reels, but if averaging 1 deep completion a game (21+ yards) is enough to effectively keep defenses "honest".

Normally I'd say "no" but with Welker, Tate and Woodhead as guys who can get big time YAC, that can help keep safeties back more too... I'm just not sure if even that's enough



It's actually the exact opposite

Brady has 7 completions and 20 pass attempts over 20 yards (that is, he threw the ball deep... as opposed to a dink and dunk to Welker and watch him run it 20 yards...)

Tom Brady Splits - New England Patriots - ESPN

That low compared to Manning and Brees.

Brees has 10 completions and 26 attempts Drew Brees Splits - New Orleans Saints - ESPN

Manning has 12 completions and 30 attempts. Peyton Manning Splits - Indianapolis Colts - ESPN

So that's basically 33% fewer attempts than Manning, right?

Now, you say, well that's because Moss is gone, right? Wrong.

Moss didn't account for any of the 7 catches over 20 yards. In fact Moss only has 1 pass thrown over 20 yards caught this season and that was his 37 yard TD with the Vikings. Randy Moss Splits - Tennessee Titans - ESPN

Now that's not to say Moss still doesn't command some respect deep - but the fact is, through the first few games, Brady and Moss were not connecting deep. Period. Not one of the few deep balls thrown by Brady were caught by Moss.

The question of "why" is what's hanging in the air.

Maybe i'm missing something, but how is that statement true? Moss had the 35 yard TD catch vs the jets, the ball was in the air for about 45 yards on that pass.

And I think the original point is that we don't try to throw it deep anymore...not even try. And of those 20 attempts by brady, how many were when Moss was here? I know he had at least 3 or 4 deep attempts to moss in that jets game alone

 

[jmt57]

Brady has 7 completions and 20 pass attempts over 20 yards

So the reason the Patriots are not 7-1 or 8-0 is because they need to do to run more plays that gain zero yards 65% of the time?

 

[pherein]

Seems like the stats are backing you up.

The question is, not so much about highlight reels, but if averaging 1 deep completion a game (21+ yards) is enough to effectively keep defenses "honest".

Normally I'd say "no" but with Welker, Tate and Woodhead as guys who can get big time YAC, that can help keep safeties back more too... I'm just not sure if even that's enough



It's actually the exact opposite

Brady has 7 completions and 20 pass attempts over 20 yards (that is, he threw the ball deep... as opposed to a dink and dunk to Welker and watch him run it 20 yards...)

Tom Brady Splits - New England Patriots - ESPN

That low compared to Manning and Brees.

Brees has 10 completions and 26 attempts Drew Brees Splits - New Orleans Saints - ESPN

Manning has 12 completions and 30 attempts. Peyton Manning Splits - Indianapolis Colts - ESPN

So that's basically 33% fewer attempts than Manning, right?

Now, you say, well that's because Moss is gone, right? Wrong.

Moss didn't account for any of the 7 catches over 20 yards. In fact Moss only has 1 pass thrown over 20 yards caught this season and that was his 37 yard TD with the Vikings. Randy Moss Splits - Tennessee Titans - ESPN

Now that's not to say Moss still doesn't command some respect deep - but the fact is, through the first few games, Brady and Moss were not connecting deep. Period. Not one of the few deep balls thrown by Brady were caught by Moss.

The question of "why" is what's hanging in the air.

Brees also had 12 int and 6 fumbles trying to force the long ball. Which cost the Saints 2 games. Just saying

 

[JoeSixPat]

Brees also had 12 int and 6 fumbles trying to force the long ball. Which cost the Saints 2 games. Just saying

Absolutely - which is part of the reason why I stop short of questioning a more conservative approach. Yet even so recent trends with Brady going deep are interesting. A year like 2007, even with Moss at his disposal is the exception rather than the rule.

Something else worth considering is Brady and Moss' stats in passes thrown over 20 yards in the past several years (I think I brought this up in one of the many "I can't believe we traded Moss" threads)

You might think Brady's numbers are low but half way through the season we're not that far off last year's pace for deep balls caught... but we are down signficantly over last year's deep attempts. Tom Brady Splits - New England Patriots - ESPN

Lepfrogging 2008 for now, if you look at the high powered offense of 2007 you've got a VERY different picture.

Brady projects this season at 14 completions this year of 20 yards or more... in 2007 he finished with 28. Brady projects to end this seaon with 40 balls thrown deep this season. In 2007 he finished with 69 attempts.

So maybe there's a trend here... maybe it has something to do with Brady... maybe it has something to do with the personnel other than Brady or a different approach to playcalling.

One thing's for sure - 2007 stands out. Right now the production deep is looking similar to Matt Cassel's 2008 season - yet at least that season you'd think it was a purposefully conservative gameplan given Cassel's "rookie" status.

All of this data is worth pondering - yet at the end of the day I know that Brady can be so deadly and precise with his mid and short game, and that such an approach can just slice up NFL defenses when done well.

 

[SVN]

throwing the ball up there for the highlight reel and with the thought that if its intercepted then let it be intercepted is a good idea ???

 

[pherein]

throwing the ball up there for the highlight reel and with the thought that if its intercepted then let it be intercepted is a good idea ???

I think our QB, has put in the time effort to prove this is not a proven method, therefore Brees should win MVP for most interceptions and proving the deep ball is a bad theory. Or may be the Nobel prize. Just a thought.

 

[JustEndTheSeason]

Ok, Moss is gone. big woop. Everyone else in the league goes deep once in a while against the patriots. The bills goes deep, the steelers go deep, heck even KC goes deep. Don't give me this, "Oh theyre a dink and dunk offense" eff that, you have one of the best QBs in the league, why not use his arm? Why don't they go for the endzone when they are on the 30 and driving? Nope, just dink to woodhead, and dunk to welker.

Every other team I can think of gets deep bombs, we always see them on the highlights, just never from the patriots. I've noticed it the past several games without moss, and now I think its hurting the team.

Its a joke and the patriots have now become the most boring team in football. Don't give me "but this is what they did from 01-04. Cause its not.

Why don' they just give it a try once in a while, if it gets picked, it gets picked. Same thing as what they are doing when they punt and probably a better outcome too.

They're relying on schemes way too much. How bout this scheme, let it fly. Remember when pats used to go 5 wide all the time. Why don't they try that? The run doesn't work. Lets face it. If the pats D doesnt force TOs they will lose. Simple as that. The offense is not good enough. And we saw that on Sunday. If the Pats won that game on sunday, I would be having the same rant as I am having now.

Ok thats my rant and now I want to opinions

Anyone else feel this way?

Deep has not been working this year. Even when we had Moss, we kept going deep and came up with nothing (Jets game for example. We just kept throwing bombs and it killed drives, except for that one Moss catch). I would rather Brady get his basic throws down and have the WRs get open before we start going deep.

 

[Jangles]

Who should he throw it to?

We have one good WR and some TE.

 

[pherein]

Deep has not been working this year. Even when we had Moss, we kept going deep and came up with nothing (Jets game for example. We just kept throwing bombs and it killed drives, except for that one Moss catch). I would rather Brady get his basic throws down and have the WRs get open before we start going deep.

You know what, if you noticed Deep balls haven't been working for anyone. Defenses have grown up a bit, its all west coast now.

 

[Ring 6]

Absolutely - which is part of the reason why I stop short of questioning a more conservative approach. Yet even so recent trends with Brady going deep are interesting. A year like 2007, even with Moss at his disposal is the exception rather than the rule.

Something else worth considering is Brady and Moss' stats in passes thrown over 20 yards in the past several years (I think I brought this up in one of the many "I can't believe we traded Moss" threads)

You might think Brady's numbers are low but half way through the season we're not that far off last year's pace for deep balls caught... but we are down signficantly over last year's deep attempts. Tom Brady Splits - New England Patriots - ESPN

Lepfrogging 2008 for now, if you look at the high powered offense of 2007 you've got a VERY different picture.

Brady projects this season at 14 completions this year of 20 yards or more... in 2007 he finished with 28. Brady projects to end this seaon with 40 balls thrown deep this season. In 2007 he finished with 69 attempts.

So maybe there's a trend here... maybe it has something to do with Brady... maybe it has something to do with the personnel other than Brady or a different approach to playcalling.

One thing's for sure - 2007 stands out. Right now the production deep is looking similar to Matt Cassel's 2008 season - yet at least that season you'd think it was a purposefully conservative gameplan given Cassel's "rookie" status.

All of this data is worth pondering - yet at the end of the day I know that Brady can be so deadly and precise with his mid and short game, and that such an approach can just slice up NFL defenses when done well.

I'll take 14 of 40 (this year so far times 2) over 16 of 60 (last year)
A lot of the 13 of 20 that were incomplete or picked were to Moss.
Still trying to understand why long incompletions are good?

I guess when you lose one road game to a team that suprisingly is playing well after beating 3 straight expected playoff teams without Moss, everything is broken. I'll take 3 of every 4 against the level of competition we have played without Moss without any question, and its really 4 of 5 because we played at Miami without him really too.

I guess I should pay attention more because I'm sure I am missing how Moss would have stuffed Peyton Hillis all day yesterday.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I wonder if Bethel Johnson is available... he was always great at stretching the field and making acrobatic, ridiculous catches.





At least once or twice per season.

It makes you wonder though, how would the Pats offense be looking with Jacoby Ford instead of Taylor Price. Hmmmm. Now there's a real burner.

 

[pherein]

Absolutely - which is part of the reason why I stop short of questioning a more conservative approach. Yet even so recent trends with Brady going deep are interesting. A year like 2007, even with Moss at his disposal is the exception rather than the rule.

Something else worth considering is Brady and Moss' stats in passes thrown over 20 yards in the past several years (I think I brought this up in one of the many "I can't believe we traded Moss" threads)

You might think Brady's numbers are low but half way through the season we're not that far off last year's pace for deep balls caught... but we are down signficantly over last year's deep attempts. Tom Brady Splits - New England Patriots - ESPN

Lepfrogging 2008 for now, if you look at the high powered offense of 2007 you've got a VERY different picture.

Brady projects this season at 14 completions this year of 20 yards or more... in 2007 he finished with 28. Brady projects to end this seaon with 40 balls thrown deep this season. In 2007 he finished with 69 attempts.

So maybe there's a trend here... maybe it has something to do with Brady... maybe it has something to do with the personnel other than Brady or a different approach to playcalling.

One thing's for sure - 2007 stands out. Right now the production deep is looking similar to Matt Cassel's 2008 season - yet at least that season you'd think it was a purposefully conservative gameplan given Cassel's "rookie" status.

All of this data is worth pondering - yet at the end of the day I know that Brady can be so deadly and precise with his mid and short game, and that such an approach can just slice up NFL defenses when done well.

You know, your thinking and not putting the team down, thats a shot in the right direction. You have the #1 offense in many polls and the #1-5 OL with the #5 TE.

Brady's numbers are still up there, above Brees. Just a thought but maybe its your defense.

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

You know, your thinking and not putting the team down, thats a shot in the right direction. You have the #1 offense in many polls and the #1-5 OL with the #5 TE.

Brady's numbers are still up there, above Brees. Just a thought but maybe its your defense.

how dare you insult our reeeeeally young, and inexperienced defense