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What would you consider a fair offer to Samuels/ Graham

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PATSNUTme, Feb 6, 2007.

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  1. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    I guess if we can do mock drafts , we can do mock contracts.:D

    But it may be a good exercise for fans to say what they think would be a fair offer to our top Fa's. Then if we find the Patriots offered them more, we can't have numerous thread saying how cheap the Patriots are (that will be the day).

    So here is what I think would be fair given our current cap space:

    Samuels 4 years $24 Mil with a $6 mil bonus up front. Total cap hit over 4 years = $6mil per year.

    Graham 4 Years $16mil with a $4 mil bonus up front. Total cap hit over 4 years =$4mil per year.

    What is your idea of a fair offer to these guys?
     
  2. satz

    satz 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I think we might keep graham but samuel is going to get 11-12 million singing bonus / 40 million contract from some team.
     
  3. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    I think that a more than fair deal for Samuel is 6yrs/$40 million with an 8-10 million signing bonus.

    Its something that the Pats can easily swallow and its not over-paying him, imho.
     
  4. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    I will try to answer this with a straight face... ok, it is not working.. I am already cracking up....

    4 years - $24 million??? Is that a joke?

    First, what the heck does fair have to do with it? This is Samuel's chance to bank, he won't be looking for a fair offer. he will want every penny he deserves.

    A better question is what will it take to sign them? Fair is for the teams that didn't land the player.

    I admit, I don't follow TE contracts very closely and am not overly concerned about Graham. I posted the following information in a thread earlier, it provides some context on recent CB signings.

    Just my guess but something in the range of 6 years - 34-37 Milion with 11- 15 in guaranteed bonuses (maybe not all at once but all guaranteed)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    Here are some recent CB signings, make your own guess on where Samuels ranks. According to Miguel the Franchise number (average of top 5 salaries) for Cornerback, $7.79 million

    Samari Rolle, Baltimore - 6 years, $30.5 M, $11M bonus, YOB 1976
    Fred Smoot, Vikings - 6 years, $34 M, $10M bonus, YOB 1979
    Antoine Winfield, Vikings - 6 years, $35 M, $10.8M bonus, YOB 1977
    Fred Baxter, Cleveland - 6 years, $30 M, $10M bonus, YOB 1978
    Brian Williams, Jacksonville, 6 years, $34M, $10M bonus, YOB 1979
    R.W. McQuarters, Giants - 3 years, $6M , $2M bonus, YOB 1976
    Ike Taylor, Pittsburgh - 4 years, $22.5M, $6.4 bonus, YOB 1980
    Deshea Townsend, Pittsburgh - 4 years, $8M, $2 bonus, YOB 1975
    Lito Shepperd, Eagles - 5 years, $25M, $9M bonus, YOB 1981
    Sheldon Brown, Eagles - 6 years, $30M, $7M bonus, YOB 1979
    Ty Law, Chiefs - 5 years, $31.5M, $4M bonus, YOB 1974
    Mike McKenzie, Saints - 5-year, $22M, $4M bonus, YOB 1976

    FA class is weak, http://www.footballsfuture.com/2007/...eagentsDB.html

    Samuels - ???? - YOB 1981
    - wow, I didn't know he is so young, he is only 2 years older than Hobbs
    My guess, I think he on the rise and while he may never be a top 5 CB he should be a better than average 1st line CB for the entire length of the contract. If the Pats sign Samuels and draft a CB in rounds 1 or 2 cornerback will become a position of strength.
     
  5. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    I think that might get it done with Graham.

    I think your price is what the Pats are thinking. I think Samuel will want at least 4/32 with 12 up front.

    Franchise and trade.
     
  6. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    You don't have to answer what I posted, smart ass. Just post what you think is fair offer.

    I have an opinion about the numbers that you just posted but I'll keep it to myself.
     
  7. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    i don't know anything about this side of things, but i think asante's gonna get a whole lot more than six mill as a signing bonus--maybe double. i think we'll franchise him and then trade him for less than full value to keep him away from mangenius.
     
  8. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    You are right that was uncalled for, I have been in a very poor mood since January 20. The peeing on Polian sums up all our thoughts.

    Please don't keep your opinion on the numbers to yourself, the whole point is to make comments (right, wrong or indifferent).
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2007
  9. unoriginal

    unoriginal In the Starting Line-Up

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    Way to contribute.

    Probably something like five years, 35 million, with a 10M signing bonus. With a cap at $109 million and climbing, some team will pay ~8% of the cap for an interception machine.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2007
  10. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thing is Nut Asante's camp has reportedly already guffawed at a Pats offer that included a $7.5M signing bonus and was reportedly looking for $10M+ a half dozen INT's ago.

    Players and agents like the sound of the phony backloaded salary inflated contracts that the Pat's seem to be steering away from, but at the end of the day it's all about the first 3 years take and the signing bonus level that implicitly (as Miguel says) guarantees they will see that 3 years. Hard to say if Asante wants a 6 year deal (he'd be 32 as a FA) or would like one of those 3-4 year deals that give him another bite at the big signing bonus apple.

    I just don't see BB feeling he needs to pay any corner shut down money in the point of emphasis Polian hates defense era.

    My wild assed guess would be Asante & Co. want a 6 year $36-40M contract with $10M+ signing bonus and $20M+ in hand in the first 3.

    My guess is Belioli won't give him a double digit bonus and will want to tier it over two seasons and want an AAV in the $5M ($30M+ incentives) range tops.
     
  11. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    I did contribute in the very first post. The point of the thread is to find out what others think is fair.

    I think that Samuels won't want a contract going beyond 4 years so he can have another big payday after that. I may be wrong or I may be right.
     
  12. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    I didn't see that they were already offered $7.5 mil bonus and rejected that.

    I don't understand why they would be looking for a 6 year contract even of they are getting more bonus money up front. I would think that they would want another big bite of the apple 4 years from now while he's in his prime.
     
  13. PATRIOTS-80

    PATRIOTS-80 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    don't get too attached to Graham. I live in the state of Washington, and the Seahawks want Graham. Holmgren was going to draft him, but BB traded above him and "stole" him. The hawks drafted Stevens, and well you guys saw SB 40 right? Stevens is a joke!!!!!!!! Stevens is in FA, and probably will not be re-signed.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2007
  14. PATRIOTS-80

    PATRIOTS-80 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    you know the saying, "yeah, you will give me millions and millions later... how about X amount now?"

    That being said, the bottom line is the bonus money. If the Patriots tag him and offer him 10 million in bonus $$$$, I think we sign him just like we did with Sey.
     
  15. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 In the Starting Line-Up

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    I don't get involved with $$$'s so I won't guess. But it is safe to say that NOW is the time to take advantage of his impressive season -- and hope for a bidding war. Statistically, he may never duplicate this season again. His camp is probably very confident the Pats won't come close to the highest offer (doesn't make the Pats cheap -- it is what it is). Word is, the two NY teams are interested -- any more teams?
     
  16. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Samuels 4 years for $32 million; $12 million guaranteed.

    I agree with the Graham figure $ 4million for 4; with 4 guaranteed.

    TBC will go for 4years for $17 million; with with 5 guaranteed.
     
  17. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I think you've got Graham at $4 million near abouts what the franchise tag amount is - except you're giving it to him for 4 years. I don't think the team does that - while they value him highly, I don't believe they consider him one of the top 5 TEs in the league.

    This offseason I said $2 mil a season. Given the fact that we currently have no deep WR threat and need his blocking more than ever before I'd go up to $3 mil a season. I think that's fair, its just a question of how much to guarantee in a signing bonus. That I don't have a guess on.

    For Samuel, I would look at this "backwards" in a way. A 4 year contract is fair for both sides - but the terms of such a contract often equate to a 2 year guaranteed contract, with the team holding the options for the non-guaranteed years (as they always do)

    So what would a fair 2 year guarantee for Asante be? He's looking at a potential franchise tag amount of about $8 & $9 million respectively - but only at one year at a time.

    I think you need to guarantee him at least $8 million upfront in a signing bonus (this year's franchise # for CBs)- over 4 years, but with the total guaranteed money in the first two years at $12 million minimum for him to sign.

    That breaks down to $6 mil a season for the 1st two years - and another $6 mil a season if the team opts to keep him in years 3 & 4 - as the team could absorb the cap hit if he wasn't worth it.

    So that gives him less than 2 years of the franchise tag salary (assuming the Pats will threaten to use it) but gives him the security of a good guaranteed payday. Fair for everyone.

    Again - the alternative for Asante is just under $8 mil this year - no further guarantee. I think, knowing the Pats could and should play that card, that he would sign at a guaranteed $12 mil over 2 years, with the remaining 2 years there for the taking for another $6 mil each plus some good incentives.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2007
  18. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    IMHO,

    A fair offer is the highest offer we speculate that the FO offered before we lose the player to a team that overpaid.

    I don't know what's "fair". I also don't why fairness is relevant. It seems that there are three relevant numbers:

    1) The highest amount the patriots will pay, given how the FO values the players
    2) The price that the market will pay
    3) What Samuel is willing to take from various teams to sign
     
  19. pats63

    pats63 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Graham will be easier to sign...Asante is gone to highest bidder...With the money save we can get more for the buck....Jarret Johnson,Lodon-flecther
     
  20. fester

    fester On the Game Day Roster

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    Graham --- tough question, I think my valuation for him is as a good but not great and never will be great tight end. He has a little more production for the Patriots as a blocker than he will for other teams, but most other teams will use him more as a receiver.

    5 years, 4 million to sign, 2 million roster bonus in year 2, total payments of 15 million:

    2007 Season: Cap Number: 1.8 million [800k SB, 1.0 mil salary]
    2008 Season: Cap Number: 4 million [800K SB, 1.2 mil salary, 2 million roster bonus]
    2009 Season: Cap Number: 2.8 million [800K SB, 2.0 mil salary]
    2010 Season: Cap Number: 3.1 million [800K SB, 2.3 mil salary]
    2011 Season: Cap Number: 3.3 million [800K SB, 2.5 mil salary]

    This contract structure lets the Patriots do a little bit of front loading, and it also makes it likely that Graham will be with the Pats for at least four more years, and could see the entire contract.

    Samuels is IMO as close to an elite corner that the Patriots will access to in the next two seasons. The free agent marketplace sucks as every team has the cash to sign their best corners, so what is available are either going to be impossible to negoatiate for players, or JAGs. As another poster noted, Samuels is YOUNG! so a four year contract puts him in place for another big pay day while giving the Patriots time to groom a replacement from the 2008 or 2009 draft.

    I think my valuation on Samuels would lead me to offer a 5 year contract with a 10 million dollar signing bonus and a 3 million dollar roster bonus due on the day after the contract is signed contract as well as a guaranteed 1 million roster bonus for the first day of the 2008 free agency season. Total nominal value of the contract would be 41 million dollars as the cap should continue to rapidly increase.

    2007 Cap Hit: 7 million [2 mil SB, 3 mil RB, 2 mil salary]
    2008 Cap Hit: 7 million [2 mil SB, 1 mil RB, 4 mil salary]
    2009 Cap Hit: 8 million [2 mil SB, 6 mil salary] [this is the breakeven point on cap amortization for the cut/trade decision]
    2010 Cap Hit: 9 million [2 mil SB, 7 mil salary]
    2011 Cap Hit: 12 million [2 mil SB, 8 mil roster bonus for the first day of 2011 free agency period, 2 mil salary]

    So this contract is really a reasonable 3 year contract with a decent club option for year 4, and a no way in hell cap landmine in year 5 that will put the Patriots and Samuel in renogatiation or release mode.

    As for TBC -3 years 1.5 mil to sign, total value 4.5 million --- right now he is a good JAG with some limited upside potential

    2009 Cap Hit:
     
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