Where BB has drafted "stars"

[Fencer]

If we count as a "star" a guy who has had even one Pro Bowl or All-Pro selection after BB drafted him for the Pats -- or who ever was Super Bowl MVP -- I think the list is:

First round (first half)
Seymour
Mayo
Warren
100% hit rate

First round (second half)
Wilfork
Meriweather
McCourty
Mankins
Approximately 50% hit rate (Grahambo, Watson, Maroney, and I feel like I'm forgetting somebody)

Second round
Light
Vollmer
Branch
Hit rate well under 50% (how far below depends on how Chung, Cunningham, and Spikes evolve)

Third round
None
Hit rate 0%

Fourth round
Samuel
Gostowski (kicker)
Hit rate low (exact figure depends on whether you give full credit for a kicker)

Fifth round
Koppen
Hit rate low (as expected)

Sixth round
Brady
Hit rate very low (as expected -- lower than for 5th round as there are more comp picks)

Seventh round
Cassell (on the Chiefs)
Hit rate very low (as expected -- lower than for 5th round as there are more comp picks)

UDFA
None
Hit rate 0% (although before BB was in charge there was Vinateri)

Of course, this is simplistic. Koppen's success hasn't equated to Mankins', and Meriweather's hasn't matched Samuel's. But it's a reasonable first cut.

I think what this illustrates is that BB's hit rate for drafting stars is roughly in line with what the trade value chart would suggest. Trading down is not a magically successful strategy for him, but nor is it an ongoing blunder.

Trading forward into future years, however, is generally a pretty successful tactic. For example, first round picks traded into future years netted Wilfork and Mayo (and I think not a lot else, but so what?).

 

[A_Ghost_In_The_Machine]

Very interesting but I'm not sure how much I'd count on Pro Bowl selections as indicators of how good a player is (although you could make the argument that a star player is just a high profile player rather than a high quality player). Look at last year, Merriweather got a Pro Bowl vote despite the fact that he's not even the best safety on our roster let alone the AFC as a whole. While I'm sure there are a lot of well informed fans out there, there are also a lot of casual fans that probably voted just on the names they recognised regardless of how well they had been playing.

 

[plk]

Statistically, there is certainly a greater chance of getting a really good player in the first-round than in the later rounds, but even with the top five picks, the odds aren't what most people would expect. And if you miss with a very high pick, you are severely punished.

A 50% Chance You'll Squander Millions - WSJ.com

I believe that Belichick is only interested in high picks when he has a high level of confidence in a particular player because missing, which is very easy to do, has a serious downside.

 

[Rob0729]

If you have McCourty listed and the second round of Chung, Cunningham, and Spikes; shouldn't Gronkowski and Hernandez be listed too? Also, Mesko deserves mentioning. Yeah, none of them have gone to a Pro Bowl, but all have a very good chance. Gronkowski arguably deserved OROY consideration.

 

[Synovia]

Look at last year, Merriweather got a Pro Bowl vote despite the fact that he's not even the best safety on our roster let alone the AFC as a whole.

Bill Bellichick giving him more snaps than any of the other safeties on the roster would argue otherwise.

He got voted to the probowl by the PLAYERS AND COACHES. Not the fans. I'd argue that if both BB and the rest of the coaches in the league think hes the best safety on the roster, he probably is.

 

[TheSolderKing]

gronk 2


hernandez 4


spikes 3 or a was it second 2???

cunningham is a 3 or 4 i thought b/c price was our 3

 

[Fencer]

If you have McCourty listed and the second round of Chung, Cunningham, and Spikes; shouldn't Gronkowski and Hernandez be listed too? Also, Mesko deserves mentioning. Yeah, none of them have gone to a Pro Bowl, but all have a very good chance. Gronkowski arguably deserved OROY consideration.

Yep, I forgot to list the TEs. However, they don't change the qualitative point.

I don't think a punter is important enough to skew any analysis like this.

 

[Fencer]

gronk 2


hernandez 4


spikes 3 or a was it second 2???

cunningham is a 3 or 4 i thought b/c price was our 3

Cunningham & Spikes were both 2010 2nds, along with Gronkowski.

Chung was one of four different 2009 2nds.

The Pats have made 9 2nd-round choices over the past 3 drafts.

 

[patriotscpfc]

Bill Bellichick giving him more snaps than any of the other safeties on the roster would argue otherwise.

He got voted to the probowl by the PLAYERS AND COACHES. Not the fans. I'd argue that if both BB and the rest of the coaches in the league think hes the best safety on the roster, he probably is.

Chung, Sanders and Page all missed time through injuries.

 

[DarrylS]

Bill Bellichick giving him more snaps than any of the other safeties on the roster would argue otherwise.

He got voted to the probowl by the PLAYERS AND COACHES. Not the fans. I'd argue that if both BB and the rest of the coaches in the league think hes the best safety on the roster, he probably is.

Sometimes folks forget the probowl is not exclusively a popularity contest.. don't tell Felger he is content in believing otherwise.

 

[primetime]

While Pro Football Reference's Value stat is somewhat questionable, this is a pretty good piece on the average type of player you get at any spot in the draft.

For example, the average value of the 1st pick in the draft is only 63 (and this is the highest of any player in the draft)... if you get the 'average' player at that pick, it's going to be Roman Phifer. Good, but never a superstar.

At the Patriots #17 pick, Warrick Holdman is the guy you want a better player than to maximize value. That is, 'stars' are very rare and difficult to draft no matter where you are.

 

[Rob0729]

Yep, I forgot to list the TEs. However, they don't change the qualitative point.

I don't think a punter is important enough to skew any analysis like this.

Well, I get your point, but back in 2003 and 2004 the spin was Belichick drafts players who put aside personal glory to do whatever is best for the team. I still beleive that to a point. Belichick doesn't let players freelance and get gawdy stats or they are benched (Meriweather). It is all about 11 pieces on the field working as a team to achieve a goal not 11 individuals.

That affects the number of Pro Bowlers this team has had over the years. Even some of the Super Bowl teams had relatively low number of Pro Bowlers. In fact, I think many voters discounted a lot of players on this team because of perception of "the system" and "Belichick coaching mediocre talent up". That seriously hurt guys like Bruschi and Harrison when it came to Pro Bowl selections and I bet it hurt other players including guys Belichick drafted.

 

[TheSolderKing]

Cunningham & Spikes were both 2010 2nds, along with Gronkowski.

Chung was one of four different 2009 2nds.

The Pats have made 9 2nd-round choices over the past 3 drafts.

TY


touche on the OSCAR WILDE quote.


"All art is actually quite useless" is my favorite

will I pretend to appreciate it if I want to get in a girls pants. u bet


I took art history i know Monet Cristoph Edvard Munch etc.


play the game haha


writing is the ONLY art worth speaking of

 

[BlueThunder]

TY


touche on the OSCAR WILDE quote.


"All art is actually quite useless" is my favorite

will I pretend to appreciate it if I want to get in a girls pants. u bet


I took art history i know Monet Cristoph Edvard Munch etc.


play the game haha


writing is the ONLY art worth speaking of

HUH

 

[Synovia]

Chung, Sanders and Page all missed time through injuries.

And yet BMW's playing time didn't change at all when they came back.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I don't think a punter is important enough to skew any analysis like this.

Care to tell Zoltan that to his face? I'd pay to watch.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

If you have McCourty listed and the second round of Chung, Cunningham, and Spikes; shouldn't Gronkowski and Hernandez be listed too? Also, Mesko deserves mentioning. Yeah, none of them have gone to a Pro Bowl, but all have a very good chance. Gronkowski arguably deserved OROY consideration.

FWIW, one voter for the AP All-Pro team felt that GRONK was the single best TE in the entire NFL last year. At least some people are starting to see the light.

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

gronk 2


hernandez 4


spikes 3 or a was it second 2???

cunningham is a 3 or 4 i thought b/c price was our 3

Google exists my man. It would take you ten seconds to figure out where Spikes and Cunningham were drafted.

 

[plk]

Google exists my man. It would take you ten seconds to figure out where Spikes and Cunningham were drafted.

Or Official New England Patriots - History - All-Time Draft/Trade

I find it very useful.

 

[plk]

While Pro Football Reference's Value stat is somewhat questionable, this is a pretty good piece on the average type of player you get at any spot in the draft.

Once I understood how to read this, it is a fascinating chart. Anyone who wants to understand BB's mindset should contemplate it for a while. Those who just want to complain should not bother.