Welker 3/06 rumor of the day: Will go to Free Agency

[JarOfMayo51]

If that's true, and he ends up testing the market without finding a team that would pay him, he can kiss NE goodbye. No way they'd take him back after this little stunt.

To be quite honest, I'm starting to get sick of that little prick's primadonna attitude.

His primadonna attitude? Hes trying to negotiate for the final contract of his career and based on his production he is probably being lowballed by the Patriots as was expected. Its prudent business to wait a week or so before signing any deals and let the market determine your value, which provides leverage in further negotiations... assuming the market offers him more than the Patriots are that is.

 

[ralmat55]

The Madden comment wasn't directed at you, it was for Brady2Moss. Unless talib wants to take a cut rate deal for 2 years i wouldn't sign him. Right now the Patriots have the worst WR corps I have ever seen. I have little hope it will be very good this season.

I knew it wasn't. Why would you insist Talib take a cut rate deal? Wouldn't it be enough to not give him any long-term or guaranteed money? I agree with you about the receiving corps if Welker leaves and Lloyd goes as well. Bill Belichick has an arrogant or stubborn streak which sometimes doesn't serve him or the Patriots all that well. Good players are lost without replacement because he just can't accept that sometimes they have to pay more than their value to a player because the market and circumstances require it.

 

[NgataTroublemaker]

Very nice train of thought. I like it. This should stir up the "Pats do no wrong" hornets nest. Let me start....

I guess Belichick is the only Patriot worthy of a #1 contract.....what a joke

I don't think "worthiness" has much to do with it, though Belichick is clearly the best coach in the league. It is that the coach's salary does not count against the cap. Overpaying your head coach doesn't hurt your finished product at all (takes away no money from the on-the-field talent). Overpaying for on the field production harms a team, which is why the good teams, especially the Patriots, are loathe to do it, even when it means letting popular players walk/go.

That said, I do not think Welker "testing" FA means he will not be in a Patriots uniform next year. It just means, imo, he has a decision to make, and one of the variables required to make the decision is unknown until he fields offers from other teams. Obviously the Patriots are not offering him as much as he would want, or as much as he requires to sign without that unkown variable being known. So if a crappy team offers him only 10% more than the Pats best offer, maybe he stays. If it is 25% more maybe that tips the scales and he leaves.

I think Welker should realize that the Pats help him a bit more than he helps the Pats, though both are significantly helped by the other. He is more likely to see the end of a relatively medium-sized deal with you guys, than a larger deal with a losing team who could implode, "blow it up", release all expensive players, and restart/rebuild in 2-3 years (at which point Welker would be old and probably coming off 2-3 years of mediocre stats while on a bad team).

 

[Kevin]

Excellent post -- until the last sentence (I'm not sure why people have to take shots at Welker or the Pats every step of the way here; it's business folks, on both sides.) I managed to get to one camp session last year and thought Edelman stood out in receiver drills, though I'm certainly no expert. Taking the season on the whole: I thought Edelman looked great and was poised to take not the Welker role but the Branch role in the offense. In the end I also felt Welker proved he is special for what the Pats ask him to do; and I don't think the Pats offensive failings in the playoffs have to do with his presence, but instead the absence of guys like Edelman and Gronk (and the limited ability of Lloyd).

Thanks. I'm not taking a shot at Wes. It's understandable if he thinks he deserves a big contract; he's one of the greatest receivers in Patriots history.

I agree on everything you said. My stance on Welker has flip-flopped quite a bit. I am open to moving on from him but it's obvious that he is quite important to this offense and if we are to move on we must have a backup plan.

 

[PATSNUTme]

I can hardly wait to see what the 3/7 rumor will be.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

But, the Patriots won't do that because they will not pay market value for anyone other than Bill Belichick.

Thats not true at all, they've given huge contracts at the top of the market out to multiple players, they just can't do it for everyone and Welker is at that age where you have to be careful of how you structure one as well.

Ty Law, Tom Brady, Adalius Thomas, Richard Seymour, Logan Mankins, Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Gronk, A. Hernandez all got top of the market contracts. Ty Law's made him the highest paid defensive player, as did Seymour's.

You can only have so many players on your team that are top market All-Pro dudes... the rest of the team you have to build as a middle class to support the pillars of your team which are the top paid guys.

 

[Brady2Moss]

Talib is an average CB with serious character questions and an inability to stay on the field, Welker is the most productive player in football at his position for the past five seasons and has helped the Patriots to the most productive offense in NFL history. You should stick to Madden, it suits you better.

Lol ok he's been a steal for the last 5 years with his contract but his production isn't going to be worth the 8-10 million they'll have to pay to keep him. You actually think Welker is that unique? Tons of guys could make up his production given his targets and this system. Slot receiver is like the runningback position you can fill it with anyone if you have Tom Brady.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Brady, Branch, Curtis Martin, Samuel, did not.

They actually offered Branch quite a substantial contract.. I believe the difference in value between the two contracts was 4 million dollars (out of a total of 41).

Brady has been pretty well compensated with guaranteed money throughout his career while also structuring his contract in a way that doesn't hurt the team.

 

[naF staP]

I can't believe all the Amendola support here. The Patriots don't need another slot guy made of china, they already have Edelman as that. Why get another one? Amendola has played 12 games in 2 seasons! Last I checked the Slot receiver takes a pounding on the field and neither Edelman or Amendola can take the hits Welker has taken over the years. There is no way they will have the production Welker has given this team, not even with their stats combined. Stop all this Amendola talk nonsense!!

 

[JarOfMayo51]

I wonder what Reche Caldwell is doing.

Jabar Gaffney is a free agent this year, but hes now 31 years old. He would be a decent #3 WR and wouldn't cost a lot.

 

[EJ Blitz]

If that's true, and he ends up testing the market without finding a team that would pay him, he can kiss NE goodbye. No way they'd take him back after this little stunt.

To be quite honest, I'm starting to get sick of that little prick's primadonna attitude.

Welker has a primadonna attitude? really? He's doing what every athlete does to prevent themselves from getting shafted. It's not like the Patriots are pelting their players with wads of cash, begging them to come back.

 

[Kevin]

I can't believe all the Amendola support here. The Patriots don't need another slot guy made of china, they already have Edelman as that. Why get another one? Amendola has played 12 games in 2 seasons! Last I checked the Slot receiver takes a pounding on the field and neither Edelman or Amendola can take the hits Welker has taken over the years. There is no way they will have the production Welker has given this team, not even with their stats combined. Stop all this Amendola talk nonsense!!

I don't believe Danny Amendola is an injury prone player. Much of his injuries come from lots of bad luck, just like Gronk's injuries. Just like Welker's ACL injury.

His dislocated elbow was a total fluke and his clavicle injury came from an extremely awkward hard fall, just like Gronk's second break on his arm.

 

[ralmat55]

Thats not true at all, they've given huge contracts at the top of the market out to multiple players, they just can't do it for everyone and Welker is at that age where you have to be careful of how you structure one as well.

Ty Law, Tom Brady, Adalius Thomas, Richard Seymour, Logan Mankins, Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Gronk, A. Hernandez all got top of the market contracts. Ty Law's made him the highest paid defensive player, as did Seymour's.

You can only have so many players on your team that are top market All-Pro dudes... the rest of the team you have to build as a middle class to support the pillars of your team which are the top paid guys.

I already debunked Law,Thomas,Mankins and Wilfork in a prior post. Mayo, Gronk and Hernandez signed early extensions at team-friendly rates which was good for them. Guaranteed money is what every NFL player should get as much of as soon as possible. But, none of them will make under their current contracts what they would have made if they had played out their rookie contracts and hit free agency in good health.

I could not agree more that you can't pay everyone what they want. But, if you have the money to pay Chad Ochostinko $5 million, than you have enough money to pay Wes Welker a million or so a year more than YOUR value says you should.

It's pig-headedness at it's worse, and when the history of the Brady-Belichick
era is written, we'll all know it was one big reason the Pats left so many championships on the table during it.

 

[TruthSeeker]

If Welker indeed leaves (press has been all over the place the last 2 days), I wish him the best of luck. I am a huge fan of his, and he has given this organization his all. But, with Free Agency, I look at him like Deion Branch, Ty Law, Assante Samuel and all the guys we did lose in free agency. I hated losing them, but it was just a fact of life, people get destroyed out there on the field, a career is for only so long, and they want to get as much as they can before it all ends. So I have no ill will towards WW, I wish him the best, and will root for him every game, except if he plays against the Pats.

I remember when he used to tear us apart as a Dolphin, my only hope is he winds up outside of our division or conference.

IF he winds up coming back, I will root for him like I always did, I truly appreciate everything he has done as a Patriot.

 

[goheels22002]

I'm not sure what the talk about "testing" free agency is all about.

Welker's agent no doubt has already spoken with representatives of every team interested in Welker. The notion that Welker would formally move on to free agency indicates that those offers are higher than what the Patriots have on the table.

At that point it comes down to whether he wants to play for a team like the Browns or some other team further away from a Super Bowl, or pick up another ring or two with New England for less than the highest offer.

Welker's agent would be risking his license to represent NFL players if he had those conversations.prior to March 9, 2013. Read the CBA. Technically Welker is under contract to the Patriots until March 12, 2013 when the new NFL contract year begins.

What really matters is the guaranteed money. The Patriots clearly have an offer on the table. the main question is whether Welker can find a team that will guarantee more money, and offer more years. The Patriots know this and have to be ready to adapt to the market unless some team goes overboard.

Again, how much is really out there for a slot receiver with lots of miles on him from a team with a legitimate shot at the whole thing? Welker is not going to do the Damien Woody thing - take the biggest contract he could get from a team that was pathetic (the Detroit Lions.) Woody did what he needed to do for his family and no one blamed him for it. Woody understood the Patriots position and parted ways amicably. Deion Branch did the same with Seattle in 2006.

Last year Welker signed his franchise tender without truly testing the market. This time, he should.

Do not forget that Welker won Round 1: he was not tagged. Round 2 is check the market. Round 3 is sign a contract. He'll be back.

 

[ralmat55]

I don't believe Danny Amendola is an injury prone player. Much of his injuries come from lots of bad luck, just like Gronk's injuries. Just like Welker's ACL injury.

His dislocated elbow was a total fluke and his clavicle injury came from an extremely awkward hard fall, just like Gronk's second break on his arm.

Bad luck is what makes a player injury-prone. Amendola is not going to out-Welker Welker. The only way losing Welker works for the good is if Hernandez assumes the slot role staying reasonably healthy, and the Patriots find someone or someones who can upgrade the production of their outside receivers.

 

[Froob]

Welker's agent would be risking his license to represent NFL players if he had those conversations.prior to March 9, 2013. Read the CBA.

Everybody does it. Just agents rarely ever get caught doing it.

 

[grux]

The only way this makes sense to me is if he and his agent are fairly certain they can get more cash from another team. I would think Denver and Indi would be very interested in his services. If he walks you can be sure the pats have plans b,c and d already in place. This is going to get interesting.

 

[Jimke]

I already debunked Law,Thomas,Mankins and Wilfork in a prior post. Mayo, Gronk and Hernandez signed early extensions at team-friendly rates which was good for them. Guaranteed money is what every NFL player should get as much of as soon as possible. But, none of them will make under their current contracts what they would have made if they had played out their rookie contracts and hit free agency in good health.

I could not agree more that you can't pay everyone what they want. But, if you have the money to pay Chad Ochostinko $5 million, than you have enough money to pay Wes Welker a million or so a year more than YOUR value says you should.

It's pig-headedness at it's worse, and when the history of the Brady-Belichick
era is written, we'll all know it was one big reason the Pats left so many championships on the table during it.

This is shaping up as one of those years where the Patriots take a major step backwards. This will occur if they lose most (if not all) of their good
free agents and replace them with second rate players. Another lost
year for Brady?

 

[borg]

I don't think "worthiness" has much to do with it, though Belichick is clearly the best coach in the league. It is that the coach's salary does not count against the cap. Overpaying your head coach doesn't hurt your finished product at all (takes away no money from the on-the-field talent). Overpaying for on the field production harms a team, which is why the good teams, especially the Patriots, are loathe to do it, even when it means letting popular players walk/go.

That said, I do not think Welker "testing" FA means he will not be in a Patriots uniform next year. It just means, imo, he has a decision to make, and one of the variables required to make the decision is unknown until he fields offers from other teams. Obviously the Patriots are not offering him as much as he would want, or as much as he requires to sign without that unkown variable being known. So if a crappy team offers him only 10% more than the Pats best offer, maybe he stays. If it is 25% more maybe that tips the scales and he leaves.

I think Welker should realize that the Pats help him a bit more than he helps the Pats, though both are significantly helped by the other. He is more likely to see the end of a relatively medium-sized deal with you guys, than a larger deal with a losing team who could implode, "blow it up", release all expensive players, and restart/rebuild in 2-3 years (at which point Welker would be old and probably coming off 2-3 years of mediocre stats while on a bad team).

Why is Belichick "clearly the best coach in the league?" Eight trophies have been hoisted since 2004, none by BB. His pass defense is anemic and his offense comes up small the last game of every year. Clearly BB is the "best regular season coach" but that and 25 cents gets you an Indy Colts souvenir beer cubby.

As far as Welker is concerned, how many millions do you think he will leave on the table to remain a NE Patriot. He played hardball last year and earned himself another $1.5 mill (estimate) for the year verses his 2 year/$16 mill Pats offer. And you really think now he will cave? Not after seeing Bowe make 50% more per year than the Pats 2012 offer. No way