Veteran contract predictions, aggregated

[Fencer]

Lots of things to debate. Here are my guesses and predictions in one place.

1. The Pats will reach a long-term deal with Wilfork. It makes good football sense. Wilfork is on the field for as many downs as his stamina permits. (If there's one position where there's an excuse to have less than every down stamina, it's one where you get double-teamed every play by guys of comparable strength.) For that and other reasons, he's at least as effective on the Pats as he would be on other teams.

2. Richard Seymour will stay in Oakland. He's about the money now.

3. Randy Moss will play out 2010 without a contract, amicably, and likely be re-signed. Moss can probably handle the Pats telling him the truth, which is "You're declining due to age. We're waiting to see how slow or fast the decline is. We expect to find that it's slow, and that you'll still be a top receiver for several more years."

4. One of Mankins and Neal will go, one will stay. Better a year early than a year late on Neal, and Mankins may cost a lot. But replacing both at once is forbidding.

5. Ben Watson will go. It just didn't click for him here as a receiver, and the Pats don't pay up for TEs that are very good at blocking or receiving and merely so-so at the other.

6. Adalius Thomas will be traded. He has low value on his remaining contract, especially after being somewhat of a malcontent. (I say "somewhat" because he stayed professional in his game preparation, etc.) But I'm guessing it's not quite zero.

7. TBC will stay. He's simply a better football player on the Pats than elsewhere. And after Boston and his home area of SF, I doubt there's a third city he'd as much like to live in.

8. Bodden will go. The finances -- including the matter of young depth behind him threatening his job -- will look better someplace else.

9. Springs will go. Why not?

10. The Pats will pay up for a veteran rusher one more time -- even though Colvin and Thomas didn't work out that well.

11. Brady will get extended. What other FA would want to play here if Brady left? He needs to be officially extended.

 

[emoney_33]

I agree with most of these, my only comments would be.

6. I can't for the life of me get a read on what they think of Adalius and what kind of value will be out there in trade for him. I won't be surprised no matter how it turns out.

8. My gut is telling me that you are correct and he'll go, but I still have hope that the two sides can agree to a good deal.

 

[woolster22]

Max tender Mank, part ways with Neal and hope Kaczur/Rookie can hold down the RG spot. I am not so sure BB will want to bring Moss back for 2011, unless for mentor purposes of one of the Fab-4s with Oaklands pick next year. Even of he wants to, will he be willing to pay as much as some other teams for the 34 year old services? Someone always seems to pay TO, and Moss is far from the primadonna that terd is... I am not sure what to expect with AD. I got the impression that he was a good presence for the team in 07...WTF happened? My gut tells me his is sent to some crap team (see.....Oak, Det, Cleveland) for a late pick, or some gatorade powder, whatever we can get.

 

[JackBauer]

Agree with most, but I see Bodden staying.

 

[slash83]

Agree with most, but I see Bodden staying.

Im hopeful Bodden stays, Bodden is comfortable with the system and I feel BB is comfortable with him as well.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Nice summary Fencer.....my 2 cents below:

Springs - not sure why he would go anywhere. He has 1 or 2 years left on his contract. And the contract is not that prohibitive for a decent vet CB. If you look at his recent history - he is quite injury prone which is why I believe he was not getting much game action during the season. Thus keeping his old body fresh for the end of the season / playoffs plus give game reps to the younsters. Furthermore, what I read is he is good at teaching his knowledge to the other DB's.

Thomas - I agree he will be traded away - no matter how low the draft pick. I could even see him going for a 6th rounder as Bill will do whatever it takes to trade him away so he doesnt end up on the Jets (which likely would happen if he was cut).

I am hoping you are correct on the other issues (TBC resigns). I think you are right on about Boddin - his FA contract will be too expensive to keep (and so his spot will be given to Butler). Anyway I could see Pats drafting another CB with one of their top 4 picks as neither Wheatley nor Whilite seem to be more than slot CB's at best. So they need to bring another young CB 'into the pipeline' to groom.

Hopefully VW re-signs but I just don't see Pats forking over the $$$. Not because they are 'cheap' but because they just don't want to expose themselves to a large contract - when the rules for whatever the next CBA will be - are unknown at this time. They have actually said as much. It is all about the economic principle: exposure. There is only one player who they would do this for and that is the franchaise : TB. And I expect they will drag their feet on this for as long as possible get a better idea on the parameters of the next CBA will be.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I mostly agree, with a couple of caveats:

1) Seymour's getting franchised, so of course he's staying in Oakland. Not sure what that means in regards to him being "about the money" any more than, say, Bodden or Wilfork.

2) I think we're going to come to terms with Bodden. If his demands are reasonable, I don't see why the Pats wouldn't get him locked up.

 

[TealSox]

1. The Pats will reach a long-term deal with Wilfork. Hopefully your are right, but I am just not that optimistic. Sure, they traded away Seymour and made it clear who they preferred to pay long-term, but (much like your assessment of Leigh Bodden) I think the Pats have prepared themselves for Wilfork leaving (by drafting Ron Brace). Not to mention, this years draft offers a few NTs that would soften the fall (Cody and Williams esp).

2. Richard Seymour will stay in Oakland. Can't see why the Raiders wouldn't tag him and in turn watch him sign elsewhere a year from now. They invested too much to make him a one year rental and may think that he might have a change of heart come 2011.

3. Randy Moss will play out 2010 without a contract, amicably, and likely be re-signed. Moss can accept the fact he isn't going to get extended this year and I can see him have as much value as a free agent as LT will have on the market this year. That said (Curb Your Enthusiasm), I think he would rather sign elsewhere out of spite than take equal/less from the Pats in 2011.

4. One of Mankins and Neal will go, one will stay. Bye bye Neal. 2010 draft will include a guard to replace him.

5. Ben Watson will go. I thought it would had been interesting to tag him as well, given the fact teams (in an uncapped year) have two tags, but what is the point. He did nothing great for the Pats and would be move valuable leaving in free agency and landing the Pats a Comp pick in 2011.

6. Adalius Thomas will be traded. Clearly. Still trying to figure out what the Raiders would give up for him.

7. TBC will stay. Agreed. BB needs as many veterans that understand the system as he can get. Drafting a replacement, no matter how talented, could not exceed TBC's ability to contributions.

8. Bodden will go. A statement will be made here. Either BB/Kraft admit they need to pay a corner or they go the cheap route and rely on their youth, albeit stubbornly. Bodden likely came into this season with one foot out the door, hence the one year contract with a team that would showcase his abilities as a starter. Pats need him more than he needs the Pats going forward.

9. Springs will go. Will be released come July.

10. The Pats will pay up for a veteran rusher one more time -- Burgess, the sequel.

11. Brady will get extended. Great. BB wants to make the move to a "more" run oriented offense while making Brady one of the five highest paid QBs. Makes no sense. Paying somebody for what they did in the past isn't Bill's style. Keeping Brady long term tells me he thinks Brady has a few good years still in him and will actually tap into his ability to move the ball around the field. This whole "move to a run oriented offense" seems like BS.

 

[fair catch fryar]

Can't the Pats use the RFA tag on Mankins increasing the likelihood of him staying and/or receiving a hefty return if someone was to sign him?

 

[Rob0729]

Lots of things to debate. Here are my guesses and predictions in one place.

1. The Pats will reach a long-term deal with Wilfork. It makes good football sense. Wilfork is on the field for as many downs as his stamina permits. (If there's one position where there's an excuse to have less than every down stamina, it's one where you get double-teamed every play by guys of comparable strength.) For that and other reasons, he's at least as effective on the Pats as he would be on other teams.

I don't think it will happen. I am guessing that Wilfork will look for $35-40 million in guarantees which is far too much for him. I would see the Pats trading him for a sweetheart trade before a new deal.

2. Richard Seymour will stay in Oakland. He's about the money now.

The Raiders have to franchise him. He isn't going anywhere.

3. Randy Moss will play out 2010 without a contract, amicably, and likely be re-signed. Moss can probably handle the Pats telling him the truth, which is "You're declining due to age. We're waiting to see how slow or fast the decline is. We expect to find that it's slow, and that you'll still be a top receiver for several more years."

Moss' last season with the Pats will be 2010. I think Moss will want to get paid and the Pats will want to give him a value deal. Woudln't be shocked if he was traded this year if the Pats could acquire one of the bigger name RFA WRs like Vincent Jackson.

4. One of Mankins and Neal will go, one will stay. Better a year early than a year late on Neal, and Mankins may cost a lot. But replacing both at once is forbidding.

Mankins isn't going anywhere. He will get the highest RFA tender. Neal might go, but he might not get much play on the open market because of his age and injury history.

5. Ben Watson will go. It just didn't click for him here as a receiver, and the Pats don't pay up for TEs that are very good at blocking or receiving and merely so-so at the other.

Someone else will pay Watson based on his physical talent. I agree he won't be here. Could see him in KC.

6. Adalius Thomas will be traded. He has low value on his remaining contract, especially after being somewhat of a malcontent. (I say "somewhat" because he stayed professional in his game preparation, etc.) But I'm guessing it's not quite zero.

The only reason he is still on the team is that the Pats cannot get rid of him until the next football year because of cap reasons. He is a goner.

7. TBC will stay. He's simply a better football player on the Pats than elsewhere. And after Boston and his home area of SF, I doubt there's a third city he'd as much like to live in.

I give it about 60-40. I still think Cleveland, KC, or Denver might make a run at him.

8. Bodden will go. The finances -- including the matter of young depth behind him threatening his job -- will look better someplace else.

I think Bodden will stay. The Pats want him. Bodden wants to stay. I think they get a deal done.

9. Springs will go. Why not?

Not sold on that just yet. He is not making huge money and he did play well when he was out there. He might be kept for one more year.

10. The Pats will pay up for a veteran rusher one more time -- even though Colvin and Thomas didn't work out that well.

I personally don't think Colvin worked out bad. He was productive when healthy and looked to be everything as advertised in the limited exposure we got before he broke his hip. I don't think you can say the signing didn't work out well since injuries were the issue there. Can't control injuries.

I do agree the Pats will be agressive to get a pass rusher. I think it will be Peppers, but don't be surprised if they try to make a trade for Dumerville.

11. Brady will get extended.

What other FA would want to play here if Brady left? He needs to be officially extended.

He will probably be extended.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Lots of things to debate. Here are my guesses and predictions in one place.

1. The Pats will reach a long-term deal with Wilfork. It makes good football sense. Wilfork is on the field for as many downs as his stamina permits. (If there's one position where there's an excuse to have less than every down stamina, it's one where you get double-teamed every play by guys of comparable strength.) For that and other reasons, he's at least as effective on the Pats as he would be on other teams.

2. Richard Seymour will stay in Oakland. He's about the money now.

3. Randy Moss will play out 2010 without a contract, amicably, and likely be re-signed. Moss can probably handle the Pats telling him the truth, which is "You're declining due to age. We're waiting to see how slow or fast the decline is. We expect to find that it's slow, and that you'll still be a top receiver for several more years."

4. One of Mankins and Neal will go, one will stay. Better a year early than a year late on Neal, and Mankins may cost a lot. But replacing both at once is forbidding.

5. Ben Watson will go. It just didn't click for him here as a receiver, and the Pats don't pay up for TEs that are very good at blocking or receiving and merely so-so at the other.

6. Adalius Thomas will be traded. He has low value on his remaining contract, especially after being somewhat of a malcontent. (I say "somewhat" because he stayed professional in his game preparation, etc.) But I'm guessing it's not quite zero.

7. TBC will stay. He's simply a better football player on the Pats than elsewhere. And after Boston and his home area of SF, I doubt there's a third city he'd as much like to live in.

8. Bodden will go. The finances -- including the matter of young depth behind him threatening his job -- will look better someplace else.

9. Springs will go. Why not?

10. The Pats will pay up for a veteran rusher one more time -- even though Colvin and Thomas didn't work out that well.

11. Brady will get extended. What other FA would want to play here if Brady left? He needs to be officially extended.

1. The Patriots will reach a long term deal with Wilfork once Bianca realizes the implications of the uncapped year and the lockout year and that $20 some million guaranteed and $29M total value is better than $7M and WTF... If the big guy wants to vent about being placed in lousy leverage situations his entire career, he should call 1-800-NFLPA and ask to speak to Gene...oh wait.

2. Richard has always been about the money. Lawyer raised him well. That's the risk retaining self-absorbed negative leadership poses. Often by the time you identify them the insidious, long term damage is done.

3. Randy Moss will play out 2010 without a contract extenion. Amicably if we're winning and he's the focus, not so amicably if not. Then as he has already stated he will be looking for another team to pay him post any lockout. He will likely end his career as a high profile JAG like TO and Ty Law apparently chasing the money and their stage.

4. Mankins is not going anywhere since he is an RFA and he will get the top tender which is still a relative bargain for a starting pro bowl LG. The decision on extending him will be postponed until we get past the labor uncertainty. Neal will likely end up back here on a one year deal unless BB has decided what he brings is less significant than the instability his lack of durability poses and it's time to move on.

5. Watson is gone. Could have done better with a 1st, but at least he always tried and we'll always have the run down of Champ after he missed the block that led to the pick to remember...

6. Adalius will be traded for a conditional pick if there are any takers. If he wants to facilitate a trade he may agree to restructure. Otherwise he will be released once camp starts.

7. TBC will be extended because he almost was in season...unless the reason he wasn't was a change of heart on the teams side. Can't imagine he wants to try and crack another roster after what happened last time, when this time there won't be silly money flying around.

8. Bodden will stay for the same reason although he may test the market for quite a while as he did last season.

9. If Springs goes it will be because he was part of the locker room problem and not enough of an on field solution for a guy signed primarily as a veteran leader (like anyone from DC would be...).

10 The Pats will persue a pass rusher in the draft or in trade in addition to re-signing TBC and Burgess to short term or option deals. They will not sign Peppers or trade for Merriman or any other overhyped problem child.

11. They will get Brady's extension done before camp opens. It will be a 6 year deal they can restructure (even adding another year) to fit the new cap landscape after 2011. It won't appear as outlandish as Mannings but it will surpass the first three take of the rest of the top tier. Barring catestrophic injury, he will retire from the NEP when it is done, sometime around 2015-16, while still performing at an above average level.

12. Bill will draft a WR in the second round and a WR in the later rounds or as UDFA's and start developing them. He will possibly trade for a RFA WR. He will draft a receiving TE to develop as a blocker and scour the waiver wire for a motivated veteran TE who can hopefully do a little of both and a savvy veteran WR with a little something left in the tank and something left to prove.

13. He will re-sign Faulk and play the hand he still holds at RB in 2010.

14. He will use multiple day 1 and 2 draft picks on both sides of the LOS. In a deep defensive draft he may trade back in the first or out of it to add day 2 picks. Many here will lose it if he does and that alone will make it worthwhile...

15. Welker will be back in week 7, Tate will emerge and Edleman will continue to develop.

16. We will draft a QB in the 7th or pick up an UDFA and it won't say anything about Brady or Hoyer beyond Bill wants to take advantage of the opportunity to develop QB's under Brady's tutelage to use as competent potential backups and value trading chips.

17. Hope to god we can finally upgrade at punter in an uncapped season...

 

[Fencer]

My errors included:

Forgetting Mankins is an RFA.
Forgetting to mention Faulk (he stays).
Forgetting that Springs is still under contract (somewhat increases the chance that he stays).
Forgetting the need for a better punter.