Fencer
Pro Bowl Player
- Joined
- Oct 2, 2006
- Messages
- 14,293
- Reaction score
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If we count as a "star" a guy who has had even one Pro Bowl or All-Pro selection after BB drafted him for the Pats -- or who ever was Super Bowl MVP -- I think the list is:
First round (first half)
Seymour
Mayo
Warren
100% hit rate
First round (second half)
Wilfork
Meriweather
McCourty
Mankins
Approximately 50% hit rate (Grahambo, Watson, Maroney, and I feel like I'm forgetting somebody)
Second round
Light
Vollmer
Branch
Hit rate well under 50% (how far below depends on how Chung, Cunningham, and Spikes evolve)
Third round
None
Hit rate 0%
Fourth round
Samuel
Gostowski (kicker)
Hit rate low (exact figure depends on whether you give full credit for a kicker)
Fifth round
Koppen
Hit rate low (as expected)
Sixth round
Brady
Hit rate very low (as expected -- lower than for 5th round as there are more comp picks)
Seventh round
Cassell (on the Chiefs)
Hit rate very low (as expected -- lower than for 5th round as there are more comp picks)
UDFA
None
Hit rate 0% (although before BB was in charge there was Vinateri)
Of course, this is simplistic. Koppen's success hasn't equated to Mankins', and Meriweather's hasn't matched Samuel's. But it's a reasonable first cut.
I think what this illustrates is that BB's hit rate for drafting stars is roughly in line with what the trade value chart would suggest. Trading down is not a magically successful strategy for him, but nor is it an ongoing blunder.
Trading forward into future years, however, is generally a pretty successful tactic. For example, first round picks traded into future years netted Wilfork and Mayo (and I think not a lot else, but so what?).
First round (first half)
Seymour
Mayo
Warren
100% hit rate
First round (second half)
Wilfork
Meriweather
McCourty
Mankins
Approximately 50% hit rate (Grahambo, Watson, Maroney, and I feel like I'm forgetting somebody)
Second round
Light
Vollmer
Branch
Hit rate well under 50% (how far below depends on how Chung, Cunningham, and Spikes evolve)
Third round
None
Hit rate 0%
Fourth round
Samuel
Gostowski (kicker)
Hit rate low (exact figure depends on whether you give full credit for a kicker)
Fifth round
Koppen
Hit rate low (as expected)
Sixth round
Brady
Hit rate very low (as expected -- lower than for 5th round as there are more comp picks)
Seventh round
Cassell (on the Chiefs)
Hit rate very low (as expected -- lower than for 5th round as there are more comp picks)
UDFA
None
Hit rate 0% (although before BB was in charge there was Vinateri)
Of course, this is simplistic. Koppen's success hasn't equated to Mankins', and Meriweather's hasn't matched Samuel's. But it's a reasonable first cut.
I think what this illustrates is that BB's hit rate for drafting stars is roughly in line with what the trade value chart would suggest. Trading down is not a magically successful strategy for him, but nor is it an ongoing blunder.
Trading forward into future years, however, is generally a pretty successful tactic. For example, first round picks traded into future years netted Wilfork and Mayo (and I think not a lot else, but so what?).