What's with the spread?

[Geezer Butler]

Still three. I think there is mad money on Atlanta they aren't showing.

What say you?

 

[BelichickFan]

It could be that the money line has more on the Falcons to even out the Patriots getting the most vs. the spread. Just a guess, I have no numbers to back that up.

 

[Tuck]

Hasn't budged all week. Anyone know where to find the current ratio of money that's been bet on each team?

 

[BelichickFan]

Hasn't budged all week. Anyone know where to find the current ratio of money that's been bet on each team?

66% on the Patriots. That's a actually down from 68%. The money line could be different though.

NFL Football Public Betting Chart - See Who The Public is Betting

 

[FourierSeries]

Sharps are on Atlanta and the public is on NE. The public have been killing the sharps this season.

 

[fnordcircle]

Sharps are on Atlanta and the public is on NE. The public have been killing the sharps this season.

Dirty pubbie checking in with a net of 2400 this year. It would have been more but this has been my worst year betting on anything not involving NE.

Next year I'm gonna bet $1k a game. Why the **** not, it's gonna be like printing money.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

I am guessing the fear is having to pay out twice.

I imagine the sharp money isn't so much on an Atl win, as it is a close loss. If the line moves 1-2pts, they could get annihilated.

Also, with such a public team like the Pats, and a much smaller following for Atlanta, there is almost no way to balance the dollars properly.

Vegas is hoping the pats win by 2. Everything else will look bad for them.

 

[Mogamedogz]

I just think the Falcons are a lot better than people are giving them credit for, and Vegas likes them to win.

 

[BelichickFan]

Vegas is hoping the pats win by 2. Everything else will look bad for them.

Curious why a Falcon win wouldn't be OK with them too?

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

Curious why a Falcon win wouldn't be OK with them too?

Just payout rates being higher. They won't get killed by it, just not the payout Vegas wants.

 

[BobDigital]

They are trying to play safe with some earlier bets in the year put on Atlanta. Atlanta had something like a 50:1 or so pay out at times during the year and money was put on it. Also They were bet on as a dark horse a fair amount with good odds and not many people took the Patriots to win it all at any point cause it was low reward for the risk.

Now that we are down to the last game they probably want to be sure enough is on the Pats that if the Falcons do win it doesn't bury them.

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

The Vegas SB favorite has lost the SB the last 5 years straight.

2015: Panthers -4.5
2014: Seahawks -1
2013: Broncos -2
2012: 49ers -4.5
2011: Patriots -2.5

Not that I think the Patriots will lose.

But people (eg: Felger & Mazz and in turn then everyone else in Boston) have been "nervous" that the line is so low and that the almighty Vegas "knows something" that the rest of the public doesn't and thus Pats fans should be scared.

 

[Bledsoehasaring]

Having been into sports betting for many years.. the superbowl is one of the few games a year where vegas does not put out a real line. Meaning there is so much casual money being bet that vegas sets the line not based on the actual odds of the game but on what it thinks the public will bet. If the public bets it 50/50 which is the goal they are thrilled. If the public bites on what they perceive to be a bad line they will hold it at that line because the odds are better for vegas than moving it to get a more even amount bet on both sides.

A side not i love the patriots and think they will win but i would say given whats going on with the line, vegas probably really sees this game as a pickem. But fans are putting more money on what vegas considers a bad line. So they are more than happy to not adjust the line and take the money cause they view the odds as being in their favor.

I remember when the steelers played the seahawks it was pitt minus 4 and everyone bet pitt cause the seahawks were not a well known team. I had a friend at the time tell me his contacts in vegas said the game should be a pick em and that vegas would never adjust the line. They didnt everyone bet pitt.. the seahawks lost by 11 probably due to the refs. And vegas lost big but they felt the odds were in their favor. Obviously sometimes despite the odds you can win or lose but thats what i think is going on here with the pats line.

 

[deroc5050]

Well like I said earlier if you bet Pats vs Falcons the day before the AFC and NFC championships were played you would have been unhappy because the Pats were -7 point favs over Atlanta and -7.5 favorites over GB. After the championships games were played the spread went to do -3. Your telling me that Vegas changed its mind over 1 game against an extremely injured GB team? Well hopefully if you put down money on the Pats you waited now you can takem at -3.

I would bet but I tried using my debit card on Bovada's website and my bank is blocking the transaction.. I guess I have to purchase Bit coins (crypto currency) in order to put money into a Sports Betting Las Vegas account. Seems like a major pain in the ass and I don't like how crypto currency can fluctuate.. so no betting for me unless someone wants to tell me a website or a suggestion. You can always PM me if you know a website I can use to throw some money down. Its just for fun, I never really bet.

 

[gitgronked82]

Well like I said earlier if you bet Pats vs Falcons the day before the AFC and NFC championships were played you would have been unhappy because the Pats were -7 point favs over Atlanta and -7.5 favorites over GB. After the championships games were played the spread went to do -3. Your telling me that Vegas changed its mind over 1 game against an extremely injured GB team? Well hopefully if you put down money on the Pats you waited now you can takem at -3.

I would bet but I tried using my debit card on Bovada's website and my bank is blocking the transaction.. I guess I have to purchase Bit coins (crypto currency) in order to put money into a Sports Betting Las Vegas account. Seems like a major pain in the ass and I don't like how crypto currency can fluctuate.. so no betting for me unless someone wants to tell me a website or a suggestion. You can always PM me if you know a website I can use to throw some money down. Its just for fun, I never really bet.

that's probably because your card doesn't do foreign transactions. friend had the same problem. it won't work with any of them I'm guessing unless you use another card

 

[Mogamedogz]

Well like I said earlier if you bet Pats vs Falcons the day before the AFC and NFC championships were played you would have been unhappy because the Pats were -7 point favs over Atlanta and -7.5 favorites over GB. After the championships games were played the spread went to do -3. Your telling me that Vegas changed its mind over 1 game against an extremely injured GB team? Well hopefully if you put down money on the Pats you waited now you can takem at -3.

I would bet but I tried using my debit card on Bovada's website and my bank is blocking the transaction.. I guess I have to purchase Bit coins (crypto currency) in order to put money into a Sports Betting Las Vegas account. Seems like a major pain in the ass and I don't like how crypto currency can fluctuate.. so no betting for me unless someone wants to tell me a website or a suggestion. You can always PM me if you know a website I can use to throw some money down. Its just for fun, I never really bet.

You're actually lucky man. I wouldnt touch this game with ANOTHER GUY's money.

This game is much closer to a pick'em than any of us want to admit. Those two RB's are going to give us fits out of the backfield as receivers.

 

[luuked]

Well like I said earlier if you bet Pats vs Falcons the day before the AFC and NFC championships were played you would have been unhappy because the Pats were -7 point favs over Atlanta and -7.5 favorites over GB. After the championships games were played the spread went to do -3. Your telling me that Vegas changed its mind over 1 game against an extremely injured GB team? Well hopefully if you put down money on the Pats you waited now you can takem at -3.

I would bet but I tried using my debit card on Bovada's website and my bank is blocking the transaction.. I guess I have to purchase Bit coins (crypto currency) in order to put money into a Sports Betting Las Vegas account. Seems like a major pain in the ass and I don't like how crypto currency can fluctuate.. so no betting for me unless someone wants to tell me a website or a suggestion. You can always PM me if you know a website I can use to throw some money down. Its just for fun, I never really bet.

Have you tried a virtual credit card like Revolut (Revolut - Simply Revolutionary) ?

 

[luuked]

You're actually lucky man. I wouldnt touch this game with ANOTHER GUY's money.

This game is much closer to a pick'em than any of us want to admit. Those two RB's are going to give us fits out of the backfield as receivers.

I am going to do, what I am always doing come playoffs... bet a not too big amount of disposable money on the opponent. Either we get ring #5 or I get a chunk of money as a silver lining. Best case there is a chance to arbitrage the **** out of the bet and end up with the money and the ring like 2 years ago.

 

[Mogamedogz]

I am going to do, what I am always doing come playoffs... bet a not too big amount of disposable money on the opponent. Either we get ring #5 or I get a chunk of money as a silver lining. Best case there is a chance to arbitrage the **** out of the bet and end up with the money and the ring like 2 years ago.

I completely get the logic.

Me personally though, I could never in good conscious bet against the Pats.

I'll just have to drink away the pain if we come up short. FML

 

[PatriotsReign]

I haven't bet on a sporting event since my college days...40 years ago...cha-Ching!