VJCPatriot's 3/30 Patriots Mock Draft!

[Irish Hooligan]

It's not very flashy, but lose the two UCLA guys and I'd be content with that.

How about instead of the Bruins;
33. J. Sheard DE/OLB
59. S. Acho OLB or B. Carter OLB

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Trade 17 and 123 to Atlanta for 27 + 59 Atlanta moves up of a DE choose Kerrigan or Clayborn I would think Kerrigan.

I like this trade, but I would expand it to include Welker going to Atlanta for their third as well.

 

[dryheat44]

I like this trade, but I would expand it to include Welker going to Atlanta for their third as well.

We've got Welker dirt cheap for another year. I'm not interested in trading him for a 3rd round pick. The only way I trade Welker this year is if Larry Fitzgerald is coming in and I know for sure Julian Edelman can handle to role. Otherwise you're taking away a major piece of the offense for no good reason.

If somebody wants to offer a 1st rounder, I'd listen.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

We've got Welker dirt cheap for another year. I'm not interested in trading him for a 3rd round pick. The only way I trade Welker this year is if Larry Fitzgerald is coming in and I know for sure Julian Edelman can handle to role. Otherwise you're taking away a major piece of the offense for no good reason.

If somebody wants to offer a 1st rounder, I'd listen.

Atlanta is reported to be hot for Welker, he would fit in great with White and Jenkins. Maybe we can get an additional 2012 pick based on Atlanta getting to the SB.

 

[SanAngeloState]

I've seen some reports that have Ijana as a 7th round pick, hopelessly unready...well one report. Just FYI. Also Bailey I think is a non-go as he's too slow off the line and wouldn't have a position...not a real natural player at anything.

anyway...

1a. Aldon Smith - has great potential as a pass rusher, very tough and quick
1b. Cam Heyward - has great potential as 3-4, very natural, strong
2a...trade down
late 2nd: Dan Watkins

RBs to consider: allen bradford USC, vereen from cal, Johnny White NC
WRs: Denarious Moore Tenn., Tandon Doss Indiana
DBs: Marcus Gilchrest, Tejay Johnson TCU, Curtis Brown Texas

 

[bucky]

There seems to be a growing sentiment on this board that nobody is worth picking for the Pats in the top 35 or so. Yet somehow there is a wealth of talent to be had later. I think your mock shows that this approach leads to a boatload of reasonable talent, somewhat awkward fits and health/attitude questions. Your picks may make more sense in the context of other moves (rework the OL scheme, trade Mankins, cut Branch and Edelperson, etc.), but I'm assuming 2011 will be building off of 2010...not another overhaul.

The Pats are returning a 14-2 team pretty much intact and this is a top heavy draft. Selecting 12 players, most of them outside the top 50, seems like a counter-intuitive approach...but you are not alone in thinking this way. It just isn't the way I hope the draft unfolds for the Pats.

Completely agree with this sentiment. I don't see many guys form outside the 3rd round making this roster.

 

[JoeSixPat]

It was a great read but something is telling me that for wither 28 or 33 they are getting a first next year (or next draft)

I agree... and in particular the first pick on Day 2 is a valuable commodity in that all the teams have time to consider who's out there, take their time and make the best deal etc... and the fact that these late Round 1 picks and early Round 2 picks are worth a 1st rounder the following year/draft - which could well be a MUCH higher pick.

Although turnover at OL might have changed Belichick's thinking, prompting him to draft in volume in the hopes of finding some keepers, I think Belichick knows that if he uses all his picks this year he's not going to be able to keep a great many on the roster anyway.

 

[patfanken]

There seems to be a growing sentiment on this board that nobody is worth picking for the Pats in the top 35 or so. Yet somehow there is a wealth of talent to be had later. I think your mock shows that this approach leads to a boatload of reasonable talent, somewhat awkward fits and health/attitude questions. Your picks may make more sense in the context of other moves (rework the OL scheme, trade Mankins, cut Branch and Edelperson, etc.), but I'm assuming 2011 will be building off of 2010...not another overhaul.

The Pats are returning a 14-2 team pretty much intact and this is a top heavy draft. Selecting 12 players, most of them outside the top 50, seems like a counter-intuitive approach...but you are not in thinking this way. It just isn't the way I hope the draft unfolds for the Pats.

AMEN, AMEN, and AMEN. This is DEFINITELY NOT the year to concentrate on volume and potential. This is the year to go after QUALITY not hope that late 2nd r ounders and 3rd rounders will eventually turn into impact starters in a few years.

I propose this strategy. Do what you have to to get a premium DE who can start right away. And OLman who can compete with Connolly for the RG position, and OLB who can be a situational pass rusher. Spend whatever resources you want to get those 3 guys.....THEN you take what you have left and take your shots. Injury concerns like Romeus and Bruce Carter look like reasonable risks to red shirt. Others in this thread mention several small college guys like Kendrick, etc who seem like excellent choices.

Here's what I don't want to see. The Patriots with the most picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. This is NOT a deep draft. I don't want to see the Pats trade 33 UNLESS it is for a serious premium. That pick is worth more than just what the chart says it is. I DON'T want to see a lot of OLmen. A couple yes, but more than that is a waste. Except for Neal who missed most of the season anyway, the Pats can very easily return a very good OL intact - don't let a single game convince you we need a OL overhaul. Especi,ally when the 2012 draft will have a MUCH better and DEEPER OL group. Get one guy who can start this year and maybe a trainee late, but that is what we need for THIS year.

So my ideal draft will see us get: A DE and OLB/pass rusher with our first 2 picks

Smith, Watt, Quinn, or Jordan with our first pick

Then a Wilkerson, Ayers, Reed, etc with the 2nd depending on who we get first

Then as far as I'm concerned its whatever is the best value

Don't forget there will be over 500 FAs available very as soon as the CBA is signed. Some very good PROVEN players will be available to fill in any needs for the short term. Its not like if you miss in the draft we are doomed.

Having 6 picks in the first 2 rounds is a unique opportunity. Lets take full advantage of it.

 

[mgteich]

Let's clarify.

I think a lot of think that the those drafted in the 17-35 range have more value to others than to the patriots. We certainly could get fine additions at 28 and 33. However, I believe that trading down from 28 would get us better value (and perhaps even from 33 although this is a bit more doubtful).

There is indeed VALUE in picks in the 36-75 range. The question is where the talent drops off significantly for the second time (the first at about 16). So, we have four ranges: 1-16, 17-35, 36-75, after 75.

THE SWEET SPOT
So, for me, the sweet spot is 36-75, where we could end up picking many times; my expectation is 4 picks, my hope is 5. I would expect 92 to be used for trading up or down or into 2012.

AFTER THE DROPOFF AT 75 OR SO
We are a well-stocked 14-2 team, with few free agents, and lots of picks in the top 75 (5 at the moment). Players after 75 will be competing for the back of the roster. As always, some COULD stick. A developmental center like Fusco is quite possible, especially if we ahve expanded 2011 rosters.

There seems to be a growing sentiment on this board that nobody is worth picking for the Pats in the top 35 or so. Yet somehow there is a wealth of talent to be had later. I think your mock shows that this approach leads to a boatload of reasonable talent, somewhat awkward fits and health/attitude questions. Your picks may make more sense in the context of other moves (rework the OL scheme, trade Mankins, cut Branch and Edelperson, etc.), but I'm assuming 2011 will be building off of 2010...not another overhaul.

The Pats are returning a 14-2 team pretty much intact and this is a top heavy draft. Selecting 12 players, most of them outside the top 50, seems like a counter-intuitive approach...but you are not alone in thinking this way. It just isn't the way I hope the draft unfolds for the Pats.

 

[OldEngland]

This is the way this mock fell, not necessarily the way I planned for it to go. DL set for years early, solid OL in the middle, developmental LB prospects late.

17 Cameron Heyward
28 Muhammed Wilkinson
Trade 33 to Arizona for 37 plus 137
37 Stephen Paea
60 Stefen Wisniewski
74 Clint Boling
92 Shane Vereen
123 Greg Romeus
137 Mark Herzlich
156 Thomas Keiser
184 Karl Klug

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

There seems to be a growing sentiment on this board that nobody is worth picking for the Pats in the top 35 or so. Yet somehow there is a wealth of talent to be had later. I think your mock shows that this approach leads to a boatload of reasonable talent, somewhat awkward fits and health/attitude questions. Your picks may make more sense in the context of other moves (rework the OL scheme, trade Mankins, cut Branch and Edelperson, etc.), but I'm assuming 2011 will be building off of 2010...not another overhaul.

The Pats are returning a 14-2 team pretty much intact and this is a top heavy draft. Selecting 12 players, most of them outside the top 50, seems like a counter-intuitive approach...but you are not alone in thinking this way. It just isn't the way I hope the draft unfolds for the Pats.

Some are articulating a top heavy draft, yet once out of the Top Ten it looks pretty light to me, with the next real value grouping beginning in the mid-second, and another possible in the fourth/fifth round range.

As far as players not making this team, I'm not as pessimistic; the CBA squabble seems destined to provide players reporting to camp with no offseason training program - that should be worth at least one slot opening up. Even before that, people have suggested various injured prospects to target late for PUP or IR purposes as a head start on 2012. While I may not be intrigued by any they are suggesting, that doesn't mean the Pats don't have some thoughts in that direction ... or wouldn't be quicker to pull the redshirt trigger on a draftee whom they might have nursed along for awhile longer in previous seasons.

 

[borg]

First attempt ever.....
Draft Philosophy.....Beef....plus some 2012 action

#17 + #92 = #15 + #146 (Miami) =
JJ Watts DE
Big motor, long arms...I just want to root for the guy. Pats get back to their winning formula. Force 5 OL to battle 3 DTs

#28 + #74 + #184 = #21 + #118 + #140 (KC) =
Mike Pouncey G
I'm beefing the interior line, no matter if Mankins stays or goes. RG is open and the Pats have the luxory of securing the top guard with great DNA. Protect Brady up the middle and open holes for the smurfs

#33 =
Jabaal Sheard DE/OLB
Though I expect BB to trade either #28 or #33, I'm grabbing this pass rusher now. Comparing his tape to Aldon Smith and Houston, Sheard is a round peg that fits in a round hole, unlike Smith and Houston. Loved his college production.

#60 =
Steve Wisniewski C
Looking out long term at the O line, Tackle is a need but i can't fill this need here....but I can look long term and grab this Penn state center and finally replace Koppen, who's is just plain unremarkable. The future of the interior of this O line is being remade, and with the luxory of an excess of picks....beef is good

#69 =
Trade out for a 2nd rounder in 2012(Cardinals)

#118 + #156 = #108(49ers) =
Delone Carter RB. Compact bruiser, productive, fumble free 2010. Improved measurables shows me upside. Does like to punch classmates

#125 =
Trade for 2012 4th rounder plus #172(Vikings)

#140 =
Greg Romeus DE
Toss him on the DL and hope he becomes future value

#172 =
Trade for 2012 5th rounder (don't know don't care)

Summary: I got my 3 guys...Watt, Pouncey, Sheard...I beefed up the interior O line...got me a cerebral QB that can retain playbook with minimal reps and BB strokes Saban...gained future chips with a redshirt DE in waiting. Drafted only 6 players....when checking CB and S depth, slim pickins and very slow. Pats DL had depth, no need. Just don't see the need to draft a surplus of guys with little chance to make roster. So I targeted, and fired.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Summary: I got my 3 guys...Watt, Pouncey, Sheard...I beefed up the interior O line...got me a cerebral QB that can retain playbook with minimal reps and BB strokes Saban...gained future chips with a redshirt DE in waiting. Drafted only 6 players....when checking CB and S depth, slim pickins and very slow. Pats DL had depth, no need. Just don't see the need to draft a surplus of guys with little chance to make roster. So I targeted, and fired.

Interesting draft but what QB are you talking about cos you didn't select any that I saw.

 

[borg]

Interesting draft but what QB are you talking about cos you didn't select any that I saw.

Forgot to include:
#146 McElroy QB

 

[Water Boy]

I DON'T want to see a lot of OLmen. A couple yes, but more than that is a waste. Except for Neal who missed most of the season anyway, the Pats can very easily return a very good OL intact - don't let a single game convince you we need a OL overhaul. Especially when the 2012 draft will have a MUCH better and DEEPER OL group. Get one guy who can start this year and maybe a trainee late, but that is what we need for THIS year.

Its very possible that Mankins forces a trade/sits out and Light is offered more $ and years by another team. That would leave us with 3 starting O line positions to fill. You may be right about 2012 being much deeper for O line, but are you willing to gamble that you won't have major holes in the O-line 2011?

 

[MaineMan]

Its very possible that Mankins forces a trade/sits out and Light is offered more $ and years by another team. That would leave us with 3 starting O line positions to fill. You may be right about 2012 being much deeper for O line, but are you willing to gamble that you won't have major holes in the O-line 2011?

Add to that the fact that Kaczur's retention may now be on shaky ground and we may end up losing as many as FOUR recent starters. So, I agree that we appear to need a considerable influx.

However, Dante has performed magic in the past with much less than what one might expect. The '03 and '04 lines weren't exactly rippling with high-round talent and the '05 line featured TWO rookies, IIRC (and the offense performed completely up to our high standards, but was sabotaged by an inexplicably crappy defense). Wendell, Ohrnberger, LeVoir, Connolly, Steve Manieri and Thomas Austin aren't a particularly confidence-inspiring supporting cast for Vollmer and Koppen (who's not that confidence-inspiring in the first place anymore), but, again --- Dante. I mean, I'd be giggling with delight if Dante produced a great 2011 O-line with four first-time starters including two rookies, but I wouldn't be totally shocked.

 

[borg]

Add to that the fact that Kaczur's retention may now be on shaky ground and we may end up losing as many as FOUR recent starters. So, I agree that we appear to need a considerable influx.

However, Dante has performed magic in the past with much less than what one might expect. The '03 and '04 lines weren't exactly rippling with high-round talent and the '05 line featured TWO rookies, IIRC (and the offense performed completely up to our high standards, but was sabotaged by an inexplicably crappy defense). Wendell, Ohrnberger, LeVoir, Connolly, Steve Manieri and Thomas Austin aren't a particularly confidence-inspiring supporting cast for Vollmer and Koppen (who's not that confidence-inspiring in the first place anymore), but, again --- Dante. I mean, I'd be giggling with delight if Dante produced a great 2011 O-line with four first-time starters including two rookies, but I wouldn't be totally shocked.

I am fascinated to see how BB addresses the offensive line.
BB, the Economist, has to be questioning a layout of what could be $12-14 million to resign the left side of his line (Light and Mankins)....especially when considering high draft picks would be paid a fraction of what these veterans will demand. But with Neal retiring and Kaczur possibly being let go, alot of money could be freed up.
He has shown us that he has no fear starting rookie linemen, Koppen and Mankins. The tackle situation gets cloudy when considering the alternatives of not signing Light. Would BB be comfortable shifting Seabass to LT and inserting a rookie at RT?
Then there is the issue of protecting an aging Brady. Will BB deploy greater percentage of cap space/draft choices to insure that the franchise (Brady) remains on his feet?
When considering need,draft position, and available talent, it does appear that the Patriots are positioned well to cluster bomb this grouping. Six picks early....what better opportunity to to insure the future of the line

 

[manxman2601]

Some draft thoughts:

As a new kid round here, I'm not allowed to start a new thread so I hope VJCPatriot doesn't mind a slight hijacking, albeit related, to his excellent thread.

This thread, amongst others, has narrowed my thinking on the draft and I'm finding my thoughts diverging somewhat from some conventions related to this draft. This has become apparent in two ways:

1. The lack of available DE's @17. ESPN has a "draft machine" with which you can submit your own first round mock. As I was running through the mock, I realised that a lot of the conventional prospects normally linked to the Pats @17 were disappearing quickly:

#8 Tennessee Titans - Cameron Jordan (Although Fairley and Bowers are still available, they both have potentially significant red flags. Jordan's versatility and college experience made him the pick.

#9 Dallas Cowboys - JJ Watt (Amukamara was still available but reports suggest the Cowboys aren't really interested. As for OT, they are looking at RT's and this is too high to pick one of them - Carimi is probably their player of choice. Their next position of need is a DE and JJ Watt looks to be the best fit here.

#11 Houston Texans - Ryan Kerrigan (They need a 3-4 pass rusher and by the time they pick in the second, the quality ones will be gone. Kerrigan is the choice because my limited research suggests the Texans prefer high character/effort four year players.

#14 St Louis Rams - Muhammad Wilkerson (This is the stinker. I had Julio Jones going to the Redskins @10 which means the Rams are going for the second option. By all accounts, that means DT. Now normally, most mocks in this scenario have the Rams picking Corey Liuget. I'm not so sure. Again, my research suggests that the Rams would prefer a containment DT rather than a gap penetrator and with Wilkerson shooting up Big Boards (Kiper has him at #10), he seems like the better bet.

So with the four players most likely to go to the Pats @17 already off the board, I ended up picking Tyron Smith. I think having Jordan, Watt and Wilkerson going before 17 is a real, and worrying possibility. The good news though, I got Heyward at #28.

----------

2. I'm also having a go at my own mock in which I'm including trades. One scenario I'm looking at is this. In my mock, I'm trying to find a trade down partner for the Redskins who are without third and fourth round picks. In this scenario, Watt and Wilkerson are available (Jordan goes to the Titans) but there aren't any real choicesof trading partners as the Rams have already traded up to #9 for Julio Jones. So I have the Patriots trading up, with #17, 74, 125 and the 'Skins accepting lesser value for Prince Amukamara. My reasoning: the Patriots don't often get the opportunity to draft a top ten player and the possibility of having two long term potential shut down corners is very appealing. Interestingly, the Patriots have had Amukamara in for a visit. Now they could trade up for Watt or Wilkinson, but with DE's like Heyward, Ellis or Jenkins available later, I'm not sure that's the best approach. In short, I'm quite taken with the idea of nabbing Amukamara for two later round picks.


If this 'hijack' is inappropriate, I apologise and please feel free to delete it. However, I'd love to know whether people think I'm totally off base with these scenarios or whether there is something there.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Some draft thoughts:

As a new kid round here, I'm not allowed to start a new thread so I hope VJCPatriot doesn't mind a slight hijacking, albeit related, to his excellent thread.

This thread, amongst others, has narrowed my thinking on the draft and I'm finding my thoughts diverging somewhat from some conventions related to this draft. This has become apparent in two ways:

1. The lack of available DE's @17. ESPN has a "draft machine" with which you can submit your own first round mock. As I was running through the mock, I realised that a lot of the conventional prospects normally linked to the Pats @17 were disappearing quickly:

#8 Tennessee Titans - Cameron Jordan (Although Fairley and Bowers are still available, they both have potentially significant red flags. Jordan's versatility and college experience made him the pick.

#9 Dallas Cowboys - JJ Watt (Amukamara was still available but reports suggest the Cowboys aren't really interested. As for OT, they are looking at RT's and this is too high to pick one of them - Carimi is probably their player of choice. Their next position of need is a DE and JJ Watt looks to be the best fit here.

#11 Houston Texans - Ryan Kerrigan (They need a 3-4 pass rusher and by the time they pick in the second, the quality ones will be gone. Kerrigan is the choice because my limited research suggests the Texans prefer high character/effort four year players.

#14 St Louis Rams - Muhammad Wilkerson (This is the stinker. I had Julio Jones going to the Redskins @10 which means the Rams are going for the second option. By all accounts, that means DT. Now normally, most mocks in this scenario have the Rams picking Corey Liuget. I'm not so sure. Again, my research suggests that the Rams would prefer a containment DT rather than a gap penetrator and with Wilkerson shooting up Big Boards (Kiper has him at #10), he seems like the better bet.

So with the four players most likely to go to the Pats @17 already off the board, I ended up picking Tyron Smith. I think having Jordan, Watt and Wilkerson going before 17 is a real, and worrying possibility. The good news though, I got Heyward at #28.

----------

2. I'm also having a go at my own mock in which I'm including trades. One scenario I'm looking at is this. In my mock, I'm trying to find a trade down partner for the Redskins who are without third and fourth round picks. In this scenario, Watt and Wilkerson are available (Jordan goes to the Titans) but there aren't any real choicesof trading partners as the Rams have already traded up to #9 for Julio Jones. So I have the Patriots trading up, with #17, 74, 125 and the 'Skins accepting lesser value for Prince Amukamara. My reasoning: the Patriots don't often get the opportunity to draft a top ten player and the possibility of having two long term potential shut down corners is very appealing. Interestingly, the Patriots have had Amukamara in for a visit. Now they could trade up for Watt or Wilkinson, but with DE's like Heyward, Ellis or Jenkins available later, I'm not sure that's the best approach. In short, I'm quite taken with the idea of nabbing Amukamara for two later round picks.


If this 'hijack' is inappropriate, I apologise and please feel free to delete it. However, I'd love to know whether people think I'm totally off base with these scenarios or whether there is something there.

The DE pessimism may be appropriate, but I think you are just a little too gloomy. Regarding Wilkerson, Coach Spagnola was the DL coach for NYG in the game which broke our hearts, he traded Carriker to Washington because he's best as a containment DE and isn't a good choice for a penetrating D-line. In this case the conventional wisdom on Liuget seems more realistic than your suggestin of Wilkerson. I'd actually expect Spags to draft Stephen Paea before he considered Wilkerson.

I'll disagree on a trade up for Amukamara, I think NE did their due diligence on him in the event he slides, but moving up into the Top 10 for him seems unlikely. Short of Von Miller or Marcel Dareus, I see no trade up target into the Top 10.

Welcome!

 

[patsinthesnow]

#17 Ryan Kerrigan DE, Purdue

#28 Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple

#33 Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor

(#60 and #92 for St Louis) #47 Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami

#74 Trade for someone's 2nd in 2012.

#123 Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State (my binky RB )

#156 Deunta Williams, FS, North Carolina

#184 Markus White, DE, Florida State